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The Swamp

  • #123,381
  • Jun 23, 2025 3:04pm Jun 23, 2025 3:04pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} that is also true, unable to break below 1450 and we bounced quickly to sustained above 1544. Makes me think that bull wants higher
Monday tend to make its own rules.. they dont respect much.. They tend to reach adr+.. adr was about 1539.. But they do tire out and give it all back often in the few days following often
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,382
  • Jun 23, 2025 3:51pm Jun 23, 2025 3:51pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Monday tend to make its own rules.. they dont respect much.. They tend to reach adr+.. adr was about 1539.. But they do tire out and give it all back often in the few days following often
i see exhaustion now but too late to do anything
if we go back to 1544 i will see which side it wants to go
unless bear can take us back down under 1480 1450
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,383
  • Jun 23, 2025 3:58pm Jun 23, 2025 3:58pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} i see exhaustion now but too late to do anything if we go back to 1544 i will see which side it wants to go unless bear can take us back down under 1480 1450
I dont rune the ea on Monday or Friday, plus it dont trade after LC .. but it would had shorted 1577 ish, if allowed to.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,384
  • Jun 23, 2025 4:07pm Jun 23, 2025 4:07pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I dont rune the ea on Monday or Friday, plus it dont trade after LC .. but it would had shorted 1577 ish, if allowed to.
have we got the latest cot report?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,385
  • Jun 23, 2025 5:28pm Jun 23, 2025 5:28pm
Now its going higher 1.1609 next and i think 1630 wont be able to stop it. Maybe your 168x to come
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,386
  • Jun 24, 2025 4:10am Jun 24, 2025 4:10am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Last weeks for comparison {image}
Nearly a 8% rise here.. Comparably..It should make a thump when it does fall..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 48 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,387
  • Jun 24, 2025 4:13am Jun 24, 2025 4:13am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Nearly a 8% rise here.. Comparably..It should make a thump when it does fall.. {image} {image}
thanks for sharing Gator
i believe we just have to wait for a reversal signal here
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,388
  • Jun 24, 2025 4:26am Jun 24, 2025 4:26am
Quoting johncen
{quote} thanks for sharing Gator i believe we just have to wait for a reversal signal here
yeah.. Cot was a day late.. Today may be a Monday type situation.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,389
  • Jun 24, 2025 4:31am Jun 24, 2025 4:31am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} yeah.. Cot was a day late.. Today may be a Monday type situation.
i wonder how much further it can pump, 1610 1620 1630 are resistance level while 1630 probably the strongest.
1580 1550 1530 support
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,390
  • Jun 24, 2025 4:31am Jun 24, 2025 4:31am
Its bullish in momentum/trend.. The first sign of some slipping today, should be a close below 1592. the smaller time frames first.. Maybe it turns to R. Its bullish I see some small weakening signs. Nothing serious just light exhaustion.. it may just be a pause.. The trend and momentum is bullish. It has the attraction to 1530 with COT. Treated like a Monday pa runs against COT often. But by mid week it is often erased. That's probably why the High or Low has Monday so active compared to other days
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,391
  • Jun 24, 2025 4:39am Jun 24, 2025 4:39am
Quoting gatorinla
Its bullish in momentum/trend.. The first sign of some slipping today, should be a close below 1592. the smaller time frames first.. Maybe it turns to R. Its bullish I see some small weakening signs. Nothing serious just light exhaustion
its so close to the last high, so bull has been stalled but if we can break above might see a spike up, just not sure where bear may show up. If no high and we trading under 1630, maybe a double top set up
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,392
  • Jun 24, 2025 5:03am Jun 24, 2025 5:03am
By Net Position – 8 or Fewer Traders:
DateLongShort
June 10 60.4% Shorts held by the 8 largest position holders
June 17 68.2% Shorts held by the 8 largest position holders


That’s a +7.8% jump in short exposure for the top 8 largest traders — a major shift.
long positions 22.5% to 24.3%, a 1.8% increase.
The shorts increased 4.333 X over longs.
They still can be wrong. The thing is they have a limited amount of money. Who could beat them. Who has deeper pockets? I can't think of anyone off hand. It's what they do best. They raised the bet mostly toward a pullback. When is the big secret
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,393
  • Jun 24, 2025 5:06am Jun 24, 2025 5:06am
Quoting gatorinla
By Net Position – 8 or Fewer Traders: DateLongShort June 10 60.4% Shorts held by the 8 largest position holders June 17 68.2% Shorts held by the 8 largest position holders That’s a +7.8% jump in short exposure for the top 8 largest traders — a major shift. long positions 22.5% to 24.3%, a 1.8% increase. The shorts increased 4.333 X over longs. They still can be wrong. The thing is they have a limited amount of money. Who could beat them. Who has deeper pockets? I can't think of anyone off hand. It's what they do best. They raised the bet mostly...
Yea true, when is the turning point, million dollars question
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,394
  • Jun 24, 2025 5:13am Jun 24, 2025 5:13am
Quoting johncen
{quote} Yea true, when is the turning point, million dollars question
I know when at 1.12XX they were heavily short.. Those are still held because pa has risen since, and they never closed those according to the COT reports over those weeks.
Friday before the war and the gap to follow. I had hoped to reach 1.168x... Possibly the high off a 16 year trend. But even here below it, is close enough.. It did hit 1.1631. If this leg is shorter. It may be a Lower high
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,395
  • Jun 24, 2025 5:20am Jun 24, 2025 5:20am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I know when at 1.12XX they were heavily short.. Those are still held because pa has risen since, and they never closed those according to the COT reports over those weeks. Friday before the war and the gap to follow. I had hoped to reach 1.168x... Possibly the high off a 16 year trend. But even here below it, is close enough.. It did hit 1.1631. If this leg is shorter. It may be a Lower high
good swap interests holding shorts~
i will be happy if 1631 is the high~ a double top is a strong reversal sign. But, until it plays out, i will try to scalp long
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,396
  • Jun 24, 2025 5:23am Jun 24, 2025 5:23am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,397
  • Jun 24, 2025 5:37am Jun 24, 2025 5:37am
i simulated 2 years worth.
Monday being the high or low of the week is better than 37%. When a holiday prevents COT's release until monday. Tuesday takes Monday's 37% odds + 10%. That makes today, a Tuesday have a 47% chance of being the high of this week. If it stalls, some adr and week average may be a decent run.
Normal Weeks (no Friday holiday):
Monday is the High of the Week: 22.35%
Monday is the Low of the Week: 15.29%
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,398
  • Jun 24, 2025 5:40am Jun 24, 2025 5:40am
Quoting gatorinla
i simulated 2 years worth. Monday being the high or low of the week is better than 37%. When a holiday prevents COT's release until monday. Tuesday takes Monday's 37% odds + 10%. That makes today, a Tuesday have a 47% chance of being the high of this week. If it stalls, some adr and week average may be a decent run. Normal Weeks (no Friday holiday): Monday is the High of the Week: 22.35% Monday is the Low of the Week: 15.29%
this month and quarter has 5 more trading days including today, i will be keen to see where we at, at the end of the month
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,399
  • Jun 24, 2025 5:42am Jun 24, 2025 5:42am
Quoting gatorinla
Its bullish in momentum/trend.. The first sign of some slipping today, should be a close below 1592. the smaller time frames first.. Maybe it turns to R. Its bullish I see some small weakening signs. Nothing serious just light exhaustion.. it may just be a pause.. The trend and momentum is bullish. It has the attraction to 1530 with COT. Treated like a Monday pa runs against COT often. But by mid week it is often erased. That's probably why the High or Low has Monday so active compared to other days
LC is below 1592.. We will see if it can pull it down..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 3 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,400
  • Jun 24, 2025 5:46am Jun 24, 2025 5:46am
Quoting johncen
{quote} this month and quarter has 5 more trading days including today, i will be keen to see where we at, at the end of the month
If the largest buyers are short..I have to give them some respect. You dont get a lot of money being stupid. (unless daddy gave it to you)
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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