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The Swamp

  • #123,061
  • May 23, 2025 4:08pm May 23, 2025 4:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
The best I can see is I got a favorable close at 1362.... Something crazy can always happen over the weekend. {image}
hi Gator are you short eurusd and you expect a gap down. Am stuck in sell at 1.1310
  • #123,062
  • May 23, 2025 4:08pm May 23, 2025 4:08pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} that weekly candle kinda puts me off, but will wait and see how it develops have a good weekend Gator
Nothing wrong with not trading It is a pretty green candle on the week. It was bullish into 1367.. I think it will gap down.. But I hope its more than 5 pips. 60 again would be nice.. 100 even better
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,063
  • Edited 6:04pm May 23, 2025 5:46pm | Edited 6:04pm
Quoting euroboy2208
{quote} hi Gator are you short eurusd and you expect a gap down. Am stuck in sell at 1.1310
Tariff concerns continue to pressure equities, pushing them down. Then, when rates begin to rise, DT backs off. But as equities recover, the tariff talk ramps up again. This cycle keeps repeating.
When Treasury yields rise alongside tariff threats, it creates a bearish setup for the USD—at least until inflation starts to appear more clearly. These are conflicting forces: rising yields typically support the dollar, but equity weakness caused by tariff fear weighs on sentiment. So fundamentally, price action can swing either way.
The COT data I’m using reflects the largest traders—what many call the "smart money." Based on that, I expect price to fade away from the 1.1367 level. Still, it’s always just a tweet away from flipping direction.
Meanwhile, companies like Walmart are already warning about inflation. It just hasn’t shown up in government reports yet. If official inflation data starts to come in hot, the USD could rally sharply. That’s the fundamental case.
Technically, price was rejected at 1.1367 and failed to close above it, which supports the idea of a pullback. If this makes any sense, the large gap a few weeks ago was based on both the COT positioning and the miss of a nearby key level.
1.1367 is a meaningful level—what I’d consider an attractor. The other major attractor levels on my radar are 1.0808 and 1.035x. All of these carry weight.
Still, it’s important to note how fast the narrative can shift. For instance, just last night during a quiet news cycle focused on DT crypto corruption, a 50% tariff tweet on the EU suddenly appeared out of nowhere. Each time the news cycle inches toward corruption stories, a tweet comes flying in to redirect attention. One plane even cost Harvard foreign students . Just to change the news cycle
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,064
  • May 23, 2025 5:51pm May 23, 2025 5:51pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Tariff concerns are putting pressure on equities, pushing them down. Then, when rates start to rise, DT backs off. But as equities recover, the tariff talk ramps up again. This cycle keeps repeating. When Treasury yields rise at the same time as tariff threats, it creates a bearish setup for the USD—at least until inflation starts to show up more clearly. These are two opposing forces: rising yields usually support the dollar, but tariff-driven equity weakness weighs on sentiment. So fundamentally, price action can swing either way. The...
Hope there is a big gap down this Sunday on eurusd
  • #123,065
  • May 23, 2025 6:20pm May 23, 2025 6:20pm
Quoting euroboy2208
{quote} Hope there is a big gap down this Sunday on eurusd
It could gap up... I took a shot.. Plus over the weekend he may get some business leaders telling him to back off. He is costing the U.S. government billions in extra rates already. DOGE was supposed to cut 2 Trillian.. Its down to 150 Billion. And even the 150 billion numbers are not verified. In the bill they will subsidise farmers (bailout more than 150 billion). The supposingly Great budget adds 3 trillion $ to the deficit. It's all bullshit.. Wait until the red states like mine get a hurricane. FEMA is nowhere to be found in North Carolina from the last storm . Fema denied NC cleanup reimbursement. So people in Florida who can't afford insurance already will flee. We got a total cluster fuck coming if we see a big storm.. The red state politicians are voting against their own constituents. If you take a state like Kentucky where 60% are on medicaid.. There will be some pissed off constituents coming. They cant get FEMA help either.. The weather just gets worse each year. Climate change will be paid for, one way or another. As always it will be the peasants doing the paying
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,066
  • May 23, 2025 10:29pm May 23, 2025 10:29pm
Memorial Day will thin out a lot of the usual U.S. banks are closed, the NY session sits out, and even many prop shops and hedge funds stay on the sidelines. Here’s what to expect
Lower Liquidity & Wider Spreads
With all the big U.S. banks closed, liquidity drops off. Spreads will often widen noticeably, and executions can suffer slippage.
Asia & Europe Only
Forex never truly “shuts down,” but you’ll basically have only Asian and European flows Monday. The usual U.S. order‑flow that would chew through stops around 1.1367 simply isn’t there.
Gaps May Hold Longer
Because the major Friday close‑to‑Sunday open gap won’t get U.S. stop‑runs on Monday, small gaps are less likely to fill immediately. You can see a gap “lock in” until Tuesday when U.S. desks come back online.
Volatility Patterns Change
Without U.S. data or NY‑session momentum, moves tend to be chop‑heavy and range‑bound. If you were expecting a sharp gap down off a sub‑1.1367 weekly close, it may not play out until Tuesday.
Bulls Need:
Weekly close above 1.1367 to flip the script
Break and hold above 1.1376 high could challenge 1.1450 → 1.1600
Macro resistance flip would trap shorts and squeeze higher
Bears Favored If:
We continue rejecting 1.1367
Weekly close back below 1.1293 confirms weakness
Target 1 = 1.1214, Target 2 = 1.0851 / 1.0802


Basically I went with COT. It can be wrong. First off I need pa below 1290 and 1275 closing. A 1 min to start and later a day and so forth. PA above 1367 is against me.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,067
  • Edited 2:30am May 24, 2025 1:33am | Edited 2:30am
Quoting gatorinla
Memorial Day will thin out a lot of the usual U.S. banks are closed, the NY session sits out, and even many prop shops and hedge funds stay on the sidelines. Here’s what to expect Lower Liquidity & Wider Spreads With all the big U.S. banks closed, liquidity drops off. Spreads will often widen noticeably, and executions can suffer slippage. Asia & Europe Only Forex never truly “shuts down,” but you’ll basically have only Asian and European flows Monday. The usual U.S. order‑flow that would chew through stops around 1.1367 simply isn’t there....
iam leaning towards a downside momentum on the euro, and to confirm it this weeks cot shows that the non commercials started distributing last week and the non reportables are no doubt were long extremely long in the previous reports and based on this weeks priceaction they have definetly have more longs. Very good chances for euro to go down.

red are the non commercials,green are retailers,blue are commercials.
the cot on dx1 is also bullish
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  • #123,068
  • May 24, 2025 3:41am May 24, 2025 3:41am
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} trends(direction) can be measured by time-based SMA's, H4 chart show major periods MA's, week(W) month(B) 3M(Y). general direction is the largest MA, tradable direction is the smallest. the last major pullback did not break the general direction, and the tradable direction is pointing up. your target is way below all directions. {image}
trend is your friend until the bend at the end

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week view in H1 , direction/range/levels

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"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #123,069
  • May 24, 2025 8:27am May 24, 2025 8:27am
Quoting Karthikb
{quote} iam leaning towards a downside momentum on the euro, and to confirm it this weeks cot shows that the non commercials started distributing last week and the non reportables are no doubt were long extremely long in the previous reports and based on this weeks priceaction they have definetly have more longs. Very good chances for euro to go down. red are the non commercials,green are retailers,blue are commercials. the cot on dx1 is also bullish {image} {image} {image}
If it dont stay under 1367 it won't be good. The trend since 2008 has been down. COT and 1367 was my reason. If dont drop, than this is wrong. I took the trade because the potential gap setup. If I had a choice it would not be with a holiday Monday. Momentum is bullish. The week has a big beautiful green candle. I hope to see it replaced with a red one as big or larger. But if it blows past 1367 without retracing it can go further. If big mouth keeps bringing up tariffs and stupid shit like Canada, resorts in Gaza Strip, Greenland, gravesites 2000 miles from South Africa. Than we got a Mad King.. The usa will have 4 years of world decline. Russia was on a upswing until they let Putin be king. Who wants to invest there? We got the same thing here. Money is leaving already. Each time he says something stupid more money leaves. In 4 years a lot of damage can be done. He even said before the election this last time. It would be the last election. People are in denial of what's in plain sight.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,070
  • May 24, 2025 8:34am May 24, 2025 8:34am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If it dont stay under 1367 it won't be good. The trend since 2008 has been down. COT and 1367 was my reason. If dont drop, than this is wrong. I took the trade because the potential gap setup. If I had a choice it would not be with a holiday Monday. Momentum is bullish. The week has a big beautiful green candle. I hope to see it replaced with a red one as big or larger. But if it blows past 1367 without retracing it can go further. If big mouth keeps bringing up tariffs and stupid shit like Canada, resorts in Gaza Strip, Greenland, gravesites...
Oh sherbet. Im still in longs. About 30% of my account is on euro sells.
  • #123,071
  • May 24, 2025 8:36am May 24, 2025 8:36am
Quoting mars1
{quote} Oh sherbet. Im still in shorts..
Meant shorts
  • #123,072
  • May 24, 2025 8:54am May 24, 2025 8:54am
How much money is outflowing the us treasury in the past 4 months
The total outflow from the US Treasury over the past four months can be determined by analyzing the federal budget deficit during that period
. The deficit represents the amount by which government spending exceeds revenue.
Here is a breakdown of the deficit information available for January 2025 to April 2025:

  1. January 2025: The deficit was estimated at $129 billion.
  2. February 2025: The deficit was estimated at $308 billion. However, this includes some March payments that were shifted due to a weekend, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Adjusting for timing shifts, the deficit would have been $312 billion.
  3. March 2025: The deficit was estimated at $163 billion.
  4. April 2025: The federal government reported a surplus of $258 billion. (people paying their taxes in April)

Calculating the Net Outflow (Deficit):

The net outflow is found by summing the deficits and subtracting the surplus:
$129 billion (Jan) + $312 billion (Feb) + $163 billion (Mar) - $258 billion (Apr) = $346 billion.
Therefore, based on available data, the estimated net outflow from the US Treasury over the past four months (January 2025 - April 2025) is approximately $346 billion.
Important Considerations:

  1. The figures are based on estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Department of the Treasury.
  2. Timing shifts in payments can affect the monthly deficit figures, as seen in February and October 2025.
  3. The Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) provides detailed information on federal receipts and outlays. You can find more information on the Bureau of the Fiscal Service website.

is the 346 billion trajectory rising fast
The $346 billion net outflow from the US Treasury over the past four months may indicate a fast-rising trajectory. To determine this, compare it to previous periods and consider the economic context.
Comparison to Previous Periods:

  1. Fiscal Year 2024: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates show that the federal budget deficit for the first four months of fiscal year 2025 was significantly higher than the same period in fiscal year 2024.
  2. Fiscal Year 2025: The Bipartisan Policy Center reports that, even after adjusting for timing shifts in payments, the deficit was approximately 18% larger at the end of February 2025 than at the same point last year. This suggests a continuation of increasing deficits.
  3. Overall Economic Context:
  4. Increased government spending and a growing national debt are present. Contributing factors include rising healthcare costs, an aging population, and interest payments on the debt.
  5. Revenue growth has not kept pace with the growth in spending.
  6. Concerns about the long-term sustainability of the current fiscal path have been raised by organizations, including the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget and the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.
  7. Conclusion:
    Based on the available information, the $346 billion net outflow over the past four months, along with the broader trend of rising deficits and spending, suggests a fast-rising trajectory for government spending and debt. However, this is a snapshot in time and can be influenced by various factors, such as economic performance and policy decisions. A comprehensive analysis of the long-term fiscal outlook requires considering projections from organizations like the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).
  8. The new budget adds to this in the trillians..This is congress's CBO bean counters saying this.
  9. Our king listens to other nuts on the web. They are taking about redoing the treasury contracts already in place. Extending them and reducing interest payments. Just the mention of this will bring interest rates North on steroids. This is what happens when you dont take the keys from the guy with dementia. A leak in the roof only get worse. It dont magically fix itself.

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,073
  • May 24, 2025 9:05am May 24, 2025 9:05am
Above is partly why Moody's downgraded treasuries. The nail in the coffin was the proposed budget. That adds Trillions to the debt.. But hey lets have a 40 million dollar parade to celebrate the king.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,074
  • May 24, 2025 10:02am May 24, 2025 10:02am
Quoting gatorinla
Above is partly why Moody's downgraded treasuries. The nail in the coffin was the proposed budget. That adds Trillions to the debt.. But hey lets have a 40 million dollar parade to celebrate the king.
Your sarcastic but realistic views on the market economy and just life is what entertains . Lets see if irange man helps me with the sells on eu
  • #123,075
  • May 24, 2025 12:09pm May 24, 2025 12:09pm
Quoting mars1
{quote} Your sarcastic but realistic views on the market economy and just life is what entertains . Lets see if irange man helps me with the sells on eu
Its like wiping your ass before you poot. It just dont make sense. And the clowns who are doing it are left holding the bag. He has denial, he told them he was ok with taxing the top 1%, and he told them not to cut Medicaid. And what did they do, they did the opposite and also cut Medicare and Veteran spending. The 8 to 13 million to lose medicaid is mostly in red states. The Gulf coast is red states. Those are where the hurricanes hit. So lets do away with FEMA.. You can't make this shit up.
Now he can say. "I told them not to cut Medicaid"..The house leader is from my state.. What a bunch of morons would even let him drive a car. Idiots following a Moron off a cliff.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,076
  • May 25, 2025 2:08am May 25, 2025 2:08am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If it dont stay under 1367 it won't be good. The trend since 2008 has been down. COT and 1367 was my reason. If dont drop, than this is wrong. I took the trade because the potential gap setup. If I had a choice it would not be with a holiday Monday. Momentum is bullish. The week has a big beautiful green candle. I hope to see it replaced with a red one as big or larger. But if it blows past 1367 without retracing it can go further. If big mouth keeps bringing up tariffs and stupid shit like Canada, resorts in Gaza Strip, Greenland, gravesites...
iam worried about how the monthly looks. espesially on the dx it looks like it is on its way to take out previous months low. and we have a nice demand zone on the un adjusted monthly chart just below the low. similar on the euro too
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  • #123,077
  • May 25, 2025 4:53am May 25, 2025 4:53am
Quoting Karthikb
{quote} iam worried about how the monthly looks. espesially on the dx it looks like it is on its way to take out previous months low. and we have a nice demand zone on the un adjusted monthly chart just below the low. similar on the euro too {image} {image}
Most breakouts fail (not all)
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,078
  • May 25, 2025 6:08am May 25, 2025 6:08am
In that last gap it started about the time LC would have been. If not for it being a Sunday. Right around 4pm london time. 4hs + from now. Monday is a U.S. holiday.. So it may do nothing
Thanks for the Brave that give me my freedom.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,079
  • May 25, 2025 6:18am May 25, 2025 6:18am
Somebody had a good version of forex live feeds over the weekend.. I dont remember who.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #123,080
  • Edited 7:01am May 25, 2025 6:36am | Edited 7:01am
Quoting gatorinla
Somebody had a good version of forex live feeds over the weekend.. I dont remember who.
not me but i do check weekend price (not sure if the same source) seems like remain flat so far
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Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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