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Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

  • #2,101
  • Dec 4, 2006 5:37am Dec 4, 2006 5:37am
I also have the same wave count but my 3 wave is on the monthly and daily. on four hour and hour i have us with complete 12345 cycle and going 78% of the 5 wave on the 4 hour ultimately down further but should be some up and downs first to get to target area on the monthly before finishing wave 5 on the monthly. I have a post on my thread of the weekly and monthly chart with my count.



Quoting itme
What is your wave count for GBP/USD, fixme1too? I will post mine for comparison. I believe we are trading an impulse fifth wave of the complex upwards Third Wave, so my target makes sense to me. Unless the fourth corrective wave is not yet complete. We should be attentive in case this turns out to be the case, but the corrective wave that just occured, in the context of this pattern, seems adequately complete to me.

"itme what do you think of the bounce up to 9822-9847 area instead of 9900's then bounce down to 9660's on the cable"
  • #2,102
  • Dec 4, 2006 7:29am Dec 4, 2006 7:29am
EUR/CHF Update for Monday December 3 at 8:00 ET

EUR/CHF rose to our target of 1.6010 (actually, 1 pip short of our target, in a 100 pip move) which we consider to be the top of Wave 5, and thus the endpoint of a large upwards trend and beginning of a large downwards trend. The target for our short trade to the end of wave 3 of the First Downwards Impulse Wave according to our system is 1.5810, and the price progressed 2 pips past this to 1.5808.

The price then rose 132 pips recently in wave A of wave 4 to 159.40, the predicted conservative top of wave A.

We now expect a wave B down and a wave C up to about 1.5960, then an impulse fifth wave down to about 1.5770; trading this fifth wave down will be our next low risk / high reward trading opportunity.
__________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________

Previous comments:

EUR/CHF - correct wave count <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Friday November 17 at 20:00 ET

EUR/CHF performed exactly as predicted yesterday, forming a clear A-B-C downwards corrective wave down to 1.5960, meeting precisely our most likely reversal price, and then rose 49 pips to 1.6009 at 8:00 ET on November 17, 2 pips higher than our short term adjusted most likely reversal price.The price for EUR/CHF then fell 60 pips precipitously to 1.5948.

We placed a note on our chart "Sell at about 160.10", but in all the business of our morning we forgot to issue a trade signal on this pair.
________________________________________________
EUR/CHF update for Thursday November 16 at 4:00 ET

 EUR/CHF has risen to 1.5995 as predicted, and appears poised to rise once more to the top of the final fifth wave of the fifth wave at about 1.6010 or a bit higher.
_______________________________________

EUR/CHF update for Monday October 16 at 6:00 ET <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1">EUR/CHF rose to 1.5961 on October 13, coming within 9 pips of our predicted turnaround point. That would have been a good short opportunity. The EW pattern is somewhat strange right now, but our prediction for EUR/CHF of September 29 is seemingly still valid:

EUR/CHF prediction - finishing fifth wave <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> Friday September 29 at 4:30 ET

EUR/CHF is headed for 1.5970, 100 pips higher than its current price, which will complete a long uptrend that began on May 17. This would be an opportunity to short it and to hold a position trade from the very endpoint of a weekly trend.
  • #2,103
  • Dec 4, 2006 8:08am Dec 4, 2006 8:08am
Quoting itme
EUR/CHF Update for Monday December 3 at 8:00 ET

We now expect a wave B down and a wave C up to about 1.5960, then an impulse fifth wave down to about 1.5770; trading this fifth wave down will be our next low risk / high reward trading opportunity.
__________________________________________________________
Hiya =)
Sounds good to me, the monthly pin bars left eye's high is at 1.5965 roughly and if the pin works out we should kick off from thereabouts
1.5958-1.5962 seems a spot with resistance, 1.5970 tops one would hope...
I am happy to see that all the very complex wave counts and chart analysis results confirm the single bar from monthly
But seriously, I'm hoping that's what's going to happen, too, and that we'll all make some nice pips =)
Don't be distracted or sidetracked by all the discussion of details itme, if your system requires a lot of focus, diligence and patience then the best thing is to stay strictly focussed yourself, lest small mistakes and miscounts start to snowball into a frustration feedback loop, which isn't nice to experience.

Good luck from me and best wishes,

SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #2,104
  • Dec 4, 2006 8:26am Dec 4, 2006 8:26am
Quoting itme
Dear Lenny,

How can you benefit from the success of another?

1) Most importantly, you will have been presented with convincing evidence that success is possible, and the degree of success that is possible, so that you will have good reason to make the requisite efforts to obtain a suitably high degree of success yourself.

2) You will gain understanding of many of the foundation principles through which success can be achieved, as well as some of the potential challenges and pitfalls on the path to success.

3) I or someone else may make available to you some or all of the information you require to help you achieve financial success, either in the form of a technique, method or theory, or the results of the theory applied to specific markets.

Regarding MM, I have dealt at length with this subject on this and my "From $7 to $7.7 Trillion in 10 Days Trading Program" thread, which was ridiculed and then relegated to a frozen status in the Readers Lounge Section - the dungeon of Forex Factory.

To understand the performance of a trading system, it is very helpful to learn the Itme Theorem of Capital Gains from Short Term Investments which is explained in detail in the above referenced thread, and which states that the return on a winning trade (as a percentage of initial capital) equals the Reward / Risk Ratio times the Risk Factor.

Thus my nominal goal is to develop a super high performance trading system where each trade has a minimum RRR of 5.0, and where the win rate is at least 50%. These two performance criteria, in combination with an even distribution of losses, will in turn allow a Risk Factor of 30% to be employed, which makes the return per winning trade to be 150% of capital, and the losses per losing trade to be 30%, and the return on 40 trades to be over 72,000 times multiplication of capital.

Lenny, I wish I could spell out for you a winning formula for turning you and everyone else here into a millionaire in a few months, but I don't have that information yet, as far as I know. And if I did, my ethics would prevent me from releasing it publicly and freely. I hope to one day be part of a process by which worthy, ethical people can liberate themselves from debt and galling poverty, and actualise their aspirations for a better quality of life for themselves and their communities, and help achieve the reduction of global poverty, disease, injustice, war, ignorance, cruelty, environmental disruption, and unnecesary interference by manmade institutions on individual rights and freedoms.
Thank your for your detailed response!

My question did not come from getting rich overnight stand point of view. Nor ti came from the stand point of applying someone else work and knowledge to advance my financial status.

I do understand that your system is complex and that you do not have much time or bandwith to discuss the details of the interanls of how you are building your system. However, I believe that some might be able to provide valuable input at least in the areas where you are still learning, in particular Elliott Waves. Even if you are in a great position to analyze the waves, I think that it might be beneficial to see different points of view and adjust if deemed necessary.

That is just one area where opening the "block box" might be beneficial. I am sure the same can be said about economics, Ganns etc...

Also referring to your success comments, I personally believe that until a trader adopts a sytem and makes it hos own, he/she will not be sucessfull. I do not believe in following anything without theoral undersatnding of the system and oneself and combining those 2 together.

I hope to continue learning from you in this thread. And thank you for all your tirelless work

Regards
  • #2,105
  • Dec 4, 2006 9:15am Dec 4, 2006 9:15am
I don't understand your method, but I appreciate your support and confirmation of the anticipated reversal.
  • #2,106
  • Dec 4, 2006 9:28am Dec 4, 2006 9:28am
Sorry if I seemed to make unwarranted assumptions about you, Lenny, I didn't mean to. Sometimes I just use some question as an opportunity to editorialise or explain something for my own clarification and to inform others. Nothing personal!

As far as the collegiate aspect. I agree, but it's difficult for a variety of reasons. Mostly because I have my own approach to Elliott Wave theory, as each elliottician does, and only know a few people or systems which follow a similar path - Phincorp and Elliott Wave International among them. I often disagree with Elliottician.com. There is too little information in most of the charts shown on the EW threads here to even initiate a discussion, and the charts I've seen don't conform to basic concepts as I understand them. My other model is proprietary and unlike anything anyone else I know of is doing, so there is no possibility of collaborating except with my trainees, of which there are three right now who are doing daily analysis.

Regarding fundamentals and announcements, I read various other threads and welcome comments by fundamentalists on this thread.

Regarding opinions based on other systems, I find them interesting, and welcome them, but only with a quizzical interest, because they form no part of my trading system, and I usually don't understand them. If I notice someone who can consistently predict the market, then that will awaken my curiousity. Even fibonaccis play no part in my trading system in its current version, as I don't know how anyone is able to employ them to make low risk / high reward trades.
  • #2,107
  • Dec 4, 2006 9:31am Dec 4, 2006 9:31am
Quoting itme
I don't understand your method, but I appreciate your support and confirmation of the anticipated reversal.
Hi itme,
I was referencing price action based trading like in some of my prior posts, in this particular case the pin bar which can be pretty powerful.
There are more details in James' public thread as mentioned before as well

Best wishes,

SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #2,108
  • Dec 4, 2006 9:53am Dec 4, 2006 9:53am
Quoting itme
.... I often disagree with Elliottician.com. ....Regarding fundamentals and announcements, I read various other threads and welcome comments by fundamentalists on this thread.

Regarding opinions based on other systems, I find them interesting, and welcome them, but only with a quizzical interest, because they form no part of my trading system, and I usually don't understand them. If I notice someone who can consistently predict the market, then that will awaken my curiousity. Even fibonaccis play no part in my trading system in its current version, as I don't know how anyone is able to employ them to make low risk / high reward trades.
??
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ad.php?t=10240
  • #2,109
  • Dec 4, 2006 10:11am Dec 4, 2006 10:11am
I watched Elliottician.com for several months, and didn't understand much of their wave counting system, and often disagreed with their wave counts.Many of their analyses were somewhat vague, and basically covered whatever could happen. But every now and then they recommended taking a position in the market at a specific price, with a specific target. Many were seemingly successful in the long term, but not necessarily before the market went the wrong direction first. I also saw some incorrect predictions. However, I noted that their trade recommendations were very conservative, with large stops, and were obviously designed to be successful based on the fundamentals of EW Theory. I was trading on a shorter time frame, and using small stops, so I really didn't pay that careful attention to their occasional trade recommendations. However, they always clearly displayed links where each and every one of their trade recommendations going back many months were displayed, along with a detailed description of what the market did and whether the trade was successful. I doubt they were dishonest in this detailed self-analysis, and I find their claims of 85% successful trade recommendations credible based on what I saw. However, that would not translate into a high performance trading system, because the RRR would be close to 1:1, meaning even though they won most trades, the return on capital would be small for each winning trade. I started the thread you linked to in order to fish for more information on this service. I also noted quite a bit of innovation and improvement to the service they were providing during the time I subscribed, which indicated energy, intelligence and creativity were behind their service.
  • #2,110
  • Dec 4, 2006 10:25am Dec 4, 2006 10:25am
Quoting itme
I watched Elliottician.com for several months, and didn't understand much of their wave counting system, and often disagreed with their wave counts.Many of their analyses were somewhat vague, and basically covered whatever could happen. But every now and then they recommended taking a position in the market at a specific price, with a specific target. Many were seemingly successful in the long term, but not necessarily before the market went the wrong direction first. I also saw some incorrect predictions. However, I noted that their trade recommendations were very conservative, with large stops, and were obviously designed to be successful based on the fundamentals of EW Theory. I was trading on a shorter time frame, and using small stops, so I really didn't pay that careful attention to their occasional trade recommendations. However, they always clearly displayed links where each and every one of their trade recommendations going back many months were displayed, along with a detailed description of what the market did and whether the trade was successful. I doubt they were dishonest in this detailed self-analysis, and I find their claims of 85% successful trade recommendations credible based on what I saw. However, that would not translate into a high performance trading system, because the RRR would be close to 1:1, meaning even though they won most trades, the return on capital would be small for each winning trade. I started the thread you linked to in order to fish for more information on this service. I also noted quite a bit of innovation and improvement to the service they were providing during the time I subscribed, which indicated energy, intelligence and creativity were behind their service.
OK, pardon I understand. Since you wanted to fish for info, here is some

http://www.cftc.gov/opa/enf03/opa4789-03.htm

http://www.cftc.gov/files/enf/03orde...-complaint.pdf
  • #2,111
  • Dec 4, 2006 10:32am Dec 4, 2006 10:32am
Quoting wwwin
OK, pardon I understand. Since you wanted to fish for info, here is some

http://www.cftc.gov/opa/enf03/opa4789-03.htm

http://www.cftc.gov/files/enf/03orde...-complaint.pdf
wwwin,

you made your point. there is no reason to be sarcastic imho
  • #2,112
  • Dec 4, 2006 10:38am Dec 4, 2006 10:38am
Quoting itme
Sorry if I seemed to make unwarranted assumptions about you, Lenny, I didn't mean to. Sometimes I just use some question as an opportunity to editorialise or explain something for my own clarification and to inform others. Nothing personal!

As far as the collegiate aspect. I agree, but it's difficult for a variety of reasons. Mostly because I have my own approach to Elliott Wave theory, as each elliottician does, and only know a few people or systems which follow a similar path - Phincorp and Elliott Wave International among them. I often disagree with Elliottician.com. There is too little information in most of the charts shown on the EW threads here to even initiate a discussion, and the charts I've seen don't conform to basic concepts as I understand them. My other model is proprietary and unlike anything anyone else I know of is doing, so there is no possibility of collaborating except with my trainees, of which there are three right now who are doing daily analysis.

Regarding fundamentals and announcements, I read various other threads and welcome comments by fundamentalists on this thread.

Regarding opinions based on other systems, I find them interesting, and welcome them, but only with a quizzical interest, because they form no part of my trading system, and I usually don't understand them. If I notice someone who can consistently predict the market, then that will awaken my curiousity. Even fibonaccis play no part in my trading system in its current version, as I don't know how anyone is able to employ them to make low risk / high reward trades.
Thank you for your response. No offense was taken and I completely understand where you were comming from.

I still believe that there might a better and more efficient way to ellaborate here. But since I do not know all the moving pieces it is difficult for me to recommend anything.

I could inly say that Elliott Wave view can differ from one to another and sometimes it is beneficial to solicit other points of view. I have been following Miner and Bill Williams method but I have adopted them for myself within other price pattern strategies for shorter term trading and constantly search for low risk hogh reward trades based on those formations.

Hope to find something beneficial with the way you have been utlizing this approach
  • #2,113
  • Dec 4, 2006 1:52pm Dec 4, 2006 1:52pm
itme

It seems like yesterday you were predicting a serious recovery (<8600)by January next year and (possibly) a high of 9150 - 9200 before.

Gven the Friday close of 9800, what is your revised prediction?

Best regards
  • #2,114
  • Edited 5:26pm Dec 4, 2006 5:12pm | Edited 5:26pm
Monday December 4 at 18:00 ET

Based on the current wave pattern I believe that we are in the Wave B of the downwards corrective A-B-C Wave 4, and that the turnaround point is 1.9834. This is in agreement with the price movement suggested earlier by FixMe1-2.

Therefore adjust target for Trade Experiment #269 Buy GBP/USD at 1.9742 to 1.9834.

If this target is hit, then the profit for this trade is 88 pips. The current price is 1.9810.

After reversing at about 1.9834 the price is expected to drop about 110 pips to about 1.9725, which will be a potential low risk / high reward trade opportunity going long on GBP/USD.

_________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________

Previous trade experiment:

Monday December 4 at 00:00 ET

On Friday December 1st GBP/USD rose to 1.9846, slightly higher than my conservative prediction from earlier that day ("GBP/USD uptrend is headed for 1.9830/35 (hit 1.9846)", a point which I interpret as the top of Wave 3.3.5 (the top of an extended Wave 3). Following an extended Wave 3 comes a medium sized complex A-B-C Wave 4. This downwards Wave 4 will be completed we believe at about 1.9742, to be followed by an impulse Wave 5 up to at least 1.9900.

Trade Experiment #269 Buy GBP/USD at 1.9742
Stop is 1.9707
Target is 1.9900
Risk is 39 pips
Reward is 154 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 4.0 to 1

For research purposes only.

Note: Because this is a strong upwards trend, the corrective waves are not very large. Furthermore, because we are nearing the end of the large upwards trend, the last Wave 5 impulse wave may not be very large. Thus the RRR of this trade is only 4.0:1, which does not meet the minimum standard for our evolving trading system.

p.s. - GBP/USD just fell to 1.9739 at 3:10 ET December 4, 2006

p.p.s. - GBP/USD fell in a tortured pattern (check the 1 minute chart) to 1.9724 as of 3:30 ET. 1.9725 is a triple timeframe confirmed high probability reversal point.
  • #2,115
  • Dec 4, 2006 5:18pm Dec 4, 2006 5:18pm
itme, what timeframe are you looking at for this Corrective ABC?

Monarch
  • #2,116
  • Dec 4, 2006 5:18pm Dec 4, 2006 5:18pm
I meant GBP/USD?

Monarch
  • #2,117
  • Edited 8:03pm Dec 4, 2006 5:25pm | Edited 8:03pm
Estimated time of arrival for top of Wave B is December 5 at 1:30 ET to 2:00 ET and bottom of Wave C is December 5 at 10:00 ET.
  • #2,118
  • Dec 4, 2006 5:53pm Dec 4, 2006 5:53pm
Quoting itme
Estimated time of arrival for Wave B is December 5 at 2:00 ET and Wave C is December 5 at 10:00 ET.
It take some skill to predict the 1)direction of a trade, but when someone can also predict the 2)distance in pips then they're pretty damn good. But when they go even further and predict the 3)duration of a trade...I don't know what to even call that, it's absolutely insane. Damn. that really puts things into perspective and makes me realize how little I know about forex. Regardless if Itme is right or not, just the fact that she has a model that might be able to predict this...
  • #2,119
  • Dec 4, 2006 5:56pm Dec 4, 2006 5:56pm
Itme i had 9822 but we may not see it may only give us the 9820 we have pretty doji on the hourly chart. I think she is ready to go down now to 9660's



Quoting itme
What is your wave count for GBP/USD, fixme1too? I will post mine for comparison. I believe we are trading an impulse fifth wave of the complex upwards Third Wave, so my target makes sense to me. Unless the fourth corrective wave is not yet complete. We should be attentive in case this turns out to be the case, but the corrective wave that just occured, in the context of this pattern, seems adequately complete to me.

"itme what do you think of the bounce up to 9822-9847 area instead of 9900's then bounce down to 9660's on the cable"
  • #2,120
  • Dec 4, 2006 6:57pm Dec 4, 2006 6:57pm
Yes, FixMe1Too, it is possible for GBP/USD to reverse at about 1.9820, but my earlier predicition of 1.9834 is the most likely target from the perspective of my model. As far as the lower endpoint, it is possible for it to descend farther than we stated which was 1.9725, to 1.9690, which is another high probability reversal value. A descent into the 1.9660's is also possible.

"Itme i had 9822 but we may not see it may only give us the 9820 we have pretty doji on the hourly chart. I think she is ready to go down now to 9660's"

- FixMe1Too

_______________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________

Previous Experimental Trade Signal:

Adjust target for Trade Experiment #269 Buy GBP/USD to 1.9834 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message --> Monday December 4 at 18:00 ET

Based on the current wave pattern I believe that we are in the Wave B of the downwards corrective A-B-C Wave 4, and that the turnaround point is 1.9834. This is in agreement with the price movement suggested earlier by FixMe1-2.

Therefore adjust target for Trade Experiment #269 Buy GBP/USD at 1.9742 to 1.9834.

If this target is hit, then the profit for this trade is 88 pips. The current price is 1.9810.

After reversing at about 1.9834 the price is expected to drop about 110 pips to about 1.9725, which will be a potential low risk / high reward trade opportunity going long on GBP/USD.
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