Only EURUSD

Scalping Buy 1114 - 16

Cutloss, Sell 1105 - 03

DXY H1
trendlines

Bullish DXY = Bearish EURUSD

Exactly, that's why I watch dxy.
if I don't know where to go with eurusd, I'll look at dxy...

update EURUSD H1
1.11 is the last call for bulls...by staying above this level.

Kind of mixed signals but above 1.11 i think we can at least see 1.114.

dxy is good indicator for eu, sometimes i do check uj as well. It sometimes react slightly quicker than eu

Right now I am waiting on the sidelines for the CPI.

what do you think, it did forecast to be better than last time. With tradewar in the background
a better cpi figure indicates fed to keep rate unchanged, should boost up dollars
but if cpi increased, also adds concern to a potential recession and stagflation (with the deal between China/US, this may not be the case)
so if cpi comes out better than expected eu should go down.
though trump may come out start asking for rate cut again

I think we will touch 1.12 today after overcoming R

GBP take previous NY high, BE
If price break 1;11 looking for short

Watching what bulls will do now!

Hello everyone!
My name is Everton and I'm from Brazil!
I prefer trading EUR/USD, since the spread is zero with my broker!
While doing some research online, I found the forum and decided to join!
Since I'm not fluent in English, I’ll write in Brazilian Portuguese and use ChatGPT to translate before posting, okay?
I hope you all understand!
I’ll be sharing my template where I look for small entries!

bull doesnt seem strong for now

i am closing my scalp long with just a few pips

Its going to take more time to show us where it will move today, patience until later then!

If anyone is interested in why we often lose on important news like today, I present the two largest gaps caught a few seconds after the news release this year on the CPI...
January and February 2025

The spread can be as much as 10-15 pips a few seconds before the news release when it comes to the euro dollar, and when it comes to other currencies, the spread itself can be as much as 20-40 pips. Gaps can be as big as 40-60 pips sometimes...

EURUSD on FTMO server on CPI (charts are in pips difference, not the current price)
February 2025, max spread 7 pips, News gap 41 pips
January 2025, max spread 10 pips, News gap 38 pips

Key Takeaways from Today's CPI Data
The April 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released today (May 13, 2025), provides crucial insights into the U.S. inflation landscape amid evolving trade dynamics and economic conditions. Here's a detailed breakdown of the key findings:

1. Headline Inflation Stability: The annual inflation rate held steady at 2.4% in April, matching March's figure. This suggests inflation has stabilized after consecutive monthly declines from February's 2.8% reading.
2. Monthly Rebound: After March's surprising 0.1% monthly decline (the first since May 2020), April saw prices rise by 0.3% month-over-month, meeting expectations. This rebound indicates the March dip may have been temporary.
3. Core Inflation Persistence: Core CPI (excluding food and energy) remained at 2.8% annually, its lowest level since 2021. The monthly core reading accelerated to 0.3% from March's 0.1%, suggesting underlying price pressures persist.

Sector-Specific Analysis
Tariff Impacts Beginning to Emerge
The report shows initial signs of inflationary pressure from tariffs implemented in February, though the full impact remains limited:

1. Automotive Sector: Most visible tariff effects appeared in auto prices as businesses began passing on some higher import costs
2. Delayed Broader Impact: The 90-day tariff pause announced just before the CPI release means most tariff effects won't be fully reflected until future reports

Energy and Food Dynamics

1. Energy Prices: After March's 2.4% monthly decline, energy prices showed some recovery in April
2. Food Inflation: Accelerated to 3% annually in March, continuing an upward trend that likely persisted in April

Shelter Costs

1. Shelter inflation moderated to 4% annually in March, down from 4.2% in February
2. This key component continues to show gradual cooling but remains elevated

Market and Policy Implications
Federal Reserve Perspective
Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently stated the Fed needs to see actual tariff impacts in data before adjusting policy. Today's mixed signals likely maintain the Fed's cautious stance:

1. Steady annual inflation supports current policy
2. Rising monthly core CPI suggests need for vigilance
3. Tariff uncertainty complicates the outlook

Market Reactions
The CPI release comes amid a market surge following the US-China tariff pause announcement:

1. Equity markets may view the data favorably as showing contained inflation
2. Bond markets will note the yield curve steepening potential
3. Currency markets may see limited USD impact given offsetting factors

Historical Context and Trends

1. Current 2.4% inflation remains below the 3.3% historical average (1914-2025)
2. Core inflation at 2.8% is near the Fed's target range
3. The March monthly decline (-0.1%) was the first in nearly 5 years

Forward-Looking Considerations

1. Tariff Timeline: The 90-day pause means May-July data will be crucial for assessing true inflationary impacts
2. Base Effects: Year-over-year comparisons may become less favorable in coming months
3. Services Inflation: At 3.7% annually in March, remains a key area to watch
4. Global Context: OECD inflation at 4.2% shows U.S. inflation relatively contained

Conclusion: A Transitional Report
The April CPI represents a transitional dataset caught between fading pandemic effects and emerging tariff influences. While showing stability in annual measures, the report hints at building underlying pressures that could materialize more fully in coming months. Markets and policymakers will likely view this as confirming neither an acceleration nor decisive cooling of inflation, maintaining the current cautious wait-and-see approach. The true test will come in summer reports that incorporate more post-tariff decision data.

If there are any mistakes, please tell me.

Yes, with all due respect, bulls are weak and price seems to start dropping rather than taking it to the North.
Overall, PA is very uncertain and and I guess I am going to wait for the effect of CPI announcement later today.

Yes bad decision to go long until news later but not any damage done.