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The Swamp

  • #123,221
  • Jun 3, 2025 7:04pm Jun 3, 2025 7:04pm
1392/1418 has some R value.. some dynamic in the 1428 zone.. If may wick and fall.. Sustained above this may be bullish. breakout bullish if sustained above 1428.. Its also a liquid poo; area 1392/1418/28. that's why it may wick and fall. It never reached 1352
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  • #123,222
  • Jun 3, 2025 7:26pm Jun 3, 2025 7:26pm
Quoting gatorinla
1392/1418 has some R value.. some dynamic in the 1428 zone.. If may wick and fall.. Sustained above this may be bullish. breakout bullish if sustained above 1428.. Its also a liquid poo; area 1392/1418/28. that's why it may wick and fall. It never reached 1352
If my ea finds a short trade in the 1392/1418/28 area. It will take it
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  • #123,223
  • Jun 4, 2025 3:42am Jun 4, 2025 3:42am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If my ea finds a short trade in the 1392/1418/28 area. It will take it {image}
I normally dont take a short until 1432.. It may not make it there
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,224
  • Jun 4, 2025 4:09am Jun 4, 2025 4:09am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If my ea finds a short trade in the 1392/1418/28 area. It will take it {image}
I had the signal to take the trade, but not the distance
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,225
  • Jun 4, 2025 5:36am Jun 4, 2025 5:36am
It may hit 1352 this time
if it closes a 4h under 1399.. It probably going a adr under 1399 this week
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  • #123,226
  • Jun 4, 2025 4:33pm Jun 4, 2025 4:33pm
possible long 1.1399/1.14 area 10ish pip stop. tp 60/100 pips
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  • #123,227
  • Jun 4, 2025 7:55pm Jun 4, 2025 7:55pm
I suspect Trump is cooking the labor and inflation books.. Firing the people who do the work is happening
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  • #123,228
  • Jun 5, 2025 3:12am Jun 5, 2025 3:12am
Quoting gatorinla
I suspect Trump is cooking the labor and inflation books.. Firing the people who do the work is happening
For this to work.. the close in 1h needs to be above 1415.. better above 1433+, closing. if it falls back to 1399/1400 it may have the spring back, if does manage the 1415+ close.
It may not come back to 1399 to get the spring action. It often will.. Like a touch of a hot stove withdrawal. A stop loss is needed because it happens off a high rejection too. The spring action is hopfully the stronger reaction to long from 1400ish . A close above 1415 is likely to allow it to get the 60 100. But if it stalls 1460+.. it may be back to 1352 Friday. If it dont close the h above 1415.. A rise has less power
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  • #123,229
  • Jun 5, 2025 3:45am Jun 5, 2025 3:45am
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  • #123,230
  • Jun 5, 2025 4:46am Jun 5, 2025 4:46am
Quoting gatorinla
{image}
that close did not give the stronger continuation sign. But it still has the 1399/1400 bounce potential.. It may be limited in height now.. It may be less reward at 1435 or 1340 than 1460 or 1500.. The risk about 10 pips remains
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  • #123,231
  • Jun 5, 2025 5:16am Jun 5, 2025 5:16am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}that close did not give the stronger continuation sign. But it still has the 1399/1400 bounce potential.. It may be limited in height now.. It may be less reward at 1435 or 1340 than 1460 or 1500.. The risk about 10 pips remains {image}
this may be confusing 1399+ is likely bullish.. it normally would rise 60 to 100 r more. before a retreat. 1399 can have an attraction value. While being support. It missed at 1404 earlier. It also missed the shorter term close above 1415. So it has a decent chance at hitting 1399/1400.. and it may support the rise to LC attraction.. From there it does have some dynamic R at 1435 1h..It normally would hit 60 or 100 pips above 1399. Once it gets tired it can revisit 1352 area by Friday. It may get a rejection 1435/1500.. if it falls back below 1399 sustained be careful with longs. because the pull to 135x is probably working
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  • #123,232
  • Jun 5, 2025 5:18am Jun 5, 2025 5:18am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} this may be confusing 1399+ is likely bullish.. it normally would rise 60 to 100 r more. before a retreat. 1399 can have an attraction value. While being support. It missed at 1404 earlier. It also missed the shorter term close above 1415. So it has a decent chance at hitting 1399/1400.. and it may support the rise to LC attraction.. From there it does have some dynamic R at 1435 1h..It normally would hit 60 or 100 pips above 1399. Once it gets tired it can revisit 1352 area by Friday. It may get a rejection 1435/1500.. if it falls back...
bull looks like they are ready to go higher for now
a drop back to 1352 (this week still untouched) may need ecb and stronger nfp
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,233
  • Jun 5, 2025 7:42am Jun 5, 2025 7:42am
Since it has run up now, The usual 60 to 100 is valid . 1399 is support/attraction, although it didnt hit it at the 1404 low. if back below 1399 sustained, we may see 1352 Friday..Above 1399 is still bullish
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  • #123,234
  • Jun 5, 2025 7:50am Jun 5, 2025 7:50am
Quoting johncen
{quote} bull looks like they are ready to go higher for now a drop back to 1352 (this week still untouched) may need ecb and stronger nfp
I wouldn't short it because it runs usually 60 to 100 pips above 1399 for the last 1.5ys it has a good record of doing that.. 60 pips is the lower end. Once there there is also a better than 60% chance it will end up near/at 1352. Exhaustion with some proof may be worth a shot at 1400 or 1352.
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  • #123,235
  • Jun 5, 2025 8:56am Jun 5, 2025 8:56am
pay attention here near 1400.. if it fails.. over the last 1.5 years out of 21 like moves. 19 ended back in the 135x area Friday. 2 b/o higher. # 3 or # 20 is next
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  • #123,236
  • Jun 5, 2025 8:57am Jun 5, 2025 8:57am
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  • #123,237
  • Jun 5, 2025 3:04pm Jun 5, 2025 3:04pm
Quoting gatorinla
Since it has run up now, The usual 60 to 100 is valid . 1399 is support/attraction, although it didnt hit it at the 1404 low. if back below 1399 sustained, we may see 1352 Friday..Above 1399 is still bullish
agreed that above 1400 no short, let see if bear can take back 1435 and 1400. Subject to nfp and saga between Elon and the crazy man
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #123,238
  • Jun 5, 2025 7:25pm Jun 5, 2025 7:25pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} agreed that above 1400 no short, let see if bear can take back 1435 and 1400. Subject to nfp and saga between Elon and the crazy man
19 out of 21 tims it would fall to 1352ish..That seems like a trend. a 91% record
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  • #123,239
  • Jun 6, 2025 2:24am Jun 6, 2025 2:24am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 19 out of 21 tims it would fall to 1352ish..That seems like a trend. a 91% record
1/2 right point to 1352x.. 1399 could be bouncy back to here again
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  • #123,240
  • Jun 6, 2025 2:33am Jun 6, 2025 2:33am
I think a - 1399 close in 1.5 hs seals 1352xish. 20 out of 22 times is possible.. its 1/2 way there. 1352 could support.. But closing a week below it and 134x may be a slip closer to 1.0802
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