The Swamp

I bought some GLD call options today. I think Gold will retrace to the center line of the 20 day price channel within the next 2 days

testing 1212 now... 1171 is now 1172.9
1212 may act like 1171 did
atm high at 1214.7
1186 may attract when bulls are tired

PA is back above 1212.. the high 1218 now. My generic short is after 1226, if it looks tired..If I get a short signal. Tp some 1186/87.

The run from 1267 to this weeks look odds are improving. During the week that inflation news may have dulled it. The move is probably institutional liquidity sweeps. Down Monday. up before Wednesday, back down to Monday's low before close Friday. Is how I tried to play it. But Tuesday I didnt follow the script. until it broke out at 1187... Since I'm with the script

1172 may resist.. London closed below 1172.. That leans bearish to me.
A big red candle below 1154.8 is likely a continuation

the 4h made a decent move to close below 1154. Possible weekend gap open development looking favorable.

COT on the short side

Dumbass brought up tariffs a few hours ago.. All bets off

PA closed between 1154 and 1172... If it was below 1154 it had a shot to gap down.. below 72, and not 54 is less favorable; If it open below 1154.. It may just continue the slide.. Above 72 it may rise

I would keep my eyes open for a sell signal anytime now 1194/1212/1219.. Cot was bearish so it may top in this area

Moody's news not in the usd's favor
forex weekend news concerning the usd
Here's a summary of Forex weekend news concerning the USD, particularly focusing on the impact of Moody's downgrade and other relevant factors:
1. Moody's Downgrade & USD Weakness:

1. Moody's downgraded the US government's credit rating from Aaa to AA1, citing concerns about rising interest costs and unsustainable debt growth.
2. This downgrade could exacerbate recent USD weakness as it raises concerns about the nation's fiscal outlook and safe-haven status.
3. The downgrade surprised some market participants and could trigger renewed USD selling pressure.

2. Impact on Currency Pairs:

1. EUR/USD: The Euro strengthened against the USD, with EUR/USD testing resistance around the 1.1200 level.
2. USD/JPY: USD/JPY hovered above the key support level of 145.00, with risks skewed towards further declines.
3. Gold: Gold prices saw a bounce from support levels, potentially driven by increased safe-haven demand amidst USD weakness.

3. Other Factors Affecting USD:

1. Trade Tensions: Lingering trade frictions and uncertainty continue to weigh on USD sentiment.
2. US Economic Data: Recent weak US data, including lower-than-expected retail sales and consumer sentiment, have contributed to USD weakness.
3. Interest Rate Expectations: Markets are anticipating potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which typically weaken the USD.
4. Divergence in Central Bank Policies: Differing growth trajectories globally have led to disparities in central bank policies, potentially impacting USD strength.

4. USD Performance & Outlook:

1. The US Dollar Index (DXY) edged lower after the downgrade, trimming some of its recent gains.
2. Despite some bearish pressures, the dollar has shown resilience and remains supported by certain factors.
3. The short-term USD outlook is uncertain and will likely be influenced by upcoming economic data releases and any updates on trade negotiations.

In summary: Moody's downgrade of US debt is a significant event that could contribute to further USD weakness, particularly in the short term. However, other factors, such as trade tensions, US economic data, and interest rate expectations, are also playing a role in shaping the USD's trajectory. Traders should monitor these developments closely in the coming week.

ADR hit at 1270. I took a short.. If this is a Monday run.. It may ready to drop 120 pips. S/l for is based on 120 pips reward. Moody's may have helped it rise (it can go higher). COT was still short. I dont like that the 12h closed this high. But pa is below the 2023 hit at 1275. So I just took a shot at it, it's a Monday collecting souls

It's not looking like a good choice so far. My stops at 1280 are in deep shit.. Almost hit atm

It was hit.. I got back in later. The tp will still be 115x.. last week pa ran past adr.. This week its 14 pips above atm.. 1257 may start to resist.. If below 1215 today sustained, its like continuing. possible place to see reaction at 1257.

If just touched 1257..

Lets see if it resist enough 1257.4
PA if it falls, may need to come back near here later.. maybe after a test of 1212/15ish support. Lets see what happens with 1257 now for lc

LC being below... I lean bearish toward 1215 test, later 1145xx.. NY traders may have other plans. 1215 has a potential bounce right back here in the 125x area

It may drop, it may not. It may bounce 1215 ish or not. I think its going to 115x.. maybe deeper. NY pa may differ in my plans. 1257.4 would need to be taken

NY is pressing..