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Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb

  • #601
  • May 15, 2025 2:11am May 15, 2025 2:11am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Spike to widen the top and bottom of Range 3? Ok. Very Clever!
Hi,
I was wandering why did you go long. I’m trying to fully understand the PVSRA, so I’m checking your posts and trying to figure out your entry analysis.
Nice thread, keep up the good work!
  • #602
  • May 15, 2025 3:27am May 15, 2025 3:27am
Well, after the new day began, all pairs reversed direction. Total loss: -1%. 2 break-even trades (include comission, spreads, and swap). 1R trade still the best option.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #603
  • May 15, 2025 8:31am May 15, 2025 8:31am
Special Case EUR/USD Today
Fire ▄︻デ══━一 Short
Range 3

There have been many attempts to push EUR/USD down since yesterday, but during the Asia and London sessions the fractals that formed were always broken. Will it succeed in this New York session? Like yesterday some succeed. However, the pattern clearly indicates a move southward. It could still end up broken.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.iM15-15052025-1.png Size: 28 KB
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  • #604
  • Edited 10:04am May 15, 2025 9:46am | Edited 10:04am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Special Case EUR/USD Today Fire ▄︻デ══━一 Short Range 3 There have been many attempts to push EUR/USD down since yesterday, but during the Asia and London sessions the fractals that formed were always broken. Will it succeed in this New York session? Like yesterday some succeed. However, the pattern clearly indicates a move southward. It could still end up broken. {image}
SL at BE+
This might not work
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #605
  • Edited 11:17am May 15, 2025 10:40am | Edited 11:17am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} SL at BE+ This might not work {image}
EU Range still 58 from 102.
If today’s range is normal, hopefully there’ll be a bit more downward price movement before the day is over, and dont hit BE+. Lol

Move TP to 1.1130-0
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.iM15-15052025-4.png Size: 29 KB
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  • #606
  • May 15, 2025 12:40pm May 15, 2025 12:40pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} EU Range still 58 from 102. If today’s range is normal, hopefully there’ll be a bit more downward price movement before the day is over, and dont hit BE+. Lol Move TP to 1.1130-0 {image} {image}
Come on, come on, come on EU
Red Climax Sell please...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #607
  • May 15, 2025 12:49pm May 15, 2025 12:49pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Come on, come on, come on EU Red Climax Sell please... {image}
Exit. Closed at 1.01%
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #608
  • Edited 6:41am May 16, 2025 6:05am | Edited 6:41am
Fire ▄︻デ══━一
Range 2
Long USD/JPY 1 unit 0.5% 57 pips, TP 2R
Will close 15 minute before red news
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15-16052025-1.png Size: 27 KB
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  • #609
  • May 16, 2025 6:40am May 16, 2025 6:40am
Fire ▄︻デ══━一
Range 2
Short EUR/AUD 1 unit 0.5% 54 pips, TP 2R
Will close 15 minute before red news
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.iM15-16052025-1.png Size: 27 KB
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  • #610
  • May 16, 2025 6:52am May 16, 2025 6:52am
Adjust TP both trades
USD/JPY and EUR/AUD to RR1
2 hours 9 minutes before red news
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.iM15-16052025-2.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15-16052025-2.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.iM15-16052025-3.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15-16052025-3.png Size: 26 KB
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  • #611
  • May 16, 2025 8:49am May 16, 2025 8:49am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Adjust TP both trades USD/JPY and EUR/AUD to RR1 2 hours 9 minutes before red news {image} {image} {image} {image}
Closed both 13 minutes before red news
Loss total -0.20%
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.iM15-16052025-4.png Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15-16052025-4.png Size: 24 KB
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  • #612
  • May 16, 2025 9:29am May 16, 2025 9:29am
Fire ▄︻デ══━一
Range 3
After Red News
Long USD/JPY 1 unit 0.5%, 57 pips, TP 2R
Short EUR/CAD 1 unit 0.5%, 38 pips, TP 2R
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD.iM15-16052025-Range3-1.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15-16052025-Range3-1.png Size: 28 KB
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  • #613
  • May 16, 2025 4:06pm May 16, 2025 4:06pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
Fire ▄︻デ══━一 Range 3 After Red News Long USD/JPY 1 unit 0.5%, 57 pips, TP 2R Short EUR/CAD 1 unit 0.5%, 38 pips, TP 2R {image} {image}
Closed EUR/CAD + USD/JPY
Total Gain +0.99%

Leave Gold as it is, almost hit SL (-1.12%)

Overall, it was a not-so-good week—many losses on Gold; sometimes it works, sometimes it’s shit—mainly because entries weren’t close to the EMA (Dragon) and because I entered before the London Open based on mind bias rather than the system. This needs to be corrected next week. Then, all trades still open the following day must be stopped if there’s an opposing signal after the London Open.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15-1.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD.iM15-17052025-1.png Size: 27 KB
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  • #614
  • Edited 9:54am May 17, 2025 4:03am | Edited 9:54am
Some thought today:
If you seek the real truth, you will not obtain it; however, you can discern it through many clues.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post15249056

Whistleblower mission —to warn traders about the huge risks of forex trading in the random financial world—

So I’d rather do prop‑firm “gaming” trading than deposit $1,000 into a real account. As we know, what can you really earn each month with a $1,000 or even $10,000 live account, unless you push yourself into taking crazy risks of more than 3% per position (well above the Kelly Criterion’s recommendation for optimal leverage in forex). You will keep losing over and over before you show your first winning account or any part of your past track record.

With a prop‑firm gaming account, you can practice discipline and patience and learn to scale risk: if you hit a –6% drawdown, the account is wiped. Although it only costs $100, you get to trade a $25K account and above until $100k (normal practice). Which institution or trader here would show off a $25K‑plus account unless they actually have affiliate funds with the broker or are part of some trader investment group? Didn’t all traders agree that modern risk norms scientifically follow the Kelly Criterion for per‑trade risk? And isn’t the Turtle Trading method still regarded as sound wisdom? What have the retail and institutional trading industries been doing for decades that the Kelly Criterion isn’t taught as the basis for risk-taking in trading? A joke? Or are they just cheerleaders? (Actually, if they answer that the absorbing barrier is not the same for all institutions or individuals, I will remain okay).

So I don’t consider all psychological “pep talks” to be good advice—only a small percentage truly matters, namely patience and discipline, and you can create it and recreate it in the real world, not as poison to the mind or a figment of your imagination. If you’re not careful in filtering what you hear, what you see, what you think, you’ll end up an advocate for the devil, not part of the noble guardian angel.
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  • #615
  • May 17, 2025 4:25am May 17, 2025 4:25am
Quoting Malin85
{quote} Hi, I was wandering why did you go long. I’m trying to fully understand the PVSRA, so I’m checking your posts and trying to figure out your entry analysis. Nice thread, keep up the good work!
Wellcome Bro Malin. All is here to learn, you can read all post or here some latest summary of journey : https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post15229329

Good Luck!
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  • #616
  • Edited May 18, 2025 7:50am May 17, 2025 9:27am | Edited May 18, 2025 7:50am
Slightly modify today's trading system rules
17/05/2025 - PVSRA TVT 1/3 aDtr 21 – Daily Ranger

Rules of 7
1. Pair Selection: Scan all 28 pairs using aDtr 21 Days. A broader range, ≥ 99 pips, might be a better choice for trading pairs as it provides more room for SL (risk).

2. Optimal Maximum Leverage for Forex based on Kelly Criterion: 3% per position (10:1). However, We use a Kelly Criterion scale target, percentage Daily Profit Target with TP/SL ratio 1:1 (like a Sniper) - based on 1/3 aDtr 21. Stop Loss is mandatory. Consider put SL to BE +1 after 1/3 TP gain (33%).
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post15183237
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15206274
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15217344
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post15221692

3. Timing Entry: Enter better after London Open in Range 2. Consider closing all trades opened since the previous London Open if there is a signal in the opposite direction today.

4. Key Entry: The Blue Dragon serves as a trading direction guide.
a. Entry Long, Price is above The Blue Dragon, and The Blue Dragon forms a Convex curve. The entry position should not be too far from it.
b. Entry Short, Price is below The Blue Dragon, and the The Blue Dragon forms a Concave curve. The entry position should not be too far from it.

5. Key Levels, Volumes & Fractals: Pay attention to S/R Levels, to Consolidation above or below Whole/Half Levels, to High Volume activities and It’s Color (Climax Buy or Climax Sell, Raising Buy or Raising Sell), and to Patterns (Fractals) that are generally formed.

6. No trade during Red News events. Trade after it. Consider closing all open trades 15 minutes before red news.

7. Patience and Discipline like an EA (Robot).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15-14052025-4.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 7.4.1-Appl-2nd-Der-Illustr-1.png Size: 25 KB
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  • #617
  • May 18, 2025 5:05pm May 18, 2025 5:05pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Closed EUR/CAD + USD/JPY Total Gain +0.99% Leave Gold as it is, almost hit SL (-1.12%) Overall, it was a not-so-good week—many losses on Gold; sometimes it works, sometimes it’s shit—mainly because entries weren’t close to the EMA (Dragon) and because I entered before the London Open based on mind bias rather than the system. This needs to be corrected next week. Then, all trades still open the following day must be stopped if there’s an opposing signal after the London Open. {image} {image} {image}
Gold Loss -1.29% at opening
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #618
  • May 18, 2025 5:08pm May 18, 2025 5:08pm
aDtr 21 Today
14 pairs
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aDtr 21 19052025.png Size: 8 KB
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  • #619
  • May 19, 2025 9:38am May 19, 2025 9:38am
Fire ▄︻デ══━一
Range 3
Long USD/JPY
SL 1 unit 0.5%, 56 pips
TP 2 unit 0.5%, 112 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #620
  • May 19, 2025 12:33pm May 19, 2025 12:33pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
Fire ▄︻デ══━一 Range 3 Long USD/JPY SL 1 unit 0.5%, 56 pips TP 2 unit 0.5%, 112 pips {image}
Adjust TP to 1R
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