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vsa with Malcolm

  • #36,461
  • May 4, 2025 9:43am May 4, 2025 9:43am
this past week was great, 1 loss and 3 wins.
Crude oil first attempt on 1st ND was a loss as they took the high again, 2nd trade was a 5R win

6C Hourly ranging but overall uptrend, 5m setup after NFP, that 2 me is the perfect looking setup.

and thursday shorted 6E, hrly weakness, 5m entry short
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  • #36,462
  • May 8, 2025 5:38am May 8, 2025 5:38am
UJ potential short if a low vol test happens
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  • #36,463
  • May 11, 2025 6:35am May 11, 2025 6:35am
eur on volume down to continue

+ politics: russia and cn.usa tariffs

might be gap today...not hidden.

h1
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h3

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  • #36,464
  • Edited 11:13am May 12, 2025 10:53am | Edited 11:13am
Quoting 2be
{quote} Already long on DOW towards the 40k retest {image} WRB PA inside of that WRB on US sessions (daily / M30) chart {image} Some return to the gap might be on cards, so will add on the move up away from that intersession gap will also add above the last session close It is risky, as usual, the ride towards the last session close often presents less risk. What come after that is more risky for any direction - the beauty of trading. Sorry I have posted it by mistake on VSA thread, though in some ways it follow PA after a bit more complex selling...
Back from a break away, with DOW multi-entry position only quarterly futures, covered the longs for goodly amount of points.
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Will assess the situation after NYSE session close, and see the effort v result situation
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,465
  • May 13, 2025 3:45am May 13, 2025 3:45am
Quoting 2be
{quote} Back from a break away, with DOW multi-entry position only quarterly futures, covered the longs for goodly amount of points. {image} {image} {image} Will assess the situation after NYSE session close, and see the effort v result situation
DOW and all the leading US indices performed well and we are told the bulls are back, which is probably right.
Thinking of the US indices, the current situation is a perfect illustration of TA needs to be applied alongside fundamentals, or even the para fundamentals, (or trans fundamentals). When a given economy is shifting towards the re-industrialization, the outcome is certain, though it might take some time. Nothing will change the outcome, no legacy media or "know how to gurus" who for their own reason would like to meddle the minds of the for ever hopeful and confused liquidity providers, (at least the 95% of the likely readers of this post - sad statistic)
below are the M30 charts with DOW NYSE sessions
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Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,466
  • Edited 10:37am May 21, 2025 9:28am | Edited 10:37am
Hi everyone!
I would like to study VSA. Can you kindly direct me to something where to start, please.
This is a huge thread so maybe there's a summary or online course.
Thanks.
  • #36,467
  • Edited 9:08pm May 21, 2025 3:52pm | Edited 9:08pm
Quoting vmd108
Hi everyone! I would like to study VSA. Can you kindly direct me to something where to start, please. This is a huge thread so maybe there's a summary or online course. Thanks.
Hi vmd,
I would start with "The Undeclared Secrets That Drive the Stock Market", by Tom Williams
The book covers much more than VSA and lots of it is worth reading studiously

Most likely what one considers now as volume, at best is an indicative approximation of volume, often related to volatility as well.(IMHO)
Try not to get bogged down by the amount of new terms, and fancy indicators and so on.
Get the basic idea first and build on it with what you personally find interesting and useful.
Never loose common sense in favour to some empty promises and unrealistic expectations, though at times they might propose excitement and the most profitable breakthroughs.

Keep it simple and basic, and evaluate if what you do brings profits, if there is excitement but not profits, amend/change the approach.
Keep at it, wishing you good profits!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,468
  • May 21, 2025 4:44pm May 21, 2025 4:44pm
Quoting vmd108
Hi everyone! I would like to study VSA. Can you kindly direct me to something where to start, please. This is a huge thread so maybe there's a summary or online course. Thanks.
See post above.

Master the Markets by Tom Williams is the more available book. It was written after Undeclared Secrets. You can go to the Tradeguider website and find Master the Markets in either e-book or physical book form.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #36,469
  • May 22, 2025 9:47am May 22, 2025 9:47am
Quoting vmd108
Hi everyone! I would like to study VSA. Can you kindly direct me to something where to start, please. This is a huge thread so maybe there's a summary or online course. Thanks.
Hi,

Read the first 500 pages, is were most of the meat is.

Good Luck
Kind regards
  • #36,470
  • May 22, 2025 5:47pm May 22, 2025 5:47pm
If you look in the upper right hand corner of the thread, you will see an attachments icon with 12604 items (at the time of this post). Click on that and you will find various PDFs. I believe Master the Markets is one of them. I know Gavin's first book is there as well.

In addition, the VZA (a distinction without a difference) thread is shorter and will lay the ground work for how to use the Trigger Matrix.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #36,471
  • May 23, 2025 3:47am May 23, 2025 3:47am
Quoting HiddenGap
If you look in the upper right hand corner of the thread, you will see an attachments icon with 12604 items (at the time of this post). Click on that and you will find various PDFs. I believe Master the Markets is one of them. I know Gavin's first book is there as well. In addition, the VZA (a distinction without a difference) thread is shorter and will lay the ground work for how to use the Trigger Matrix.
Hi HiddenGap,
There is a is a lot of good stuff on PDFs on this thread indeed, a very good point to read them instead of every post.
Remember reading them years ago, some I have printed as well. From time to time it is good to go over some basic stuff, reinforcing what has been well tested and bring profits.
Your contrition to this thread has been very remarkable indeed.
For years I only have been trading indices, mainly DOW and NASDAQ, have been using NYSE session bars as a type of TF using cash futures 24 hrs charts, and other charts set to display only NYSE session. On the 24 hrs continuous charts one is able to see the MM and other type of specifically "inspired" PA, it is a great advantage to utilise that type of insight as well.
Once the basic VSA principles have bee adopted, they are there ready to assist PA interpretation, a bit like Fibs and measured moves, one can see them relatively fast with newly obtained and trained habits.
Wishing you good and profitable day!
2be
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,472
  • May 28, 2025 4:19pm May 28, 2025 4:19pm
Quoting 1odi
this past week was great, 1 loss and 3 wins. Crude oil first attempt on 1st ND was a loss as they took the high again, 2nd trade was a 5R win 6C Hourly ranging but overall uptrend, 5m setup after NFP, that 2 me is the perfect looking setup. and thursday shorted 6E, hrly weakness, 5m entry short {image} {image} {image} {image}
Hi!!!!

I hope everything is going well

I have been through some charts and as you know I trade similar to your way of trading.

I have look at your previous charts and I see that you are not using the last point of supply/demand as an entry line.

For example if we were going long.
You wait for stopping volume, then a rally that creates the last point of supply, then you have the pullback, the break of the supply line and the retest.
But instead I see that you are using the previous pivot before the stopping volume, then break of the pivot, pullback and entry, so you are not using the last point of supply to enter.

Please tell me why you stop using it, I'm very interested.

Are you entering this new way because you are closer to the bottom/top since many times waiting for the last point of supply and entering above it, many times prices rises a lot before creating the supply line and many times once broken does not retest, is this the reason

Are your win % better now, I suppose that trade frequency has increased

Could you explain I would really appreciated

Thanks
Kind regards
  • #36,473
  • May 29, 2025 1:36am May 29, 2025 1:36am
Quoting Frag8383
{quote} Hi!!!! I hope everything is going well I have been through some charts and as you know I trade similar to your way of trading. I have look at your previous charts and I see that you are not using the last point of supply/demand as an entry line. For example if we were going long. You wait for stopping volume, then a rally that creates the last point of supply, then you have the pullback, the break of the supply line and the retest. But instead I see that you are using the previous pivot before the stopping volume, then break of the pivot,...
hey
background, weakness or strenght on the hrly, or are we ranging! of we are ranging then buy low on fake break and same for the highs (sell). entry on 5m, waiting for the stopping vol and the AR to form, or if AR isn t clear then i need a support to break if selling and viceversa for buys. then simply wait for a low(ND, NS) or sometimes even high vol test to confirm. the test could be rejecting that fresh broken support or resistence, or could be closer to the high/low. market isn t perfect, but most of the times i d like to see that reject, cos if i m planning to sell i don t wanna see price coming back near the high that showed stopping vol on low vol, cos that could also mean the sellers aren t there anymore! dunno if that makes sence. i try to not be obsessed with a clear line in the sand as the market rarely respect a lvl to a T. hope this helps. cheers
  • #36,474
  • Jun 2, 2025 3:03pm Jun 2, 2025 3:03pm
after news price gap and trend up.
extreme volume on weekly bar. expecting higher prices long term.
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  • #36,475
  • Jun 2, 2025 4:48pm Jun 2, 2025 4:48pm
Quoting feralnature
after news price gap and trend up. extreme volume on weekly bar. expecting higher prices long term. {image} {image}
Well done.

For shits and giggles, I placed a trigger matrix on your chart. I have been focusing on the question about where to start learning Volume Spread Analysis (VSA). After reading Master the Markets, I would dive into the current Tradeguider method of learning:

1. Identify the most recent Ultra High Volume bar and the associated price bar.

  1. If the price bar closed DOWN, off its lows, and the next interval is UP, then we know that the Ultra High Volume bar contained Professional (Smart Money) Buying.
  2. if the price bar closed UP, off its highs, and the next interval is DOWN, then we know that the Ultra High Volume bar contained Professional (Smart Money) Selling.

The first principle here is:
Weakness, when it appears, usually appears on UP bars. And strength, when it appears, usually appears on DOWN bars. Weakness and strength are always confirmed with the next bar being Down or Up respectively.

2. Place the trigger matrix on the interval. In other words, FIB the high and the low of the bar in question. This will give you the 3 basic lines: the high (100%) the Low (0%) and the midpoint (aka halfback, mean threshold) (50%).

  1. only trade Long when price is above the 50% level.
  2. only trade Short when price is below the 50% level.

The VZA (a distinction without a difference) thread is a great source of information on basic trigger matrix set-ups. Note, I prefer to add the 25% and 75% levels, but that's just me.

3. Volume at Volume. More precisely, lack of volume at volume.

  1. If there is strength in the background (See 1), we are looking for Tests and No Supplies as entries.
  2. If there is weakness in the background (See 1), we are looking for No Demands as entries.
  3. These are low volume (volume less than the previous two intervals) signals

In essence, we are looking to see a lack of volume in an area where there once was massive volume. Later, we will bring in high volume signals like UpThrust, Squats (Effort vs Result), High volume Springs, and certain 2 bar reversals.

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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #36,476
  • Edited Jun 3, 2025 11:55am Jun 2, 2025 10:30pm | Edited Jun 3, 2025 11:55am
after the squat/squeeze bar the market continues to rally up, but on low steam.(volume)
closed this one - my trigger bar was probably profit taking and there is strength coming back to market.
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  • #36,477
  • Jun 4, 2025 7:58am Jun 4, 2025 7:58am
Hi guys,

I need help　　

On the attached chart called 1,

You see a blue bar moving upwards, after a base,

The bar labeled 1 is on high volume, bigger than the last 20 bars or so but it closes of the highs and the next candle is down and closing below the low of bar 1

So we can say that on bar 1 there was definitely selling.

On chart 2 you can see the result, prices moved up.

This kind of movement is preventing me from entry many trades.

My way of thinking was, ok big up volume followed by a down bar there must be selling, so later when it did make the pullback and run off I did not enter, because the volume on top.

I have looked for an exaggerated example, but it happens to me very often and I do not enter.

My question is how do you guys know that is selling at the start of a move, I can understand when the price has been rising for a while how big volumes reverse the price, but at the beginning of moves like the one show is what is not allowing me to enter trades.

Please help, any opinion about how you guys deal with this would be very appreciated

Thanks
Kind regards
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  • #36,478
  • Jun 4, 2025 9:11am Jun 4, 2025 9:11am
Quoting Frag8383
Hi guys, I need help　　 On the attached chart called 1, You see a blue bar moving upwards, after a base, The bar labeled 1 is on high volume, bigger than the last 20 bars or so but it closes of the highs and the next candle is down and closing below the low of bar 1 So we can say that on bar 1 there was definitely selling. On chart 2 you can see the result, prices moved up. This kind of movement is preventing me from entry many trades. My way of thinking was, ok big up volume followed by a down bar there must be selling, so later when it did make...
i go to a lower timeframe, it s same stuff just in more detail. what may appear as a SOW on the hrly or 15m for instance could actually be strenght on the lower timeframes. so just check to make sure. i always wanna see timeframes agreeing on either strenght (volume from the lows) and viceversa for weakness.
  • #36,479
  • Jun 4, 2025 1:45pm Jun 4, 2025 1:45pm
Quoting Frag8383
Hi guys, I need help　　 On the attached chart called 1, You see a blue bar moving upwards, after a base, The bar labeled 1 is on high volume, bigger than the last 20 bars or so but it closes of the highs and the next candle is down and closing below the low of bar 1 So we can say that on bar 1 there was definitely selling. On chart 2 you can see the result, prices moved up. This kind of movement is preventing me from entry many trades. My way of thinking was, ok big up volume followed by a down bar there must be selling, so later when it did make...
Thanks for the post. This is an interesting situation.

BAR:

1. Increasing spread UP bar that closes in the middle of its range on increasing (although not excessive) volume. The middle close is the first clue that there must have been some selling in this interval.

2. DOWN Bar on decreasing volume that closes off its lows. This confirms the weakness (selling) in Bar 1.

  1. This bar closes below the MA, making us inclined to think the trend is now down.


3. A Narrow range UP bar with volume less than the previous two intervals. This is No Demand.

  1. The close is below the MA, again making us inclined to think the trend is now down.


4. An increasing range UP bar that closes on its high and does not confirm the No Demand bar.

  1. Increasing volume , that is not excessive, on an UP bar that closes on its highs after a possible No Demand is a sign of strength.
  2. Price is now above the MA, indicating the trend may in fact be to the upside.


5. A DOWN bar that closes in the middle on decreasing volume. Two things are happening at once:

  1. The DOWN close indicates that there was some selling on the previous interval.
  2. The Middle close and the decreasing volume indicate the selling pressure isn't that great.
  3. Price remains above the MA.


6. This is either a Test or a Failed No Demand. Bar 7 UP. Therefore, it either confirms the Test or negates the No Demand. Either of which would be bullish.

  1. Price remains above the MA, indicating only longs should be taken.


8. Enter on the open of this interval.

*******

Although the volume at 1 was not Ultra High, if the subsequent No Demand had confirmed with the next bar down, and price closing below the MA, it would be a reasonable sell signal.

Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #36,480
  • Jun 4, 2025 2:03pm Jun 4, 2025 2:03pm
Thanks for the reply,

Different ways to look at it,

I have been going trough Malcolm is to trade long when the price is above the high of bar 1,

I have seen many of his charts and when he thinks that is buying or selling like on this case he waits for prices to cloes above the high of the selling bar.

Im not good at doing bar by bar analysis, but your explanation makes perfect sense

Once again thanks guys

kind regards
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