The Swamp | Page 6169 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: The Swamp
Exit Attachments

The Swamp

  • #123,361
  • Jun 20, 2025 5:32pm Jun 20, 2025 5:32pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} yeah.. But if it dont gap down open now below 151x.. It has a good chance of rising Monday.
am not sure if i prefer a gap down or higher up to short
i guess maybe gap down makes it easier but let see what crazy man will tweet during the weekend
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,362
  • Jun 21, 2025 7:15pm Jun 21, 2025 7:15pm
Maybe a gap down on Mon as US has joined the bombing
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,363
  • Jun 22, 2025 6:36am Jun 22, 2025 6:36am
Quoting johncen
Maybe a gap down on Mon as US has joined the bombing
Not much change at the moment. We’ll see how things look in 10 hours.
The USD is usually seen as a safe haven. The current administration has made three major stupid moves, tariffs is just 1, that have damaged USA standings. How the world perceives the U.S. dollar now is uncertain. Lately the evidence does not help the usd1 being
Given that the U.S. is a net oil producer, I would typically expect the U.S. to perform better in a crisis. Sixteen years ago, the U.S. crossed the threshold from an oil deficit to a net oil producer. Since then—particularly since July 2008 during the financial crisis—the USD has generally strengthened. At that time, the euro was at 1.1634.
An oil shortage would likely hit the Eurozone harder than the U.S., and it would probably weigh even more heavily on Asia. If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, both Europe and Asia could suffer significant economic damage.
What’s strange is the lack of major movement in the USD at the moment. It’s an unusual reading, especially considering the stakes.
Our traditional allies are silent—a silence that feels deafening. That’s not a good sign. After the current leadership damaged diplomatic relationships, it’s unclear if they even coordinated with allies to ensure the safety of their citizens in the region. If not, our allies may be justifiably angry.
Iran is not Iraq. Iran has a real, organized military with twice the manpower. While the U.S. could likely defeat Iran militarily, Iran could ignite a broader conflict across the Middle East—potentially involving Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Turkey, and the UAE. Any disruption in that region could cause major interruptions in global oil shipments.
We’ve got American soldiers in harm's way, and we’ve alienated key partners—with a reckless leader at the helm. I suppose this is one way to distract Americans from the tax bill. I have heard different estimates on the war cost in Iraq in the 2 trillion dollar range. . If the U.S. would need to put boots on the ground in Iran. 2 trillian may just be a down payment. Thank the Moron in Chief for the good or bad outcome. U.S, intelligence reported just the opposite as the Moron. We have been here before.. Right before we went into Iraq. U.S. intelligence said there was not WMD. Deja Vu all over again?
Oh is not Russia a alias of Iran... NK and China a allied with Iran. It may get messy..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 19 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,364
  • Jun 22, 2025 7:00am Jun 22, 2025 7:00am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} yeah.. But if it dont gap down open now below 151x.. It has a good chance of rising Monday.
The way it closed Friday was positive to a Monday run higher, followed by a drop with Monday high being the week high. The Iran situation may halt a run higher. But if it does in normal times. It would stop rising 60/100 pips above 1544.. Head fakes fail about 30 pips above 1544 statiscally (the last 1.5m years).. But also statically where ever the high may be monday. It may be the high for the week. From the high of the week one can triangulate the week average move. From there maybe take some profit toward 70% of a Week average range. If the usd is a safe haven like in the past.. More would be anticipated. The 1683 was never reached.. But pa came close enough to make this a potential top. I didnt know the bombing would start.. i had hoped to short Monday's high Friday
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,365
  • Jun 22, 2025 7:13am Jun 22, 2025 7:13am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The way it closed Friday was positive to a Monday run higher, followed by a drop with Monday high being the week high. The Iran situation may halt a run higher. But if it does in normal times. It would stop rising 60/100 pips above 1544.. Head fakes fail about 30 pips above 1544 statiscally (the last 1.5m years).. But also statically where ever the high may be monday. It may be the high for the week. From the high of the week one can triangulate the week average move. From there maybe take some profit toward 70% of a Week average range....
presser atm on bombing
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,366
  • Jun 22, 2025 11:33am Jun 22, 2025 11:33am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The way it closed Friday was positive to a Monday run higher, followed by a drop with Monday high being the week high. The Iran situation may halt a run higher. But if it does in normal times. It would stop rising 60/100 pips above 1544.. Head fakes fail about 30 pips above 1544 statiscally (the last 1.5m years).. But also statically where ever the high may be monday. It may be the high for the week. From the high of the week one can triangulate the week average move. From there maybe take some profit toward 70% of a Week average range....
no one can predict when the bombing would happen and bull can still bring us to a new high on Mon. Though if a gap down under 1510 makes it harder (eu likes 100 pips and gap down means we need more than 100 pips)
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,367
  • Jun 22, 2025 3:19pm Jun 22, 2025 3:19pm
its looking like a gap down.. this late usually real
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 19 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,368
  • Jun 22, 2025 3:24pm Jun 22, 2025 3:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
its looking like a gap down.. this late usually real {image}
its average day move is near 1% lately.. we got a 1/2% gap already
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 15 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,369
  • Jun 22, 2025 4:06pm Jun 22, 2025 4:06pm
60 pips worth of gap
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 3 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,370
  • Jun 22, 2025 5:30pm Jun 22, 2025 5:30pm
Not sure if the gap will be closed, i might sit on the sideline and wait for dust to be settled, if we run back above 1530, i will enter long
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,371
  • Jun 22, 2025 5:32pm Jun 22, 2025 5:32pm
Iran's biggest move would be to FUBAR the Strait of Hormuz, which it can do with its electronic jamming of tanker ship radio and scuttle boats. One could expect a spike in oil until US ships act as escorts. So much for not getting involved. The fact that President Stinky threatening the spiritual leader of a country that has more than a few religious fanatics is probably not the flex he thought it was. Both Bibi and Trump seem to be acting to stir up the pot to be brothy enough to keep them both out of prison. Who knows. But probably, it's not a fire off the order, go golfing kind of act.

Objectively, looking forward, this will unfold in unconventional warfare. So, watching oil for cues, not planning any trips overseas for my American ass.
Follow the money --Mark Felt (Deepthroat)
  • #123,372
  • Jun 22, 2025 7:31pm Jun 22, 2025 7:31pm
Quoting longfellow
Iran's biggest move would be to FUBAR the Strait of Hormuz, which it can do with its electronic jamming of tanker ship radio and scuttle boats. One could expect a spike in oil until US ships act as escorts. So much for not getting involved. The fact that President Stinky threatening the spiritual leader of a country that has more than a few religious fanatics is probably not the flex he thought it was. Both Bibi and Trump seem to be acting to stir up the pot to be brothy enough to keep them both out of prison. Who knows. But probably, it's not a...
I would be scared to put any ship with or without an escort. Warships may no be safe. Drones have changed things. They can jam the signal. there is a work around on those too, with a micro fiber cable. A attack with a few hundred of them can overwhelm a warships defences.. Its a new world..Wait until they start putting chemical weapons on those drones, or even some Cesium 137. That could make a ship useless. Warship or other ships. I got an active imagination.. But about 2 weeks before 911. I flew to Puerto Viarta. An AeroMexico flight. the cockpit door was open. I dont recall the meal. I do recall we were given regular forks and knives. I commented about the stupidity of cockpit being open and we had real knives. 2 weeks later it made sense. A mouse is constantly looking for a way to get in your house.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,373
  • Jun 23, 2025 12:15pm Jun 23, 2025 12:15pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The way it closed Friday was positive to a Monday run higher, followed by a drop with Monday high being the week high. The Iran situation may halt a run higher. But if it does in normal times. It would stop rising 60/100 pips above 1544.. Head fakes fail about 30 pips above 1544 statiscally (the last 1.5m years).. But also statically where ever the high may be monday. It may be the high for the week. From the high of the week one can triangulate the week average move. From there maybe take some profit toward 70% of a Week average range....
going as per plan?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,374
  • Jun 23, 2025 2:24pm Jun 23, 2025 2:24pm
my ea shorted 1577..tp 1531
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,375
  • Jun 23, 2025 2:28pm Jun 23, 2025 2:28pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} going as per plan?
no.. the gap down isn't part of it.. but its still Monday.. The high today may be the high of the week. the week average is about 226 pips.. Monday's are the day of the week most likely to reverse.. The high or low on a Monday statically can be it for the week. Compared to reward its worth knowing. I got some exhaustion looks on it. One has to find a reason for themselves. I just gave the stats about Monday.. with a war its all new
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,376
  • Jun 23, 2025 2:40pm Jun 23, 2025 2:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The way it closed Friday was positive to a Monday run higher, followed by a drop with Monday high being the week high. The Iran situation may halt a run higher. But if it does in normal times. It would stop rising 60/100 pips above 1544.. Head fakes fail about 30 pips above 1544 statiscally (the last 1.5m years).. But also statically where ever the high may be monday. It may be the high for the week. From the high of the week one can triangulate the week average move. From there maybe take some profit toward 70% of a Week...
It may go 60 or 100 higher.. head fakes typically dont go too much further than 30 pips above 1544..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,377
  • Jun 23, 2025 2:42pm Jun 23, 2025 2:42pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It may go 60 or 100 higher.. head fakes typically dont go too much further than 30 pips above 1544..
i was referencing to your analysis here and trying to look for exhaustion. The high is now about 35 pips above 1544.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,378
  • Jun 23, 2025 2:44pm Jun 23, 2025 2:44pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It may go 60 or 100 higher.. head fakes typically dont go too much further than 30 pips above 1544..
if it fell below 1513 sustained its likely going to retrace. But by then its already fallen 60 pips.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,379
  • Jun 23, 2025 2:49pm Jun 23, 2025 2:49pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} i was referencing to your analysis here and trying to look for exhaustion. The high is now about 35 pips above 1544.
another way to see it.. it made a low.. it too can be the low of the week.. But the way it closed Friday. Before the war and gap down. I was prepared to long. Now I will just play it like a typical monday. Because the 220 week range potential. Plus the bot has it exhausted..I play exhaustion on Monday.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,380
  • Jun 23, 2025 3:00pm Jun 23, 2025 3:00pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} another way to see it.. it made a low.. it too can be the low of the week.. But the way it closed Friday. Before the war and gap down. I was prepared to long. Now I will just play it like a typical monday. Because the 220 week range potential. Plus the bot has it exhausted..I play exhaustion on Monday.
that is also true, unable to break below 1450 and we bounced quickly to sustained above 1544. Makes me think that bull wants higher
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
407 traders viewing now, 1 is registered:
Magicmen