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The Swamp

  • #123,341
  • Jun 20, 2025 2:09am Jun 20, 2025 2:09am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Sitting above 1516. 1544 happens a bunch today. I wanted to fade back to 1469 from 1520. But I didnt get a signal the bears were home. Bulls are holding up.
The last h did manage to close above 1516.5.. The bull side slightly.. That gives more pressure for 1544. the 12 close has more close value in 2 hs
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,342
  • Edited 3:55am Jun 20, 2025 3:42am | Edited 3:55am
if 1544 is reached.. Bulls may need a 1h close above 1537.. Lets see what happens
another hurdle 1567 odd h close est. 1600 another.. 1683 is the top of my month trend close to go bullish. A month close above 1683 would be a big deal. Most attempts fail. Potentially the area in the 1683 shadow can be a long term top. This particular one is 16 years old. I'm not saying it cant go higher than 1683.. The close counts.. From there see what happens
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,343
  • Jun 20, 2025 3:48am Jun 20, 2025 3:48am
Quoting gatorinla
if 1544 is reached.. Bulls may need a 1h close above 1537.. Lets see what happens
bull seems on track closing another hour above 1516 and likley to go further up
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,344
  • Jun 20, 2025 3:58am Jun 20, 2025 3:58am
Next week on a Monday. If a new high is reached in the 1683 area. That has a chance to be a st high and maybe a lt high
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,345
  • Jun 20, 2025 4:00am Jun 20, 2025 4:00am
Quoting johncen
{quote} bull seems on track closing another hour above 1516 and likley to go further up
1537 has some dynamic R.. but the attraction to 44 is likely pulling it.. dynamically bulls want to close an h above 1537. It may be too far for 1468 to pull it down.. lets see what develops at 1544..
Its still never hit 1537, so 44 is not a done deal.. But to me, it has the best shot atm.. when at 1512,, I had 1544 at about 80%.. LC 20%.. But i can be wrong
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,346
  • Jun 20, 2025 4:39am Jun 20, 2025 4:39am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1537 has some dynamic R.. but the attraction to 44 is likely pulling it.. dynamically bulls want to close an h above 1537. It may be too far for 1468 to pull it down.. lets see what develops at 1544.. Its still never hit 1537, so 44 is not a done deal.. But to me, it has the best shot atm.. when at 1512,, I had 1544 at about 80%.. LC 20%.. But i can be wrong
seems having trouble to go above Asia high.
While i hope you are wrong as i want it to go lower, much lower, but bull is still in favour
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,347
  • Jun 20, 2025 7:25am Jun 20, 2025 7:25am
my ea sold.. probably for LC
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,348
  • Jun 20, 2025 11:20am Jun 20, 2025 11:20am
Quoting gatorinla
my ea sold.. probably for LC
Friday whipsaws. I had it focused on 1544.. The EA saw it different then. But now the EA changed its mind.. A good reason not to trade Fridays. Now the EA and 1544 align
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,349
  • Jun 20, 2025 11:50am Jun 20, 2025 11:50am
Quoting johncen
{quote} seems having trouble to go above Asia high. While i hope you are wrong as i want it to go lower, much lower, but bull is still in favour
Monday If it pumps I may be ready to short. When it hits 1544, Its play by ear since it may stall it with 1537 needing to get the h close above.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,350
  • Jun 20, 2025 12:27pm Jun 20, 2025 12:27pm
it hit 1544.. I'm out now
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,351
  • Jun 20, 2025 12:29pm Jun 20, 2025 12:29pm
Quoting gatorinla
it hit 1544.. I'm out now
so late in the day and week, seems bull want to set the foundation to fly next week unless bear slap it back down
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,352
  • Jun 20, 2025 12:36pm Jun 20, 2025 12:36pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1537 has some dynamic R.. but the attraction to 44 is likely pulling it.. dynamically bulls want to close an h above 1537. It may be too far for 1468 to pull it down.. lets see what develops at 1544.. Its still never hit 1537, so 44 is not a done deal.. But to me, it has the best shot atm.. when at 1512,, I had 1544 at about 80%.. LC 20%.. But i can be wrong
it worked out to the higher %. My ea did have me a little worried. My EA right over 80% of the time.. Just not this time. The EA works on dynamics. 1544 was just an algo. That repeats. When the ea changed and agreed.. 1544 became a higher chance
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,353
  • Jun 20, 2025 12:46pm Jun 20, 2025 12:46pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} so late in the day and week, seems bull want to set the foundation to fly next week unless bear slap it back down
I will take a guess, if COT edges up a little (more shorts for larger players today). In Asia and maybe early London it may fly.. But by Tuesday or Wednesday it will be dumping. It wouldn't hurt my feelings to reach 1683 Monday.. We just need to watch what happens.

War talk has that unknown..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,354
  • Jun 20, 2025 12:46pm Jun 20, 2025 12:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} it worked out to the higher %. My ea did have me a little worried. My EA right over 80% of the time.. Just not this time. The EA works on dynamics. 1544 was just an algo. That repeats. When the ea changed and agreed.. 1544 became a higher chance
its too late to consider short here. I will just watch and come back on Mon
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,355
  • Jun 20, 2025 12:50pm Jun 20, 2025 12:50pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} its too late to consider short here. I will just watch and come back on Mon
I dont know if i will trade Monday.. Tuesday is my better day. Monday can be bad.. Knowing about the pump either direction can help..Friday can suck too.. with the whipsaw action.. But if you anticipate them.. You may do better. Monday tends to run with little care about running over stuff. Thats one reason it may reach 1683
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,356
  • Jun 20, 2025 1:23pm Jun 20, 2025 1:23pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} its too late to consider short here. I will just watch and come back on Mon
If Monday would break today's high in the Asian session ( about a 35/40 chance on a COT LARGE players increase in shorts) The run up on a false break is about 30 (above Friday's high) pips. A true break 60/100, ADR + (above Friday's high) Start looking for exhaustion. The exhaustion may take it back to where it started.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,357
  • Jun 20, 2025 1:32pm Jun 20, 2025 1:32pm
when COT comes out it may help sight things.. On the 1630 rise that may have allowed more shorts. 1683 is 50 pips above. A good place to reverse engines
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,358
  • Jun 20, 2025 1:40pm Jun 20, 2025 1:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
when COT comes out it may help sight things.. On the 1630 rise that may have allowed more shorts. 1683 is 50 pips above. A good place to reverse engines

Last weeks for comparison
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 21 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,359
  • Jun 20, 2025 3:40pm Jun 20, 2025 3:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Last weeks for comparison {image}
seems like updated Cot will not be available until Monday
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,360
  • Jun 20, 2025 5:24pm Jun 20, 2025 5:24pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} seems like updated Cot will not be available until Monday
yeah.. But if it dont gap down open now below 151x.. It has a good chance of rising Monday.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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