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The Swamp

  • #122,741
  • May 7, 2025 2:40pm May 7, 2025 2:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Near textbook .. Now can it break and sustain below 1306? {image}
Yep. You were spot on
  • #122,742
  • May 7, 2025 2:42pm May 7, 2025 2:42pm
A big "If". if it can break and hold below 1278... That's a drop sign.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,743
  • May 7, 2025 2:45pm May 7, 2025 2:45pm
Quoting gatorinla
A big "If". if it can break and hold below 1278... That's a drop sign.
I'll be waiting patiently. Ive closed my sells on eu.
  • #122,744
  • May 7, 2025 2:45pm May 7, 2025 2:45pm
If anyone can find a bounce they like on the eg. If may be worth a short at bounce with a drop signal. The Gbp is likely stronger than the eur
If the eu is unable to breakout now.. tonight 1337 may be R. It may not make lc.
GU 3585 has a nice support possible
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,745
  • May 7, 2025 2:53pm May 7, 2025 2:53pm
Quoting mars1
{quote} I'll be waiting patiently. Ive closed my sells on eu.
1306,,, sustained below to start. It had some liquid there and it bounced. The pool drained
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,746
  • May 7, 2025 3:02pm May 7, 2025 3:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
If anyone can find a bounce they like on the eg. If may be worth a short at bounce with a drop signal. The Gbp is likely stronger than the eur If the eu is unable to breakout now.. tonight 1337 may be R. It may not make lc. GU 3585 has a nice support possible
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,747
  • May 7, 2025 3:40pm May 7, 2025 3:40pm
If he dont stop, expect this.
A squared tariff theory.
Imagine if the government puts a tariff (tax) on something coming into the country — say steel. A squared tariff just means the cost doesn't go up in a straight line — it goes up faster the higher the tariff. Like, if a 10% tariff adds $1, a 20% one doesn’t add $2, it might add $4. The cost snowballs.
145% is a planet killer. (self inflicted country killer?)
Let’s say you run a hardware store in small-town Alabama:

  1. You buy wheelbarrows and nails that are made with imported steel.
  2. Steel costs go up, not by a little — but a whole lot because of that squared tariff.
  3. The supplier charges you more, and you gotta charge your customer more.
  4. Your regular Joe walks in, sees the new price, and says “Hell no, I’ll wait.”
  5. You lose sales, your profit shrinks, and you’re stuck with expensive inventory.
  6. Meanwhile, big chains like Home Depot get bulk deals or source cheaper.
  7. Normally: You buy a rake for $10, sell for $15, pocket$5.
  8. After squared tariff: That rake costs you $14, you try selling it for $18, but no one bites.
  9. Result? You lose customers, get undercut, or eat the loss.
  10. Bye Bye Mom and pop, and medium size chains without bulk buying power

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,748
  • May 7, 2025 3:46pm May 7, 2025 3:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
If he dont stop, expect this. A squared tariff theory. Imagine if the government puts a tariff (tax) on something coming into the country — say steel. A squared tariff just means the cost doesn't go up in a straight line — it goes up faster the higher the tariff. Like, if a 10% tariff adds $1, a 20% one doesn’t add $2, it might add $4. The cost snowballs. 145% is a planet killer. (self inflicted country killer?) Let’s say you run a hardware store in small-town Alabama: You buy wheelbarrows and nails that are made with imported steel. Steel costs...
I understand the tariff situation. But what baffles me is what does orange man want to achieve? How is this going to help the US economy? Doe he think compnaies will move to the US and manufacturer products cheaper?
  • #122,749
  • May 7, 2025 4:18pm May 7, 2025 4:18pm
Quoting mars1
{quote} I understand the tariff situation. But what baffles me is what does orange man want to achieve? How is this going to help the US economy? Doe he think compnaies will move to the US and manufacturer products cheaper?
yes, but will not be cheaper. We dont have the labor. If you take all the products produced worldwide, and imported to the u.s.a. That's probably many millions of people making those products. We already have a labor shortage with a 4% unemployment rate. Most of the new factories would need to be robots. We would need to let immigrants in to work those jobs. OOPS. I'm not against bringing jobs back. But it would be a slow process. It takes 2 or 3 years to build a factory, train people etc. It's not a switch you turn off and on. He hasn't gave anyone a stable plan to even build a factory. He is supposed to be still making deals. Who would risk building a factory when he could change his mind in an hour. The instability/tariffs he stoked. Made interest rates higher than they should be. Who wants to borrow money when his instability is raising treasuries (higher borrowing rates) In the past the government has helped companies establish new factories He has no plans for that either. It's just populism without a real plan. Fool most of the people most of the time. Then blame others when you dont do it. Build a wall that Mexico will pay for. No wall, no Mexican payment. Bullshit for people who like to be lied to.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,750
  • May 7, 2025 4:29pm May 7, 2025 4:29pm
The EG is below .8513/14. Above is sustained may be a b/o. But if it holds its a good R area..
Cot may favor EG shorts
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,751
  • May 7, 2025 4:42pm May 7, 2025 4:42pm
The eu closed below 1307.. A potential sustained break (not below 1278 yet). So it may not make it back to lc. There is potential R at 1337/38
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,752
  • May 7, 2025 5:10pm May 7, 2025 5:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
The eu closed below 1307.. A potential sustained break (not below 1278 yet). So it may not make it back to lc. There is potential R at 1337/38 {image}
from a trend perspective looks like a good setup, but once we get to 1.127 bulls may come again especially after another weekend with no deals.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,753
  • May 7, 2025 6:07pm May 7, 2025 6:07pm
Its a good chance I'm pissing money away. I longed the gu. Because I think its stronger than the eur. My tp 3365.. If it was to rise.. 3366 could attract it. I took a 1 to 8 R/R. I assume its bearish and will not make 3366
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,754
  • May 7, 2025 6:14pm May 7, 2025 6:14pm
The GU did not close below 3285. So i longed it.. Not now.. but later that will change to 3292
If the eu gets a sustained hold above 1338. it may be going up too (1367). As much as i wanted it too. It didnt take 1278
In a couple of hours the R at 1307 will expire.. it may test 1338
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,755
  • May 7, 2025 8:32pm May 7, 2025 8:32pm
Quoting gatorinla
Its a good chance I'm pissing money away. I longed the gu. Because I think its stronger than the eur. My tp 3365.. If it was to rise.. 3366 could attract it. I took a 1 to 8 R/R. I assume its bearish and will not make 3366
above b.e. now. Risk negative now.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,756
  • May 7, 2025 9:05pm May 7, 2025 9:05pm
Quoting gatorinla
The GU did not close below 3285. So i longed it.. Not now.. but later that will change to 3292 If the eu gets a sustained hold above 1338. it may be going up too (1367). As much as i wanted it too. It didnt take 1278 In a couple of hours the R at 1307 will expire.. it may test 1338 {image}
I guess it was the right decision.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,757
  • May 7, 2025 9:22pm May 7, 2025 9:22pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} We would need to let immigrants in to work those jobs.
You forget something, he is against the immigrants in the same time.
It seems like they're going around in circles
  • #122,758
  • May 7, 2025 9:24pm May 7, 2025 9:24pm
Quoting e3sarX
{quote} You forget something, he is against the immigrants in the same time. It seems like they're going around in circles
That's why I said "oops".
If its a signed trade deal..That's a treaty. He can't do that without senate approval 66%.. That's in constitution. The senate would know if he had a real deal. The most he will get is a trade agreement. They usually take years to do a single one. Its bullshit. Why would any company build a new factory on bullshit? It could change in a second. He may lose in court. To even do an agreement. If he losses' the usd should rally
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,759
  • May 7, 2025 9:37pm May 7, 2025 9:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
The EG is below .8513/14. Above is sustained may be a b/o. But if it holds its a good R area.. Cot may favor EG shorts {image} {image}
missed my entry atm EG
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,760
  • May 7, 2025 9:42pm May 7, 2025 9:42pm
Quoting gatorinla
The GU did not close below 3285. So i longed it.. Not now.. but later that will change to 3292 If the eu gets a sustained hold above 1338. it may be going up too (1367). As much as i wanted it too. It didnt take 1278 In a couple of hours the R at 1307 will expire.. it may test 1338 {image}
missed eu atm too. If it holds 1337/38 R. Its the bear side. It opens up a drop. Its attracted to 1367, but it may not make it
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