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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #4,261
  • Aug 6, 2007 10:21pm Aug 6, 2007 10:21pm
does anyone think Fed's may cut the interest rates by 25 points?
  • #4,262
  • Aug 6, 2007 10:21pm Aug 6, 2007 10:21pm
Quoting sdot
yeah i see what you mean, but i did the long term correlations to get a bigger picture for now. i got the raw data from a couple of historical data websites. i found short term data points for gbp/jpy, but could not find anything smaller than daily data for the dow so i couldnt do a smaller time frame. if you know where to find those i'd gladly do the correlations for them.
I am looking for short-term data. If we can show even a minute or two lag between the dow move and the GJ move, you could turn this into almost risk-free scalping. If they are showing this close a correlation, they probably show another close form of correlation, something like a 5 point change in the dow creates a 7 point average change in GJ. You watch for a large enough change in the dow to ensure that the GJ change is greater than the purchase spread. You buy or sell GJ and then close whenever the dow shows you are about to lose your profit.

Anybody have a lead on short term data for the dow?
  • #4,263
  • Aug 6, 2007 10:22pm Aug 6, 2007 10:22pm
Quoting auslanco
I use 15min 50line crossover as the retracement time frame. You are right in saying if the if the 4hr change to 1hr direction.. yes I consider this as change of short term (1-3days) trend.


But if the 1H confirms the 15M retracement,then we have a major retracement from 100-150 pips,m'i right?
  • #4,264
  • Aug 6, 2007 10:22pm Aug 6, 2007 10:22pm
Quoting auslanco
does anyone think Fed's may cut the interest rates by 25 points?
If not, we are almost certainly going to get language indicating they are open to cutting the rate if housing conditions continue to deteriorate.
  • #4,265
  • Aug 6, 2007 10:24pm Aug 6, 2007 10:24pm
Quoting auslanco
does anyone think Fed's may cut the interest rates by 25 points?
hmm interesting suggestion. Its possible that they cut it, my guess would be that they hold this time, and the next statement they cut. But really i havent been that great in judging these things since greenspan left and bernake took over. btw how does the interest rate statement usually affect gbpjpy?
  • #4,266
  • Aug 6, 2007 10:26pm Aug 6, 2007 10:26pm
Quoting auslanco
does anyone think Fed's may cut the interest rates by 25 points?
In my opinion, i don't think so aus.. they'll probably leave it alone but the statement will probably try to include some soothing tones to calm the markets a bit. If they cut rates though.. stocks will shoot up.. GJ should shoot up.. but what if UJ drags it down?
  • #4,267
  • Aug 6, 2007 10:30pm Aug 6, 2007 10:30pm
Carry Trade Outlook: Players Continue To Focus On The Stock Markets, And Its Unlikely That Investors Will Resume Carry Trades Just Yet, Especially When We Dont Know What Would Come Out Of The Feds Statement - Wire Citing Trader
  • #4,268
  • Edited 10:39pm Aug 6, 2007 10:34pm | Edited 10:39pm
Quoting markam
I am looking for short-term data. If we can show even a minute or two lag between the dow move and the GJ move, you could turn this into almost risk-free scalping. If they are showing this close a correlation, they probably show another close form of correlation, something like a 5 point change in the dow creates a 7 point average change in GJ. You watch for a large enough change in the dow to ensure that the GJ change is greater than the purchase spread. You buy or sell GJ and then close whenever the dow shows you are about to lose your profit.

Anybody have a lead on short term data for the dow?
maybe you can find something here.'
http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/inde...t=showAverages

Also, here it looks like you can custom design data report going back to 1890's
http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/inde...rical%20Values
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #4,269
  • Aug 6, 2007 10:37pm Aug 6, 2007 10:37pm
Anyone interested in AUD... there's a 90% probability for a interest rates hike tommorow by 25 points. - Westpac bank analysts
  • #4,270
  • Aug 6, 2007 10:41pm Aug 6, 2007 10:41pm
Quoting I.Y.I
But if the 1H confirms the 15M retracement,then we have a major retracement from 100-150 pips,m'i right?
I don't exactly understand what you mean.. First 15mins crossover will appear on your screen.. then the 1hr starts reacting.
  • #4,271
  • Aug 6, 2007 10:44pm Aug 6, 2007 10:44pm
Quoting auslanco
Anyone interested in AUD... there's a 90% probability for a interest rates hike tommorow by 25 points. - Westpac bank analysts
You just read my mind Auslanco. Am keeping an eye on the charts
  • #4,272
  • Aug 6, 2007 10:55pm Aug 6, 2007 10:55pm
GBP/JPY - Pivot: 240.76 Support 1: 239.69 Support 2: 237.87 Resist 1: 242.58 Resist 2: 243.64 200 Day MA: 235.86
  • #4,273
  • Aug 6, 2007 10:56pm Aug 6, 2007 10:56pm
Quoting markam
I am looking for short-term data. If we can show even a minute or two lag between the dow move and the GJ move, you could turn this into almost risk-free scalping. If they are showing this close a correlation, they probably show another close form of correlation, something like a 5 point change in the dow creates a 7 point average change in GJ. You watch for a large enough change in the dow to ensure that the GJ change is greater than the purchase spread. You buy or sell GJ and then close whenever the dow shows you are about to lose your profit.

Anybody have a lead on short term data for the dow?
Hi Markam,

I haven't made 50 postings so guess I can't give the exact address but if you simply google "Neuimex" you will see how to find the NEXTT 4 platform. The "market watch" panel has DOW, NASDAQ and S&P. I use the same template as I use for my currency pairs. Lead time over GBP/JPY varies from almost instant to a minute or so. You can see DOW futures on Blomberg's home page.

Best of luck

Cheers
  • #4,274
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:08pm Aug 6, 2007 11:08pm
Quoting Navigator
Hi Markam,

I haven't made 50 postings so guess I can't give the exact address but if you simply google "Neuimex" you will see how to find the NEXTT 4 platform. The "market watch" panel has DOW, NASDAQ and S&P. I use the same template as I use for my currency pairs. Lead time over GBP/JPY varies from almost instant to a minute or so. You can see DOW futures on Blomberg's home page.

Best of luck

Cheers
So have you actually tried to use the US stock market to trade GJ or another currency?
  • #4,275
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:10pm Aug 6, 2007 11:10pm
4hr crossed bullish and confirmed @ 00.00EST. 1hr already bullish and above the 50line.I will go long (release my original hedge short position) when 15 mins SI cross upwards.
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  • #4,276
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:21pm Aug 6, 2007 11:21pm
Quoting markam
So have you actually tried to use the US stock market to trade GJ or another currency?
It's another weapon in the armoury to use ..but not exclusively. It's a great help though. During the Asian hours like now I watch the Nikei which tends to do the same thing but it isn't on any MT4 that I know of. Try Bloomberg but u have to refresh their chart.
  • #4,277
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:23pm Aug 6, 2007 11:23pm
Quoting Navigator
It's another weapon in the armoury to use ..but not exclusively. It's a great help though. During the Asian hours like now I watch the Nikei which tends to do the same thing but it isn't on any MT4 that I know of. Try Bloomberg but u have to refresh their chart.
I use Yahoo Finance ( finance.yahoo.com ) for tracking the Nikkei 225 and the page refreshes automatically.
Period : 26 Months Account Balance : +264% Max DD : 14.2%
  • #4,278
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:26pm Aug 6, 2007 11:26pm
I'm long, TP1 241.80, TP2 242.70

Please trade at your own risk and use sound Money Management, this is GJ and it may eat up your account quickly if you risk a lot.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #4,279
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:30pm Aug 6, 2007 11:30pm
Quoting karmostaji
I'm long, TP1 241.80, TP2 242.70

Please trade at your own risk and use sound Money Management, this is GJ and it may eat up your account quickly if you risk a lot.
just curious karmo, what's your entry?
Bring It...
  • #4,280
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:31pm Aug 6, 2007 11:31pm
Hi monarch, Haven't seen you for a while. Hope you enjoyed your holidays. Any thoughts on the pair?
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