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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #4,181
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:37pm Aug 6, 2007 4:37pm
http://img158.imageshack.us/img158/6135/gjlt4.gif

Goodnight fellas
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #4,182
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:41pm Aug 6, 2007 4:41pm
Quoting ktrade
Guys,

Here's the problem with this thread:

You guys are getting your demo acct's burned up now but one day it may be for real. There's no real good trading technique and/or technical analysis going on. Daily?, 4hr? hourly? Trendlines upside down - rightside up? DOW this DOW that! Fib this Fib that!

I said this before: Take a step back from your computer and this thread -- look what's happening on your charts. Forget the hype of the thread b/c strength in masses is NOT going to help this pair stay in your favor and continue the course when it's changing directions just b/c 50 traders keep posting the same thing!

NOW, are you swinging this on a daily/4hourly? Or are you using 1hr charts?
Or all 3?

OK - If you're using a 4 hr, and you missed the re-entry near the close yesterday and came back at ANY BAR THEREAFTER in 4hr increments , do you:

Look at your chart, say "Hmmm, the support line at 239.20 ish isn't broken yet, hmmm...what to do? Maybe I'll get on the FF thread, post 200 times about entering using the daily (even though we're in the middle of the day and the bar hasn't closed yet , hmmm.... how about...yeah...I'll also post on entering using the 4hr and shorting even though the support line STILL IS NOT broken,... hmmm... no...maybe I'll use the hourly, post some more about shorting (THIS BABY'S GOING DOWN - YEAH BABY) where there seems to be an ongoing 5-6 hourly bar phenomenon that HASN'T yet broken the support line yet ...hmmm.... or I can ignore the ENSUING broken upper trendline at 1700 on the hourly that told me my shorts NEED TO BE COVERED, post some more about this baby going down (YEAH BABY GO GO GO!)....or I can simply blame it on the DOW after I lost 200 pips which, using sound money management and the good ole' standard 2% MM, would require a $100,000 acct. to trade 1 standard lot! (do the math on that 1% MM guy!) OR....................

Come on guys,

FOR 6 STRAIGHT HOURLY CLOSES 12:00 to 17:00 GMT THERE WAS CONTINUOUS SUPPORT REJECTION GOING ON

STILL ON THE HOURLY UPPER TRENDLINES BROKEN ON THE 1700 BAR (1800 if you're lining up tails)

However, If you were on the 4hourly, you either would've been sitting this out waiting after missing the reentry yesterday (there was actually a decent TL chart posted earlier showing the 4hr unbroken and still as I'm writing this), or you should've/would've dropped down to the hourly and saw that the support still wasn't broken, and perhaps waited for an hourly CLOSE or 4hourly CLOSE looking for S/R/TL's lines to break in order for an entry to take place.

Really the best piece of advice IMHO though would be to stop playing around and start using this strategy on some pairs you'll be able to trade with when you start trading professionally. Honestly, if you're not going to use a rentry strategy with tighter SL's or some sort of other cohesive strategy, what's the point? YOU CAN'T TRADE FOR REAL LIKE THIS! Or I guess you can still have fun goofing off with this but don't make up excuses and reasons that make no sense when you keep getting blown up using this thread and it's participants.

Nevertheless, I wish all Good Luck/Good Trading

kt
I disagree with you on today. We were in a bearish trend, and this was strictly a stock market reaction. People hung on because the market has been doing late session dumps, and could easily have done so today. If the dow had done a dive midafternoon, like last friday, the short positions would have been golden.

Trying to guess the market can get you killed, but was probably a reasonable bet today.
  • #4,183
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:49pm Aug 6, 2007 4:49pm
Quoting Tarsyk
Has this been linked on the forum yet? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWksEJQEYVU



Its not even that offtopic here
Wow now That will make one think. And to think we have an interest rate statment tomorrow.
  • #4,184
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:53pm Aug 6, 2007 4:53pm
Quoting markam
I disagree with you on today. We were in a bearish trend, and this was strictly a stock market reaction. People hung on because the market has been doing late session dumps, and could easily have done so today. If the dow had done a dive midafternoon, like last friday, the short positions would have been golden.

Trying to guess the market can get you killed, but was probably a reasonable bet today.
Look at the highlighted words and phrases. You know better than this. You can't do this in trading.
  • #4,185
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:54pm Aug 6, 2007 4:54pm
Quoting newjersey24
I see the websites you noted that gives you an indcation where DOW may go.

However, I cant find it on the site. I just went to Bloomberg. Where they make those comments. I would like to see it and use it for as part of my analysis prior to making a trade.


THanks
Usually they show up half an hour before the stock markets open.. you have to navigate to 'news' and then 'markets'.. and it shows you what the futures look like. Also, go to yahoo.. click on 'finance'.. and it usually shows up in the main heading 'Stocks poised for higher open' or something of that sort.

Also, take into account common sense - after a day of massive sell off .. usually there is correction in the markets. It's best to always stay informed of what markets are doing.

Right now I wouldn't get into a gbp/jpy trade simply because everyone is waiting for the US interest statement tomorrow.. they want to see what the Fed chief is going to talk about (the credit situation, subprime, etc) So you might see GBP/JPY ranging till tomorrow.
  • #4,186
  • Aug 6, 2007 4:57pm Aug 6, 2007 4:57pm
Quoting ktrade
Look at the highlighted words and phrases. You know better than this. You can't do this in trading.
i absolutly agree with you! as i quoted earlier today: gbpjpy was going down because of a gbp weakness not because of a jpy strength. so this down movement had nothing to do with the moves of the last few days.
  • #4,187
  • Aug 6, 2007 5:00pm Aug 6, 2007 5:00pm
I have been trading the GBP/JPY in relation to the DJIA for the past two weeks and it has been very volatile.
If you think today was a ride wait until tomorrow, I am not referring to the interest rate release but good old Bernie statements will be watched like a hawk.
When the market is like this you can bet, up or down, we will see high volatility. Isn't this why we trade the forex market ?
Volatility=chances to make money on market swings.

Never closed my shorts and went long upon seeing the DJIA up 150+ points.

Tomorrow is another day and the way things are going be ready for a lot more volatile swings in the DJIA.

This WILL AFFECT the Yen crosses tremendously.

Just remember, trade what you see, not what you WANT to see.

Hope we all make some money
  • #4,188
  • Aug 6, 2007 5:08pm Aug 6, 2007 5:08pm
Quoting Rustyyy
I have been trading the GBP/JPY in relation to the DJIA for the past two weeks and it has been very volatile.
If you think today was a ride wait until tomorrow, I am not referring to the interest rate release but good old Bernie statements will be watched like a hawk.

This WILL AFFECT the Yen crosses tremendously.

Just remember, trade what you see, not what you WANT to see.

Hope we all make some money
Man I hate it when Bernie speaks, market seems to always go in the other direction than it should be going. I will listen to the news on my way home to check out the DJIA futures to see how it will open and see where things are at on the charts. But for now I will just take my -80 pips loss and go to work for the night.

We Live to trade another day...
  • #4,189
  • Aug 6, 2007 5:12pm Aug 6, 2007 5:12pm
Quoting karmostaji
I don't feel like posting anything after how this last trade turned out, but yes that is what i think
Karmo, you saw what you saw and made a decision and stuck with it. If it was the wrong decision then you learn and go on and then make another decision. Trading is more psychology than charting. You are contributing to the overall progress of others. Bad trades are the best teachers.

BTW, you were sitting on very strong support (horizontal) on the week chart when you got into the trade. Maybe a bit early but you had a target.
  • #4,190
  • Aug 6, 2007 5:21pm Aug 6, 2007 5:21pm
Quoting ktrade
Guys,

Here's the problem with this thread:

You guys are getting your demo acct's burned up now but one day it may be for real. There's no real good trading technique and/or technical analysis going on. Daily?, 4hr? hourly? Trendlines upside down - rightside up? DOW this DOW that! Fib this Fib that!

I said this before: Take a step back from your computer and this thread -- look what's happening on your charts. Forget the hype of the thread b/c strength in masses is NOT going to help this pair stay in your favor and continue the course when it's changing directions just b/c 50 traders keep posting the same thing!

NOW, are you swinging this on a daily/4hourly? Or are you using 1hr charts?
Or all 3?

OK - If you're using a 4 hr, and you missed the re-entry near the close yesterday and came back at ANY BAR THEREAFTER in 4hr increments , do you:

Look at your chart, say "Hmmm, the support line at 239.20 ish isn't broken yet, hmmm...what to do? Maybe I'll get on the FF thread, post 200 times about entering using the daily (even though we're in the middle of the day and the bar hasn't closed yet , hmmm.... how about...yeah...I'll also post on entering using the 4hr and shorting even though the support line STILL IS NOT broken,... hmmm... no...maybe I'll use the hourly, post some more about shorting (THIS BABY'S GOING DOWN - YEAH BABY) where there seems to be an ongoing 5-6 hourly bar phenomenon that HASN'T yet broken the support line yet ...hmmm.... or I can ignore the ENSUING broken upper trendline at 1700 on the hourly that told me my shorts NEED TO BE COVERED, post some more about this baby going down (YEAH BABY GO GO GO!)....or I can simply blame it on the DOW after I lost 200 pips which, using sound money management and the good ole' standard 2% MM, would require a $100,000 acct. to trade 1 standard lot! (do the math on that 1% MM guy!) OR....................

Come on guys,

FOR 6 STRAIGHT HOURLY CLOSES 12:00 to 17:00 GMT THERE WAS CONTINUOUS SUPPORT REJECTION GOING ON

STILL ON THE HOURLY UPPER TRENDLINES BROKEN ON THE 1700 BAR (1800 if you're lining up tails)

However, If you were on the 4hourly, you either would've been sitting this out waiting after missing the reentry yesterday (there was actually a decent TL chart posted earlier showing the 4hr unbroken and still as I'm writing this), or you should've/would've dropped down to the hourly and saw that the support still wasn't broken, and perhaps waited for an hourly CLOSE or 4hourly CLOSE looking for S/R/TL's lines to break in order for an entry to take place.

Really the best piece of advice IMHO though would be to stop playing around and start using this strategy on some pairs you'll be able to trade with when you start trading professionally. Honestly, if you're not going to use a rentry strategy with tighter SL's or some sort of other cohesive strategy, what's the point? YOU CAN'T TRADE FOR REAL LIKE THIS! Or I guess you can still have fun goofing off with this but don't make up excuses and reasons that make no sense when you keep getting blown up using this thread and it's participants.

Edit: 1 other thing. I see a lot of "so and so was PERFECT" on this call and that. What???

Nevertheless, I wish all Good Luck/Good Trading

kt
Well said, kt. In fact, my personal opinon is price movement is the best and most important indicator in the forex trading. Auslanco's strategy is good only if one does take note the price movement. With 6hrs continuous support rejection, it is telling us the support is too strong. That's why I chose to close the 80% of my short position and move the balance short position's SL to breakeven before heading to bed.
  • #4,191
  • Aug 6, 2007 5:33pm Aug 6, 2007 5:33pm
Hmmm..GJ go up and hit my SL when i sleeping . Not a good day....

Based on today GJ H1 Chart. I can see a strong resistance @ Fibo 23.60% (241.83) in my chart. It failed to break and if GJ break Fibo 38.20% (241.02) it might go down to 240.39 ( next Fibo 50.0%)

GJ H4 Chart. Strong resistance @ 241.81 ( My trend line). If price break Fibo 23.60% (240.77), our next target will be 237.64.

GJ Daily Chart. Price bounce around Fibo 23.60% and 38.20%. If break Fibo 38.20, next target will be 236.08.

Pls correct me if i'm wrong.
New Forex Trader
  • #4,192
  • Aug 6, 2007 5:41pm Aug 6, 2007 5:41pm
The last news from DOW were at 4:06 PM.So when are the last news for the day?
  • #4,193
  • Aug 6, 2007 5:45pm Aug 6, 2007 5:45pm
Quoting Tarsyk
Has this been linked on the forum yet? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWksEJQEYVU



Its not even that offtopic here

Nice post ... here is the same video explaining what he is freaking out about!
The time to pay for prior mistakes is at hand! muhaha!


CNBC Cramer Melt Down
Inserted Video
  • #4,194
  • Aug 6, 2007 5:50pm Aug 6, 2007 5:50pm
For those who are interested in Chart and Candlestick Patterns, here is the inverted head and shoulders with neckline drawn on a 4H Chart using an MT4 Platform from ODL Securities. Neckline was drawn from wick to wick. Based upon this we would need a break and close above the 243.35 area to help confirm the return of the uptrend.

M2B
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 4h.jpg Size: 33 KB
  • #4,195
  • Aug 6, 2007 5:55pm Aug 6, 2007 5:55pm
watch for the news in 5 minutes.
  • #4,196
  • Aug 6, 2007 6:19pm Aug 6, 2007 6:19pm
Quoting ultimate
Nice post ... here is the same video explaining what he is freaking out about!
The time to pay for prior mistakes is at hand! muhaha!


CNBC Cramer Melt Down
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6CHyguDQtM

23:12 JPY-Carry Trades: Boosted By WSJ Report On Fannie Mae Sydney, August 7: Analysts say that a Wall Street Journal report saying that Fannie Mae, the largest US home loan company, asked its regulator to raise the maximum amount of home mortgages and related securities the company can hold to help provide more liquidity to the market Is one of the main reasons for the dramatic rise on Wall Street late Monday. If approved, the move would provide much needed liquidity to the stressed market. This is one of the main reasons given for the strong rise of financial stocks after they took a beating on Friday.
The stabilized corporate bond market and the strong rise on Wall Street was the driving force behind the pullback in the JPY and CHF-funded carry trades. Analysts warn that the recent volatility in the financial markets is likely to continue and result in more swings in the carry trades. -- [email protected]
  • #4,197
  • Aug 6, 2007 6:25pm Aug 6, 2007 6:25pm
Quoting my2buoys
For those who are interested in Chart and Candlestick Patterns, here is the inverted head and shoulders with neckline drawn on a 4H Chart using an MT4 Platform from ODL Securities. Neckline was drawn from wick to wick. Based upon this we would need a break and close above the 243.35 area to help confirm the return of the uptrend.

M2B
So, in this case, we are not confirmed a uptrend, yet.
  • #4,198
  • Aug 6, 2007 6:26pm Aug 6, 2007 6:26pm
Quoting ultimate
23:12 JPY-Carry Trades: Boosted By WSJ Report On Fannie Mae Sydney, August 7: Analysts say that a Wall Street Journal report saying that Fannie Mae, the largest US home loan company, asked its regulator to raise the maximum amount of home mortgages and related securities the company can hold to help provide more liquidity to the market Is one of the main reasons for the dramatic rise on Wall Street late Monday. If approved, the move would provide much needed liquidity to the stressed market. This is one of the main reasons given for the strong rise of financial stocks after they took a beating on Friday.
The stabilized corporate bond market and the strong rise on Wall Street was the driving force behind the pullback in the JPY and CHF-funded carry trades. Analysts warn that the recent volatility in the financial markets is likely to continue and result in more swings in the carry trades. -- [email protected]
Oh goodie. Fannie Mae buys the loans. The mortgage holder defaults, loses everything and is destroyed. The bank doesn't care because they sold the loan to Fannie Mae. Fannie Mae doesn't care because they will get a government bailout. The taxpayer and the dollar value take the ultimate hit.

This country is so fricken doomed.
  • #4,199
  • Aug 6, 2007 6:33pm Aug 6, 2007 6:33pm
Quoting markam
Oh goodie. Fannie Mae buys the loans. The mortgage holder defaults, loses everything and is destroyed. The bank doesn't care because they sold the loan to Fannie Mae. Fannie Mae doesn't care because they will get a government bailout. The taxpayer and the dollar value take the ultimate hit.

This country is so fricken doomed.
Did you see this video? It explains exactly what you just said. I doubt they will get the permission to raise the amount.

CNBC Cramer Melt Down
Inserted Video
  • #4,200
  • Aug 6, 2007 6:38pm Aug 6, 2007 6:38pm
Quoting ultimate
Did you see this video? It explains exactly what you just said. I doubt they will get the permission to raise the amount.

CNBC Cramer Melt Down
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6CHyguDQtM

Interesting.....

Well time for work again..no trades working right now..(good thing huh)

We will do battle again in about 11 hours

See ya all then.
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