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The Swamp

  • #122,961
  • May 19, 2025 10:27am May 19, 2025 10:27am
Quoting gatorinla
NY is pressing.. {image}
NY is robbing me..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,962
  • May 19, 2025 10:40am May 19, 2025 10:40am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} NY is robbing me.. {image}
I survived for now.. Now can i get a 41 pip drop?
Maybe if it can get back below 1253.5
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,963
  • May 19, 2025 11:14am May 19, 2025 11:14am
1.1286 I had something there, missed the setup. Sell limit triggered in the wrong account though.
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  • #122,964
  • May 19, 2025 12:14pm May 19, 2025 12:14pm
Sup Gator,

Oh look... it still likes dustbins

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Take care
  • #122,965
  • May 19, 2025 6:24pm May 19, 2025 6:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I survived for now.. Now can i get a 41 pip drop? Maybe if it can get back below 1253.5 {image}
I had to close.. It looks like 1240 can support.. 1255 attraction.. It may or may not resist..1278 may resist ish
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,966
  • May 19, 2025 7:06pm May 19, 2025 7:06pm
Quoting gatorinla
It may drop, it may not. It may bounce 1215 ish or not. I think its going to 115x.. maybe deeper. NY pa may differ in my plans. 1257.4 would need to be taken {image}
1215 may lose its bounce power. But there is still the chance it runs to 1253/54.. With 1257.4 as a light R. In Asia and in the first few hs of london 1253/79 may be tested. I think pa is going to 115x.. During Asia early London it may be pushed up to lay a trap before. pa is toying around 1230 atm
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,967
  • May 19, 2025 8:26pm May 19, 2025 8:26pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1215 may lose its bounce power. But there is still the chance it runs to 1253/54.. With 1257.4 as a light R. In Asia and in the first few hs of london 1253/79 may be tested. I think pa is going to 115x.. During Asia early London it may be pushed up to lay a trap before. pa is toying around 1230 atm
I didnt thinks it would drop to 1218 near the 1216 target tonight. I thought 1230 would hold up better. But its soft and its the rejection that matters. Anyway here we are in Asia. 1253 still has its merit LC and all.. It has some R built in. I cant say it couldn't top there. But just maybe A push above 1278.x would do it better in a false break. That may be enough to stop out the 1253 shorters if it ran up another 30-40 pips. If that did happen. If it retreated back below 1278.. it may be a fake.. But if sustained above 1279, it may be real. If pa pushes 40 pips above 1253.. Have your glasses on looking for weakness in the bulls. Anytime now or early london (the first 2 hs ish in london) Moody's kicked the usd in the balls. LP COT is short. Hitting 129x may be what they want. To land this thing to 115x.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,968
  • Edited 5:12am May 20, 2025 5:01am | Edited 5:12am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I didnt thinks it would drop to 1218 near the 1216 target tonight. I thought 1230 would hold up better. But its soft and its the rejection that matters. Anyway here we are in Asia. 1253 still has its merit LC and all.. It has some R built in. I cant say it couldn't top there. But just maybe A push above 1278.x would do it better in a false break. That may be enough to stop out the 1253 shorters if it ran up another 30-40 pips. If that did happen. If it retreated back below 1278.. it may be a fake.. But if sustained above 1279, it may be...
After reaching 1278 it fell.. But the 12h did not close back below 1253.. It may try to break 1278 again. It may reach into the lower 1290s. 1293 was the last high when here last. The 12h also didnt break 1278. It closed below it. The bears were too weak to close below 1253, and too strong to close below 1278. It may wick into 1290..
Something has to give 53 or 78. Mondays pa. still points to 115x..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,969
  • May 20, 2025 6:14am May 20, 2025 6:14am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} After reaching 1278 it fell.. But the 12h did not close back below 1253.. It may try to break 1278 again. It may reach into the lower 1290s. 1293 was the last high when here last. The 12h also didnt break 1278. It closed below it. The bears were too weak to close below 1253, and too strong to close below 1278. It may wick into 1290.. Something has to give 53 or 78. Mondays pa. still points to 115x..
There may be some scalps in here... The 12h close didnt seem to favor one side. R 1278, but in this tight area it may reach into some liquidity 129X and fall back below 1278.. Currently its below 1278 and 1253. That leans to the bears.. But it may be unable to go far with the 12h not giving its blessing. To rise it needs to take 1278 and hold it sustained above it. A reject from 1278 or above, falling back below 1278 could be what it takes to fall.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,970
  • Edited 6:46am May 20, 2025 6:35am | Edited 6:46am
[quote=gatorinla;15251383]{quote}
There may be some scalps in here... The 12h close didn’t seem to favor either side. Resistance is at 1278, but in this tight range, it might reach into some liquidity around 129X before falling back below 1278. Right now, price is below both 1278 and 1253 — that leans things toward the bears. Still, it may not go far without the 12h giving its blessing. For a sustained rise, it needs to reclaim 1278 and hold above it. A rejection from 1278 or higher, followed by a drop back below, could be the trigger to fall.
The calendar doesn’t show much movement, but those bond auctions are starting to hurt the USD again. Big Mouth keeps pushing the stock market down, but Treasury buyers don’t play games. Price action right now is like a banana peel — waiting for Big Mouth to trip us all into a big-ass mess.
The little boy’s only got so many times he can cry wolf. Moody’s already said it’s been too many. Walmart let out a silent scream — loud as hell if you understand the game. When you stack up their overhead, a retailer might be lucky to clear 5% in a good climate. Most are closer to half that. If you expect Walmart to "eat" a 10%+ tariff without raising prices, you’re a damn fool — or you want empty shelves.
Free market? My ass. We got a dictator telling Walmart to lose money to cover for his dumb ass. That’s the world’s largest private employer, and he’s screwing it with a grin. Bring back the brown suit. He’ll say something stupid again — that’s a given. And some dumbass will say, “he meant something else.” Another given. Bend over — you’re the one givin’.
There’s only so many times this fool can push against a massive cliff before it cracks. Once the Treasury loses its loyal buyers, we may be staring down Prime rates in the double digits again.
Stagflation is the mother of all bitches.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,971
  • May 20, 2025 10:55am May 20, 2025 10:55am
Quoting FT.Trader
I bought some GLD call options today. I think Gold will retrace to the center line of the 20 day price channel within the next 2 days {image}
Closed my gold calls today.Flat
  • #122,972
  • May 20, 2025 11:12am May 20, 2025 11:12am
Quoting gatorinla
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} There may be some scalps in here... The 12h close didn’t seem to favor either side. Resistance is at 1278, but in this tight range, it might reach into some liquidity around 129X before falling back below 1278. Right now, price is below both 1278 and 1253 — that leans things toward the bears. Still, it may not go far without the 12h giving its blessing. For a sustained rise, it needs to reclaim 1278 and hold above it. A rejection from 1278 or higher, followed by a drop back below, could be the trigger to fall. The
...
since, no return to 1278, the bottom was limited to 1223x. todays range about 60 pips.. about 60% of adr.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,973
  • May 20, 2025 2:05pm May 20, 2025 2:05pm
Grandpa will be on the tube shortly. He is supposed to be talking about spending many billion$ more (golden dome). That should help with Moody's reason for a downgrade.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,974
  • Edited 2:30pm May 20, 2025 2:19pm | Edited 2:30pm
Today has a chance to close above 1278.3. That may be a bullish breakout sign. If it dont close today above 1278.3. It may reject to 1230. Sunstained below 1230 can be a bearish breakout.
1258 68 - can be somewhat gauging if below 1258 closing. Its testing 1278 hard atm.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,975
  • May 20, 2025 3:49pm May 20, 2025 3:49pm
Quoting gatorinla
Today has a chance to close above 1278.3. That may be a bullish breakout sign. If it dont close today above 1278.3. It may reject to 1230. Sunstained below 1230 can be a bearish breakout. 1258 68 - can be somewhat gauging if below 1258 closing. Its testing 1278 hard atm. {image}
dont now how it would develop from here but bull looks like they have took back control with 132x next in sight.
bear has a lot to do if they want to achieve 1.0802 by the end of Q2
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #122,976
  • May 20, 2025 7:57pm May 20, 2025 7:57pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} dont now how it would develop from here but bull looks like they have took back control with 132x next in sight. bear has a lot to do if they want to achieve 1.0802 by the end of Q2
The Monday move is common if COT was bearish the week before. COT was moves were made before close last Tuesday. After that Moody's cut the rating. Yesterday rates came back to the 4.5% area as stocks fell. So as people were pulling money out of stocks, they were not buying treasuries with that money. That's not a good sign for the world view of the USD. Each time it has recovered. He has said something stupid again to hurt the usd. Moody's is more about the budget. The budget blows a hole in the deficit. The extended tax breaks are 3X the cuts. At the same time the cut by Moody's will keep some financial markets from buying treasuries.. Making the debt cost more to finance. Further weakening the USD standings in markets. That's one way to look at it. But there's a cause and effect that can work against a weak usd. This also raises the Bank rates to borrow money. People will borrowing less. At the same time any import has its prices raised 10%+. Inflation comes. Walmart has told us inflation is coming. The ports off the West Coast are cut way down. COT is likely based on this inflation outlook, without the Moodys cut baked in. It looks bullish tonight, but it can be turn bearish. It can reach 115x this week, most often Wednesday. The COT market is pricing in the inflation. So keep an eye open on loss of the 1275 level to start, followed by the others I posted.. This pa above 1275/78 now is breakout bullish. But only if held.. 1284 75 68 42 30.. Sustained below 1230 may reach 1155 ish. There is no doubt it's reaching higher atm. Today closed this week's COT.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,977
  • May 20, 2025 8:15pm May 20, 2025 8:15pm
ATM We have a HH in the Asian session this happens about 20% of the time. . 60/70% of the time those are reversed in the London or the U.S session.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,978
  • May 20, 2025 9:01pm May 20, 2025 9:01pm
RIP Norm.
https://variety.com/2025/tv/obituari...rs-1236404992/
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,979
  • May 20, 2025 9:48pm May 20, 2025 9:48pm
closing mine here at 1325
using 1/2 the gain to finance a short
tp 1258/60. maybe some part 1155
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,980
  • May 20, 2025 9:57pm May 20, 2025 9:57pm
I see this in EU
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