What happen in the market today?

Gold prices are getting higher amid the US-China trade war

Although some banks in Europe closed yesterday to celebrate Easter, it seems that this did not stop the increase in gold prices. Gold again formed a new all-time high at 3430 after successfully breaking the prior ATH of 3357. The gold price drew a long bullish body candle with almost no shadow on the top and bottom of the candle. The gold price formed a high of 3430 low of 3328, closing at 3423.

Will gold soon reach 3500 as some analysts hope, or are they wary of a possible reversal?

The main US-China trade war has created market uncertainty and fear of recession. Gold, as a safe-haven asset, benefits from market uncertainty. However, the gold price also fluctuates; when the price is considered overvalued, it allows some investors to release gold to take profit. This could cause a temporary reversal if the market releases large amounts of gold.

Recently, China threatened countries negotiating tariffs with the Trump administration. China said that the soft approach would ultimately fail on both sides and harm the other party. They also emphasized that negotiations conducted by several countries with the US would sacrifice the interests of that country. Furthermore, China threatened to take retaliatory action against countries that negotiate tariffs that sacrifice China's interests.

Almost all countries were imposed a base import tariff of 10% by Trump, while China imposed a base tariff of up to 145% and a reciprocal tariff of up to 245%.. China then responded with a 125% tariff on imported goods from the US.

Meanwhile, in the US, the feud between Powell and Trump has become a hot issue in the country, reflecting the political turmoil over the country's economic instability. Trump threatened to fire Powell because Trump was dissatisfied with the Fed, which was burning amid the polemic of Trump's tariff policy. Trump has repeatedly said that he wants interest rate cuts to help stimulate economic growth, along with the tariff policy he has implemented. However, the Fed has not yet cut interest rates. On the other hand, the Fed is being more cautious in its interest rate policy because the inflation target has not been achieved amidst a tariff policy that is predicted to cause an increase in inflation.

The Fed's current interest rate is 4.50%. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its May 7 meeting with a probability level of 96.3%.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six other major currencies, is increasingly slumping to a low of 97.92 after breaking a low of 99.222. The DXY price is increasingly moving away from the EMA 20, reflecting strong bearish sentiment even though the RSI has pointed to level 23, which is the oversold zone level.

Silver Price Rises Despite Gold Price Drop

Yesterday, we witnessed something different between gold and silver. These two precious metals usually have a positive correlation, meaning if the gold price rises, then the silver price rises, and vice versa. If gold falls, then silver falls. However, a different condition occurred on April 4, Wednesday, the silver price soared, on the other hand, the gold price fell, which means there is a negative correlation between the two precious metals. Yesterday, silver drew a long-bodied bullish candle with a shadow at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 33,668 low of 32,091, and closed at 33,562. Elsewhere, the gold price plunged to a low of 3260 in a two-day decline in a row.

Why did this happen? If we look at the history of price changes, when the gold price rose gradually in succession from April 9 and reached a new all-time high of 3500, on the other hand, the Silver price moved more in the range of support 32.00 and resistance 33.00. As many analysts predict the price of gold can reach 3500 soon, this value is the target value of many large investors, and when the price of gold is considered overvalued, some traders take profit taking action and diversify by adding portfolios to other assets such as Silver, Bitcoin which are experiencing a price spike.

Analysts estimate that the increase in Silver prices and the fall in Gold were triggered by the easing of the US-China trade war, from the statement of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who stated that there would be a decrease in tensions in the trade war with China. In a meeting with investors held by JPMorgan Chase. In the meeting, Bessent said, no one thought that the current status quo could be maintained. He further added that if negotiations resulted in an agreement in the next two to three years, it would be a big win.

The response in the US market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1,016.57 points (2.66%) and closed at 39,186.98 points. The S&P 500 recorded an increase of 2.51% and closed at 5,287.76 points. While the Nasdaq Composite soared 2.71% and ended at 16,300.42 points. In contrast to gold, which received negative support from the increase in the Wall Street index, silver surprisingly jumped after breaking through the resistance level of 33.00. In addition to the reason for diversifying investment in silver, the increase was also triggered by increasing demand in industries such as Electric Vehicles (EVs), electronics, power and cable, mining, etc. US stocks closed higher on Wednesday, as easing U.S.-China trade tensions and President Trump's assurance that he will not remove Fed Chairman Jerome Powell boosted sentiment.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar against six major currencies, rose to a high of 99.939, extending Tuesday's prior bullish candle. Currently, the DXY value is still below the 20 EMA, which may be a dynamic resistance amid bearish sentiment.

Today, investors will be waiting for the release of US Unemployment Claims news, which is expected to increase by 222k from the previous 215k. This data is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor market conditions and is a major consideration in controlling monetary policy.

Gold prices are reluctant to rise higher but still hold above the 3200 price level

After gold prices reached a new all-time high of 3500, they significantly fell for two consecutive days to reach a low of 3260. However, after that, the decline in gold paused at that level and tried to recover. Prices are still moving in the range of 2600-3370 in the two trading days last weekend.

Gold prices drew a bearish candle at the end of the market session by forming a high of 3370 low of 3265, closing at 3318.

Although the dollar index (DXY) weakened slightly, it did not seem to have a high impact on gold. DXY fell slightly from a high of 99.885 to a low of 99.587 below EMA 20. In the three days of the market, DXY movements tended to be in the range of low 98.863 to high 99.939.

Gold prices seem quite sensitive to Trump's policies and their developments regarding the results of these policies. Along with the decline in gold prices, Trump stated that trade negotiations with China were going very well, which statement is estimated to have caused a weakening of more than 1% for Gold on that day.

According to a WSJ report, the Trump administration is considering cutting tariffs on Chinese goods to de-escalate the trade conflict. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has acknowledged that current tariff levels are unsustainable for both China and the U.S.

Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, China is considering suspending 125% tariffs on some US imports, including medical equipment and aircraft leases.
US Consumer Sentiment deteriorated in April, according to the University of Michigan (UoM), which reported its fourth-lowest reading since the late 1970s.

This week, traders are watching the release of the US JOLTS report for March, the first reading of Q1 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and the April Nonfarm Payrolls figures. These high-impact news releases are of concern to traders because they can have a high impact on market responses.

The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its May 7 meeting with a 90.3% probability according to the Fedwatch tool by CME Group. US 10-year treasury bonds fell slightly -0.05% to 4.255% according to CNBC data.

Amid the US-China trade war, USD/CNH falls to 7.2563

The trade war involving the world's two largest economies, the US and China, is in the market spotlight alongside Trump's tariffs on many other countries. It started with Trump threatening China with high trade tariffs, then China retaliated with similar actions for US goods, further increasing trade tensions between the two countries, the impact of which may affect other countries that are dependent on the two largest economies.

The Chinese Yuan currency traded in the offshore market had weakened to 7.4288 on April 8, when Trump began to apply trade tariffs to many countries. The USD looked strong at that time, marked by the CNH weakening for three consecutive days. However, the weakening of the CNH did not last long. The price then fell again for three consecutive days and reached a low of 7.2784 on April 11. After that, the USDCNH pair moved more in the range, slowly leaning towards strengthening the Renminbi.

Despite being threatened by Trump with some tariffs, Chinese policymakers expressed their optimism about economic growth. When the US imposed new tariffs, China retaliated with tariffs on US goods. This action again made Trump renew higher tariffs, even though China faced tariffs of up to 245% because it retaliated with 125% tariffs on the US.

China gave a different response from a number of other countries who wanted negotiations and finally there was a 90-day delay in the process by Trump.

Investing.com reports that Zhao Chenxin, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s state planner, said he was “very confident” the country would hit its economic growth target of around 5% for 2025.

Others from the International Monetary Fund, Goldman Sachs and UBS have all recently revised down their growth forecasts for China through 2025 and into 2026, citing the impact of Trump’s tariffs – none of them expect the economy to hit Beijing’s official growth target.

The trade war comes at a time when China is struggling with deflation due to slow income growth and a prolonged property crisis, analysts expect Beijing to provide more monetary and fiscal stimulus to support growth.

The US and China will both release key economic data today that could get some attention and trigger volatility, with China’s PMI and the US releasing GDP, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, and Core PCE price index, key fundamental indicators.

USD/CAD is quite stable as many banks are closed to commemorate Labor Day

Yesterday, the USDCAD pair drew a small bearish candle between the middle and lower band lines. The price formed a high of 1.38554, a low of 1.37698, and a close of 1.37966. The price is quite stable, even though the Canadian dollar looks stronger amid the weakening US dollar.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against other major currencies, shows an average value below the 20 EMA line, indicating a bearish sentiment on the DXY. Now the DXY is pointing to a value of 99.607, moving up from a low of 99.143, tending to be stable for six new movements in the range.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) in the minutes of its April 16 meeting revealed a split between cutting interest rates or holding steady due to looming tariff risks. The BOC member who supported the cut said the bank would have the flexibility to reduce interest rates further as long as medium to long-term inflation expectations remain subdued. BoC members who supported no change, on the other hand, wanted more information on U.S. tariffs, favoring a wait-and-see approach.

Meanwhile, economic data released Wednesday showed a contraction in Canadian GDP. The economy shrank by 0.2% after growing 0.4% in January. The impact of February’s GDP data is expected to remain limited on the Canadian dollar (CAD) as investors look for clues on how the Canadian economy is doing after the imposition of tariffs on cars.

On the other hand, US data shows GDP also contracted. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported the economy contracted for the first time in three years due to a sharp surge in imports. The US economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of this year on an annualized basis. The negative GDP figure was much lower than the previous period of 2.4% seen in the last quarter of 2024. While the US ADP Employment Change data for April was lower than expected, the ADP release showed a figure of 62k from a previously revised 147k, which was much smaller than the expected 114k.

Meanwhile, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data were 0.0% lower than the expected 0.1% from the previous release of 0.5%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said Personal income increased 0.5% to $116.8 billion in March, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.7% to $134.5 billion.

Today, several European and Asian banks are closed in observance of Labor Day, possibly affecting the volume of transactions in the financial markets. However, investors will pay attention to the US Unemployment Claims and PMI data, which are also important indicators of the US economy.

Bitcoin is up at 97428. Are investors starting to choose riskier assets over safe-haven assets?

BTCUSD drew a bullish candle on May 1 with a higher close than the previous high. The price formed a high of 97428 low of 93991 close of 96497 on the FXOpen platform. BTCUSD has been moving in a daily range for more than a week of trading. On the other hand, the gold price is down at a low of 3201 at the time of writing, indicating a negative correlation with Bitcoin. This is quite interesting because while gold is moving more in a bullish sentiment, Bitcoin is moving more in a bearish sentiment.

Meanwhile, the Dollar Index (DXY) extended gains at 100.375, slightly below the 20 EMA. A break of the dynamic resistance of the 20 EMA allowed the DXY to find new resistance near 102.575 based on the 50 EMA. Meanwhile, the RSI line drew an upward channel at the 43 level, reflecting the price moving away from the oversold level, although still below the downtrend level.

The increasing interest of investors in Bitcoin can be seen from the fear and greed index indicator at 51, although this is a neutral level, it has increased from a value of 26 when Bitcoin fell.

Latest news, Micro Strategy continues its mission to collect as much Bitcoin as possible. This was reported by the official account of Strategy's leader, Michael Saylor, via the X platform on Monday (4/21/2025). Last week, the company again bought Bitcoin in large quantities, worth more than US$ 555 million. Based on data from Lookonchain, Strategy has bought 6,556 BTC at an average price of US$ 84,785 per coin. With this purchase, their total Bitcoin holdings have now reached 538,200 BTC, worth around US$ 46.83 billion

Previously, MicroStrategy stopped buying Bitcoin when the value of Bitcoin collapsed to a low of around 74k. According to the BitcoinTreasuries.net site, Strategy now owns more than 2 percent of the total Bitcoin circulating in the world. This makes them the largest Bitcoin holder among public companies.

On the other hand, the US economy is contracting. Tuesday's GDP report showed an unexpected contraction of a 0.3% annualized pace, missing the expected 0.4% growth, indicating stronger chances of entering a stage of stagflation. Meanwhile, the Fed is still reluctant to cut interest rates due to high inflation due by Trump's tariff policy. Powell's stance of being reluctant to lower interest rates has even been threatened with dismissal by Trump, who considered Powell too slow.

US Unemployment Claims also increased by 241k, higher than the expected 234k and the previous revision of 223k. Meanwhile, the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) revealed Manufacturing PMI at 48.7%, 0.3 percentage point lower compared to the 49 percent recorded in March. Services PMI at 50.8%, indicating expansion for the 55th time in 58 months since recovery from the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession began in June 2020. Hospital PMI at 51% in March, a 5-percentage point decrease from the February reading of 56 percent.

Today, the US will release important news on Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings, which are important economic indicators for investors to pay attention to.

USD/CHF steady ahead of CPI data release

USDCHF on Friday drew a bearish candle with shadows on the upper and lower sides, where the lower shadow is longer than the upper shadow. The price formed a high of 0.83180 low of 0.82057 and closed at 0.82539.

The Swiss Franc pair weakened as the US Dollar continued its correction after the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April in early trading, but the Swiss Franc eventually strengthened to close lower than the opening price.

The NFP report showed that the economy added 177k new jobs, much higher than the estimate of 130k, but slightly lower than March's reading of 185k. The Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.2%, as expected.

The Fed is predicted to keep interest rates on hold despite President Trump trying to pressure the Fed to cut rates soon. According to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed holding rates at 4.50% is 96.8% at its May 7 meeting.

Trump wrote via Truth.Social "Gasoline prices just hit $1.98 a gallon, lowest in years, grocery prices (and eggs!) are down, energy is down, mortgage rates are down, employment is strong, and lots of other good news, as billions of dollars are flowing in from tariffs. As I said, we are just in the transition phase, just getting started!!! Consumers have been waiting years to see prices come down. No inflation, the Fed must lower rates!!!

The Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against a basket of six major currencies on Friday drew a bearish candle with an open of 100.179 high of 100.328 low of 99.397 close of 100.036. The DXY tried to rise but was held back by the 20 EMA, which acted as dynamic resistance at 100.471.

Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc's performance in the last week's movement tended to be mixed, with steady movement in the market range of 0.81953 - 0.83346 near the middle band line.

Today ahead of the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the Swiss Franc is slightly lower than the open. The Swiss CPI is expected to grow by 0.2% month-on-month after remaining flat in March.

Gold prices rise again amid rising geopolitical risks

Yesterday's gold price rose, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow on the top and bottom of the candle. Gold prices formed a high of 3337, a low of 3237, and a close of 3332. Prices rose after trying to cross the middle band line but failed to extend the decline.

The increase in gold prices is also in line with increasing geopolitical risks. The Houthi attack on Israel's Ben Gurion airport this weekend has increased geopolitical tensions. Israel vowed to retaliate while preparing a broad flat offensive in Gaza has increased risks in the region.

Elsewhere, US President Donald Trump said that military action may be an option being considered for the US to control Greenland.

The appeal of gold rose again as traders awaited the Fed's interest rate decision. It is expected that the Fed will still leave interest rates unchanged. Although Trump again expressed his dissatisfaction with the Fed and Jerome Powell. After calling Powell "rigid", the US President asked members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to pressure Chairman Powell to cut interest rates.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar against six other major currencies, fell and drew a small-bodied bearish candle with a slight shadow on the top and bottom of the candle. DXY formed a high of 100.050 low of 99.464, and closed at 99.796. The movement of DXY is still below the 20 EMA, reflecting the weakening performance of the USD. Meanwhile, the RSI level points to level 41 with a downward channel indicating that the DXY value is more dominant to the downside.

Global economic uncertainty due to the impact of Trump's tariff policy has also triggered investors to choose safe-haven assets. Over the weekend, Trump announced a 100% tariff on films produced abroad. Trump added that the US is meeting with many countries, including China, and that his top priority is to reach a deal with Beijing.

In the Gold mining sector, there was some takeover news with Gold Road Resources agreeing to be bought for $3.7 billion after an improved offer from South Africa's Gold Fields, resolving a public dispute between the joint venture partners, the Financial Review reported.

Ahead of unemployment data, NZD/USD rises to 0.60133

The New Zealand dollar rose yesterday, drawing a medium-bodied bullish candle with a small shadow at the bottom of the candle. The pair formed a high of 0.60133 low of 0.59435, and closed at 0.60047.

In the Asian market, the New Zealand dollar fell to a low of 0.59435 from the previous open of 0.59650 along with disappointing Chinese economic data. China's services sector grew at its weakest pace since September, with the Caixin Services Purchasing Managers' Index in April falling to 50.7 from 51.9 in March, well below the forecast of 51.7.

The New Zealand dollar is influenced by the Chinese economy as the country is New Zealand's largest trading partner; the China-US trade war could affect the New Zealand economy due to trade correlations across the countries.

The dollar index (DXY) is still under pressure, moving below the EMA 20. The DXY, which tracks the performance of the US dollar against six major currencies, drew a bearish candle yesterday, falling from a high of 100.097 to a low of 99.172. The weakening of the US dollar against other major currencies indicates that this currency is losing its power or level of confidence as a safe-haven currency. The USD's performance has been poor during the Trump administration so far.

The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its next rate release at 4.50%, despite President Trump trying to pressure Powell. However, Powell is expected to budge, according to the CME group's Fedwatch tool, the possibility of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged is 96.8% while the forecast for a cut is only 3.1%.

The US-China trade war is still a concern in NZDUSD trading, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Trump at the weekend about approaching a trade deal. However, Trump rejected any immediate talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. China's Ministry of Commerce confirmed that they were reviewing the US proposal to restart negotiations.

Today, New Zealand will release data on the unemployment rate and employment change, which are important indicators of the New Zealand economy. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to rise to 5.3% from the previous 5.1%. If the actual value is lower than the forecast, it means that the economy is improving, which in turn can affect the New Zealand dollar. Employment Change is expected to rise 0.1%, a higher-than-expected actual reading is good for the currency.

The Fed leaves rates unchanged, USD strengthens against GBP

The Fed eventually kept interest rates at 4.50% despite pressure from President Trump, who even threatened to fire Powell. GBPUSD drew a long-bodied bearish candle above the middle band line. Price formed a high of 1.33790 low of 1.32799 close of 1.32922 on the FXOpen trading platform.

The Fed unanimously kept interest rates at 4.25%–4.50% as expected. Economic uncertainty has increased with risks of rising inflation and unemployment, although they acknowledged that the economy continues to grow, solidly supported by a resilient labor market. However, the Fed will still wait for the Trump administration to take shape and see its impact on the sluggish economy.

The Fed's consideration is locked in negotiations with US trading partners for 90 days starting in early April and imposing a 10% across-the-board tariff on US imports. The trade war has shown conflicting signals about growth, inflation, and consumer and business sentiment. US GDP fell 0.3% in Q1, Wall Street economists expect the economy to bounce back in Q2.

President Trump is pushing the Fed to cut interest rates as the preferred key inflation gauge reads 2.3% or 2.6% on a core basis that excludes food and energy.

The dollar index (DXY) that tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies has risen in response to the Fed's interest rate decision. DXY rose slightly to a high of 99.972 from a low of 99.286 and is still moving below the 20 EMA.

Today, investors will pay attention to the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate, which is expected to fall by 25 basis points from 4.50% to 4.25%. Meanwhile, US data awaits the release of unemployment claims, which are expected to fall by 231k from the previous 241k. Today, French banks will be closed in observance of Victory Day.

Canadian dollar weakens on US-UK trade deal

The Canadian dollar declined on Thursday, and the USDCAD currency pair rose, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with almost no shadow. The price formed a high of 1.39329 low of 1.38131, and closed at 1.39188.

Progress in the US-UK trade deal has given a boost to the broad market sentiment towards the US dollar. The US dollar (USD) is in broad demand on hopes that the Trump administration will speed up the signing of a trade deal to avoid self-imposed trade tariffs.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies, rose 0.77% from a low of 99.609 to a high of 100.763, trying to cross the 20 EMA and giving an indication of a bullish trend transition. The RSI drew an ascending channel at the 47 level, potentially crossing the neutral 50 level.

While details of the deal are scarce, the Trump administration rushed to announce a forthcoming trade deal with the United Kingdom (UK) on Thursday, fueling market expectations that President Trump will find a way to avoid self-imposed tariffs. Despite the impending trade deal, all goods imported into the US from the UK are still subject to a 10% tariff. The exemption is for key UK goods, such as refined ethanol, which the US has not imported from the UK for more than 15 years.

While US-Canada trade tensions remain high, the US relies heavily on key imports from Canada, including assembled cars, auto parts, light crude oil from the Alberta oilsands, and critical crop fertilizers. Ninety percent of US potash supplies are imported, as the country cannot produce enough to meet its internal demand. A grace period for reciprocal tariffs expires on June 9, following a 90-day tariff moratorium.

Today, investors are awaiting the release of Canadian employment data. Employment Change is expected to rise 6.1k from a previously revised -32.6k. And the Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 6.8% from the previous revised 6.7% according to forexfactory.

USDCNH opens with a wide bearish gap today

The USDCNH price movement last week tended to move in bullish sentiment due to the strengthening of the US dollar amid news of the US-UK trade deal, which supported the strengthening of the US dollar. On Friday, the USDCNH price drew a small-bodied bearish candle with a short wick on the top candle. The price formed a high of 7.2526, a low of 7.2338, closing at 7.2383, moving between the middle and lower bands.

At the opening of the market today, USDCNH experienced a bearish gap where the price opened at 7.2226, far below Friday's close at 7.2383. The strengthening of the Chinese currency was supported by stronger-than-expected Chinese trade data for April, which showed Beijing's export growth remained strong amid fierce tariff exchanges with the US.

Last Saturday, according to CNBC, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly met in Geneva, Switzerland, to negotiate the two countries' tariff policies. During his visit to Switzerland this time, Prime Minister He Lifeng is also reported to have met with WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala in Geneva. The WTO is under the UN and has so far acted as a trade supervisor among its member countries.

The outcome of the meeting has not been revealed. According to Reuters, the details of the location of the meeting, which took place in the Swiss diplomatic area, were not disclosed to the public. However, as reported by Reuters, after the lunch break, the two delegations were said to have returned to the residence of the Swiss Ambassador to the UN, located in Cologny, although smiling when leaving the hotel, Bessent refused to speak to reporters.

Trump himself, through a post on the Truth Social social media on Friday (9/5), signaled that the tariff policy might be reviewed. United States (US) President Donald Trump proposed an 80% tariff on Chinese goods ahead of negotiations between the two countries.

The fierce US-China tariff war has become a hot topic in the financial market because the two countries have the world's largest economies. The tension of the tariff war was started by Trump after announcing a new, higher import tariff policy against various countries, including China.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar against six other major currencies, showed a decline on Friday by drawing a bearish candle with a wick on the top and bottom of the candle. DXY formed a high of 100.862 low of 100.086 close of 100.424. Although it has crossed the EMA 20 but the reversal has not occurred fully. RSI is now at level 47, the price trend is still below the downtrend level.

Today one tentative news will be released by China regarding new loans, which measures the value of new yuan-denominated loans issued to consumers and businesses during the previous month, estimated to increase 710 B from the previous revision of 364 B.

Pound sterling falls as US-China deal to cut tariffs for 90 days

Yesterday, GBPUSD fell, drawing a long-bodied bearish candle with a small shadow on the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 1.32993, a low of 1.31401, closing at 1.31749, trying to cross the lower band line.

The pound sterling fell as news of a 90-day tariff delay agreement between the US and China, the world's two largest economies. The US reduced tariffs from 115% to 30% on Chinese goods, while Beijing cut tariffs to 10% on US imports. This deal is a 90-day delay, effective May 14.

This news has had a positive impact on the US dollar and some US trade assets because the deal could avert a recession that has been a concern for investors.

According to Reuters, Washington and China have agreed to lower import duties by 115%. This shows that the current tariffs in the US and China are 10% and 30% respectively. However, Bessent added that the fentanyl issue has not been resolved, so the tariffs on China remain at 30%.

The US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies, has risen strongly as indicated by a long bullish candle that crossed the 20 EMA from the downside, approaching the 50 EMA line. The DXY rose to a high of 101.977 from a low of 100.510. The RSI is pointing to the 57 level with the rising channel reflecting a more bullish DXY.

The expected further impact of the US-China deal is to ease concerns about high consumer inflation and raise hopes for the Fed to ease monetary policy.

Today, investors will focus on UK and US economic news. The UK will release news on Claimant Count Change, which measures the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits during the previous month. This data is expected to be higher than the previous revision of 18.7k to 22.3k. Average earnings are expected to fall 5.2% from 5.6%. And the unemployment rate is predicted to rise to 4.5% from the previous 4.4%. Investors will also be looking at BOE Governor Bailey's speech in a casual chat at the Foreign Bankers Association in Amsterdam.

While the US will release CPI data, which is forecasted to see core CPI rise by 0.3% from 0.1% previously, monthly CPI is predicted to rise by 0.3% from -0.1%, and annual CPI is predicted to be 2.4% same as previously revised.

Gold prices edge up as US inflation eases

Yesterday, gold prices drew a small-bodied bullish candle with shadows on the top and bottom of the candle. Prices formed a high of 3265, a low of 3216, and a close of 3249. Gold prices are near the lower band, which was a support level in early May.

A weaker-than-expected US inflation report and a trade tariff deal between China and the US could keep gold prices below the $3,300 level. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after falling 0.1 percent in March in the US. Over the past 12 months, the all-goods index has increased by 2.3 percent before seasonal adjustments.

The Fed is expected to remain cautious despite falling inflation, with analysts warning that inflation could rise as tariffs gradually push up prices. According to the CME Group’s Fedwatch tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged at its June 18 Fed meeting is 91.8%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is only 8.2%.

Recent US-China trade tariff talks that have reached some points of agreement have increased risk appetite and sent bullion prices lower. However, geopolitical risks and the latest developments in tariff policy could push gold in either direction.

Meanwhile, the World Gold Council reports that China added 2 tonnes to its gold reserves in April. The National Bank of Poland increased by 12 tonnes in April to 509 tonnes, while the Czech National Bank increased its reserves by 2.5 tonnes in April. The adoption of gold by central banks could maintain the value of gold in the long term.

This week, analysts will look to the US PPI data to be released on Thursday, which could be a trigger for the USD value, which is often negatively correlated to gold.

Australia's unemployment rate is expected to be stable, AUD/USD moves in the range

The AUDUSD pair during this week's trading moved within a range of the Bollinger band, the price was in the range of 0.63436 - 0.65146. Yesterday, AUDUSD drew a bearish candle with a shorter body than the previous one, and there was a shadow on the top of the candle. The price formed a high of 0.65009, a low of 0.64224, and a close of 0.64274.

The US dollar is still struggling to regain its position amid the Trump administration and its controversies. The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar against six major currencies, was at 101.040, having fallen to 100.271. The DXY is now above the 20 EMA, below the 50 EMA, with the RSI pointing to the 51 level.

US inflation data on Tuesday showed that core CPI fell 0.2% from the expected 0.3%, from the previously revised 0.1%. Month-on-month CPI was 0.2% from the expected 0.3% and the previous revision of -0.1%. And year-on-year CPI fell by 2.3% from the expected 2.4% and the previous revision of 2.4%. Weak inflation had brought the dollar index up to 101.977, along with the tariff agreement with China with a 90-day delay.

Meanwhile, the Australian Wage Price Index (WPI) rose to 0.9% in the quarter from the forecast 0.8% and the previous revision of 0.7%. The WPI measures changes in the price of labor, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labor force, hours worked, or employee characteristics.

Today, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release its monthly employment report for April, which is expected to see Australia add 20k new jobs, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4.1%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on April 1, leaving the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.10%. RBA officials noted that labor market conditions remain tight. The RBA will meet again on May 20, where it will announce the Cash Rate, which is expected to remain on its previous policy path.

Elsewhere in the US today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will also release PPI data, which is expected to see Core PPI rise 0.3% from -0.1%, PPI MoM is expected to be 0.2% from -0.4%. Core Retail Sales are expected to fall 0.3% this month from 0.5%. Meanwhile, unemployment claims are expected to rise to 229k from 228k.

USD/CNH steady amid slowdown due to trade war

Amid the trade war with the United States, the USDCNH pair is moving steadily between the middle and lower band lines. On Friday, the USDCNH price drew a small-bodied bullish candle and short wicks on the top and bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 7.2134, a low of 7.1948, and a close of 7.2073.

Despite experiencing an economic slowdown due to challenges such as the trade war with the United States and the debt crisis, China is still a key player in the global economy. China has been the world's second-largest economy by nominal GDP since 2010 and even surpassed the European Union economy in 2021.

The trade war with the US is an external challenge for China that affects Chinese exports to the United States. Several e-commerce giants such as Tencent, Douyin, and JD.com have been affected by President Trump's tariffs and have shifted their products to the domestic market.

China's Vice Minister of Commerce Sheng Qiuping in a statement last month, described China's vast domestic market as an important buffer for exporters in the face of external shocks, while urging local authorities to coordinate efforts to stabilize exports and boost consumption.

Another challenge facing China is the debt crisis, especially at the local government level, driven by fiscal deficits and rising debt burdens. On the other hand, the potential for deflation due to industrial overcapacity is another concern.

In response to these challenges, China is trying to address economic challenges by encouraging domestic consumption, increasing innovation, and investing in infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the United States is also facing economic challenges due to the impact of the trade war and fears of a recession. Recently, Moody's downgraded the United States' credit rating from AAA to AA1 on May 17, 2025. This downgrade came after other credit rating agencies, Fitch and S&P Global Ratings, also downgraded the US. The downgrade was caused by several factors, including increasing US government debt and rising interest costs. The downgrade could have an impact on borrowing costs and investor confidence in the US economy.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies,s moved below the 50 EMA slightly down -0.2% at 100.746 from 100.905 today at the time of writing.

Today China will release economic data, the National Bureau of Statistics of China will report retail sales which are forecast to rise 6.0% from the previous 5.9%, Industrial Production is forecast to fall 5.7% from the previous 7.7%, and the Unemployment Rate is forecast to be 5.2% the same as the previous revision.

Australian dollar rises amid negative US dollar sentiment ahead of the RBA cash rate decision

AUDUSD yesterday drew a long-bodied bullish candle with a slight shadow on the top of the candle. The price rose to form a low of 0.63843, a high of 0.64650, and a close of 0.64564.

The Australian dollar gained support from the weakening US dollar after the report of the US credit rating downgrade by Moody's. Moody's downgraded the US rating from 'AAA' to 'Aa1', as successive US administrations have failed to reverse the ballooning deficit and interest costs.

In its projections, Moody's estimated that the ratio of the budget deficit to the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will increase from 6.4% in 2024 to almost 9% in 2035.

This increase was mainly triggered by soaring interest payments on debt, increasing social security spending, and relatively stagnant state revenue projections. On the other hand, the ratio of government debt to GDP is also projected to increase sharply, from 98% this year to around 134% in 2035.

The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six other major currencies, fell from a high of 100.905 to a low of 100.064, crossing the EMA 20 from the upside.

The weakening USD supported the strengthening of the Australian dollar and several other assets, including gold and silver.

Today, the RBA will announce interest rates, it is estimated that the RBA will cut interest rates from 4.10% to 3.85%. Several important factors in the forecast of interest rate cuts are core CPI, which is considered a more reliable indicator of inflation trends than general inflation, and in the first quarter fell to 2.9% yoy.

On the other hand, China, which is Australia's trading partner, showed mixed data. Industrial Production fell to 6.1% from 7.7% but beat market estimates of 5.5%. Retail sales fell to 5.1%, down from 5.9% and below market estimates of 5.9%.

Gold prices rise as Moody's downgrades US credit rating

Gold prices surged on Tuesday, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle with a slight shadow at the bottom of the candle. Gold prices formed a high of 3295, a low of 3204, and a close of 3289.

The increase in gold prices was triggered by several supporting factors, such as the downgrade of the US credit rating. Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA1 last Friday, dampening risk sentiment and increasing demand for Gold.

Several central banks, such as the PBoC and RBA, have cut interest rates, also contributing to the value of gold, which is a safe-haven asset that does not provide a yield.

The downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody's has implications for all financial markets. After the announcement, US government bond yields rose, especially in medium and long-term tenors. For example, the 10-year bond yield rose from around 4.1% to almost 4.5%. The increase in treasury yields also indicates that the US government must pay higher interest rates to issue new debt. On the other hand, safe-haven assets are more sought after by investors.

Moody's cited several key factors driving this decision, including: Large and increasing fiscal deficits, soaring national debt burdens, swelling interest costs on debt, and repeated failures in fiscal reforms.

The US dollar came under selling pressure amid renewed concerns about US President Donald Trump's protectionist measures and the government's runaway debt. The concerns come ahead of Trump's tax law. Analysts say the law could add between $3 trillion and $5 trillion to the debt. The dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.33% to 100.009 from 100.580 on Tuesday, extending earlier losses.

While there was no fresh news on US-China talks, the US is still in trade talks with other trading partners. Investors' focus is on negotiations with Japan as tensions between the two countries escalate amid US demands.

Investors will also be focusing on the UK inflation report today, which is expected to rise to 3.3% from a previously revised 2.6%. Higher inflation could support gold as a safe-haven asset that has proven to be more resilient to inflation.

Canadian dollar slightly weaker ahead of retail sales data

USDCAD on Thursday trading drew a small-bodied bullish candle with a slight shadow on the top candle, reflecting low volatility. The price formed a high of 1.38888 low of 1.38459, and closed at 1.38580. The preceding candle drew a bearish cross over the middle band line from the upper side.

The US dollar is still trading under pressure from broad macro concerns, including high fiscal deficits, interest rates that remain high for a long period of time, and rising geopolitical tensions. The US dollar has experienced a decline in confidence levels and has driven a shift with investors seeking diversification of other currencies and safe-haven assets.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six major currencies, is still showing a downtrend movement below the EMA 20. However, on Thursday, the DXY rose slightly, closing with a bullish candle with a high of 100.118 low of 99.440 closing at 99.934. The RSI level shows a value of 44 with a curved channel to the upper side, indicating an increasing signal below the bearish sentiment level.

The latest US economic data showed strong manufacturing and services PMI figures. Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 from 50.2, and services PMI also rose to 52.3 from 50.8, signaling continued activity in key sectors.

US Unemployment Claims also fell to 227K from 229K, lower than the 230K expected. Lower readings provide important insights into the health of the economy, as consumer spending is highly correlated with labor market conditions. Unemployment is also a key consideration for those who control the country’s monetary policy.

Despite the good news, Existing Home Sales fell to 4.00M from 4.02M, lower than the 5.15M expected. The data raises some concerns about the sustainability of US growth, especially in a sector that is traditionally important to wealth and consumer sentiment.

On the other hand, the Canadian economy is facing challenges. The Industrial Product Price Index (PPI) for April fell 0.8% MoM, down from a 0.5% increase in March, and below expectations of -0.5%. This makes the market price in the possibility of a Bank of Canada interest rate cut. Today, investors will be waiting for BOC Governor Macklem to speak in a press conference at the G7 meetings in Banff to get subtle clues on the Canadian economic outlook.

In addition, investors are also waiting for the release of Canadian core retail sales data, which is expected to fall -0.1% from the previous 0.5%. Retail sales MoM is expected to rise 0.6% from the previous -0.4% according to Forexfactory. Meanwhile, the US will release New Home Sales data, which is expected to fall by 694k from the previous 724k.

Gold prices rise on US debt concerns, Bitcoin falls at the same time

Gold prices on Friday recorded an impressive increase after a sharp decline in mid-May. The increase in gold prices was driven by various factors, including increasing investor concerns about the sustainability of US debt after Moody's downgraded the US credit rating due to the failure of the Trump administration to fix fiscal problems. The rating agency announced that the US credit rating was downgraded to 'AA1' from 'AAA'. Gold prices on Friday rose, drawing a long-bodied bullish candle that engulfed the previous candle. The price formed a high of 3365 low of 3287, and closed at 3357.

In contrast to the movement of Bitcoin prices. This crypto asset moved down from its previous high after the price reached $111k; the price of Bitcoin is now around the $107k level. Although the price fell yesterday, in the long term, the Bitcoin trend still has the potential to be bullish. This is read from the 200 MA line, which draws an ascending channel far below the current price.

Another factor that drives gold is geopolitical risk. The lack of progress in Ukraine-Russia talks and growing fears of a deepening conflict in the Middle East amid reports of Israel escalating attacks on Gaza and planning attacks on nuclear facilities in Iran have allowed the precious metal to benefit from risk aversion.

The US trade war with partner countries is also in the investor's attention. Trump warned of a 50% tariff on EU imports, escalating the trade war and boosting demand for safe havens. Trump said that discussions with the EU were "no progress" while threatening to impose 50% tariffs on EU imports on June 1. Meanwhile, the latest development from the Trump administration was the passage of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' by the US House of Representatives, which would add almost $4 trillion to the US debt limit.

This week, investors will focus on several economic agendas. The US will feature data on Durable Goods Orders for April on Tuesday. Next, the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of its May policy meeting on Wednesday. And on Friday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish data on the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

On the other hand, the dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the USD against six other major currencies, is still under pressure. The DXY is now at 99.047, down from a high of 99.940. DXY is in a downtrend below EMA 20.

Today, US and UK bank holidays may affect trading volumes in the spot forex market. UK banks will be closed in observance of the Spring Bank Holiday. US banks will be closed in observance of Memorial Day.