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The Swamp

  • #123,301
  • Edited 7:36am Jun 13, 2025 3:34am | Edited 7:36am
pa may blow through past 1430.8.. Normally it bounces there 50/50% 40/80 pips. The chances for 1389 is increasing. 1430.8 and 1389 are attractors.. 1389 probably has a 60% shot today. 1430.8 can turn into R later
The next 1.5 hs breaking below 1510 can get it to 1430x
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  • #123,302
  • Edited 8:08am Jun 13, 2025 7:37am | Edited 8:08am
Quoting gatorinla
pa may blow through past 1430.8.. Normally it bounces there 50/50% 40/80 pips. The chances for 1389 is increasing. 1430.8 and 1389 are attractors.. 1389 probably has a 60% shot today. 1430.8 can turn into R later The next 1.5 hs breaking below 1510 can get it to 1430x {image}
My guess over 1430.8 is this atm is a bull trap toward LC.. My guess is it will fade into next week down. Timing wise it wont hit lc. It may stall 1550ish.. A LH. Once the liquid is grabbed it can fade down the rest of the day
.. need to check the close to have a better outlook
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  • #123,303
  • Jun 13, 2025 8:02am Jun 13, 2025 8:02am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} My guess over 1430.8 is this atm is a bull trap toward LC.. My guess is it will fade into next week down. Timing wise it wont hit lc. It may stall 1450ish.. A LH. Once the liquid is grabbed it can fade down the rest of the day .. need to check the close to have a better outlook {image}
My indicator is telling me I'm wrong. Not getting back to 1582 is often a sign opposite of the indicator. In 30 min if pa is below 1544.. it leans to fade down.. above more to bulls
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,304
  • Jun 13, 2025 8:27am Jun 13, 2025 8:27am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} My indicator is telling me I'm wrong. Not getting back to 1582 is often a sign opposite of the indicator. In 30 min if pa is below 1544.. it leans to fade down.. above more to bulls
its odd that bull seeems strong and bounced off on green us news, above 1560 they are back in control
with the time left may not see 1430 today.

if we close the week under 1500 may still be a good news to bear otherwise mayb bull?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,305
  • Jun 13, 2025 8:44am Jun 13, 2025 8:44am
Quoting gatorinla
pa is likely bullish sustained above 1601. But if unable to hold above 1301 and rise. A long at 1510/1480 could be a bounce point. Its bullish, but if it fails to hold above 1601. Larger players in COT was still holding more shorts. So watch those for either direction. below 1510 and 1480 is probably bearish. If given a chance I may post something close to a decent dynamic turn
it dropped 125 ish pips.. there was in the post.. But it also has another larger spot probably for Monday Tuesday.. Asia and now can be the Monday pump. When tired 1430.8 attraction may be their fade target. It was/is 180ish pips from todays atm high. Almost 2 adr. Anyway i plan the fade the rise toward 1430. without a live rejection look its hard to say when.. anytime now 1560/85 area may look toppy. That 30 min close above 1544 lead the way some. The bullish signal said the same. 1582 is expired.. pa may have some residual memory since its the highest lc this year so far
A few very high % things are still falling to the bulls. Last week and this week. Even with COT in the bears favor. When this thing blows.. dont be in the way. Holding a long over the weekend may turn out bad
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,306
  • Jun 13, 2025 9:59am Jun 13, 2025 9:59am
Quoting johncen
{quote} its odd that bull seeems strong and bounced off on green us news, above 1560 they are back in control with the time left may not see 1430 today. if we close the week under 1500 may still be a good news to bear otherwise mayb bull?
monday and even now pa often goes opposite of Cot.. but often settles back later.. Its on the bullish trajectory since this years low..I ignored the long signal but it was correct. Anyway its risen the 40/80 pips here. just not from 1430..
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  • #123,307
  • Jun 13, 2025 10:08am Jun 13, 2025 10:08am
A new one comes later
retailors are 2 to 1 long. they were right this week and earlier
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  • #123,308
  • Jun 13, 2025 1:32pm Jun 13, 2025 1:32pm
Quoting gatorinla
A new one comes later retailors are 2 to 1 long. they were right this week and earlier {image}
new one
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  • #123,309
  • Jun 13, 2025 1:46pm Jun 13, 2025 1:46pm
COT Summary Comparison EU
Current Report June 3, 2025

4 or fewer traders SHORT: 33.6%
8 or fewer traders SHORT: 46.6%

Previous Report May 27, 2025
4 or fewer traders SHORT: 32.5%
8 or fewer traders SHORT: 45.9%

Interpretation
Slight Increase in Short Concentration
+1.1% for top 4+0.7% for top 8These traders added more weight to the short side.
That means the biggest players in the market became more bearish week over week — or at least added shorts, not reduced them.
There's no sign of short covering yet, so no bullish signal here.
Bottom Line:
Still bearish — and slightly more aggressive than the previous week.
If price rises despite this, it could trigger a short squeeze later — but as of this report, big money is still pressing downside risk.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,310
  • Edited 10:46pm Jun 13, 2025 2:10pm | Edited 10:46pm
Week closed under 1560 but above 1500 1430.

let see what Monday has to offer

2 weeks til month end
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,311
  • Jun 14, 2025 6:24pm Jun 14, 2025 6:24pm
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,312
  • Edited 2:06pm Jun 15, 2025 1:55pm | Edited 2:06pm
Quoting johncen
Week closed under 1560 but above 1500 1430. let see what Monday has to offer 2 weeks til month end
If it falls, 1430 may be important. My day and 12h are at odds. A slight increase it COT shorts.. wk month Q 6mith yr look up. But it can shift.. 14.2% is out of normal in 6 months.
The average 6mth candle is 876
Gap down looks good 1524.. It may poke the liquid 1582 ish and fall It may test 1544 and wick..down.. see where it closes
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,313
  • Jun 15, 2025 2:14pm Jun 15, 2025 2:14pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If it falls, 1430 may be important. My day and 12h are at odds. A slight increase it COT shorts.. wk month Q 6mith yr look up. But it can shift.. 14.2% is out of normal in 6 months. The average 6mth candle is 876 Gap down looks good 1524.. It may poke the liquid 1582 ish and fall It may test 1544 and wick..down.. see where it closes
i also have 1544 on my chart
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,314
  • Jun 15, 2025 2:53pm Jun 15, 2025 2:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If it falls, 1430 may be important. My day and 12h are at odds. A slight increase it COT shorts.. wk month Q 6mith yr look up. But it can shift.. 14.2% is out of normal in 6 months. The average 6mth candle is 876 Gap down looks good 1524.. It may poke the liquid 1582 ish and fall It may test 1544 and wick..down.. see where it closes
I think it poked the liquid Friday evening. The gap below LC lean's bearish.. I know some wait for it to close. it may run to 1430ish first .. it may be going to 1430.. it has a 50/50 shot from there to bounce 40/80 pips.. usually slipping below after
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  • #123,315
  • Jun 16, 2025 1:01am Jun 16, 2025 1:01am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If it falls, 1430 may be important. My day and 12h are at odds. A slight increase it COT shorts.. wk month Q 6mith yr look up. But it can shift.. 14.2% is out of normal in 6 months. The average 6mth candle is 876 Gap down looks good 1524.. It may poke the liquid 1582 ish and fall It may test 1544 and wick..down.. see where it closes
I didnt think it would reach.. But it is bullish.. Now if it drops and closes the next h down below 1544..It may be headed to 1430..
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  • #123,316
  • Jun 16, 2025 1:02am Jun 16, 2025 1:02am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I didnt think it would reach.. But it is bullish.. Now if it drops and closes the next h down below 1544..I may be headed to 1430..
sharing the same view here, if we dont get rejected at the current level and start closing low, man we are setting new highs
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,317
  • Jun 16, 2025 1:36am Jun 16, 2025 1:36am
dropping 40 pips now in 24 mins seems hard for bear to achieve
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,318
  • Jun 16, 2025 1:58am Jun 16, 2025 1:58am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I think it poked the liquid Friday evening. The gap below LC lean's bearish.. I know some wait for it to close. it may run to 1430ish first .. it may be going to 1430.. it has a 50/50 shot from there to bounce 40/80 pips.. usually slipping below after
Personally, I am still waiting for the close to confirm the direction. 1430 looks like a potential target before the pullback.
  • #123,319
  • Jun 16, 2025 2:24am Jun 16, 2025 2:24am
it poked the pool.. It is bullish.. Cot larger traders sold more than the week before. Monday in Asia, early London against COT is often a fake move. Pump away from Cot's direction before a decent pull toward it. But all I see is bullish signs.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,320
  • Jun 16, 2025 2:36am Jun 16, 2025 2:36am
Quoting gatorinla
it poked the pool.. It is bullish.. Cot larger traders sold more than the week before. Monday in Asia, early London against COT is often a fake move. Pump away from Cot's direction before a decent pull toward it. But all I see is bullish signs.
could b double top at 1630? Not sure there is no sign of bear
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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