Nasdaq-Simple Intraday Strategy

Good day!
NQ is still ranging within the consolidation area. It tested the bottom and the top of this area.
What is next?
- From the FED, NQ is supposed to go south.
- But Tweets and announcement of deals and big deals (today at 10am) are pushing NQ price up.

In my view, all what is coming from the WH is the status quo presented as a winning strategy.
The main direction is south. Price might extend up to: 20337 & 20584.
(note: As long as the price does not make a new ATH, the projected 5 waves is valid. So this current Wave 2 may reach the above levels and nothing will change in terms of outlook. I strongly doubt price will go way beyond the top of the consolidation area (may be 20337)).

As an advice, do not buy blindly before the release of this "big deal"!
Here is my personal speculation:
Market will be very disappointed with this upcoming big deal! The deal is about the donations (by trillions) he will receive from the puppet stupid "queens" of the Gulf "countries" during this weekend tour.
The insider Trump's team (the billionaires) will sell stocks and indices.

The 5min opening range was a strong bearish.. but Trump is coming in a few... so no trade until we hear the "big news".

When should he speak or relase the news ?

It's supposed to be at 10:00 am (NY time)... all stream media are waiting...

While we're waiting for the circus, here is a potential move.

There will be deals made. This will be good for market.

As always Trump is running late for the meeting by 30 minutes.

The "deals" will be positive stocks and equities. This is a fact.
But if you dig deeper in those "deals"; they'll be almost the status quo in comparison to prior tariffs.
Also all those tariffs, even if they're just 10% or 25%, the US citizen who is going to pay it. So prices will go up; therefore Inflation goes up.
Just a view and I hope I'm wrong.

Listening to the speech, they made a deal, stock market and dollar will go up from here.

NQ closed inside the consolidation area. Price extended the high but did not close above it. Buyers will fight to close above the latest HH; otherwise you know the drill: price will go back to the previous swing to grab liquidity or to change direction.
You can jump in as soon as you have both valid LL and LH at a TF that you choose.
Have a good evening/night!

The data is for this year 2025.

Good day
Eyes on US10y & US30y... both are up to Trump allergy levels.
He might tweet something about China or anything even prior to Saturday meeting with China!
Edit:
Oopps he already did.

Few points following yesterday "big deal" with UK and how the WH seems to work:
1- Min tariffs will be 10% for every country on almost everything (i.e., UK got exempted for their luxury cars)
This 10% is huge. For instance, UK tariffs were 1.7%, now they become 10%; so at least 500% increase.
2- The big deal is not binding; it means that it may change any time and it does not need the endorsement of Houses (Senate, Congress...).
3- The at least 10% tariffs will be charged to consumers. Hence prices up, inflation up, less demand, less sales, less need for employees, increase of unemployment...
These tariffs are direct attack on the FED 2-mandate: full employment and control of prices. Each mandate requires different tools that are sometime contradictory tools. For example, increase of Interest rate is a tool to stop increase of inflation. This tool does not fit with a higher unemployment rate.
4- The FED will bend the knee if not in June, it will be later on. Guaranteed 100%.
----------------
In terms of the WH management, the Team plays double role:
1- One seek the sky (145%) from almost 0-2% initial tariffs
2- The other member gives candies with 10-25% tariffs. As you can see it's still 5x-50x the original tariffs.

So today, Trump seems giving the signal to reduce tariffs on China from 145% to 80%, but the other members will bring it even better to 10-25%... So it looks a great deal and win-win situation which is not.

Market understands this very well and US stocks and equities will pay the price.

The 5min opening range is bullish, but it's noise as price is inside the red candle following Trump's tweet on Chine.
Price needs to breakout and close above or below that candle for a clear direction.

Price closed below Trump's candle.
I just sold it.

you retail traders will learn the hard way

As you will too "retail trader".

Upcoming Weekly Analysis!
FA Analysis:
1- We have two forces (Trump's team, policy and tweets and the FED) as market movers.
2- Trump's Team: Maintaining the UNCERTAINTY
- Minimum tariffs is 10% which is at least 500% of the original tariffs.
- Have a clear strategy: One screaming very high and the other one, the nice guy, offers 10-25% tariffs
- All the deals won't be binding deals; so they might change at any time. So uncertainty is still there.
- It's all about PR and looking good and winning
- Market understands very well what is happening. Market sees the 10% tariffs as a huge barrier.
=) So all what Trump is doing, including the final/big deals, are bad for stocks and equities.
3- The FED:
- Last FED did not provide any hint about June rate cut. FED is data related.
- Last macro-economic data did not help the FED Rate cut. Hence, the upcoming data is very relevant.
- This week, we have key inflation data: CPI and PPI. Higher Inflation data means NO June Cut which is very bad for stocks and equities. Inline and lower inflation data will help FED Cut which is good for stocks and equities.
=) From now on, Good macro-economic data is bad for stocks and equities and vice-versa.
TA Analysis:
Weekly TF:

- From weekly perspective, we got a bullish weekly candle than closed inside a bullish candle.
- Price seems exhausted and toppish. There is no need to go further up. But in any case, the chart shows two higher levels that price might reach in the case of bad economic data.
Daily TF:

- Friday candle was unable to close above the latest HH.
- Price always closed inside the consolidation area.
- Price will test the previous swing low (highlighted by a circle) in case Monday or US-China talks does not close above the latest HH.
=) From weekly and daily TF, NQ should go south.
Wish you a green week Everyone! GL!
(Note: I won't be around this week beside quick in and out; So I won't post most likely)