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The PriceBob Strategy

  • #781
  • Edited May 17, 2025 12:03am May 16, 2025 8:48pm | Edited May 17, 2025 12:03am
Quoting BataviaTrade
Today trades DAX: 2x short, both losses JPN225: tba {image}
Hi BT,
Please accept this reply not as a dig at you, it is my view and only posted as a constructive alternative to entry trades.

This strategy is flawed as like all similar trading systems that produce signals to sell lows and buy highs.
You are not at fault it is just the way the market plays its game.
Traders are manipulated into believing that the market is showing them the way and they jump in.
You will never make money on a consistent basis trading this way.
You are entering your trade at an extreme.
Imagine you are stretching an elastic band to it's limit, this is where you are placing your trade, yet you are expecting the elastic band to stretch further to your target. (Not going to happen, never will) well maybe you will get lucky every now and then.
By trading the extremes / stretched elastic band, you are entering a trade at the highest risk point.
You need to enter trades when the elastic band is relaxed.
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The chart shows the stretched elastic band and the relaxed elastic band. Coincidentally they will correlate the way you are felling when placing the trade. You will be under duress or relaxed. The volume and the indicator on your chart will show you nothing about the trade you just entered, in fact what use were they?
If an indicator can give you a positive signal and a failing signal why would anyone use them?
What is needed here is to learn to observe price / market behavior.
Enter trades when the elastic band / price is relaxed.
At the extreme your SL will be at it's maximum and your target at its minimum, then take your win rate into consideration and you have a flawed / weak trading system.
Sorry if this offends anyone but I tell it like it is.

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I will start a new thread and post a simple system that I use for the open that will get you in at a better price. Very basic.
Your trade order needs to be in the right place at the right time.
  • #782
  • May 16, 2025 9:38pm May 16, 2025 9:38pm
Quoting turnip15
On another note. Just found a way to play with charts on my iMac via Ninja web trader. Might dump cfd's and go the futures route? {image}
Welcome to the dark side

Be warned that Future brokers have a saying. "we just like to keep our clients nice and happy short term because it's only a matter of time before they destroy their equity". Odds are higher you will blow your account trading Future Markets than they are from trading with CFD's"

Good Luck, did I say good luck.

PS. Motivewave on iMac is just delicious
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #783
  • May 17, 2025 3:17am May 17, 2025 3:17am
Quoting turnip15
The SP500 Mebob , better today bat? {image}
Nice. What are your entry rules?
  • #784
  • Edited 4:31am May 17, 2025 3:24am | Edited 4:31am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} There will be days when variance causes our set ups to fall on the wrong side of probability. As therumpledone would say, "That's trading!" Do we need to know what's going to happen next to make money trading? As Mark Douglas would say, "No!" Your consistency to the plan is your strength, BT. In my opinion, what you've shared here is one of the best demonstrations of the trader's mindset I've seen here at FF.
Hi Vidvad, thank you for your encouraging words! Yes, I agree. This system fits my style I guess. A fixed bar, a small set of rules, wait for the criteria to be met, and pull the trigger. Yes, there will be losses to digest, but that’s to keep me humble and keeps my feet on the ground I guess. As long as the numbers play out positive in the long run, I suppose this system has that ‘edge’ others like talking about.

Have a good weekend!

BT
  • #785
  • May 17, 2025 4:10am May 17, 2025 4:10am
Quoting BataviaTrade
Today trades DAX: 2x short, both losses JPN225: tba {image}
I'm curious if the Big$ holding things in a sideways channel coming into trillions in US options expirations is why things were "off" for you even though you were trading the DAX and not US.
  • #786
  • May 17, 2025 4:30am May 17, 2025 4:30am
Quoting BataviaTrade
{quote} Nice. What are your entry rules?
break of first bar outside kebob channel
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #787
  • May 17, 2025 4:32am May 17, 2025 4:32am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Welcome to the dark side Be warned that Future brokers have a saying. "we just like to keep our clients nice and happy short term because it's only a matter of time before they destroy their equity". Odds are higher you will blow your account trading Future Markets than they are from trading with CFD's" Good Luck, did I say good luck. PS. Motivewave on iMac is just delicious
Why? Many seem to think Futures are the honest guy in trading?
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #788
  • May 17, 2025 6:08am May 17, 2025 6:08am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Why? Many seem to think Futures are the honest guy in trading?
They are the most honest guys in town so NO issues there however the problem is the high leverage and low margin requirements to trade Future Contracts.
For example you only need about $3,000 to trade Gold Futures single contracts (GCEM25) but if you when long here and didn't have a stop in the below chart, your'e account is blown up in only 40 minutes. Even if you open a $500 account and trade Gold Micro's - account is blown.

It would only take 6-8 losing trades to blow your account so therefore you need a larger account to survive Future's trading, and we know most retail traders only deposit somewhere between 1 to 2K on average which is just asking for the markets to clean out your account.

Cheers
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #789
  • May 17, 2025 6:53am May 17, 2025 6:53am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} break of first bar outside kebob channel
So I suppose you took this trade too ?

Image:
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  • #790
  • May 17, 2025 7:31am May 17, 2025 7:31am
Quoting CashBox
{quote} I'm curious if the Big$ holding things in a sideways channel coming into trillions in US options expirations is why things were "off" for you even though you were trading the DAX and not US.
Interesting thought. I just noticed options expired last Friday, never thought this could possibly play a role. I will have a look in 4 weeks from now, thanks for mentioning it.

BT
  • #791
  • May 17, 2025 8:08am May 17, 2025 8:08am
Quoting RickM
{quote} They are the most honest guys in town so NO issues there however the problem is the high leverage and low margin requirements to trade Future Contracts. For example you only need about $3,000 to trade Gold Futures single contracts (GCEM25) but if you when long here and didn't have a stop in the below chart, your'e account is blown up in only 40 minutes. Even if you open a $500 account and trade Gold Micro's - account is blown. It would only take 6-8 losing trades to blow your account so therefore you need a larger account to survive Future's...
Understood. I assumed most would have a lot more than the minimum required to trade the Micro SP500 for example. Underfunding is just asking for problems such as psychological and many other sins of poor trading approaches.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #792
  • May 18, 2025 4:01pm May 18, 2025 4:01pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} There will be days when variance causes our set ups to fall on the wrong side of probability. As therumpledone would say, "That's trading!" Do we need to know what's going to happen next to make money trading? As Mark Douglas would say, "No!" Your consistency to the plan is your strength, BT. In my opinion, what you've shared here is one of the best demonstrations of the trader's mindset I've seen here at FF.
I have to agree VidVad ,,,, Batavia has done an excellent job...Consistent ! 2 losses,,, SO WHAT lol... I don't want to disrespect anyone here..
But to see someone come in and say NO NO NO its all wrong.. doesn't work,,flawed,,never make money.. I have to laugh,,, Thats BULLSHIT.

Thats whats wrong with retail traders ... a few losses and their down the road looking for next best method... that's just bullshit.

I would encourage traders with a lick of common sense go join Tom Hougaards telegram channel... Tom uses a number of time-based fixed
bar methods...and he KILLS it... I believe the one cant recall the name hasn't had a loss in several years...(news based one) just had the first loss
last week or so.

Lets take the Opening Range trade... Did you know the Opening Range is determined daily by the CME ? Its in their daily information bulletins.

A fixed timeframe Opening range that traders have made a living off the last 50 years trading the ES as a starter.
A simple high and low and trading the break of either side.. Should I tell them its flawed..never make money like that.
Just because they use an indicator ! I really scratch my head on that one...

Here's an oldtimers webpage old pit trader who uses the 30 second Opening range every day and has made millions upon millions.
He predominantly trades off the DOM at ORH and ORL.. Yes he does use charts too ...

https://thepaxgroup.org/the-opening-range/

In fact here you go from his webpage.

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Yep those are the Original Opening Range times.... Lets take a look at some 30 second charts of the ES with the 30 second OR plotted.
These are just random charts...with my normal 200sma and VWAP on them,, one can use them or one can not....you can be successful
either way....

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I would say their was some pretty darn good trades off the 30sec OR....

Batavia is doing it right....executing consistently the same over and over... discovering finding edge thru consistent execution.. A+

To errently say what Island did is just not correct..... While I agree with some things said the gist of it is just pure bullshit.
Sorry to ruffle feathers if I do...

THe only thing that is flawed is the limited thinking or lack of knowledge perhaps.... as I said above go tell Hougaard or Pax a fixed
range method with an indicator does not work...

My apologies if I offended anyone but I have to call out the only thing that is flawed and that was Island's ill informed reply.

Cheers
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #793
  • May 18, 2025 4:33pm May 18, 2025 4:33pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} I have to agree VidVad ,,,, Batavia has done an excellent job...Consistent ! 2 losses,,, SO WHAT lol... I don't want to disrespect anyone here.. But to see someone come in and say NO NO NO its all wrong.. doesn't work,,flawed,,never make money.. I have to laugh,,, Thats BULLSHIT.
Since November I've been trading some form of fixed bar entries. My profits since November 2024 through the end of March 2025 are greater than my total profits from the prior 15 years. But this is FF and there is always going to be someone who, no matter how nice they are, simply must come along and show you why you're doing it all wrong lol. I've not traded but a spoonful of times since the end of March because of my responsibilities to my 9 to 5. But when I am trading, I'm trading fixed bars with reversal bars, long only US indices and life is good.

Opening Range Breaks are so potent and profitable that after he published his book on how he trades them, Toby Crabel went on a buying spree to buy up every copy he could get his hands on to limit its exposure.

The other method I have used to great effect is what I call reversal bars following Al Brooks's definition of them: Any bar that makes a higher high than the previous bar in a downtrend, or a lower low than the previous bar in an uptrend is a reversal bar. It doesn't have to be "pin bar," though it may be. It doesn't have to be an "engulfing bar," though it may be. A reversal bar is simply the first bar that makes a higher high than the previous bar after a series of bars makes lower highs, or the first bar that makes a lower low after a series of bars making higher lows. The best use for reversal bars for me is to use them in conjunction with a long only ES or NQ fixed bar method. I'll leave the discovery of the particulars up to the individual trader(s) who may be inspired to look further into the fixed bar method.

Nothing fancy, nothing sexy, no indicators needed other than ohlc bars.

This thread started, I thought, as an exploration of the mebob after I rediscovered it (and Tom Hougaard's mention of it). I quickly realized, however, that it was really about me sharing what has worked so well for me: Using fixed bars to define set ups and how this methodolgy actually cures (almost) all trading. Fixed bar methods are simply the best method one can use to complete Mark Douglas's exercise from Trading in the Zone. And once you can complete the exercise without deviating from the method, over-sizing, and trading off plan, then you should be able to adopt any system of method that has a positive edge and trade it flawlessly.

My "secret sauce" is in the money management. I am convinced that "bad risk reward" is best. The minimum R:R should be a .618 profit to loss ratio, and if you can get close to 1:1 with a 70%+ win rate then you really do have something special. Fixed bars get you in the market at a time that sheds the emotional weight of having to "make a decision." Money management fixes your risk, and if you are conservative with your take profit, you're win rate will be very high and your profits will pile up over time.

Batavia Trade had done well and I hope he is able to shrug off the detractors. There will always be instances of any edge that fall on the wrong side of probability. Most of us then chase our tails down various rabbit holes trying to outsmart probability and find a way to "filter out the losing trades." Can't be done.

Consistency is your strength.

The core of this thread is using fixed bars to build our strength, which is built through consistency.

Most here don't realize it, but this is the last systems thread anyone really needs.

Someday I'll find the time and the words to demonstrate exactly what I Mean by that. But Batavia has demonstrated thus far that he does indeed get it, and I know a few others, such as yourself, get it as well, blue.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #794
  • May 18, 2025 4:49pm May 18, 2025 4:49pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} Since November I've been trading some form of fixed bar entries. My profits since November 2024 through the end of March 2025 are greater than my total profits from the prior 15 years. But this is FF and there is always going to be someone who, no matter how nice they are, simply must come along and show you why you're doing it all wrong lol. I've not traded but a spoonful of times since the end of March because of my responsibilities to my 9 to 5. But when I am trading, I'm trading fixed bars with reversal bars, long only US indices and...

Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #795
  • May 18, 2025 7:07pm May 18, 2025 7:07pm
I posted this back in late November of last year (2024) to my journal. I said that if I had to choose one chart template for the rest of my career and stick to just one it would be what you will see in that post.
Call me Vidvad - I day trade futures | Page 22 | Forex Factory

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Here is my current NQ template:

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And here is the template I referred to back in November 29, 2024 but showing the exact same data as the above chart:
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The most significant change from then today is simply the colors, which I have changed so as to be easier on my eyes. Also, I no longer plot the 8:00 AM to 8:15 bar as I will not be trading premarket any longer (all times are NYC or USA Eastern). If I were to resume trading premarket, I'd add that highlight back to the template.

I no longer plot the 11:00 to 11:15 AM Eastern bar as my "quitting time" bar as my current plan would almost never see me still trading that late in the day.

During the period of increased volatility, I did for a time switch to a 30 minute bar from a 15 minute bar. I am back to the M15, for now. I have now progressed with my money management to the point that I will likely not ever have to change from the M15 again, no matter what happens to volatility. I do, however, reserve the right to change the bar duration if I find it necessary in order to remain profitable.

I have experimented with various fixed price bars on the ES as well.

But I still feel today as I felt in November two weeks into my "roulette epiphany": If I had to choose just one chart template and only that template for the rest of my trading career (and I hope the day I die they find me slumped over at my desktop with my hand on my mouse and my index fingers on the "buy" button" lol) it would be this template.

It isn't sexy, it comes with no squiggly lines and you don't need to decide whether a bar is a "thrust" bar of anything of the sort, you don't need to apply Heiken Ashi or renko, you don't need volume or volume profile and you need not refer to arbitrary fictions such as "fair value gaps" and "liquidity grabs" (I'm old enough to remember when all of us now old timers called liquidity grabs "2B's" following Trader Vic lol).

By no means do I mean to put down anything that anyone else uses to trade as I myself have been through it all. My fondest memories of FF are those of trading with rockypoint using his HA renko methods with my own twists. I have immense respect for LauraT's roadmap. Moodybot's Flying Dutchman thread is a wonderful source of trading wisdom and market observations. TimeTells is a gift and too few pay attention to him as he just quietly goes about doing his same simple strategy day after day, week after week, and month after month. I really must stop trying to name the FF'ers who've contributed to my journey over the years as I would 100% leave too many deserving of mention out. My good friends, Ed777 and JVT, bluesteele and turnip. Even my once arch nemesis, driven, has provided me with invaluable pieces to solving my own version of this puzzle we call trading.

I'm not here to compete. I'm here for the sake of my craft, which is trading. I've made tremendous progress, especially during the last 7 months. I believe I placed my first day trade around 2005. SO it took me 20 years to get to this point. It could have been done in 2. I spent too much time chasing rabbits and not enough time working on my craft, which is trading. And the singular skill that must be mastered if one is to progress to journeyman in this craft, is self-knowledge, self-discovery, and self-control. Too many years surfing various squiggly lines and not enough time looking at why I too often engaged in self-destructive trading behaviors.

Friends, you don't need another thread of squiggly lines. Leave the rabbit holes. They are the Plato's Cave of the trading world. Come up into the sunlight of self-knowledge and self-control and self-discipline. Work on yourselves, and this trading business will quickly sort itself out for you. This is why this is the very last systems thread you will ever need. Because if you commit to some form of trading plan based on some fixed bar methodology, you will fix yourself and figure it out. If you put forth the effort and you find trouble, reach out to us here in this thread. I'll help. Blue will help. Batavia will help. Those of us who see will help. Ignore those who post here to entice you with shiny objects that they'll throw into the next rabbit hole and then order you to "Fetch!"

Stay the course.

I feel I'm at the point where I no longer "need" FF or any trading forum, book, channel, or whatever. I don't mean I have nothing left to learn. I mean I've made it. Anything I add to what I'm doing will be a refinement of my method. I need no further trips down the rabbit holes. I came here to learn. I stay here to help.

I will end with this simple summary of what I now know to be true about what you need to know in order to become a consistently profitable trader: If you can tell time, and if you can count, i.e. if you know that 4 is greater than 3 and less than 5, then you can learn how to trade profitably.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #796
  • May 18, 2025 7:22pm May 18, 2025 7:22pm
Quoting vidvad
I posted this back in late November of last year (2024) to my journal. I said that if I had to choose one chart template for the rest of my career and stick to just one it would be what you will see in that post. Call me Vidvad - I day trade futures | Page 22 | Forex Factory {image} Here is my current NQ template: {image} And here is the template I referred to back in November 29, 2024 but showing the exact same data as the above chart: {image} The most significant...

Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #797
  • May 18, 2025 7:45pm May 18, 2025 7:45pm
Quoting vidvad
I posted this back in late November of last year (2024) to my journal. I said that if I had to choose one chart template for the rest of my career and stick to just one it would be what you will see in that post. Call me Vidvad - I day trade futures | Page 22 | Forex Factory {image} Here is my current NQ template: {image} And here is the template I referred to back in November 29, 2024 but showing the exact same data as the above chart: {image} The most significant...
I must add....
Kudos to Driven!!! (As you have mentioned him Vidvad)

...he may come across a bit sharp sometimes ? LoL...
But if we put our egos aside...
(Work in progress)

Driven is spot on... IMO
He gets it..
"Simplicity is the key...Enter, MM, Control Fear and Greed"

Peeling the layers of the Onion back... No need for layers of bullshit. Thanks Driven

Credit where credit is due !


Cheers
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #798
  • Edited 8:11pm May 18, 2025 7:58pm | Edited 8:11pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} I must add.... Kudos to Driven!!! (As you have mentioned him Vidvad) ...he may come across a bit sharp sometimes ? LoL... But if we put our egos aside... (Work in progress) Driven is spot on... IMO He gets it.. "Simplicity is the key...Enter, MM, Control Fear and Greed" Peeling the layers of the Onion back... No need for layers of bullshit. Thanks Driven Credit where credit is due ! Cheers Blue
Thanks Blue, I appreciate this...My "simple" is to milk as much as possible from one trade, i. e. I am comfortable with homeruns and tailored my techniques and my mind towards hitting as many homeruns as possible. To me, this is the only way to trade..I did "go broke taking small profits", lesson learned, but to "each its own" and I appreciate other traders who think otherwise, especially who work hard at their craft..few in this thread( no names, you know who you are ).
  • #799
  • May 18, 2025 8:28pm May 18, 2025 8:28pm
Quoting driven18
{quote} Thanks Blue, I appreciate this...My "simple" is to milk as much as possible from one trade, i. e. I am comfortable with homeruns and tailored my techniques and my mind towards hitting as many homeruns as possible. To me, this is the only way to trade..I did "go broke taking small profits", lesson learned, "but to "each its own" and I appreciate other traders who think otherwise, especially who work hard at their craft..few in this thread( no names ).
I have to agree as I'm of the same mindset...I have always gravitated towards larger trades/homeruns etc...

For a long time I struggled with letting those large runs turn on me and get stopped out at BE or even a loss... Finally after years I figured it out..was all mindset.

Today for ex...took a trade on Gold,,, long on the opening Globex 5min bar... A $25.90 move.
Which for many is a huge trade. Not to sound egotistical but for me was just another gold trade...

Comes down to confidence and conviction for me...

We're all wired differently and I too appreciate others who trade different....to each their own. The holy grail IMO is in the mindset>>>> MM...

Who am I to say whether a method works or not? How could I possibly see in someone elses mindset and judge them....

We as individuals are the difference not the method.
(IMO)

Cheers
Blue
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #800
  • May 19, 2025 8:30am May 19, 2025 8:30am
Today trades
GER40: 1x loss, 1x BE
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