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(binned per thread starter’s request) reversionX: A Rule-Based

  • #441
  • Jun 24, 2025 7:28am Jun 24, 2025 7:28am
Quoting Eskyflyer
Three breakeven trades today during the London session. Got out from the AUDUSD trade as I did not like how price was behaving around the basis line. As soon as I closed the trade, price ran up to SL. {image} {image} {image}
THEOREITCALY comprsi could filter that buy entry
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BUT! Attention:

1. It also filters | ignores all this upternd (because it's just one more lagging indicator)
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2. Minute ago I've seen by my eyes redline moved a little bit higher (with all the current segment under 40)
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Repaint?
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #442
  • Jun 24, 2025 7:44am Jun 24, 2025 7:44am
A little bit texting:

Very-very basicaly "reversionX" is almost equal "M1 Countertrend Scalping Strategy": when price is far away from MA (middle BB) and showing some reversal signs - it's a trigger. But here we filter using oscillators, there people use intuition Here we have SL&TP system, there people love gambling, oversitting in huge drawdowns and demo accounts screenshots )))) So thank you, rishee (https://www.forexfactory.com/rishee), for so adequate ideas! No jokes.


But!
The main problem of BB-based counter trend systems is different then MA-based. In strong trends every pullback looks like a reversal AND, after 2-3 such pullbacks in a row, oscillators are ready to confirm that it's a reversal but it's still a pullback. This way we have another SL.

Several structural filters like "avoid levels from yesterday or the previous week" are good - no doubt. But let's look on todays AUDCHF: the first sell signal was away form such lines, not a very strong trend, overloaded oscillators - we have consecutive fake signals.

Ideas?
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #443
  • Jun 24, 2025 7:47am Jun 24, 2025 7:47am
Nice setup on oil lets see how it plays...

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There is no holy grail in trading – only discipline, consistency and edge.
  • #444
  • Edited 8:10am Jun 24, 2025 7:58am | Edited 8:10am
Quoting since80808
The main problem of BB-based counter trend systems...
Ideas:
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Contras: SL beyond the nearest swing becomes bigger - it's not a problem. The problem is huge TP if we still calculate it as 2xSL.
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #445
  • Jun 24, 2025 8:00am Jun 24, 2025 8:00am
Quoting since80808
{quote} THEOREITCALY comprsi could filter that buy entry {image} BUT! Attention: 1. It also filters | ignores all this upternd (because it's just one more lagging indicator) {image} 2. Minute ago I've seen by my eyes redline moved a little bit higher (with all the current segment under 40) {image} Repaint?
I was testing it out and I noted that it filters out alot of good trades as well so... but thanks!
  • #446
  • Jun 24, 2025 8:23am Jun 24, 2025 8:23am
Nevermind ))
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I'm afraid oil is much news-manipulated instrument theese days, so TA is not fully appliable now.
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #447
  • Jun 24, 2025 8:27am Jun 24, 2025 8:27am
Quoting since80808
A little bit texting: Very-very basicaly "reversionX" is almost equal "M1 Countertrend Scalping Strategy": when price is far away from MA (middle BB) and showing some reversal signs - it's a trigger. But here we filter using oscillators, there people use intuition Here we have SL&TP system, there people love gambling, oversitting in huge drawdowns and demo accounts screenshots )))) So thank you, rishee (https://www.forexfactory.com/rishee), for so adequate ideas! No jokes. But! The main problem of BB-based counter trend...
Thank you so much for the thoughtful input @since80808. I really appreciate you taking the time to share your perspective. I haven’t explored the M1 countertrend strategy you mentioned, but I’ll definitely take a look. As for me, using a stop loss and take profit is non-negotiable. Before I even consider entering a trade, I need a clear plan for how I’m going to manage it — if I don’t have that, I simply skip the trade.

Now, I don’t want to sound like I’m preaching — you clearly know your stuff — and I completely agree with your point about pullbacks in trending markets. That’s a very real flaw in most mean reversion systems. But the way I approach it is slightly different. As Mark Douglas said, “Trading is a game of probabilities, not certainties.” Just because price hits the Bollinger Band doesn’t mean it has to reverse — it just means the odds of a reversal are higher. The losses that come from fakeouts or continuation moves are simply part of the statistical outcome. For me, it’s not about trying to avoid losses entirely — because they’re inevitable, no matter the system — but about executing with discipline over a large sample of trades. Let’s say out of 10 trades, I win 4, break even on 2, and lose 4. If the winning trades are well-executed and hit 2R targets, the math still works. That’s where my focus is — on nailing those clean setups when they come and managing the rest with consistency.

We could add something like a 200 EMA filter — only taking longs above it and shorts below. That might help, but again, there's no guarantee. So instead of trying to eliminate losing trades, I’d rather look at them collectively over 50 or 100 trades and ask, “What patterns do I notice?” Maybe I’ll find that most losing trades were taken too close to the basis line, or that for certain pairs like gold, a 1.5R target works better than 2R. That kind of data-driven refinement can turn a 50–55% win rate into 60% — which is outstanding for a mean reversion system.
There is no holy grail in trading – only discipline, consistency and edge.
  • #448
  • Jun 24, 2025 8:29am Jun 24, 2025 8:29am
Quoting rishee
Nice setup on oil lets see how it plays... {image}
Beautiful trade ... take profit hit...2R Done for the day.. i shared two trades live here.. hopefully someone took along with me
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There is no holy grail in trading – only discipline, consistency and edge.
  • #449
  • Jun 24, 2025 9:03am Jun 24, 2025 9:03am
hi Rishee

how to place your orders quickly after confirmation to get order placed just at the open of the candle?
  • #450
  • Jun 24, 2025 9:10am Jun 24, 2025 9:10am
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Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #451
  • Jun 24, 2025 9:19am Jun 24, 2025 9:19am
Quoting rishee
instead of trying to eliminate losing trades
Sure, overfiltering is not a way.
Have you played already with moving SL to BE, for example when price is 1:1?
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #452
  • Jun 24, 2025 9:24am Jun 24, 2025 9:24am
Quoting hope&glory
hi Rishee how to place your orders quickly after confirmation to get order placed just at the open of the candle?
I usually enter right after the candle closes — sometimes I get great fills, other times they’re terrible, just like anyone else.
There is no holy grail in trading – only discipline, consistency and edge.
  • #453
  • Jun 24, 2025 9:30am Jun 24, 2025 9:30am
Quoting since80808
{quote} Sure, overfiltering is not a way. Have you played already with moving SL to BE, for example when price is 1:1?
Yeah, I do that — and I actually encourage others to use it too, at least while getting comfortable with the structure and the strategy. That said, I don’t move SL to breakeven on every trade. I like to give the trade some breathing room, especially if the higher timeframe aligns or there are clear divergences supporting the move.
The reason I didn’t include that as a core rule is because it’s mostly discretionary and depends a lot on price action context and the risk appetite. If you observe I give two outcomes in break down one is conservative which moves SL to BE after 1r and other is aggressive where there are only two outcomes -1r or 2r unless an opposite signal is conformed.
There is no holy grail in trading – only discipline, consistency and edge.
  • #454
  • Jun 24, 2025 9:33am Jun 24, 2025 9:33am
Another trade which I was looking at but didn't enter though.. but a nice trade

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There is no holy grail in trading – only discipline, consistency and edge.
  • #455
  • Jun 24, 2025 10:24am Jun 24, 2025 10:24am
1. -1R. Valid trade that didn't go our way. Missed a re-entry on the second blue line as I was in my next trade.
2. +0. Breakeven trade for me. Would've eventually hit T.P , Moved my stoploss on the opposite signal, would've only been a 0.67R at this stage so decided to only move S.L
3. +2R. Clean setup, looked like it wasn't going anywhere and considered exiting for breakeven, but happy I stayed patient and let the trade run.
4. +2R. Another clean set up and can also see that price is trading near a possible support level which aligns with our entry. Could've held for longer as its clear that price has strong upward momentum.

Overall: +3R

Pleased with the day, you can also see examples on the Gold trade of some entries I avoided (last 2 blue lines) as price had moved to the basis, saw quite a few similar today.
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  • #456
  • Jun 24, 2025 10:42am Jun 24, 2025 10:42am
Quoting colmconneely
1. -1R. Valid trade that didn't go our way. Missed a re-entry on the second blue line as I was in my next trade. 2. +0. Breakeven trade for me. Would've eventually hit T.P , Moved my stoploss on the opposite signal, would've only been a 0.67R at this stage so decided to only move S.L 3. +2R. Clean setup, looked like it wasn't going anywhere and considered exiting for breakeven, but happy I stayed patient and let the trade run. 4. +2R. Another clean set up and can also see that price is trading near a possible support level which aligns with our...
Awesome @colmconneely. Perfect and clean..
There is no holy grail in trading – only discipline, consistency and edge.
  • #457
  • Jun 24, 2025 2:45pm Jun 24, 2025 2:45pm
Trade Breakdown — as always, no cherry-picking, all possible setups included

  1. Trade 1: +2R
  2. Trade 2: +0.63R
  3. Trade 3: +0.93R
  4. Trade 4: +2R
  5. Trade 5: -1R
  6. Trade 6: +0.64R
  7. Trade 7: -1R
  8. Trade 8: -1R

Total: +3.20R

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There is no holy grail in trading – only discipline, consistency and edge.
  • #458
  • Jun 25, 2025 5:47am Jun 25, 2025 5:47am
х 5
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Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #459
  • Jun 25, 2025 6:20am Jun 25, 2025 6:20am
Quoting since80808
х 5 {image}
Trying to say something ? I really don’t get that.
There is no holy grail in trading – only discipline, consistency and edge.
  • #460
  • Jun 25, 2025 6:25am Jun 25, 2025 6:25am
Quoting rishee
{quote} Trying to say something ? I really don’t get that.
Traying to invent something Cos it is a consecutive trouble with any RR now
Just an opinion. Based on research
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