What happen in the market today?

Japanese Yen Consolidates Near Previous Support, Awaits BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks

USDJPY on Monday drew a small bullish candle, halting the previous Friday's decline. The price moved near the previous support around 142.295 on May 7. The next support is estimated at around 139.896, which is the lowest price at the end of April. Yesterday, the USDJPY price formed a high of 143.084, a low of 142.226, and a close of 142.827. The price trend tends to consolidate on the hourly timeframe, which is marked by a Bollinger band squeeze, which reflects low volatility. The UK and US bank holidays yesterday affected trading volumes in the spot forex market.

The delay in the implementation of Donald Trump's tariffs on the European Union had a slight impact on safe-haven assets and helped the USDJPY currency pair recover.

Today, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to deliver the opening remarks at the BoJ–Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies (IMES) 2025 Conference in Tokyo. As the central bank’s leader, his speech will be a focus for investors looking for clues on the central bank’s future monetary policy direction. Themed “New Challenges for Monetary Policy,” the event is expected to have a high impact on the currency, especially as inflation in Japan remains high and wage growth shows signs of sustainability.

The BoJ has been pursuing a very loose monetary policy with interest rates near zero for decades, while the Fed has maintained a tight monetary policy by keeping interest rates high to curb inflation amid concerns that Trump’s tariff policies will hamper interest rate cuts. The downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody’s may affect investors’ confidence in the stability of the US economy amid rising fiscal concerns, credit rating pressures, and recent weak economic data. The Fed is not expected to cut interest rates anytime soon, but may potentially do interest rates later this year. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.50% with a 94.4% probability at its June 18 meeting.

The performance of the US dollar is also still questionable amidst the US political and economic conditions, giving negative sentiment, the dollar index (DXY) which tracks the performance of the USD currency against six other major currencies, is still under pressure. DXY is now at a low of 98.694 in a bearish sentiment below the EMA 20. RSI points to level 38 with a downward channel reflecting a market downtrend that is almost approaching the oversold level.

Analysts also predict that Trump's tax cuts and big spending laws are expected to add about $4 trillion to the country's deficit over the next 10 years and swell the federal government's debt.

The Japanese yen is gaining traction as a safe-haven currency amidst the weakening USD sentiment. However, the USD is still the world's reserve currency even though it is currently burdened with concerns about US fiscal discipline and political instability.

Analysts expect the BoJ to take a hawkish stance if Japan reaches a trade deal with the U.S., along with growing acceptance. After the third round of Japan-U.S. talks, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Sunday that Tokyo aims to accelerate tariff talks with the U.S., to reach a result during next month’s Group of Seven meeting.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks have risen after Russia launched a major drone and missile strike on Ukrainian cities, and Israeli strikes in the past 24 hours killed at least 38 people in Gaza, including children.

USD/HKD gains may fade

For four weeks, bullish sentiment on the Hong Kong dollar and US dollar currency pair can be seen on the weekly timeframe. Since the price reversal drew a bullish candle with a long body for three weeks. However, in the last candle, the bullish candlestick formed smaller at the time of writing.

The weakening of the Hong Kong dollar against the USD was caused by the intervention of the Hong Kong dollar currency by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, by sold Hong Kong dollars to maintain its peg to the US dollar. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought $7.8 billion (HK$60.5 billion) against the Hong Kong dollar since May 2 because the currency has repeatedly reached the upper limit of its peg to the US dollar.

As is known, the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar to stay in the range of 7.75 and 7.85

The Hong Kong dollar was first introduced in 1863 by the Oriental Bank Corporation, replacing foreign currencies that were previously in circulation. In 1972, the Hong Kong dollar was pegged to the US dollar, which then made it more stable. In 1983, due to political pressure and speculation surrounding Hong Kong's future, the Hong Kong Dollar was re-pegged to the US Dollar at a fixed exchange rate, which remains in place today.

Hong Kong and China have different government and economic systems. However, trade and business relations between Hong Kong and mainland China remain close. Hong Kong is an important bridge between China and the world.

Since the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the USD, USD movements will directly affect the HKD. USD movements can affect stock prices on the Hang Seng Index (HSI). If the USD strengthens, companies that depend on exports can be under pressure, which in turn can affect the HSI.

In addition, Hong Kong is one of the global gold trading centers. Demand for gold from Hong Kong for export to China may affect gold prices on the world market.

Investing in the Hong Kong dollar is quite attractive because its value is pegged to the USD, making the price trend of the USDHKD currency pair tend to be stable. In the monthly timeframe, the USDHKD price trend tends to move in the range of 7.7452 - 7.84990.

Today, the dollar index (DXY), which measures the performance of the USD against six major currencies, is currently up 0.32% at 99.87,6, approaching the EMA 20 line.

Today's market may have a decrease in volume because several European banks are closed in commemoration of Ascension Day. However, the US will release some important news, including US GDP and Unemployment Claims, which may be considered by investors in their analysis.

Gold prices are steady in the market range. Where will it go next?

On Friday's trading, gold prices fell, drawing a bearish candle with a medium body and a small shadow at the bottom of the candle. Gold failed to extend its rise after reaching a high of 3330 on Thursday. Yesterday's gold price formed a high of 3322, a low of 3271, and a close of 3288 near the middle band line.

Gold in the last few days has moved more in the range above 3200 and below 3400. The flat Bollinger band reflects the market moving in a sideways phase. On Thursday's gold price movement, gold rose, drawing a bullish candle, but sentiment turned negative after US President Donald Trump complained that China violated the agreement negotiated between the two parties in Switzerland.

On the other hand, Trump's tariff policy has caused economic uncertainty. The US Federal Court of Appeals reinstated most of the tariffs imposed by Trump on April 2, "Liberation Day," after a decision by the US Court of International Trade, which blocked most of the duties as illegal. As a result, US equities fell, while the US Dollar recovered from near its daily low.

The Core PCE Index released on Friday showed actual data of 0.1% as expected. The data fell in April compared to the March meeting. Despite the softer inflation environment, Gold prices failed to gain traction as short US Dollar positions in the futures market were trimmed last week, according to Commitments of Traders data.

The report showed that the US core PCE inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, rose at a modest pace of 2.5% on an annualized basis, as expected, compared to 2.7% in March, which was revised down from 2.6%. In the same period, the PCE inflation data rose by 2.1%, slower than the 2.2% expected and the previous release of 2.3%.

The impact of the US PCE inflation data is expected to be limited in the Fed’s next monetary policy. Fed officials appear more concerned about inflation caused by uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policy.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies, is still moving below the EMA 20, which reflects that the DXY is on a downward path. The DXY rose slightly by 0.11% on Friday in the range of 99.443 after rising to 100.540 on Thursday.

Today, investors will wait for the release of US data. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will publish the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Manufacturing and Services PMI data for May on Monday and Wednesday, which may affect gold in the short term. However, today, some banks in New Zealand, China, and Europe are on holiday, which could affect trading volumes in the gold market.

USD/CHF drops extend three-day decline

The Swiss Franc in yesterday's trading drew a long-bodied bearish candle with almost no shadow, reflecting a moderate decline on Monday at the beginning of this week's market. USDCHF formed a high of 0.82319 low of 0.81570, and closed at 0.81688 near the lower band. This decline extended the previous decline since May 29 from a high of 0.83476.

The decline in the Swiss Franc reflects increased demand for safe-haven currencies amid President Donald Trump's tariff policy, which has caused investor confidence in the US dollar to decline. Recently, President Donald Trump, in his speech before US steel workers, said he would raise steel tariffs from 25% to 50%. Shortly after the speech, Trump emphasized it through a post on Truth Social. He said a similar policy would also apply to aluminum.

Trump's decision received a response from the European Union, which said the policy was damaging ongoing negotiation efforts between the two blocs. EU officials in an official statement stated that they were ready to retaliate and warned that cross-Atlantic trade relations were entering a risky phase again.

Steel-producing countries such as South Korea, Vietnam, Japan, and India may be greatly affected by Trump's new policy, potentially affecting the value of steel company shares.

Meanwhile, Australia is considering suing Trump at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over steel and aluminum tariffs. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is scheduled to meet with Trump on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Canada at the end of June.

The escalating global trade war tensions have further worsened the performance of the dollar index. Yesterday, the DXY, which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies, fell to a low of 98.619, moving away from the EMA 20 line, reflecting a strengthening bearish sentiment. This position provides an advantage to the Swiss Franc, which is one of the safe-haven currencies.

Yesterday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI data released by the Institute for Supply Management showed a value of 48.5, lower than the expected 49.5. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing Prices were 69.4, below the expected 70.2. This data further adds to the burden on the performance of the US dollar.

Today, traders will focus on Swiss CPI data, which is forecast to rise by 0.1% from a previous revision of 0.0%, and US JOLTS job openings, which is forecast to fall by 7.11M from a previous 7.19 M.

Canadian dollar is on the 1.36000 support line ahead of interest rates

The USDCAD currency pair on Tuesday moved steadily around 1.37118 near the lower band line. USDCAD drew a small bullish hammer candle with a short wick, reflecting low volatility closed slightly higher than the opening price. The price formed a high of 1.37429 low of 1.37012, and closed at 1.37173.

The wildfires in Canada have not had much impact on the Canadian dollar so far, although the wildfires in Alberta have shut down nearly 350,000 barrels per day of oil production, equivalent to about 7% of the province's total output. While not a major impact on global supply, the disruption is significant enough to fuel the ongoing rally in oil prices.

The Canadian dollar is one of the commodity currencies whose value is influenced by the value of the country's leading commodities, including crude oil exports. Crude oil and crude bitumen are among Canada's largest export products, accounting for about 14% of total exports. Energy products, including oil, account for about 22% of total exports. Canada is one of the world's largest oil producers, ranking fourth after Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the US.

However, the Canadian dollar is also correlated to the US dollar; a good performance in the USD currency can cause the CAD to weaken, conversely, a bad performance in the USD can cause the CAD to strengthen. Yesterday's US economic data showed stronger US JOLTS data, fueling the strengthening of the dollar index (DXY). The US dollar index yesterday rose around 0.54% from a low of 98.583 to a high of 99.328.

Looking at the geopolitical risks, the escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war have added to concerns about potential disruptions to Russia's oil infrastructure, which could disrupt oil distribution. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated with the recent drone attack on a Russian airfield, followed by a retaliatory attack in Kyiv. Meanwhile, mixed signals from the Iran-US nuclear negotiations also keep market players on guard.

Today, investors will focus on US economic data, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is expected to rise by 111k from the previous revision of 62k. The ADP report often has a temporary impact on the value of the USD. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI is expected to slightly increase to 52.0 from the previous 51.6. On the other hand, the BoC (Bank of Canada) will announce the Overnight Rate, which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.75%. Unchanged interest rates may not have a major impact on the currency. In addition to interest rates, investors are also looking for subtle clues from the BOC Rate Statement for hawkish or dovish policies.

USD/JPY returns to support after disappointing US data

The Japanese Yen as one of the safe-haven currencies, strengthened again yesterday after the release of disappointing US data. USDJPY drew a bearish candle with a long body and a small shadow on the top of the candle. The price formed a high of 144.383, a low of 142.605, and a closing of 142.722. The candlestick created a low near Tuesday's low, which could be a support level in this zone.

The strengthening of the Japanese Yen was triggered by factors such as a series of economic news that increased trade tensions caused by Trump's tariff policy, giving a boost to safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen.

Yesterday's ADP Employment Change data on Wednesday showed a softening in the US private sector employment situation. The report showed an increase of only 37k jobs in May, far below the forecast of 115k jobs. This was also lower than the previous data revision of 60k. Other US economic data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released its Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May, reporting a reading of 49.9 for the ISM Services PMI, which was much lower than the expected print of 52.0. This indicates that business conditions and optimism in the US services sector have fallen into contractionary territory.

The US dollar index (DXY) which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies is still on a downward path. DXY fell from a high of 99.292 to a low of 98.673 below the EMA 20.

Meanwhile, the Fed at its June 18 meeting is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the current 425-450 with a probability of 97.9%. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September.

On the other hand, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has reaffirmed its commitment to raising interest rates in response to rising inflation.

Related to Trump's 50% tariff policy on steel and aluminum, Japan remains vulnerable to rising costs that could threaten its export-based industry. On Tuesday, Ueda told the market: "The latest tariff policy will put downward pressure on the Japanese economy through several different channels". However, he also stated that the central bank "is expected to continue raising interest rates if underlying inflation accelerates to 2% as projected."

Today, the US will release another important economic data, Unemployment Claims, which measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week; it is expected to fall to 236k from the previous revised reading of 240k. A lower actual reading could support the USD and vice versa.

Pound Sterling tends to strengthen ahead of NFP data release

The GBPUSD trading pattern still has the potential for bullish sentiment amid the weakening US dollar due to the economic chaos resulting from President Trump's tariff policy. Yesterday, GBPUSD drew a small-bodied bullish candle reflecting low market volatility in this pair. GBPUSD formed a high of 1.36163, a low of 1.35405, and a close of 1.35738.

Pound Sterling is still showing its strength driven by external factors, such as the weakening US dollar due to disappointing US economic data in May and tariff uncertainty weighing on the US dollar when US President Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% on Wednesday.

Wednesday's data release showed that the US ADP Employment Change report in the private sector recruited 37k new workers, lower than 60k in April and missing market expectations of 115k by a large margin. The market responded and gave negative sentiment to the US dollar. This can be seen from the value of the US dollar index (DXY), which fell from a high of 99.393 to a low of 98.673 and continued on Thursday to reach a low of 98.351. The movement of the DXY value is still below the EMA 20 which reflects a more dominant bearish sentiment.

In addition, the ISM Manufacturing PMI report for May also showed that factory sector activity declined at a faster rate, which was suspected to be due to Trump's ever-changing tariff policy after the tariffs were imposed, which actually hampered domestic manufacturers from holding back their strategic development and expansion plans due to fear of uncertainty.

There even seems to be a feud between Trump and the Fed. Trump with his tariff policy is considered to be able to increase inflation and make the Fed's steps more careful in lowering interest rates. On the other hand, President Trump criticized the Fed by calling it "Late" in his Truth milk social media post, he wrote "ADP DATA IS OUT!!! The "Late" Powell must now LOWER INTEREST RATES. He is amazing!!! Europe has lowered INTEREST RATES BY NINE TIMES,"

In the UK, the BoE is unlikely to cut interest rates again, given rising inflationary pressures and a stable labor market. Meanwhile, the uncertainty of the US-China negotiations may weigh on the UK economy given that China has a low-cost competitive advantage, so that British business owners will face pressure from a price war between the two parties in the international market.

Ahead of the release of the NFP data on Friday, the Pound Sterling is trading in the range of 1.35710 near the upper band line. Investors will later wait for the release of US data that could have an impact on the US dollar and its implications for the Pound Sterling exchange rate. Average Hourly Earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% from the previous revision of 0.2%. Non-Farm Employment Change is forecast to fall 126 from the previous revision of 177k. And the Unemployment Rate is expected to be the same as the previous period of 4.2%.

Silver Price Draws New All-Time High Throughout 2025

Silver price on Friday soared to a new all-time high at 36,328. This value is the highest price record since 2012 and is an interesting note because Silver is one of the precious metals that are widely traded among forex traders. High volatility and profit potential make it one of the assets in forex that has high volatility. Although it is in line with the risk.

On Friday, Silver drew a bullish candle extending Thursday's increase. The price formed a high of 36,328 low of 35,585, and closed at 35,967. The price crossed the upper band, indicating a strong rally.

Silver's momentum was driven by strong industrial demand, ongoing supply shortages, and increasing investor interest as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainty. Silver's vital role in solar energy, electronics, and electrification supports more than half of its global demand. Last week, US data showed weak US economic data, including rising jobless claims, weaker private employment, and boosted demand for safe-haven assets. However, non-farm payrolls beat estimates with a rise of 139,000 in May, although April was revised down to 147,000. In addition, Trump's policies that caused economic uncertainty also gave a boost to safe-haven assets, including Silver.

The rise in Silver prices has also boosted shares of mining companies such as Endeavor Silver (NYSE: EXK), First Majestic Silver (NYSE: AG), Hecla Mining, Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE), and more.

Gold and Silver often move in tandem. Where gold has risen by 44% from last year, and Silver has hit a new all-time high since 2012. This increase is supported by the widening tariff war by the US and consistent buying by central banks. In addition, there are large inflows into silver-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which also support Silver. According to Bloomberg, holdings in these ETFs increased by 2.2 million ounces on Wednesday. In addition, money managers have increased their bullish positions on Comex silver futures in the week ended May 23.

From a geopolitical risk perspective, gold and silver are still the favorites as safe-haven assets. The Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East that have not shown any signs of peace are increasingly giving space to safe-haven assets.

Today, there is no important news scheduled in the economic calendar at Forexfactory; bank holidays in Australia, Switzerland, France, and Germany may affect the volume of transactions in the spot forex market.

Can Bitcoin reach $150k this year?

Bitcoin price has been rising again in the past few days, indicating bullish sentiment on Bitcoin. Yesterday, Bitcoin drew a long-bodied bullish candle across the middle band line. The price formed a high of 108756 low of 105336 closing of 108686. This is almost approaching the resistance of 111786, which was formed on May 23.

Bitcoin price dropped to a low of 100376 on June 5 and slowly rose, moving up from the lower band towards the upper band target. The rise in Bitcoin price seems to give hope to crypto assets in the long term. The Fear and Greed Index has shown a level of 55, which reflects that investors are currently still neutral with a higher weighting of greed. In the past 7 days, Bitcoin has increased by 5.07% according to Coinmarketcap data.

Many crypto analysts predict that Bitcoin can reach $150k or even higher in the current cycle or the future. Some predictions suggest that Bitcoin could reach this target by the end of 2025.

Some of the reasons underlying the prediction include:

 

1. Bitcoin halving, which occurs every four years, reduces the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market, and historically, halving is followed by a significant price increase. The last Bitcoin halving occurred in April 2024.
2. Institutional adoption. Several large institutions are starting to be interested in Bitcoin, and the launch of the Bitcoin ETF on the US spot market has opened the door for more institutional investors to access Bitcoin.
3. Bitcoin's role as a store of value. Global economic uncertainty, inflation, and central bank monetary policy, some investors to believe Bitcoin can be a safe-haven asset.
4. Increased hashrate. The increase in hashrate used to secure the network shows miners' confidence in Bitcoin's prospects.
5. Political and regulatory support. Some analysts argue that potential changes in political policy, such as in the US, will support crypto regulation, which can boost Bitcoin prices.

However, Bitcoin is an asset that is highly volatile and has risks. Predictions may be wrong and not in accordance with expectations because predictions are basically speculation. Although predictions by major analysts such as Robert Kiyosaki, Arthur Haves, and others. In addition, macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, geopolitical risks, and other major events can affect the value of Bitcoin.

Gold price steady near middle band amid US-China trade talks

Gold price is moving more sideways as the progress of US-China talks improves amid rising geopolitical risks. Gold price on Tuesday drew a Doji with short wicks on top and bottom candles. Gold price formed a high of 3349 low of 3301, closing at 3322 from the opening of 3324. The current value is a support zone if referring to the previous support at 3245 near the middle band line.

US-China trade talks in London get positive sentiment from the market and stabilize the dollar. Talks in London between senior US and Chinese officials showed encouraging signs of progress, increasing risk appetite among investors, which pushed US equities higher. Easing tensions between the US and China will mean a stronger USD amid relief about the progress of the US economy. On the positive side, the US reported progress in talks with other major economies, such as India.

Expectations that China will release rare earths in volumes suggest potential relief for the US supply chain. These minerals are critical to sectors such as technology, defense, and green energy, where they are essential for products such as semiconductors, electric vehicles (EVs), and military hardware. Trade developments are expected to help maintain geopolitical stability and global economic growth projections.

Responding to the encouraging news, the US dollar index is still below the 20 EMA, DXY formed a high of 99.390 low of 98.862 with tight open and close points. Next, the market will await the release of the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May which is expected to rise from 2.3% YoY to 2.5% YoY, with US households feeling the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Meanwhile, the Fed may continue to wait and see and maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50% as estimated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool with a 99.9% probability that the Fed will maintain current interest rates at its June 18 meeting this month.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks are providing support for safe-haven assets. US President Trump told Fox News that Iran has become much more aggressive in nuclear talks. Iranian lawmakers have accused the US and Israel of setting a “nuclear trap” ahead of planned negotiations, while former US President Donald Trump warned that further uranium enrichment by Tehran could trigger military action. This, along with Russia’s claim to control territory in east-central Ukraine, could push gold prices higher.

GBP/USD trades in a range awaiting UK and US data

GBPUSD is trading in a range market between the middle and upper band lines. Yesterday, GBPUSD drew a bullish candle with a short body almost the same as the preceding candle. The price formed a high of 1.35672 low of 1.34645 close of 1.3585.

Poor US inflation data and increasing bets of a Fed rate cut in September, coupled with a US-China trade framework agreement, kept the US Dollar on the defensive throughout the day. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose less than expected in May. The headline figure rose by 2.4% YoY, up from 2.3% a month ago but below forecasts for a 2.5% increase. Core CPI, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, rose by 2.8% YoY, unchanged from April's data.

The US Dollar struggled to outperform its major peers after the inflation data. The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US dollar against six other major currencies, is still below the EMA 20. DXY fell 0.41% from a high of 99.221 to a low of 98.525. The decline in DXY affected other USD pairs, including the British Pound.

Trump’s seemingly ever-changing tariff policies are still in the spotlight. According to Bloomberg, A string of below-forecast inflation readings adds to evidence that consumers are yet to feel the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

On the other hand, the UK economy, Analysts remain concerned about the UK’s weak fiscal position, and an expected slowdown in the economy is likely to push interest rates lower, which could be offset by a large fiscal stimulus package. The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to keep interest rates on hold next week.

Today, the Office for National Statistics will release GDP data, which is forecast to contract by -0.1% from the previous revision of 0.2%. Meanwhile, investors will also be waiting for the release of US PPI and jobless claims data. US PPI is expected to be higher than the previous release, and jobless claims are predicted to fall. If this forecast is correct, it may encourage USD strengthening.

New Zealand Dollar Rises After Unfavorable US Data

The NZDUSD pair yesterday drew a long-bodied bullish candle with a small shadow at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 0.60712, a low of 0.60056, and a close of 0.60671.

Visually, the NZDUSD pair tends to draw lower highs, indicating bullish sentiment since May 12 when the price was near the lower band. The US data released on Thursday showed jobless claims were the same as the previous revision of 248k, but this was higher than the expected 242k. Meanwhile, the core PPI data was 0.1% lower than the expected 0.2%, but better than the previous revision. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services edged up 0.1 percent in May after falling 0.1 percent in April. Other inflation data released on Wednesday showed that core CPI rose 0.1% from the previous revision of 0.2% but was lower than the expected 0.3%. Meanwhile, annual CPI rose 2.4% from 2.3% previously but was still lower than the 2.5% expected.

The economic data that is less supportive of the USD has brought the USD dollar index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US dollar against six major currencies, to continue to experience downward pressure. DXY fell to 97.602 from a high of 98.519, further away from the EMA 20 line, which reflects strong bearish sentiment. The US-China trade war has eased somewhat after a framework agreement in negotiations in London. However, the market still doubts the implementation of the agreement because the trade terms announced by US President Trump with China on Wednesday did not provide what Beijing received in return, which has the potential to raise doubts about the sustainability of the trade truce.

President Donald Trump told reporters at the Kennedy Center that he was ready to send a final trade agreement, including tariffs, to trading partners who have not accepted Washington's proposal or who are not negotiating in good faith.

On the other hand, clashes in Los Angeles due to protests over immigrant raids have worsened as the federal government prepares to send 700 marines to reinforce the 2,000 National Guard personnel who have been deployed to quell the riots in Los Angeles. However, the deployment of thousands of National Guardsmen has been strongly opposed by Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and California Governor Gavin Newsom. Newsom even announced a lawsuit against President Trump for sending troops without a formal request from the state. Tensions in Los Angeles continue to rise along with protests against the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which led to riots. City residents took to the streets to protest raids on illegal immigrants carried out by federal authorities.

Today, investors will focus on the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment data released by the University of Michigan, which measures the level of the composite index based on surveyed consumers, which is expected to rise to 53.5 from the previous revision of 52.2. And Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, which measures the percentage of consumers who expect the price of goods and services to change over the next 12 months.

Gold crosses $3,400 amid Israel-Iran war risks

Gold prices surged to $3,446 on Friday amid heightened geopolitical risks between Israel and Iran that could trigger a longer war. Gold prices drew a long-bodied bullish candle on Friday that crossed the upper band line. Prices formed a high of 3,446, a low of 3,379, and a close of 3,433.

The rise in gold prices was driven by several factors, including geopolitical tensions: the Israel-Iran conflict triggered a rush to safe havens like gold, pushing prices closer to record highs. The weakening USD pressure also further supported the rise in gold prices. Although gold has the potential to rise, some analysts consider gold prices to be overvalued and have suggested a possible correction of 12 to 15% in the coming months.

Israeli attacks on Iranian military installations, nuclear facilities, and senior officials have heightened tensions in the region. Following the attacks, XAU/USD hit a five-week high of $3,446 before retreating slightly to current levels as traders booked profits ahead of the weekend. On the other hand, Iran's retaliatory attack on Tel Aviv has further increased the geopolitical risks in the region.

Meanwhile, the weakening of the USD is related to the US economic data released last week. Inflation in the United States continues to ease after the release of the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index figures for May. Recently, the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment survey revealed that households are increasingly optimistic about the economy, but they remain concerned about higher prices.

This week, traders will be watching the release of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting, where officials will update their economic projections on Thursday. In addition, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, housing, and employment data can help determine the direction of Gold.

The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.50% at its June 19 meeting. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range is 96.9%.

Goldman Sachs projects that the price of Gold bullion will rise to $3,700 by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026. Bank of America (BofA) estimates Gold at $4,000 in the next 12 months.

Gold prices are still expected to have the potential to rise, but the possibility of a short-term correction remains, especially when geopolitical risks subside or the USD strengthens.

Japanese Yen Weakens Ahead of BOJ Policy Rate

The volatility of the USDJPY pair is quite high amid geopolitical risk tensions due to the Israel-Iran war, which seems to be an all-out war between the two countries because Iran has rejected the ceasefire.

On Monday, USDJPY drew a bullish candle extending the preceding candle on Friday, crossing the middle band from the lower side. The price formed a high of 144.873, a low of 143.649, and closed at 144.709. Visually, the price is still in the Bollinger band area.

The market does not seem to fully respond to geopolitical risks due to the Israel-Iran wa,r which theoretically supports safe-haven currencies. The market seems to be more focused on the performance of the US dollar ahead of the BOJ interest rate, which will be released today. The US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar against six major currencies, has recovered slightly. DXY rose to a high of 98.365 from a low of 97.685, closing at 98.135. However, the DXY recovery is still below the EMA 20, which reflects the dominant bearish sentiment.

The BOJ is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.50% as officials have expressed concerns about growth amid global uncertainty over the risk of a trade war stemming from US President Donald Trump's tariff policies.

On the other hand, the Fed is also expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week on Thursday according to Forexfactory. The Fed is also expected to keep its benchmark lending rate steady in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% as officials have said they need clarity on the new economic policies announced by President Trump before making any adjustments to monetary policy.

In addition, today the US also released retail sales data by the Census Bureau, which is estimated to see core retail sales rise 0.2% from a previously revised 0.1%, and retail sales month-on-month fall -0.5% from a previously revised 0.1%. More declining US economic indicators could weigh on the US dollar.

Analysts expect the Japanese Yen to remain attractive as a safe-haven, especially if US equities face more geopolitical shocks. Excessive oil price gains could reduce the yen's safe-haven appeal, but a hawkish adjustment in the BoJ's expectations should offset this.

USD/CHF continues to rise, approaching dynamic resistance 0.82304

USDCHF extends four consecutive days of gains. Yesterday, the Swiss Franc drew a bullish candle with a small shadow on the top of the candle. The price formed a high of 0.81989 low of 0.81410, and closed at 0.81782.

The Fed announced interest rates yesterday, as expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at 4.50%. The FOMC projections showed the Fed expects lower economic growth and higher inflation and unemployment rates in 2025 compared to previous projections. They also raised their long-term interest rate projections.

Economic growth is projected to be revised lower for 2025. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation is projected to increase to 3.0% in 2025. The unemployment rate is projected to increase to 4.4% in 2025. The long-term interest rate (neutral rate) projection has also been adjusted, indicating the potential for future interest rate increases. The Fed maintained its benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25-4.50%. Several FOMC members saw the potential for further rate cuts in 2026 and 2027, despite lower economic growth projections and higher inflation.

The FOMC projections suggest that the Fed is being more cautious in its monetary policy, taking into account the potential for an economic slowdown and inflationary pressures. They also highlighted the importance of monitoring the impact of the policies that have been taken.

The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the performance of the USD against a basket of six major currencies, is seen continuing its four-day rally. DXY rose to 99.010 near the 20 EMA from a low of 98.483. However, the doji candle suggests further gains as this pattern indicates an indecisive market.

Switzerland is facing deep-rooted disinflation, as core inflation has hit its lowest level in almost four years, and CPI is now negative on a year-on-year basis. In addition, officials have previously expressed concerns over the persistent strength of the Swiss Franc (CHF). YTD, the CHF is up 11% (vs. USD). They have indicated that they are open to cutting interest rates to zero or even negative territory. Today, investors will be waiting for the Swiss National Bank Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting, which is expected by Forexfactory to cut the SNB interest rate to 0.0% from 0.25% previously. A dovish rate cut could support a move higher in USD/CHF.

The Israel-Iran War headlines are still a hot topic today. Rising geopolitical risk tensions could boost demand for safe-haven currencies and assets, including USD, CHF, JPY, and precious metals such as gold and silver.

US attacks Iran's nuclear site, Bitcoin plunges to $98k

The global crypto market is under heavy pressure after the United States openly became involved in the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel. On Saturday night (21/6/2025) local time, the US launched an airstrike targeting Iran's main nuclear facility, triggering a wave of panic among digital asset investors. Bitcoin fell for the first time after the US attacked Iran's nuclear site.

US President Donald Trump stated via Truth Social that he confirmed that American fighter jets had attacked three strategic sites belonging to Iran - Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. This attack immediately shook market confidence, especially in the crypto sector which is known to be very sensitive to global uncertainty. Bitcoin - which for the past few weeks has remained above the psychological threshold, finally plunged below 100,000 US dollars, and even touched the level of 98.256 US dollars.

Trump seemed happy with his success, but the parliamentary congress had 2 conflicting opinions. The US will be dragged into an ongoing war even though it is not directly related. will cause a waste of foreign exchange.

Bitcoin's plunge signals investors are avoiding riskier assets as geopolitical uncertainty mounts. A wider escalation could see Bitcoin's value drop even lower.

The war has had a devastating impact on the region. According to Iran's official news agency, Nour News, since the start of the Israeli attack on June 13, at least 430 Iranians have been killed and 3,500 others injured. In retaliation, Iran has launched missiles that have killed 24 civilians in Israel, according to local authorities.

The US's entry into direct confrontation with Iran is even feared to be the beginning of a third world war that the international community does not expect.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that his country would not negotiate with the US as long as the attack continues. "Obviously, I cannot negotiate when our people are being bombarded with US support," Araqchi said in Istanbul while attending a meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), as quoted by Fars News. This condition creates high uncertainty in the global market, including crypto assets, which have so far been considered an alternative hedge.

Gold price falls as geopolitical risks ease

Gold price on Tuesday trading fell, drawing a long bearish candle body and shadow at the bottom of the candle. Gold price formed a high of 3369, a low of 3295, and closed at 3322. Gold price crossed the middle band and MA 50 from the upper side.

The decline in gold price may be influenced by two main factors. Powell's comments confirmed that the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates. High interest rates make non-yielding assets such as gold less attractive to investors.

Although the market is pricing in two rate cuts this year, analysts expect the Fed to start easing in September. Any change in this narrative and these expectations could contribute to Gold's next move. Powell stated before Congress that the Fed should prevent a one-time increase in the price level from becoming a sustained inflation problem by keeping inflation expectations in check.

According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting rates at its July 30 meeting is estimated at 18.6%, and the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged is 81.4%.

From the geopolitical risk factor. Trump's statement via social media confirmed the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, posting on Truth Social: "CEASE FIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!" This statement seems to have a market response that signals an easing of tensions between the Iran vs Israel war, which in turn lowered gold prices. Elsewhere in China, the Chinese central bank eased monetary policy and injected liquidity into the market.

The ceasefire has pressured Gold and Crude Oil prices as traders unload risk hedges related to potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for about 20% of global Oil supplies.

Today, investors will also focus on Powell's testimony on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

WTI oil correction after a two-day sharp decline

Yesterday's oil price drew a small bearish candle with a shadow on the top of the candle. Oil price formed a high of 65.52, a low of 64.10, and a close of 64.48. The correction in oil prices briefly halted a two-day-long decline after the Middle East ceasefire.

The ceasefire in the Middle East has eased concerns about oil supply disruptions, keeping the price of a barrel for the US benchmark WTI below $65.00. Although the ceasefire may be fragile because Iran continues its peaceful nuclear program, while Israel accuses it of developing nuclear weapons.

Iran's oil supply capacity seems unaffected by the Israeli bombing, and the threat of a blockade on the key Strait of Hormuz has been averted for now. All these circumstances have contributed to bringing prices back to pre-war levels.

Meanwhile, investor concerns about demand remain as the U.S. economy shows signs of slowing. Consumer confidence deteriorated in June, confirming the gloomy picture. Meanwhile, Powell’s hawkish stance in his congressional testimony on Tuesday added to the downside pressure on prices.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has not signaled any imminent rate cuts as he said the risk of higher inflation stemming from Trump’s tariffs remains high. The Fed’s tighter policy is weighing on economic activity and oil demand, adding to the downside pressure on prices.

The latest data from the EIA showed a drawdown of 5.836 million barrels for the week ended June 20, far exceeding expectations for a modest 0.6 million barrel decline. The supply drawdown signals a tightening of supply conditions amid steady summer demand.

The Eurozone economy is stagnant, while China's recovery has not yet been achieved, the plan of OPEC+ countries to continue to increase supply may cause an oversupply of Oil.

Investors today will focus on the final US GDP data, which is estimated to have contracted -0.2% the same as the previous quarter. US Unemployment Claims are estimated to slightly decrease by 244k from the previous revision of 245k.

USD/CNH steady in the range of 7.1678 amid Yuan campaign

On Friday, the offshore Yuan pair USDCNH drew a bullish candle with a slight shadow on the top candle. The price formed a high of 7.1748, a low of 7.1598, and a close of 7.1707. It is steady between the middle and lower bands of the contracting Bollinger bands.

Amid the USD challenges, China is trying to seize the moment to globalize the Yuan as doubts grow about the USD. According to Bloomberg, Chinese policymakers see erratic US decision-making and geopolitical tensions as the most favorable backdrop in recent years to promote the yuan. The move is aimed at facilitating trade and opening up China's financial markets and embedding the yuan deeper in investment flows.

China's central bank governor Pan Gongsheng envisioned a new global currency order in which the US dollar plays a smaller role and the Yuan plays a major role in global capital flows. He plans to set up an international operations center for the digital yuan in Shanghai.

In 2025, the Chinese government is targeting 5% growth, and in the first quarter recorded a 5.4% year-on-year expansion, higher than the 5.1% expectation. However, official annual growth is estimated at 4.5% to 5% by institutions such as the OECD (4.7%), Goldman (4.0%), and Moody's (3.8%), which projected a slightly lower figure.

In the economic sector, industrial and export performance declined in May due to weak demand and tariff pressures. The property sector is also still weak; the Evergrande & Country Garden crisis was exacerbated by liquidation to large-scale restructuring, and this sector is a major drag on growth. Household consumption is -39% of GDP, but stimulus and trade-in have boosted consumer spending. PPI is negative, and consumer inflation remains low; there is a risk of deflation due to weak domestic demand.

Trade tensions with the US continue to be an external and geopolitical challenge. However, on the other hand, energy diversification has helped reduce vulnerability to global supply disruptions.

China's long-term challenges include an aging population, a drastically declining ratio of workers to retirees, and hampered productivity. Suboptimal services in the transformation of the economy from industrial exports to consumption and dependence on foreign technology, especially semiconductors, continue even though the Made in China 2025 program has shown success in high technology such as EV, AI, solar, etc.

Today, CFLP (China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing) will release Manufacturing PMI data with expectations of 49.6 from the previous revision of 49.5.

EUR/USD is moving in an upward channel along the upper band line

Yesterday, the EURUSD pair drew a bullish medium-bodied candle extending the previous increase. The price formed a high of 1.17880 low of 1.17078 close of 1.17867 on FXOpen's platform. The euro is likely to remain in an upward channel throughout 2025, as of the time of writing.

The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar was triggered by several factors, including the weakening of the US dollar, which fell by around 10% in the first half of 2025, which was the largest decline since the 1970s. This was triggered by investors losing confidence in US economic policy, including uncertainty regarding tariffs and political pressure on the independence of the Fed.

The second factor is the expectation that the Fed is more dovish than the more hawkish ECB. The Fed is likely to stop raising interest rates and even lower them this year, while the ECB is holding off on cutting. This divergence could cause capital flows to Europe and strengthen the euro.

Capital flows and investments in European assets are also increasing. Global investors have begun to invest in European stock markets with equity inflows of around US$100 billion exceeding outflows from the US throughout 2025. Fiscal stimulus from Germany of around Euro500 billion has also boosted the Euro.

Geopolitical risk is also another reason for the strengthening of the Euro against the US dollar. US intervention in the Middle East has reduced demand for USD so that investors generally seek a transition in the European region at a time of global uncertainty.

Eurozone economic data is also relatively strong, business activity and manufacturing indicators in Germany and the Euro area were positive in June. Inflation is also stable, giving the ECB room to maintain policy, while the strengthening of the Euro is still tolerated.

Today, several high-impact news are the focus of traders. ECB President Lagarde and Fed Chair Powell speak in a panel discussion entitled "Policy Panel" at the ECB Forum in Sintra, where there are expected questions from the audience. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI will also be released, expected to increase slightly to 48.8 from the previous revision of 48.5. Meanwhile, JOLTS Job Openings are expected to fall to 7.32M from the previous 7.38M.