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The Swamp

  • #122,901
  • May 13, 2025 9:03am May 13, 2025 9:03am
A positive close for 1111 to be reached
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  • #122,902
  • May 13, 2025 9:56am May 13, 2025 9:56am
It looks like it is establish above 1143.. my stop was hit..
1111 is voided
1187 looks close
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  • #122,903
  • May 13, 2025 12:20pm May 13, 2025 12:20pm
Quoting gatorinla
It looks like it is establish above 1143.. my stop was hit.. 1111 is voided 1187 looks close
1.1187.7 is the midpoint to 1.0802. See if anything happens there.
If its rejected 1142 will be in the sequence and 1096.x again
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  • #122,904
  • May 13, 2025 8:50pm May 13, 2025 8:50pm
LC is 1162, but I have pa bullish above 1176.. I went with Cott and the bearish scenario earlier this week.. On Monday it worked well. On Tuesday not so well. There is a phenomenon That happens with a Monday strong moves. It often erases its large moves. most often by Wednesday, and lesser before Friday. I dont know if pa will reach 1162 like a normal day with 1176 blocking. 1176 could support, it could allow 1162, then close back above 1176. I dont know.. another support that can repeal is 1129 1142 1101. I have this going to 1.0802 eventually (this quarter).. 1096x is the 68.2% mark. It bounced toward the 50% mark at 1187. Before that 1142 area held it up.. I dont know if its about to fall in the 1187 area, to 1162 or run to 1267.. Cott lead me to think the Monday retrace phenomena was unlikely. But I'm not so sure it will not go to 1267 with this bounce
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  • #122,905
  • May 14, 2025 12:53am May 14, 2025 12:53am
I'm going to take a small short EU. Stop at Friday's close. Inside day bar usually reverses. Looking for new low for the week.
  • #122,906
  • Edited 3:23am May 14, 2025 3:00am | Edited 3:23am
Quoting gatorinla
LC is 1162, but I have pa bullish above 1176.. I went with Cott and the bearish scenario earlier this week.. On Monday it worked well. On Tuesday not so well. There is a phenomenon That happens with a Monday strong moves. It often erases its large moves. most often by Wednesday, and lesser before Friday. I dont know if pa will reach 1162 like a normal day with 1176 blocking. 1176 could support, it could allow 1162, then close back above 1176. I dont know.. another support that can repeal is 1129 1142 1101. I have this going to 1.0802 eventually...
Today is Wednesday, it hits most often today. There is also another phenonium. PA is attracted to 1062. I would not be impossible to do both. Go to 1267ish then fall to 1162. COTT is still beamish. This is what I was talking about a day ago. let me find it.
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  • #122,907
  • May 14, 2025 3:05am May 14, 2025 3:05am
Quoting gatorinla
If correct about 1143 possibly being a gatekeeper. Late Asia would be a good time for the larger players to close some shorts, to drive the price up to 1143. While the market is thin, would give closing shorts the better advantage. Later when London opens. May be when enough shorts are added pressure a further drop. Just a guess. My big day Monday reversal, tells me the opposite. But with China tariff and 1.0802 pulling. It may be enough.. S/l can be just avoiding a wick poke of 1143..
I could of been long just as easily near the lows targeting 1267. I ignored it based on COTm with "trend is your friend"
1143 probably was the "gate keeprt"
1267 is not a trend. But it happens eough, to consider a trend. the 1h 200ema is in the way of 1267. Once near 1267.. Look for signs its turning bearish. You may get a 1062 reward in line with a drop to 1.0802
I can be wrong.
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  • #122,908
  • May 14, 2025 3:16am May 14, 2025 3:16am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I could of been long just as easily near the lows targeting 1267. I ignored it based on COTm with "trend is your friend" 1143 probably was the "gate keeprt" 1267 is not a trend. But it happens eough, to consider a trend. the 1h 200ema is in the way of 1267. Once near 1267.. Look for signs its turning bearish. You may get a 1062 reward in line with a drop to 1.0802 I can be wrong.
She found the 200..1240 ish.. some interest at 1253. Then opens 1267.. After that watch... But if it missed by a pip dont be mad.. I'm counting on 1162 attracting and COT
The week average range at 1281.. We may see the other end of that range
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  • #122,909
  • May 14, 2025 3:25am May 14, 2025 3:25am
gap closed
20 more pips may stop out gap/close shorters 1253 has that interest. Those guys are not gunning for 1267.. many will be stopped.. And looking to go long after. Only to be stopped on a fal to 1162
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  • #122,910
  • May 14, 2025 4:19am May 14, 2025 4:19am
Tuesday PF sucked
In a long to tp 1266.8.. But it's my first trade today. if it hits tp or a close it green.. It will have no PF. Until i have a loser
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  • #122,911
  • May 14, 2025 4:35am May 14, 2025 4:35am
I closed early. but it may hit 1267 still.. That strong drop makes me believe 1267 has some power
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  • #122,912
  • May 14, 2025 4:48am May 14, 2025 4:48am
If you see a rejection sigh you use personally. It may be getting exhausted. That's your call. If to, or not to.. This is what a Monday rejection move looks like0 I was worried about this happening yesterday. I stuck with other things. I zigged but should've zagged. The same move without the Monday run. I probably would of won.
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  • #122,913
  • May 14, 2025 4:58am May 14, 2025 4:58am
Quoting gatorinla
If you see a rejection sigh you use personally. It may be getting exhausted. That's your call. If to, or not to.. This is what a Monday rejection move looks like0 I was worried about this happening yesterday. I stuck with other things. I zigged but should've zagged. The same move without the Monday run. I probably would of won. {image}
I will call this a hit.. Its 1/2 pip from the line. If exhausted.. I can't say for sure. It may drop those 105 pips to 1162 in the next 5 hs.
On any drop that gap may have lost those new shorts here above 1265. Many switched to longs with the gap as a stop.. Those turn to short momentum as hit.
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  • #122,914
  • May 14, 2025 5:06am May 14, 2025 5:06am
Quoting gatorinla
gap closed 20 more pips may stop out gap/close shorters 1253 has that interest. Those guys are not gunning for 1267.. many will be stopped.. And looking to go long after. Only to be stopped on a fal to 1162 {image}
the 1h closed below 1253
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  • #122,915
  • May 14, 2025 5:16am May 14, 2025 5:16am
Some S 1176 still in the way of any fall.. Back below it can make it R.
R in the neutral area 1101 to 1176. 1101 some breakout/support. if that was the high. 1 adr could put pa right back above 1142.
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  • #122,916
  • May 14, 2025 6:40am May 14, 2025 6:40am
I closed 1/2 my positions.. PA is still above 1176.. The rest at b.e. +.. I will just move the stops down.
1187 is also in the path.. that inflation new yesterday placed pa up here above that midpoint at 1187.. I will see how it works out
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  • #122,917
  • May 14, 2025 9:27am May 14, 2025 9:27am
With 33 minutes to go.. In the 1187 area has support at 1184.5. If 1184 holds.. its likely running back to 1253.. atm low at 1202
PA is still above 1176..So that's still on the bullish side..Later as time goes on Pa may be under a number like 1176.. That may be 1253ish
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  • #122,918
  • May 14, 2025 9:49am May 14, 2025 9:49am
If short from the 1267 area. You have green.. I may be wrong about 1.0802 at this time. This rise above 1187 and 1142 has pa on the wrong side atm. That's just a fact. If so those supports may be long places that may run more than they otherwise would not had. That inflation news has weakened the usd. It could make 1278 again 1233 looks easy to do off 1187. I closed the shorts.
PA is under 1233.. As long as it is.. 1187 would be in line.. Today only it has help to support with 1184 and 1176
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  • #122,919
  • May 14, 2025 10:08am May 14, 2025 10:08am
Possible trade may develop.. Exhaustion 1176 area, tp 1212. 36+ pips
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  • #122,920
  • May 14, 2025 10:42am May 14, 2025 10:42am
Quoting gatorinla
Possible trade may develop.. Exhaustion 1176 area, tp 1212. 36+ pips
I probably will not take the trade. I think pa is going to 1.0802. The run to 1267 is the same type run.. They just run when they run, until the target is met. They defy S/R They just do it..The run to 1267 is a microversion. i will just collect little shorts.. The next target is near this weeks low. 106x. if right it will be there for Friday
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