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  • #3,641
  • Jun 11, 2025 7:51am Jun 11, 2025 7:51am
Natural Gas Nov-Dec spread

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(Note: spreadcharts.com charts above are 3 months delayed feed as I use free version. Look at the top barchart.com chart for the current price.)

I'd like to wait until early August and buy this spread (betting to spread narrowing). This is counter seasonality trading and you need to be cautious. Spread can expand far bigger than you expected. Limit your leverage.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,642
  • Jun 11, 2025 8:09am Jun 11, 2025 8:09am
How to start Spread Trading

If you want to trade nat gas spread like me, first, you need to choose proper broker who can handle spread trading properly. Although, you can simply buy and sell each leg separately but in this case, you unnecessarily need to pay much higher margin. Ask your broker like this: "I'd like to trade natural gas futures spread. Do you respect CME SPAN margin for spread trading?"
Most popular brokers like Interactive Brokers or TD Ameritrade won't respect SPAN margin. AMP Futures may respect it as I used to trading spread using this broker. If you cannot find proper brokers, Advantage Futures is your choice. This is one of the professional brokers who has the lowest minimum initial funding requirement.
Hope it helps.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,643
  • Jun 12, 2025 5:23am Jun 12, 2025 5:23am
Quoting heispark
{quote} I am stuck in a mud ground and getting tired..... Spending all the huge time and effort and still no progress.... As I promised to myself, I will do this shit until the end of this year. If I still won't make it, I will gladly go back to spread trading and forget about day trading until I die. I cannot do this dunning krugering forever. Modern day market manipulation is something average people cannot crack. {image} Dunning Krugering: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post12608271 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post12584100...
Looks getting improved slowly... looks good, feels good.....
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,644
  • Jun 12, 2025 10:57am Jun 12, 2025 10:57am
Currently at around $3.500 level and it looks the price would go below it perhaps tomorrow.... Nat gas price usually goes down on Friday before weekend.
Moving average is the most powerful indicator. Not sure how people even can trade without it....
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By the way, I changed to bar chart instead of candlestick. I like its simplicity with mono color.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,645
  • Jun 12, 2025 11:51am Jun 12, 2025 11:51am
Quoting heispark
The followings came from Nutty Bar Trading. Basically their tactics are similar: buy tons of accounts and blow them up until you get payouts. That's not my style obviously. I don't like this game. {image} {image} https://youtu.be/4iqyZXufRY8?si=mgoDc-BK2QLZEBxK
NBT was caught this time. Even after many years, day trading is really really difficult indeed........
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,646
  • Jun 12, 2025 8:25pm Jun 12, 2025 8:25pm
Quoting heispark
Currently at around $3.500 level and it looks the price would go below it perhaps tomorrow.... Nat gas price usually goes down on Friday before weekend. Moving average is the most powerful indicator. Not sure how people even can trade without it.... {image} {image} By the way, I changed to bar chart instead of candlestick. I like its simplicity with mono color.
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It's rare nat gas reacts to geopolitical headline news... Anyway, I sold into the initial reaction of Iran strike news. My position is 1/4 sized QG. Let me see....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,647
  • Jun 13, 2025 1:59am Jun 13, 2025 1:59am
Quoting heispark
{quote} {image} It's rare nat gas reacts to geopolitical headline news... Anyway, I sold into the initial reaction of Iran strike news. My position is 1/4 sized QG. Let me see....
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,648
  • Jun 13, 2025 10:40am Jun 13, 2025 10:40am
Iran strike didn't affect the nat gas price as expected. Nymex nat gas futures is still for U.S. domestic market. It's still pretty much bearish and I will be looking for sell opportunities next week after some decent pull-back...

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,649
  • Edited Jun 14, 2025 5:28am Jun 13, 2025 6:06pm | Edited Jun 14, 2025 5:28am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Looks getting improved slowly... looks good, feels good..... {image}
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,650
  • Jun 16, 2025 2:52am Jun 16, 2025 2:52am
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Monday gap opening. Gap play is always tricky. A common myth among retailers is "gaps are always filled". Market manipulators well know that and enjoy making traps in both sides..... Anyway, bullish momentum looks strong at the moment.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,651
  • Jun 16, 2025 5:07am Jun 16, 2025 5:07am
Sandwiched by multiple AVWAPs and channels. Expect somewhat wider consolidation or range bound for days....
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,652
  • Jun 16, 2025 12:15pm Jun 16, 2025 12:15pm
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It looks it's getting more bullish. I will wait until price comes back and properly test 50 and 200 EMAs and fills the gap properly. You don't want to leave untested 50 and 200 EMAs behind you because price often changes its direction quickly and retests them.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,653
  • Jun 17, 2025 7:40am Jun 17, 2025 7:40am
I need some deep pull-back before enter a long position. The gap is still not fully filled. Target is ABCD harmonic.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,654
  • Jun 18, 2025 8:03am Jun 18, 2025 8:03am
Trend is obviously bullish but there's really nothing I can do at this time until price comes way back down to 200 EMA of 1H chart. Until this 200 EMA, entering long position is not safe at all. It looks far away from current price but when it wants to come down, it can be quicker than you may think.
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Just waiting.........
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,655
  • Edited 4:40pm Jun 18, 2025 8:23am | Edited 4:40pm
In modern markets market manipulators plant booby traps everywhere. Don't trust what you see on the screen if you want to survive in this battle filed longer. Price action? That's also one of the beloved booby traps they use!
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,656
  • Jun 18, 2025 8:46am Jun 18, 2025 8:46am
Alpine blew 13 accounts again. It's just same, gambling with high leverage as their loss is limited to the cost they paid. They just take advantage of the weak point of prop firm systems. It won't last long anyway.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,657
  • Jun 26, 2025 8:38am Jun 26, 2025 8:38am
I lost two out of 5 payout accounts this week and unsubscribed all the other eval accounts. It turned out I am not ready yet. WTF...
I didn't expect such a deep, one way direction pull back... Good thing is I still have 3 payout accounts with about $500 buffer to hit trailing stops. My private live account also has some $1800 DD... Hope I can bail it out without much suffering soon.
Whenever big mouth Justin is silent, it should provably because I have some big loss or DD.... I hate day trading.

By the way, I bought a Nov-Dec spread yesterday (betting to spread narrowing).
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,658
  • Jun 26, 2025 6:56pm Jun 26, 2025 6:56pm
Quoting heispark
Sold July-August spread of next year. It will take long time before harvest. {image} By the way, when you hold far away calendar spreads, you should work with a professional broker who knows how to handle spread properly. This is important. Otherwise occasional bad tick can liquidate or mess up your positions. It happened multiple times for me with AMP Futures. Most discounted cheap brokers won't handle spreads properly including Interactive Brokers and TD Ameritrade.
Hum.... I exited too too early I guess.
This is the power of seasonality!!
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(Note that spreadcharts.com charts are 3 months delayed feed. Current expired price is in the barchart.com chart.)
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,659
  • Jun 27, 2025 4:51pm Jun 27, 2025 4:51pm
Quoting heispark
I lost two out of 5 payout accounts this week and unsubscribed all the other eval accounts. It turned out I am not ready yet. WTF... I didn't expect such a deep, one way direction pull back... Good thing is I still have 3 payout accounts with about $500 buffer to hit trailing stops. My private live account also has some $1800 DD... Hope I can bail it out without much suffering soon. Whenever big mouth Justin is silent, it should provably because I have some big loss or DD.... I hate...
I think I can bail out next week.......
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Bruce is quite good at TA.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,660
  • Edited 10:05am Jun 28, 2025 9:50am | Edited 10:05am
Quoting heispark
5 Strategies for Day Trading with the Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA) https://forex-station.com/viewtopic....61#p1295372961
ALMA for MT5

https://www.mql5.com/en/code/16847
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File Type: mq5 alma_1_1.mq5   7 KB | 161 downloads

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File Type: pdf Alma.pdf   257 KB | 204 downloads


<ChatGPT answered to "Is ALMA moving average is better than others?">
-------------------------
The ALMA (Arnaud Legoux Moving Average) is often considered superior to traditional moving averages (like SMA, EMA, or WMA) in specific trading contexts, particularly day trading or short-term trading, because of its ability to reduce lag while preserving smoothness.
Here's a breakdown to help evaluate if ALMA is “better” than other MAs for your needs:
Advantages of ALMA

  1. Reduced Lag:

    1. ALMA uses a Gaussian distribution and offsets to center the price data, which minimizes lag more effectively than EMA or WMA.



  2. Smooth Output:

    1. Despite being more responsive, it’s smoother and less noisy than traditional MAs — useful in fast-moving markets.



  3. Flexible Customization:

    1. You can adjust the offset and sigma (smoothing) parameters to fine-tune how fast or smooth it reacts.



Potential Drawbacks

  1. Complexity:

    1. It’s more complex than SMA or EMA, making it harder to intuitively understand or manually calculate.



  2. Parameter Sensitivity:

    1. Improper tuning (especially of offset and sigma) can lead to poor performance.



  3. Not Universally Better:

    1. No MA is best in all market conditions. ALMA works well in trending or moderately volatile markets, but not necessarily in choppy sideways ones.



Best Use Cases for ALMA

  1. Intraday or high-frequency trading
  2. Breakout strategies
  3. Filtering signals (e.g., trend confirmation or pullbacks)

Comparison at a Glance
TypeLagSmoothnessReactivityIdeal For
SMAHighMediumLowGeneral trend
EMAMediumLowHighFast signals
WMAMediumLowMediumVolume-weighted ideas
ALMALowHighMedium-HighIntraday, filtering, smoother signals
Bottom Line
Yes, ALMA can be better than others — if you need a low-lag, smooth moving average and are willing to tune the parameters. It shines in day trading, especially for trend confirmation or entry filtering. However, always backtest it with your specific strategy before replacing more common MAs like EMA or VWMA.
Would you like help setting up ALMA with recommended parameters for a specific platform (e.g., TradingView, Quantower, MotiveWave)?
-------------------------

Moving average indicators are much much better than oscillator based indicators. I ditched CCI recently again.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
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