Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb

EMA Period

Change a little bit EMA for M15 TF to EMA 33 from EMA 50. It would be 8 hours+ based.

EMA 33 not a very good filter after all. Back to EMA 50. This week, there have been many repeated unnecessary trades due to the influence of fellow traders' thoughts in forum threads—something that shouldn't have happened. As for the system, it's a system; follow its detail rules properly so the statistical results don't become blurred. If I trade after the London Open, then I must start after 15:15 local time (currently), not before.

Humans are like that — they say one thing and do another. That’s their weakness, except for a few who are trained to be disciplined and patient, but they are rare (like a title granted by the world (the majority), Al-Amin — the trustworthy — to only one person in the past 1,400 years). Robots are indeed needed to implement automated systems, but robots for MT4 lack the logical language to fully capture the rules created by human-designed systems.

Better Entries Area after 15M London Open

End of the testing period

The system performs well enough when traded according to its rules and as designed—for gaming prop firm challenges or large accounts, not for small accounts that require increasing the risk to above 1%. I believe based on the data we’ve analyzed, it can withstand various market conditions to prevent a drawdown of more than 3% in 3 months period.

The book An Introduction to Ergodicity Economics by Dr. Ole Peters has now been published. A new school of thought for economic theory and practice.
https://ergodicityeconomics.com/an-i...ity-economics/

Nassim Taleb on Risks, Gold, Private Markets, Trump Tariffs

Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” and scientific advisor at Universa Investments, says he doesn’t think the “consciousness of risks” has improved over the last 25 years. He discusses the increasing US deficit, gold as a reserve currency, the opacity of private markets, and why the Trump administration’s approach to tariffs “makes no sense.”

Last Update 24/06/2025
PVSRA TVT 1/3 aDtr 21 – Daily Ranger Gold

Final Rules of 7
1. Pair Selection: Gold/USD.

2. Risk and TP
a. Initial Risk per trade (SL) 1/3 aDtr (21) in pips convert to 1 unit 1.0 %, maximum open position is only 1 unit.
b. TP 1/3 aDtr (21) in pips.

3. Timing Entry and Exit:
a. Timing Entry: Enter in any Range after the EMA clearly turns concave or convex. Better in Range 2 after London Open.
b. Timing Exit:
1. Hit SL or Hit BE+1. Consider put SL to BE+1 after 33% TP (1/9 TP).
2. Hit TP
3. Consider closing open trade at least 15 minutes before red news.

4. Key Entry: The Blue Dragon serves as a trading direction guide.
a. Entry Long, Price is above The Blue Dragon, and The Blue Dragon forms a Convex curve. The entry position should not be too far from it.
b. Entry Short, Price is below The Blue Dragon, and the The Blue Dragon forms a Concave curve. The entry position should not be too far from it.

5. Key Levels, Volumes & Fractals: Pay attention to S/R Levels, to Consolidation above or below Whole/Half Levels, to High Volume activities and It’s Color (Climax Buy or Climax Sell, Raising Buy or Raising Sell), and to Patterns (Fractals) that are generally formed.

6. No trade before and during Red News events. Trade at least 15 minutes after it.

7. Patience and Discipline like an EA (Robot).

Weekly Retun and Monthly Cumulative CAGR

P-Value (Significance) & Rho (ρ, Pearson Correlation Coefficient) in Statistics

1. P-Value (Significance)
Value range: 0 to 1
• Meaning:

1. p = 0 → the result is extremely unlikely to occur by chance (highly "significant").
2. p = 1 → the result is very likely to occur by chance (no significance).
3. So: the smaller the p-value, the more "statistically significant" it is — (but not necessarily important!)

2. Rho (ρ, Pearson Correlation Coefficient)
• Value range: -1 to 1
• Meaning:

1. ρ = +1 → perfect positive correlation (linear increase).
2. ρ = -1 → perfect negative correlation (linear decrease).
3. ρ = 0 → no linear correlation (could be nonlinear or no relationship at all).

Common Reasons Why ρ (Rho) Is Often Ignored:

1. Small correlations look bad — they can make research results appear unimportant.
2. Many researchers (especially in social sciences, biomedicine, etc.) don't understand the importance of effect size.
3. The culture of “p-hacking”: focusing on significant results rather than meaningful ones.
4. Many journal reviewers do not require effect size or correlation reporting → a deeply flawed scientific culture.

2 Types Opportunities:
Based on this post https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15287134

Opportunities in forex can be divided into just two types:

1. When price is at the Top or Bottom of any Time Frame you use — this means price is likely to return to the moving average, whether it's called a reversal or a retracement.
2. When price is in the middle — this refers to when price is at the moving average, and its reaction in that area before experiencing a deviation either to the north or the south, moving quickly away from the moving average.

The first type of setup failed to impress me because it was highly inaccurate. The second type had hints of a trend curvature, at least on the lower time frame. However, both still have the same basic (natural) problem, which is where you place your stop loss and how many percent it is.

Good textbook trade yesterday
USD/JPY

Prop Firm ATFunded Reports 6% of Traders Reached Funded Status in June Trading Data

Old Model 13% TP, 10% Static DD. It's very difficult to beat the old static 1-step or 2-step models because their profit targets are just too high. New Model should be Static Bet Model. There’s no chance for me to buy a new challenge at the moment unless they change their model. Lol This isn’t like Future, because in Future the profit targets are low, even though they still require consistency. The new model will teach you how to trade using a very small percentage of risk (such as 0.5% per trade or max 1%), with more patience, more discipline, and without gambling—even though it’s called the "bet model." Once you get used to it, you’ll become a trader who understands risk and takes only small, calculated risks, and no need to spend too much capital (in gaming prop firm world). No New Model, no more challenge, and say bye-bye to prop firm.

https://www.financemagnates.com/fore...-trading-data/

Try GBP/AUD Long

RR1
49 pips
1%

Greetings and respect.
I didn’t want to bring this up in Mr. TraderAtHome’s thread, as the question about the MT5 version has been asked multiple times without a response from him. Considering that the majority of prop firms use MT5, is there a version of these indicators available for MT5, and have you tested them?
I searched but got lost in this vast sea and couldn’t find anything.
I’d appreciate your help, and thank you in advance.

That is a lot of bollocks right there no wonder he's been revoked lol