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  • #4,021
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:00am Aug 6, 2007 11:00am
Quoting digitizer123
Ok . . . agreed but those external factors cause retraces just as oversold situations do and do not go beyond that - I believe that over long term charts do guide us most of the time (not all the time) even though it is a lagging indicator. If everyone looks at the chart and agree and then place their bet aggordingly - the market has to go in that direction and it becomes a self fullfilling prophecy.
External factors can also change the charts and completely change your outlook. If it hadn't been for the Bear Stern conference call last friday, likely you would all be long right now, because the charts would be bullish. The market can easily go against the long-term trend and really screw up your analysis. I mean look at today. There is no reason for the dow to go up today, but damned if it isn't. If we have a big day in the stock market, the 1 hour and 4 hour charts will turn bullish, and everyone on this thread will follow along. Then reality might set in tomorrow, and the market goes back to crashing, and GJ will follow.

I am no expert on the forex market, and no expert on chart analysis. I am here because I have certain beliefs about the future of the world economy. I am just trying to translate that into profits in the forex market. I thought it might be useful to have a different perspective on things. If it isn't I will just stay out of future discussions.
  • #4,022
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:00am Aug 6, 2007 11:00am
Quoting ovidiu
also another humble opinion:
this sucker is moving with the daily trendline which acted as a resistance and now as a support (or is it the other way around?!)(I always confuse this terms but the general idea is that, that matters).
I predict a sharp fall at the crossing of the trend line with the 2 fibs some where arund the last part of the NY session, which if coresponds with a drop in the DOW will give us a hell of a ride.
So far good call Ovidiu!
  • #4,023
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:04am Aug 6, 2007 11:04am
Was really hoping for a definitive close beneath the trend line on the 4H Chart. Instead, it appears the candle closed right on the trend line, around 239.49. Some James 16 people might call this a pin bar but it's in heavy traffic. The scope should still be considered down IMO.

M2B
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  • #4,024
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:05am Aug 6, 2007 11:05am
Quoting markam
External factors can also change the charts and completely change your outlook. If it hadn't been for the Bear Stern conference call last friday, likely you would all be long right now, because the charts would be bullish. The market can easily go against the long-term trend and really screw up your analysis. I mean look at today. There is no reason for the dow to go up today, but damned if it isn't. If we have a big day in the stock market, the 1 hour and 4 hour charts will turn bullish, and everyone on this thread will follow along. Then reality might set in tomorrow, and the market goes back to crashing, and GJ will follow.

I am no expert on the forex market, and no expert on chart analysis. I am here because I have certain beliefs about the future of the world economy. I am just trying to translate that into profits in the forex market. I thought it might be useful to have a different perspective on things. If it isn't I will just stay out of future discussions.
I don't think is a need for that, we should know about fundamental as much as we know about technical so just stay here and share your views
  • #4,025
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:06am Aug 6, 2007 11:06am
Quoting ovidiu
would you care to post that 4H chart, please!
I just don't seem to get that level, maybe because of diffrent broker times or something.
I have also 241.4X but from a trend line not from a level, very curious to see your chart.
thanks
Sure

swing highs are highlighted in light blue circles and resistance line in light blue.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,026
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:09am Aug 6, 2007 11:09am
Quoting c0nansbg
I know it is off topic, but i'm wondering if anybody here is trading usdtry or eurtry. it really looks like an interesting pair. It makes the same moves nearly every day. Anybody interested in starting a thread on this pair?
I have 20 pip spread on these pairs.
I just had a look they don't make the same move everyday only last few days it has been ranging.
  • #4,027
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:10am Aug 6, 2007 11:10am
Quoting digitizer123
I am going to wait a bit to enter - I think it will bounce from here - I will enter my short around 240.50ish.

Yeah me too!
  • #4,028
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:13am Aug 6, 2007 11:13am
Markam - "I thought it might be useful to have a different perspective on things. If it isn't I will just stay out of future discussions."

Your openion is valued just as anyone else' - I think we both know where this is coming from - (crazy sumbitch thing) - please don't be so harsh if others have an openion that differes from your own - that's all.
  • #4,029
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:13am Aug 6, 2007 11:13am
Quoting markam
External factors can also change the charts and completely change your outlook. If it hadn't been for the Bear Stern conference call last friday, likely you would all be long right now, because the charts would be bullish. The market can easily go against the long-term trend and really screw up your analysis. I mean look at today. There is no reason for the dow to go up today, but damned if it isn't. If we have a big day in the stock market, the 1 hour and 4 hour charts will turn bullish, and everyone on this thread will follow along. Then reality might set in tomorrow, and the market goes back to crashing, and GJ will follow.

I am no expert on the forex market, and no expert on chart analysis. I am here because I have certain beliefs about the future of the world economy. I am just trying to translate that into profits in the forex market. I thought it might be useful to have a different perspective on things. If it isn't I will just stay out of future discussions.
As I said before in #4004

Quote:
Originally Posted by digitizer123 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Ohhh . . are you short now????? Weren't you trying to sell us something about The DOW dropping makes the G/J drop and the fancy charts have no value???????

What is your deal man, It is one thing to have your own openion but you are always trying to confuse others like you are so sure of it - and then when you are proven wrong you post 200 PIP profit and claim you switched sides. You really should be calling the signal cause somehow the G/J changes direction with your wish...... ??????

Go back and read his posts??? always going back and forth - with the market but only after the fact.

I don't see it that way.

I see Markam's posts bring a balanced perspective introducing fundamental factors that are the "real-time" drivers in the forex.... not charts which are after-the-fact data. Fortunately chart patterns showing the past can guide us in the future.


Markam, I hope you continue to add this to the discussion. Along this line, I have read certain commentary from a fellow trader who has brought a good amount of attention to his perspectives on the global economy especially as it relates to the Asian markets and the impact the Yuan has on the markets worldwide. I think I'll occasionally post some of his reflections that I have archived.

Dr. D.
  • #4,030
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:18am Aug 6, 2007 11:18am
What is going on guys - does anyone have any explaination ???? for this push?????
  • #4,031
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:25am Aug 6, 2007 11:25am
Quoting digitizer123
What is going on guys - does anyone have any explaination ???? for this push?????
the freakin DOW like always, but it will fall hard
  • #4,032
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:27am Aug 6, 2007 11:27am
Quoting digitizer123
What is going on guys - does anyone have any explaination ???? for this push?????
There is alot of uncertainty in the markets right now. USD is waiting on Big B's comments tomorrow. Uncertainty=sideways. For what its worth I am short on a small lot and I am watching it closely.
Following Auslanco's rules, the 1h SI has not confirmed a short position...at least on my charts.
  • #4,033
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:28am Aug 6, 2007 11:28am
Here is one of the fundamental reasons that the pound is going to get much, much weaker. The fact that england became a net oil importer last year is not well known right now, and most people don't understand exactly how significant this is going to be. Englands strength and success over the last 20 years has come basically from oil exports. Without them, they have only the financial markets as an area of global strength. As we have been building a 10 year financial bubble world-wide, the current undwinding of that bubble will knock out their other leg.

The most important fact to understand is that is global oil production almost certainly peaked in the 2005-2006 time period. The downside of global production is going to be very, very ugly.

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/UK_oil_imp_exp.png
  • #4,034
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:28am Aug 6, 2007 11:28am
Quoting digitizer123
What is going on guys - does anyone have any explaination ???? for this push?????
I don't know fundametally why but we are currently stuck at the verge of 4HR support line and just below 38.2 after breaking and closing below it by a bullish engulfing candle and moving 65 pips below it which is worrying

I through the bearish thrust would be much stronger!
  • #4,035
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:30am Aug 6, 2007 11:30am
Quoting digitizer123
What is going on guys - does anyone have any explaination ???? for this push?????
Don't know if this is a factor or not but on my MT4 platform we never did quite fill the gap. There is still about a 20 pip differential. I know that's no big deal for the GBP/JPY but who knows? Also, the 5SMA on the Daily Chart comes in at about 240.85.

M2B
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,036
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:30am Aug 6, 2007 11:30am
hey Markam,

Your insight is greatly appreciated with me. I too have a fundamental approach on things and it has done me very well, but now Im trying to compbine with the technical aspect to increase my skills.

I have to agree with him and seen it many times, how fundamental news, information impact the curriencies. Particurarily the DOW.

I mean on Fri afternoon, I stayed away from sells until I saw DOW hit -100, and when it went to -150+ near closed. I added more sells.

Reason is, everytime, I seen DOW close at -100 (especially -150) we see a major sell off of some kind.


Quoting markam
External factors can also change the charts and completely change your outlook. If it hadn't been for the Bear Stern conference call last friday, likely you would all be long right now, because the charts would be bullish. The market can easily go against the long-term trend and really screw up your analysis. I mean look at today. There is no reason for the dow to go up today, but damned if it isn't. If we have a big day in the stock market, the 1 hour and 4 hour charts will turn bullish, and everyone on this thread will follow along. Then reality might set in tomorrow, and the market goes back to crashing, and GJ will follow.

I am no expert on the forex market, and no expert on chart analysis. I am here because I have certain beliefs about the future of the world economy. I am just trying to translate that into profits in the forex market. I thought it might be useful to have a different perspective on things. If it isn't I will just stay out of future discussions.
  • #4,037
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:34am Aug 6, 2007 11:34am
Quoting digitizer123
What is going on guys - does anyone have any explaination ???? for this push?????
DOW making a push in early afternoon!!

DOW to the rescue.
  • #4,038
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:35am Aug 6, 2007 11:35am
Quoting Majd
I don't know fundametally why but we are currently stuck at the verge of 4HR support line and just below 38.2 after breaking and closing below it by a bullish engulfing candle and moving 65 pips below it which is worrying

I through the bearish thrust would be much stronger!
I only think that it is a very good point to short right now
  • #4,039
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:39am Aug 6, 2007 11:39am
Quoting digitizer123
What is going on guys - does anyone have any explaination ???? for this push?????
I guess it is being driven by a number of things.. but i can't see a real clear direction up or down at the moment. I think the Dow has been going up so maybe that is having an influence?

I think we need a clear 1h candle forming below the pivot resistance that has been testing for hours... around 23925 level to go short..

OR if it keeps going up I think wait and look for a clear breakout of the uptrend and confirmation to the downside.. before going short again.

At the moment i can only see higher highs and higher lows.. so no encouragement yet for me...

I don't know but i "think" there could be another 2 weeks of bear action overall that will take us down to around 23700 ish... If it goes too much below that i guess it is starting to compromise the long term monthly bullish trend..

I guess it could happen.. but i think that is something that will be driven by fundamentals?

However, who knows? It may bounce right back up now after testing off the weekly 30 sma area?
  • #4,040
  • Aug 6, 2007 11:42am Aug 6, 2007 11:42am
Quoting Majd
I have shorted at the same level a couple of hours back. Why don't you raise your SL level to at least above the 23.6 Fibo 240.77 and preferably above the resistance line from 25 July and 2 August highs which is according to my 4H chart is currently @ 241.41 but ofcourse this needs to fit with Reward:Risk ratio. My trade setup is:

short @ 239.35, TP @ 237.67, SL @ 241.47
I hope you have raised your SL
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