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The Swamp

  • #122,841
  • May 9, 2025 2:06pm May 9, 2025 2:06pm
The new COT showing dominant large trader shorts,
The rejection from 1293,
The LC close below 1278,
The fact that price failed to reclaim 1278, and
The likelihood of a gap or continuation move early next week,
imo
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,842
  • May 10, 2025 2:25am May 10, 2025 2:25am
$index & EU Lunar Cycle
1 2 4 weeks MA's
4% range levels

both are entering a sideway stage after 5 months of their current trend

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"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #122,843
  • May 10, 2025 7:18am May 10, 2025 7:18am
Quoting gatorinla
The new COT showing dominant large trader shorts, The rejection from 1293, The LC close below 1278, The fact that price failed to reclaim 1278, and The likelihood of a gap or continuation move early next week, imo
Adr is around 123 using the 24 period setting. It's not my birthday, so i have no birthday wishes that will work. But on Monday if it could reach a large move over adr. Once it tires and shows signs of exhaustion. That may be one that can reach 1270/60 ish again. Most often by Wednesday sometimes Friday. So when Sunday opens it may gap down. If that gap closes or wherever the high is. If it falls. 123 pips+ from there that is a good place to look for exhaustion. I dont know if if will blow through 1187 or 1143. Both have supportive merit. That's only 100 pips. 1130 has a 12h support (more in line with adr). Somewhere down there it can find support for a 1270/6x ish run. So i will look for a sign. A long is against COT. So i would cut the size of the trade or stay out. If it went to 1267 and not in, it's just a missed trade. I could use it for a high quality short.
If no gap down and no fall early. Like indicated turns out to be wrong.. I will look to short the shit out of 1270 ish if given the chance Sunday
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,844
  • May 10, 2025 6:35pm May 10, 2025 6:35pm
Bitcoin can grow some wings if it can make 104,358 support. Like it was resistance in the past. it has the first hour close above
It made a short term HH. I have it as bullish. This is the breakout challenge
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,845
  • May 11, 2025 2:53am May 11, 2025 2:53am
Quoting gatorinla
Bitcoin can grow some wings if it can make 104,358 support. Like it was resistance in the past. it has the first hour close above It made a short term HH. I have it as bullish. This is the breakout challenge {image}
The R held.. It's trying again atm. Sadly my long wasn't triggered
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,846
  • May 11, 2025 1:08pm May 11, 2025 1:08pm
this late before open that may be a real gap down.. i thought it may. Lets see where it opens
Quoting gatorinla
It looks like pa may close below 1267 and maybe 1250. .. i left a chance to bounce from 1216 back to 1267 in above post. That bounce has lessened its chances. It may gap down and run to 1187 without that bounce. 1267 may come up if its a hard "V" down Monday. For a chance to bounce back later next week. I removed my 1216 tp.. If it blows past 1187.. 1145 ish may produce a bounce
Quoting gatorinla
The new COT showing dominant large trader shorts, The rejection from 1293, The LC close below 1278, The fact that price failed to reclaim 1278, and The likelihood of a gap or continuation move early next week, imo
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,847
  • May 11, 2025 1:17pm May 11, 2025 1:17pm
Its bounced near 1214... and now broke lower to 1199.. It looks real with 45 mint till open
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,848
  • May 11, 2025 1:34pm May 11, 2025 1:34pm
it looks real.. institutional real.. its gone to a LL 1194 now. I dont anticipate longing to 1267 or even the gap now. if this is real. It's not because of us little traders
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  • #122,849
  • May 11, 2025 1:54pm May 11, 2025 1:54pm
7 m to go.. this close to open.. This looks real Its looking like a 50 pip gap down.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,850
  • May 11, 2025 2:00pm May 11, 2025 2:00pm
The real deal.. open 1186 60 pips rare
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,851
  • May 11, 2025 2:23pm May 11, 2025 2:23pm
added a smaller short 1222
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,852
  • May 11, 2025 3:35pm May 11, 2025 3:35pm
I dont know if it will back up pa.. 1227 has possible R.. But it may see some wicks passing it. The China Tariff news may have helped the gap. The reality of it being bullshit may be setting in
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,853
  • May 11, 2025 4:10pm May 11, 2025 4:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
It looks like pa may close below 1267 and maybe 1250. .. i left a chance to bounce from 1216 back to 1267 in above post. That bounce has lessened its chances. It may gap down and run to 1187 without that bounce. 1267 may come up if its a hard "V" down Monday. For a chance to bounce back later next week. I removed my 1216 tp.. If it blows past 1187.. 1145 ish may produce a bounce
If the spread at the time was not so big. some tp would be hit the low at 1184.x
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,854
  • May 11, 2025 5:25pm May 11, 2025 5:25pm
there will be a 4h close next h. and a 6h close 2hs later below -1222.7 may keep it bearish just a guess. If so, it may start to resist
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,855
  • May 11, 2025 7:40pm May 11, 2025 7:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
there will be a 4h close next h. and a 6h close 2hs later below -1222.7 may keep it bearish just a guess. If so, it may start to resist
The 4 didnt get back below 1222. it puts pa between it and several R toward 1267. 1267 can attract pa. But the same story about COT being bearish, and the Friday pa being bearish. It may not make there. I say its bearish. But I can be wrong. The gap is suspect the way Friday closed. The gap may not be closed. Friday was institutional behavior,, It lead me to believe it would gap. That's why I think it will continue.
I did think 1187 may support, but the way it closed makes me believe its on track to 1.0803
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,856
  • May 11, 2025 8:31pm May 11, 2025 8:31pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The 4 didnt get back below 1222. it puts pa between it and several R toward 1267. 1267 can attract pa. But the same story about COT being bearish, and the Friday pa being bearish. It may not make there. I say its bearish. But I can be wrong. The gap is suspect the way Friday closed. The gap may not be closed. Friday was institutional behavior,, It lead me to believe it would gap. That's why I think it will continue. I did think 1187 may support, but the way it closed makes me believe its on track to 1.0803
"1.0803" that's over 400 pips; it's not that easy given the prevailing general situation ( it may take weeks ).
I think the fastest way to reach this point, 1.0803, is if the clown announces a deal with China.
I might be wrong too
  • #122,857
  • May 12, 2025 12:13am May 12, 2025 12:13am
Quoting e3sarX
{quote} "1.0803" that's over 400 pips; it's not that easy given the prevailing general situation ( it may take weeks ). I think the fastest way to reach this point, 1.0803, is if the clown announces a deal with China. I might be wrong too
Mr gatorinla
Here we go...
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  • #122,858
  • May 12, 2025 12:32am May 12, 2025 12:32am
Quoting e3sarX
{quote} Mr gatorinla Here we go... {image}
I took profit.. Its bearish for 1.0802.. but it may come back to 1142 or 1187
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,859
  • May 12, 2025 1:15am May 12, 2025 1:15am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I took profit.. Its bearish for 1.0802.. but it may come back to 1142 or 1187 {image}
I didnt know about China when I took profit
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,860
  • May 12, 2025 1:45am May 12, 2025 1:45am
1142/54 looks to have some light R. 1130 can be too.. But maybe after it can be a loose one. 1142 may be stiffer
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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