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The PriceBob Strategy

  • #921
  • Jun 16, 2025 3:20am Jun 16, 2025 3:20am
Quoting giga
{quote} Hi MrReRaise82. Everything is correct, except for one nuance. I tested this method for 5 months on DAX with different filters. But the real result was given by only one filter: always trade long. This is logical, since the stock market is growing globally. But this filter excludes a significant number of trades. Statistically, the best result was obtained if you trade long 1:1 and short 0.62:1. Short trades are just a nice bonus. DAX has been going down for the last week and this bonus is useful.
Thank you very much for the detailed answer. Now I understand why you exited earlier - I was racking my brain, thinking if you were going for 1:1 then why would you exit that early

Your backtesting confirmed what I long suspected, that DAX is a different beast to NQ or ES, it just doesn't make such strong and volatile moves in either direction. The 62% move downwards is very interesting, I will keep it in mind.
  • #922
  • Jun 16, 2025 9:06am Jun 16, 2025 9:06am
Nasdaq Mebob 5minute and one minute. But look at Blues ORB
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #923
  • Edited Jun 17, 2025 1:54am Jun 16, 2025 11:27am | Edited Jun 17, 2025 1:54am
Quoting MrReRaise82
Hi Everyone, I just found the thread today and loving what I am reading, thank you vidvad! Batavia, if you don't mind me asking, I see you are on the same timezone as I am plus you are trading DAX, just like I do. So the question is, on DAX which candle are you taking as ORB? I tried experimenting with the 9:00 CET 5min candle of DAX in recent weeks but it didn't seem that profitable. However, I saw you are really profitable on DAX and was wondering how you are trading it. Also, I saw that you are not necessarily taking every ORB breakout? Also,...
Hi Raise, I draw a price box from the m5 candle that starts at 9.35 and ends at 9.40 am. When price closes below I short, vice versa for long as per post 1. Also I use price action and trade management. Yes, DAX ahead a rough time lately but will recover.

I am not focusing on making profit perse, but learning consistency, preserving my capital and getting my entries right first.

BT
  • #924
  • Jun 16, 2025 11:38am Jun 16, 2025 11:38am
Today trades
Dax: 2 trades both London and US session, both winners.
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  • #925
  • Jun 16, 2025 12:45pm Jun 16, 2025 12:45pm
Quoting BataviaTrade
{quote} Hi Raise, I draw a price box from the m5 candle that starts at 9.35 and ends at 9.40 am. When it closes below I shirt vice versa for long as per post 1. Also I use price action and trade management. Yes, DAX ahead a rough time lately but will recover. I am not focusing on making profit perse, but learning consistency, maintaining my capital and getting my entries right first. BT
Hey, thanks so much for the details. I didn't even think of trading a DAX afternoon ORB-type setup, but of course, I should have!

Congrats on the winners today, I only traded MNQ today but will look at DAX tomorrow for both sessions, intrigued.
  • #926
  • Jun 17, 2025 1:25am Jun 17, 2025 1:25am
Quoting BataviaTrade
{quote} Hi Raise, I draw a price box from the m5 candle that starts at 9.35 and ends at 9.40 am. When it closes below I shirt vice versa for long as per post 1. Also I use price action and trade management. Yes, DAX ahead a rough time lately but will recover. I am not focusing on making profit perse, but learning consistency, preserving my capital and getting my entries right first. BT
Funny thing happened this morning. So I idly wait for the DAX 5min candle that you specified and then enter on a 1min candle break afterwards. Beatiful trade, 26 points winner (could have been a 38 point winner but knocked out my stop that I impatiently brought up).

Anyway, so I log back here wanting to share and realise that I should have traded the 9:35 candle Wrong trade but got lucky
  • #927
  • Jun 17, 2025 1:44am Jun 17, 2025 1:44am
Today trade
DAX: 1 (short), winner
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  • #928
  • Jun 17, 2025 7:03am Jun 17, 2025 7:03am
Just looking at the Nas100 UK time ORB , 8am. And 8:35am mebob produced valuable points and ditto for Dax.
You can can mark the charts up yourselves.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #929
  • Edited 9:44am Jun 17, 2025 9:23am | Edited 9:44am
Quoting BataviaTrade
Today trades Dax: 2 trades both London and US session, both winners. {image}
DAX today 1:1rr using the nearest swing as a SL
LO(+35min): +9k pips
NYO(+35min): -6k pips

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The same using the signal candle as a SL
LO(+35min): +3.5k pips
NYO(+35min): -3.8k pips

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Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #930
  • Jun 17, 2025 10:18am Jun 17, 2025 10:18am
US500 today SL
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Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #931
  • Edited 10:59am Jun 17, 2025 10:34am | Edited 10:59am
Today trades
Not a fruitful day.
US500: 1 loser, 1 small winner, 1 loser
Crude: 1 winner, 1 BE.
Dax: no trading
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  • #932
  • Edited 12:52pm Jun 17, 2025 10:56am | Edited 12:52pm
Hello Vidvad!
Quoting vidvad
reversal bar
As much as I backtest it with fixed bar buy only strategy I get MUUUUUCH more losses then profits on NQ.
Could you please help me - what do I do wrong with your idea? Thank you!
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Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #933
  • Jun 17, 2025 5:41pm Jun 17, 2025 5:41pm
Quoting since80808
Hello Vidvad! {quote} As much as I backtest it with fixed bar buy only strategy I get MUUUUUCH more losses then profits on NQ. Could you please help me - what do I do wrong with your idea? Thank you! {image} {image}
First, I never used M5 fixed bars or reversal bars on NQ. I only used M15 and higher, e.g. M30, M60.

Second, looking at what you have posted, you are 1) using a too large profit target and 2) entering late, often your entry is likely very near where I'd be taking profits.

Third, because you choose FF's "cloak of invisibility" I have no idea where you are, how far ahead of my time you are, and I can't figure out easily what times you are showing me on these charts.

Fourth, these are from December, which means it would have been the early weeks of the June contract. That makes it even more difficult for me to to try to find the same Price action.

Tell me exactly what you are testing here. You say "fixed bar." What bar? What time of day does it trade (when does it open and when does it close - I need both times).

Try to pick some sessions closer to the current date. Unfortunately we just rolled from the June contract to the September contract, which will change the data. However, if you pick some dates closer to the present, I can still get that data to load into my charting software.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #934
  • Jun 18, 2025 12:59am Jun 18, 2025 12:59am
Quoting vidvad
2) entering late
Don't you enter on the break of the RB high?
Quoting vidvad
can't figure out easily what times you are showing
My fault - forget this setting at all. Now opened. GMT+3. (My charts LO=10:00, NYO=16:30)
Quoting vidvad
what you are testing
Inserted Video

This method. As I understand it:
Downtrend, HH candle, enter long on its high break, TP = reference candle size, SL = 1/2 of reference candle size.
Quoting vidvad
pick some sessions closer to the current date
Yesterday M5:
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Yesterday M15:
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Thanks for your time and attention!
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #935
  • Jun 18, 2025 1:02am Jun 18, 2025 1:02am
Today trade
DAX: 1 (long), winner
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  • #936
  • Jun 18, 2025 3:30am Jun 18, 2025 3:30am
Quoting turnip15
Just looking at the Nas100 UK time ORB , 8am. And 8:35am mebob produced valuable points and ditto for Dax. You can can mark the charts up yourselves.
Should add, like Batty, my afternoon (UK time = USA open) was a poor session. But that's the point of looking at twenty trades as Vid always iterates.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #937
  • Jun 18, 2025 6:20am Jun 18, 2025 6:20am
Quoting since80808
Don't you enter on the break of the RB high?
I'm already in the trade. When bars are making lower highs and lower lows, I trail a buy stop above the high of the most recently closed bar. The reversal bar is the first bar to make a higher high than the preceding bar. I enter at the birth of the reversal bar. If you wait for the reversal bar itself to close, and then enter above that bar's high, you will often be getting in very near where I would suggest you be taking profits.

Quoting since80808
This method.
That is M5 ES, not NQ. On the NQ, this is best suited for M15 and higher. If volatility ever returns to normal, then NQ might have a better edge on M5, or even M2 or M1. But right now, I suggest looking to larger data bundles, e.g. 15 minute bars rather than 5 minute bars for the NQ.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #938
  • Jun 18, 2025 6:26am Jun 18, 2025 6:26am
Every instrument has its own character.

Opening Ranges, Fixed bars, and reversal bars will work on almost any market that is freely traded and liquid.

However, you have to do your homework on your market. For the ES, 5 minute bars are reasonable. For others, 15 or een 30 might be better. For gold, I did some work that suggested 30 and 60 minute bars hold interest for me.

Also, one thing that I have not said much about in this thread is the importan pivotal price levels: today's globex open, yesterday's high, low, and closing prices, and last week's high and low are often used by institutional traders as targets and reversal levels.

Yesterday's NQ, as an example, tried 3 times to break above the previous week's high and failed. If you had a take profit order above, it would have been reasonable instead to take your profit at the level of last week's high.
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Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #939
  • Edited 8:04am Jun 18, 2025 7:33am | Edited 8:04am
Today trades:
A mixed bag really. Depressing morning session, but a joyful afternoon I would say.

DAX: +17, -18, +29 pips
JPN: +65 pips
Gold: -50, +107 pips

Done with SP500 and Crude now.
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  • #940
  • Jun 18, 2025 7:44am Jun 18, 2025 7:44am
Quoting vidvad
I enter at the birth of the reversal bar
Ok, does it mean you enter on the break of the last LH? And SL is 1\2 oth the last candle before the reversal candle, right?
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Yesterday stopped anyway, no problem.
Where do you recomend to set the SL then?
Thank you!
Just an opinion. Based on research
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