Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb | Page 32 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb
Exit Attachments

Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb

  • #621
  • May 19, 2025 1:50pm May 19, 2025 1:50pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Adjust TP to 1R {image}
Adjust TP again to 2R
USD/JPY and Gold
Goodluck!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.iM15.png Size: 25 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #622
  • May 19, 2025 8:13pm May 19, 2025 8:13pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Adjust TP again to 2R USD/JPY and Gold Goodluck! {image} {image}
USD/JPY change TP to 1R and Hit BE+
XAU/USD change TP to 1R and Hit BE+
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM152.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.iM152.png Size: 22 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #623
  • Edited 4:33pm May 20, 2025 1:07pm | Edited 4:33pm
The PVSRA TVT 1/3 ADR 21 Daily Ranger test in Currencies is complete.
Good Sharp R 0.84, Sortino R 0.63 and Average Return 0.2%
Trading and monitoring 28 currency pairs isn't as hard as many people say.

Now it’s time for Only Gold
Position Size: So for Gold (XAU/USD), how much risk is used per trade?
It remains the mid‑risk level of the 7% monthly target, namely 0.5% per position, with a maximum of two positions open at the same time.

So for 25k start account, 1 unit risk 0.5% would be about 294 pips (1/3 from aDtr 21, now 881 pips), would be around 0.04 Lots (in my broker $10 per pip). As simple as that.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 9 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 5 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #624
  • Edited 7:16pm May 20, 2025 4:00pm | Edited 7:16pm
Stairsteps to Heaven XAU/USD
Beautifully Gold Chart for today

Time adjusted starts at 06.00 Local time (GMT +08.00 Beijing) and lasting for 23 hours
So 7.7 hours or 7 Hours 40 minutes per Range
Range 1: 01.00 - 08.40 (KillZone timer)
Range 2: 08.41 - 16.20 (KillZone timer)
Range 3: 16.21 - 23.59 (KillZone timer)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.iM15.png Size: 22 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #625
  • Edited 4:45pm May 23, 2025 4:08pm | Edited 4:45pm
Trading exclusively only Gold over the past three days has taught many lessons...

1. Gold doesn’t reverse or reversal like currencies; instead, it moves very fast and directly—sometimes without forming waves.

2. Also, Gold doesn’t always retrace to the average when trending. There is often a typical zone above the average by about 50 to 100 pips.

3. Consider closing trades before the trading day ends—about 15 to 30 minutes beforehand. This could help minimize losses or, on the other hand, it might mean missing out on larger profits. However, a new day brings a new scenario.

4. Furthermore, a 1:1 risk-reward (RR1 of 1/3 ADR) setup is more effective because if Gold moves swiftly and correctly in the direction of the trade, profit can be realized quickly, allowing for more entries if the price retraces back to the entry signal, rather than waiting for a retrace and risking a reversal to breakeven.

5. This week's ADR is shrinking, which means the opportunity for a risk-reward ratio greater than 1 takes more time to materialize and must go through more price fluctuations. A 100-pip stop loss is completely ineffective. Just one minute of movement can hit the stop and result in an immediate loss.

6. The downtrend pattern, if any, is not like in currencies—most of them tend to follow through successfully. However, Gold can sometimes quickly form a counter upward pattern, even if the price movement isn’t always strong. Broken patterns and weirdo candle happen more frequently in Gold.

7. Red news for Gold was triggered with a significant delay of around 5 minutes, good time to react with trade. Other significant news events that don’t have a scheduled release — well, just hope they don’t come out suddenly, like a flash. But if you have a stop loss and keep your risk small, then it should be fine.

Overall, last 3 days still a mix of strategies and not yet a full implementation of the tvt daily ranger according to the rules and so percentage risk, but to scale percentage risk, lot size, tp and sl, in Gold is very easy, pretty much same like currencies.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.iM15.png Size: 22 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #626
  • Edited 8:01am May 24, 2025 6:15am | Edited 8:01am
Quote
The idea of a trade means nothing until the trade is actually opened and closed, complete with the percentage of position size, SL, and TP if any—because one second before the trade is opened, all analysis turns to dust, as it is inevitably flawed 100% (by accuracy).

- Anonopoulos -

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post15256148
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #627
  • Edited 8:55am May 24, 2025 6:20am | Edited 8:55am
Quote
While the meetings included traders, that is, people who are judged on their numerical performance, it was mostly a forum for salespeople (people capable of charming customers), and the category of entertainers called Wall Street “economists” or “strategists,” who make pronouncements on the fate of the markets, but do not engage in any form of risk taking, thus having their success dependent on rhetoric rather than actually testable facts.

― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15256204
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post15256226
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #628
  • May 24, 2025 8:46am May 24, 2025 8:46am
Simple Trading Philosophy

1. Can you produce a good trade today? Or a bad one? - Open trades Long or Short - Verify
2. How much risk are you taking (in percentage terms), and how much profit are you aiming for (also in percentage)? - Statistics - Verify
3. What is your reason for entering the trade, and what is your reason for closing it? - Analytical XXX thing-z

Thats All
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #629
  • May 24, 2025 4:47pm May 24, 2025 4:47pm
Okay. Wishing you a speedy recovery and full awareness, my friends.
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #630
  • May 25, 2025 5:19am May 25, 2025 5:19am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} A good and concise trade. What platform is that? Unfortunately, all my life I've only traded currencies only (besides crypto and stocks). {quote} In trading (the financial world), luck plays a huge role—much more than any analysis. That's because the nature of markets is often random, the cool scientific name is "continuous random auction market", but the word "random" is often omitted because the speculative aspect is clearly visible, unless you have insider information beforehand. David Beckham rarely kicked a ball that didn't curve—that's...
...unless you have insider information beforehand.

Ability to sell and high class mutual information. Insider Trading.
https://x.com/propublica/status/1926292163391852997
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.png Size: 48 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #631
  • Edited 9:50am May 25, 2025 5:40am | Edited 9:50am
Pseudoscientific Scientism

The problem with this forum is that very few traders are trained to properly interpret statistics or are used to using statistical data of the systems or methods as a guide to truth. All they know is that what they say always is: That is crap or shit — and this even crappier and shittier than what they judge and say about crap or shit of others. Veery LOL I believe this is also accelerated by the catalyst of 99% bullshit psychology thinking, where we all sometimes fall for the toxic illusions and hallucinations of that pseudoscientific nonsense. This condition is known as pseudoscientific scientism.

So don't fall or get attracted into it.
Quindi non caderci né lasciarti attrarre.
Noli ergo in eam cadere aut attrahi.
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #632
  • May 25, 2025 8:58am May 25, 2025 8:58am
Mediocristan Vs Extremistan

Some good discussion
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post15256529
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ChatGPT Image May 25, 2025, 10_06_16 PM.png Size: 136 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #633
  • May 25, 2025 9:50am May 25, 2025 9:50am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Scientism The problem with this forum is that very few traders are trained to properly interpret statistics or are used to using statistical data of the systems or methods as a guide to truth. All they know is that what they say always is: That is crap or shit — and this even crappier and shittier than what they judge and say about crap or shit of others. Veery LOL I believe this is also accelerated by the catalyst of 99% bullshit psychology thinking, where we all sometimes fall for the toxic illusions...
College statistics is, hands down, the most important class anyone can ever take in the modern age. It is also one of the most interesting classes.
  • #634
  • Edited 4:36pm May 25, 2025 10:06am | Edited 4:36pm
Quoting costos
{quote} College statistics is, hands down, the most important class anyone can ever take in the modern age. It is also one of the most interesting classes.
The best statistics book is this one, but I don't recommend it for those with average math skills—it's the most technically difficult version. So, skip the technical parts and focus mainly on the conclusions. Enjoy reading real statistics. To become a top statistician, a lot of practice is needed — but not the usual classroom kind. There are certain techniques involved, though I’ve forgotten the names (likely PCA).

https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.10488 ---- Statistical Consequences Of Fat Tails - Free PDF Arxiv Journal - 31 MB
https://www.amazon.com/Statistical-C.../dp/1544508050
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 61lOQ387iPL._SY425_.jpg Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.png Size: 11 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitledx.png Size: 27 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #635
  • Edited 4:30pm May 25, 2025 11:31am | Edited 4:30pm
Full Net Profit/Loss Formula (Including Commission and Swap)
XAU/USD

Inserted Code
Net Profit / Loss = (Pip Value × Lot Size × Number of Pips) - Commission ± Swap
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #636
  • May 27, 2025 3:49am May 27, 2025 3:49am
Gold/USD
Good trade book theory

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post15258013
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.iM15.png Size: 29 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #637
  • May 27, 2025 5:40am May 27, 2025 5:40am
If the premise is that anything can happen and everything is valid, then you shouldn't create premises that contradict it—either in psychological spirit or scientifically—because in the world of trading, there are indeed many random elements, except in certain types of trading. Repeating a flawed premise over and over after that initial premise leads to consequences of charlatanism and deception. It’s not necessarily wrong for some, but many people will come to know you as The Deceiver, The Charlatan, or The Trickster.

Lol
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #638
  • Edited 7:18pm May 27, 2025 8:19am | Edited 7:18pm
27/05/2025 - PVSRA TVT 1/3 aDtr 21 – Daily Ranger Gold
Rules of 7 so far

1. Pair Selection: Gold/USD

2. Risk 1/3 aDtr (21) in pips convert to 1 unit 0.5%, TP/SL 1:1. Consider put SL to BE +1 after 33% TP gain. Maximum open position is only 2 units.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post15183237
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15206274
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15217344
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post15221692

3. Timing Entry: Enter better after London Open in Range 2. Consider closing all heavy drawdown trades 15 minutes before trading day end.

4. Key Entry: The Blue Dragon serves as a trading direction guide.
a. Entry Long, Price is above The Blue Dragon, and The Blue Dragon forms a Convex curve. The entry position should not be too far from it.
b. Entry Short, Price is below The Blue Dragon, and the The Blue Dragon forms a Concave curve. The entry position should not be too far from it.

5. Key Levels, Volumes & Fractals: Pay attention to S/R Levels, to Consolidation above or below Whole/Half Levels, to High Volume activities and It’s Color (Climax Buy or Climax Sell, Raising Buy or Raising Sell), and to Patterns (Fractals) that are generally formed.

6. No trade before and during Red News events. Trade after it. Consider closing all open trades 15 minutes before red news.

7. Patience and Discipline like an EA (Robot).
Attached File(s)
File Type: rar Gold New.rar   640 KB | 168 downloads
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #639
  • Edited 10:25am May 29, 2025 8:02am | Edited 10:25am
Quoting RoelsMajor
27/05/2025 - PVSRA TVT 1/3 aDtr 21 – Daily Ranger Gold Rules of 7 so far 1. Pair Selection: Gold/USD 2. Risk 1/3 aDtr (21) in pips convert to 1 unit 0.5%, TP/SL 1:1. Consider put SL to BE +1 after 33% TP gain. Maximum open position is only 2 units. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post15183237 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15206274 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15217344 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post15221692 3. Timing...
I found through experience that opening 2 positions at the same time, or adding to a winning trade, is not very effective. It becomes difficult to manage the trades because the price of Gold can be highly volatile, and the breakeven point of the second position is more likely to get hit by stop hunting compared to the first position. Therefore, the risk has been adjusted to 1%, with only one open trade allowed at a time. Lets see later.

2. Risk 1/3 aDtr (21) in pips convert to 1 unit 1.0 %, TP/SL 1:1. Consider put SL to BE +1 after 33% TP gain. Maximum open position is only 1 units. (29/05/2025).

For 1%, in gaming prop firms it would mean 10 wins and 6 losses (for a +10% or -6% challenge, 1 Step, Static). In a real live account, it would become a plan to make 7% profit per month, which means 7 wins. However, the actual number of trades taken will usually be more than this due to the BE+1 feature and manually closed trades. About more than 30 trades.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.iM15-28052025-2-1.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.iM15-28052025-2-2.png Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.iM15-28052025-2-3.png Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.iM15-28052025-2-4.png Size: 24 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #640
  • May 31, 2025 10:23am May 31, 2025 10:23am
Spread for Gold/USD

I’ve been monitoring the spread for Gold/USD over the past few weeks on Myfxbook (which already includes commission). There are several brokers that are very stable, especially during market open and close. These brokers, ranked from the lowest spread onward, are:

  1. Blueberry
  2. JFD
  3. IUX
  4. JustMarkets
  5. BCR
  6. Lirunex
  7. Moneta
  8. StarTrader
  9. Fusion Markets
  10. Global Prime
  11. Oqtima
  12. IC Markets
  13. Doo Prime
  14. ThinkMarkets
  15. Axi

Brokers ranked 6 to 15 tend to have poor stability spreads when the market is closed and are also less stable during market open.
Below Trust Pilot rating for each Broker.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 6 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
0 traders viewing now