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  • #2,181
  • Jun 17, 2025 5:49am Jun 17, 2025 5:49am
Good day!
War News is driving the market. No TA is correct or wrong.
War on is bad for equities; war off/de-escalation is good.
GL!
  • #2,182
  • Jun 19, 2025 8:31am Jun 19, 2025 8:31am
Quoting Fadhl
Good day! War News is driving the market. No TA is correct or wrong. War on is bad for equities; war off/de-escalation is good. GL!
Hello Fadhl
Are you all well? I hope so.
I miss your posts, they have helped me a lot.
Kind regards
Julio Bento
  • #2,183
  • Jun 19, 2025 11:24am Jun 19, 2025 11:24am
Quoting jjibl
{quote} Hello Fadhl Are you all well? I hope so. I miss your posts, they have helped me a lot. Kind regards Julio Bento
Thanks for asking!
Two weeks ago, I mentioned that I'll be low profile during the Summer as I'm actually on vacation. So I'm not following closely the market.
Will try to make a daily update.
So far, nothing really changed:
1- FED did not cut rate in June as expected; FED might cut in September; FED will continue to be data related; The latest macro-economic data are bad. FED is waiting for July 4th, the end of the 90-day tariff pause, the end of the first liberation day period.
2- Trump maintains the UNCERTAINTY with flip flop on tariffs. July 4th might announce the 2nd liberation day with 10% tariffs for all countries or most probably another extension of the 90-day pause.
3- The war is fading out from market interest but we must keep open eyes as we don't know how it's going to end. The close of the Strait of Hormuz is critical for market.

Without risk of war, equities were supposed to reach a new ATH based on the softening of inflation data (latest CPI and PPI).
This said, my bias for equity outlook is Sell.
The last three days, NQ price is inside daily bar (red dotted lines), reflecting market uncertainty. Today's close is a down breakout which is supposed to mean that we're going south. However today is a holiday in US, low liquidity; hence we can't really rely on it.
Hope, this is helpful.
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  • #2,184
  • Jun 20, 2025 3:19am Jun 20, 2025 3:19am
Good day!
Opex Day! We should expect high volatility and Summer decisions until September.
We have two scenarios:
1- Price retrace back to LBO (yellow box) and goes South. If today's close and weekly close will be bearish, this direction will last with us until September.
2- Price retrace back to LBO and breakout TL and goes North. In this case, the daily and weekly will be bullish. The direction during the Summer will be up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Have a green day/week
  • #2,185
  • Jun 20, 2025 8:01am Jun 20, 2025 8:01am
Thanks
Best regards
  • #2,186
  • Jun 22, 2025 3:00am Jun 22, 2025 3:00am
Quoting Fadhl
Good day! War News is driving the market. No TA is correct or wrong. War on is bad for equities; war off/de-escalation is good. GL!
Good week!
We're here
Consider today's opening price with the week week close.
NQ should open with a huge gap down.
  • #2,187
  • Jun 22, 2025 3:34am Jun 22, 2025 3:34am
Iran-Israel-USA war is on the driver seat. After USA strikes, Iran will increase the retaliation and the war will stay with us during the Summer.
Involvement of other countries is almost NIL Strait of Hormuz might be affected and closed. This will have a huge impact on the market. All other outcomes will fade out and be ignored by the market as soon as the war becomes an ongoing war.
TA Analysis:
Weekly TF:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The weekly close was irrelevant, inside the previous weekly closes. But the expected opening gap down will make the weekly close very bearish.
Hence a continuation down is expected.
Daily TF:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The daily close was bearish, but inside the previous daily close.
Same as weekly, the gap will make the direction very clear.
1- If Iran does not retaliate massively, we will see a retrace up. This scenario has a little chance because it will signal the end of Iran.
2- A massive retaliation is expected against Israel, not USA to avoid a direct war with USA.
Happy week Everyone!
  • #2,188
  • Jun 22, 2025 4:03am Jun 22, 2025 4:03am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Good week! We're here Consider today's opening price with the week week close. NQ should open with a huge gap down.
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  • #2,189
  • Jun 23, 2025 2:33am Jun 23, 2025 2:33am
Quoting Fadhl
Iran-Israel-USA war is on the driver seat. After USA strikes, Iran will increase the retaliation and the war will stay with us during the Summer. Involvement of other countries is almost NIL Strait of Hormuz might be affected and closed. This will have a huge impact on the market. All other outcomes will fade out and be ignored by the market as soon as the war becomes an ongoing war. TA Analysis: Weekly TF: {image} The weekly close was irrelevant, inside the previous weekly closes. But the expected opening gap down will make the weekly close very...
Good day!
Scenario 1 is in play!
The gap down was exactly within the identified area. Asian session retraced and the gap is closed.
The weekly close becomes bearish from irrelevant.
NY session will give the real move.
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Have a good day!
  • #2,190
  • Jun 24, 2025 4:10am Jun 24, 2025 4:10am
The war is in the back seat now. A "ceasefire" is underway and the circus of USA-Iran strikes ended.
NQ is seeking a new ATH.
Currently price is still within the consolidation area. The narrative will return back to tariffs. July 4th is the 2nd Liberation Day for Trump to show off.
In terms of trading opportunities, Nothing really to trade, price is very high close to ATH and making new HH. You should wait for a HL a jump in the buy side.
To sell, no trade until price makes LL followed by LH.
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Have a good day
  • #2,191
  • Jun 26, 2025 4:37am Jun 26, 2025 4:37am
Good day!
Thanks to NVDA, NQ has made a new ATH. Nothing really to do: price is very high to buy and no signal to sell.
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  • #2,192
  • Jun 26, 2025 8:58am Jun 26, 2025 8:58am
US data confirmed the recession status. Price made LL-LH and breakout and retested the 5min opening range.
I got in the sell side.
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  • #2,193
  • Jun 26, 2025 10:21am Jun 26, 2025 10:21am
Quoting Fadhl
US data confirmed the recession status. Price made LL-LH and breakout and retested the 5min opening range. I got in the sell side. {image}
Stopped!
  • #2,194
  • Jun 26, 2025 11:26am Jun 26, 2025 11:26am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Stopped!
again and again
  • #2,195
  • Jun 26, 2025 1:40pm Jun 26, 2025 1:40pm
Quoting Doc'
{quote} again and again
Are you happy? Did you take the opposite trade?
You can move on or share your ideas... Make your decision...
  • #2,196
  • Edited Jun 27, 2025 6:57am Jun 26, 2025 1:51pm | Edited Jun 27, 2025 6:57am
Hello Hombre!

Sure I did, you are my Cramer's Nasdaq best follow up
  • #2,197
  • Jun 27, 2025 6:12am Jun 27, 2025 6:12am
This shit wont stop going up eh?
  • #2,198
  • Jun 27, 2025 6:12am Jun 27, 2025 6:12am
Quoting Doc'
Hello Hombre! Sure I did, you are my Cramer's Nasdaq best follow up
Proof that you took the opposite trade! Share a screenshot...
  • #2,199
  • Edited 6:31am Jun 27, 2025 6:19am | Edited 6:31am
Good day!
NQ made a new ATH fueled by China-USA tariff deal. A retrace is due.
US Inflation data is coming and it's very relevant data.
1- An overshoot Inflation will provide an FA reason for a retrace;
2- An undershoot Inflation will fuel up NQ for a massive and strong Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly green candle.
3- An inline data inflation will provide a zigzag: up then down.
Have a good day!
  • #2,200
  • Jun 27, 2025 6:29am Jun 27, 2025 6:29am
Quoting sanity
This shit wont stop going up eh?
NQ, equities and stocks are always up because Investors who buy stocks are always interested by a higher price. Unless major fundamental change (i.e., Tariffs on; recession at the beginning phase), NQ and all equities won't have a change of structure. Buy has a least resistance.
Keep in mind, with major fundamental change, FED and all CBs will print free money...
My initial ST/MT/LT Outlook was SELL because of tariffs. By the way, this factor is still with us until the end of the 90-day pause where Trump will decide:
- Another pause period;
- 10% tariffs for all;
- Or something else.
He's the king of the 2nd Liberation day.
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