🔱binary options probability v1

Statistical Time-Based Indicator – Directional Candle
This indicator analyzes all candles from the past month (30 days) on the current timeframe, identifying at which exact time (hour and minute) bullish or bearish candles occur most frequently. Based on this data, it emits real-time BUY (CALL) or SELL (PUT) signals whenever the behavioral repetition reaches the configured percentage.
The statistical logic is based on exact hour and minute. For example, if at 14:15 over the last 30 days there were 80% bullish candles, and the previous candle was bearish, the indicator triggers a CALL signal on the chart with:
A green arrow showing the BUY point
A sound alert
A popup message displaying "CALL"
Similarly, if more than 80% of the candles were bearish at a given time and the previous candle was bullish, the indicator will show a red arrow, play a sound, and display the message "PUT".
The minimum percentage threshold to trigger signals can be adjusted directly in the indicator settings (default is 80%). You can lower it to 70%, 60%, or increase it, depending on your strategy’s risk profile.
How to use it in Binary Options:
The signal is generated on candle 0, meaning at the exact moment the current candle starts.
The trader should execute the order immediately at the opening of candle 0, as the historical data indicates a high probability of repeating the same movement (up or down) at that specific time.
Since the indicator dynamically adapts to the actual statistical behavior of the market, it acts like a smart memory, highlighting only those times with strong historical repetition patterns.
This type of tool is extremely useful for binary options traders, especially for 1-candle expiration strategies, as the signals are filtered based on recent and statistically proven market behavior.
Perfect for:

1. Time-based reversal or continuation strategies
2. Specific sessions (like London or New York open)
3. Bots and automations that use buffer-based signal entries

Settings Adjusted
I reduced the probability filter to just 5% and manually added a 3-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) based on the Open price to the chart, aiming to identify faster trading opportunities.


Signal Filtering
Although many signals are generated, I only focus on:
Buy signals above the moving average
Sell signals below the moving average
…that occurred in only 5% of the cases over the last 30 days.

Great Results
The results are excellent for those who trade binary options!

Want to chat with me?
Send me a message on Telegram @smartdesig3r

With the filter set at 5% configured on the indicator, many signals arise, but by adding the moving average, it is possible to filter the best signals.
In the case of the image, I waited until a sell signal occurred below the moving average.

This signal did not occur exactly below the moving average, but since it happened exactly above it, I decided to open an order.
I made the minimum deposit with the broker to conduct tests on the real account.
Let's see how everything flows in the coming days.

Once again a sell signal occurs below the moving average.
For a moment I thought we would have a loss because the candle shot up, but quickly retraced and followed its expected path.

I am just 1 order away from doubling the initial value.
If I do this every day, I will achieve a considerable amount of earnings.

This wraps up our trading session for today, where my goal was to double the initial amount of $60.
Even though the candle started exactly on the moving average line (not below it), I saw a good opportunity. I've noticed in historical data that candles which open exactly on the moving average often follow the direction of the signal arrow.

While I don’t consider this setup to be highly reliable, it can still work. The most profitable and clear strategy, in my opinion, is to take buy signals when the price is above the moving average and sell signals when the price is below it – a simple and easy-to-read setup that leaves no room for doubt.
Although the candle closed as a bullish candle on MetaTrader 4, it ended as a bearish candle on IQ Option, which actually favored our trade and helped us hit today’s goal.

This is the first time an indicator has given me such clarity and peace of mind, without that usual weight of doubt – wondering whether I'm trading correctly. I truly believe this will make my daily routine easier and give me more freedom to execute my plans. In under 1 hour of trading, I reached my target! Now let's see how the next session goes – later tonight or tomorrow when I return to trading.

Do you have any suggestions or questions about this indicator?
Talk to me on Telegram: @smartdesig3r

I'm currently analyzing how the indicator performs on higher timeframes and evaluating its effectiveness even for users who may want to trade more slowly or in other markets like Forex.
Since the EUR/USD asset in binary options is currently closed on the IQ Option broker I'm using, I wasn’t able to execute the trades signaled by the indicator.
However, I'm still tracking the results, checking for improvements and new opportunities.
In the image below, you can see 3 trade signals that occurred on the 15-minute timeframe, all of which were successful so far, as shown in the screenshot:



Now take a look at the 30-minute timeframe, where we also had some great trading opportunities:



On the 1-hour timeframe, there were also two solid opportunities detected by the indicator.



All the cataloging above was carried out today, starting from 11:00 AM (London time), using this moment as the reference point for analysis across the different timeframes.

Without a doubt, probability analysis generates excellent opportunities—something I denied for a long time due to the technical knowledge I had built over the years.
It sounds a bit crazy, almost like a contradiction, because the very thing I always ignored is now starting to look like the light at the end of the tunnel.
As we know, binary options are not simple, nor an easy task.
Some people manage to find success through extremely strict risk management...

But let’s be honest: the vast majority of people will never be able to follow such discipline consistently.
And let’s face it—no one comes to this kind of market just to make a few extra dollars to pay small bills.
Of course, even that is already amazing in itself—a source of income for covering those unexpected expenses.

But when we enter this market, we all have one main goal:
To make a lot of money—far beyond what we can imagine or expect—
To gain above-average freedom, to buy the things we desire, and to live out dreams that most people only dare to think about.
There’s definitely no easy path to get there. That’s why building a study journey is essential—
Just like the one I’m sharing here in this forum, like a development diary full of tests and reflections,
and most importantly, a pursuit of continuous improvement over time.

I believe I’m on the right path. After all, the first results have already arrived,
and now I want to keep going, finding more effective ways to follow this journey
and improve this technique-turned-indicator, which so far has helped a lot by making visible things that were once easy to overlook.

I’ve been working on this for many days now, and I must confess:
In some of these days, with the overload of information, the errors, and the many discarded codes after hours of effort,
I’ve faced sleepless nights, lost appetite, and had moments of feeling like I was not capable of creating something that could truly bring meaning...
...a feeling of defeat or self-doubt, questioning whether I could actually create something that delivers a true sense of victory—
something that brings at least a bit of security in the middle of all this effort.

Every time I log into binary options platforms, I see that there are millions of users—
and the vast majority of them are just trying to earn enough to meet their basic needs.
I truly hope that, throughout this journey, I can earn my place in the sun,
and eventually deliver something genuinely useful for the many future users who may come to use this indicator...

A tool that not only simplifies decision-making,
but one that becomes a small part of someone’s bigger story—
A story of transformation, freedom, and results that finally make the struggle worthwhile.

THE INDICATOR IS NOW AVAILABLE ON MQL5!
The indicator has been uploaded to the MQL5 website so that anyone can test it personally and see how it performs.
If you'd like to try this tool for yourself:
Go to the MQL5 website
Create a free account
Download the indicator directly to your MetaTrader 4
Start using it on your charts
It's a great way to explore and validate the indicator’s performance in your own trading routine!

Binary Options Probability v1.ex4

We're heading toward another victory!
I truly believe we now have an amazing tool to trade binary options, my friends.
With the right strategy and consistency, this indicator can be a powerful ally in your trading journey.
Keep testing, keep analyzing, and most importantly—trust the process.

There's no secret!
By adjusting the probability filter to just 5%, I simply waited for a candle to open below the 3-period Moving Average (Open)...
...and as soon as a signal arrow appeared at the beginning of the candle, I took the trade.
It's the kind of opportunity I never let slip away.

We're heading toward another victory —
This time on the 15-minute timeframe (M15)!
The strategy continues to deliver consistent results. Let's keep the momentum going!

Another opportunity has appeared,
this time on the 30-minute timeframe (M30).
I'm not entirely confident about this entry, as it coincides with the opening of the U.S. market, which often pushes price rapidly in one direction.
However, I'll stick to the strategy with discipline,
because I know that in the long run, my balance will remain positive thanks to the effectiveness I've been observing over the past few days.

This trade didn’t go our way...
We were left hanging for just one candle — so close, yet it didn’t work out.
But that’s part of the game. Not every entry will be a winner, and that’s okay.
Consistency and long-term discipline are what really make the difference.

The 1-minute timeframe (M1) is always a great and fast option for quick trades.

Another opportunity on the 1-minute timeframe (M1)!
Right after opening the order at the beginning of the candle,
the price pulled back slightly, giving me an even better entry point for more buy positions.
Moments like this reinforce the importance of precision and timing in fast timeframes.