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  • #13,461
  • Jun 18, 2025 2:30am Jun 18, 2025 2:30am
Long Eurusd 1.15159
  • #13,462
  • Jun 18, 2025 2:33am Jun 18, 2025 2:33am
Quoting josip
DXY H1 trendlines If we get above the red line, we can go higher. (eurusd down) {image}
there is a downward tl i m watching on daily for both usdx and uj. Not sure if we will break
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #13,463
  • Jun 18, 2025 2:40am Jun 18, 2025 2:40am
Probably consolidation around 1.1500 until news about middle east.

Edit: options expirations support this view
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FXO 18-06_id_272ec49e-7ba2-4384-97d3-ab1931d8c77a_original (1).jpg Size: 19 KB
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  • #13,464
  • Jun 18, 2025 2:56am Jun 18, 2025 2:56am
I am tracking the options expiry as well. If they push Eurusd up, can maximize yields
  • #13,465
  • Jun 18, 2025 4:15am Jun 18, 2025 4:15am
My 2 cents:

Fed most likely will not do anything today but the tendency of a rate cut is likely in 2025 September.
What if Powell drop a surprise bomb? Eurusd will spike up.

And USD is progressing towards a devalued dollar in the next 10 years.

Buy on dip for eurusd seems to be the right direction.
Furthermore, the options expiry at 10am NY time, we shall see a battle of higher price level. Tomorrow, the options price tilt higher, thus the directional bias.
  • #13,466
  • Jun 18, 2025 4:38am Jun 18, 2025 4:38am
Quoting SGFxTrader9
My 2 cents: Fed most likely will not do anything today but the tendency of a rate cut is likely in 2025 September. What if Powell drop a surprise bomb? Eurusd will spike up. And USD is progressing towards a devalued dollar in the next 10 years. Buy on dip for eurusd seems to be the right direction. Furthermore, the options expiry at 10am NY time, we shall see a battle of higher price level. Tomorrow, the options price tilt higher, thus the directional bias.
Agree, a US recession might push FOMC for more aggressive cuts inside 2025. But we also have to watch for this scenario. I asked my GSachs agent!

The Fed has been very clear about its data dependency and the need for more evidence that inflation is sustainably moving towards 2%. Recent inflation prints, while showing some progress, haven't been definitively convincing. Moreover, geopolitical tensions (Middle East, trade tariffs) present upside risks to inflation (e.g., through energy prices or import costs). Powell might use this opportunity to push back even harder against aggressive rate cut expectations, emphasizing that the Fed is prepared to keep rates higher for longer if necessary. This would be a "bomb" because even if the market expects some pushback, an aggressive pushback could catch many off guard.

I think that no bomb will drop today and that consolidation will prevail but with a downward bias because of geopolitics right now, unless things cool down.
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  • #13,467
  • Jun 18, 2025 5:11am Jun 18, 2025 5:11am
Quoting josip
DXY H1 trendlines If we get above the red line, we can go higher. (eurusd down) {image}
update
DXY H1
trendlines
we can fall (eurusd up) with pattern: rising wedge and below upper red line...

pic2 EURUSD H1
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DXY1.jpg Size: 138 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 143 KB
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #13,468
  • Jun 18, 2025 6:09am Jun 18, 2025 6:09am
Add long at 1.1493
  • #13,469
  • Jun 18, 2025 7:06am Jun 18, 2025 7:06am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Agree, a US recession might push FOMC for more aggressive cuts inside 2025. But we also have to watch for this scenario. I asked my GSachs agent! The Fed has been very clear about its data dependency and the need for more evidence that inflation is sustainably moving towards 2%. Recent inflation prints, while showing some progress, haven't been definitively convincing. Moreover, geopolitical tensions (Middle East, trade tariffs) present upside risks to inflation (e.g., through energy prices or import costs)....
it sounds good congratuations more
Never Lose Hope
  • #13,470
  • Jun 18, 2025 7:12am Jun 18, 2025 7:12am
Quoting Mr.rama
{quote} it sounds good congratuations more
Thanks Mr.rama
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  • #13,471
  • Jun 18, 2025 9:15am Jun 18, 2025 9:15am
Trump is out making noise!
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  • #13,472
  • Jun 18, 2025 9:34am Jun 18, 2025 9:34am
I think the feds don't want to cut rates right now or too fast and trump knows his and is trying to force their hand, probably the reason for all these "noise making".
  • #13,473
  • Jun 18, 2025 10:10am Jun 18, 2025 10:10am
Bulls need to get rid of the resistance!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_2025-06-18_18-06-10 (1).png Size: 34 KB
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  • #13,474
  • Jun 18, 2025 10:55am Jun 18, 2025 10:55am
The EUR/USD pair has seen modest gains today, hovering around the 1.1500 zone, largely influenced by a softer US Dollar and anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later today. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, continue to be a significant market driver, contributing to a risk-averse sentiment that can benefit the safe-haven USD, but weak US economic data is currently offsetting this.

Support: 1.1483 1.1469 & 1.1457

Resistance: 1.1538, 1.1580 & 1.1600

Next significant news: FOMC Decision

See you tomorrow again!
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  • #13,475
  • Jun 18, 2025 11:36am Jun 18, 2025 11:36am
All waiting for Powell now

i hope he stands his ground
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #13,476
  • Edited 12:06pm Jun 18, 2025 11:53am | Edited 12:06pm
Quoting josip
{quote} update DXY H1 trendlines we can fall (eurusd up) with pattern: rising wedge and below upper red line... pic2 EURUSD H1 {image} {image}
small update
DXY H1
trendlines

Pic2. - eurusd - key level:
below1.15250 is bearish sentiment
above - we can rise to 1.1580 and more...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DXY1.jpg Size: 148 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 148 KB
Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #13,477
  • Jun 18, 2025 10:07pm Jun 18, 2025 10:07pm
DXY near resistance after the pop
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,478
  • Jun 18, 2025 10:11pm Jun 18, 2025 10:11pm
DXY resistance test , a closer look after the pop EURUSD trying to bounce back
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,479
  • Jun 18, 2025 10:14pm Jun 18, 2025 10:14pm
EURUSD Bulls 1.145 level test
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Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2025-06-19 at 04.13.03.jpg Size: 22 KB
  • #13,480
  • Jun 18, 2025 10:33pm Jun 18, 2025 10:33pm
Range here a closer look
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