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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #12,701
  • Aug 4, 2007 6:51pm Aug 4, 2007 6:51pm
I'll be clobbering up the thread a bit with 4 or 5 upcoming posts. So please, just skip if you're not interested.

I'm starting live trading next week and I'm taking this quite seriously. Any feedback on my analysis would be appreciated (like I got the numbers wrong or whatever). Thanks in advance.

First stop was the long term monthly analysis (see earlier).

This time, we'll have a look at the monthly analysis since the last low to the the last high:

http://i10.tinypic.com/67iqwbo.jpg

http://i16.tinypic.com/5zpng3d.jpg
  • #12,702
  • Aug 4, 2007 6:53pm Aug 4, 2007 6:53pm
Then we'll look at the weeklies:

http://i12.tinypic.com/63szorl.jpg

http://i10.tinypic.com/4kv6n0j.jpg
  • #12,703
  • Aug 4, 2007 6:55pm Aug 4, 2007 6:55pm
Here come the daylies:

http://i16.tinypic.com/4yyrpyr.jpg

http://i10.tinypic.com/4zc4e2e.jpg
  • #12,704
  • Aug 4, 2007 7:04pm Aug 4, 2007 7:04pm
Almost done, 2 more to go.

4H coming up:

http://i10.tinypic.com/4q7qzyx.jpg

http://i16.tinypic.com/4qs2frk.jpg
  • #12,705
  • Aug 4, 2007 7:06pm Aug 4, 2007 7:06pm
Last one, the hourly:

http://i9.tinypic.com/4zjdzzr.jpg

http://i19.tinypic.com/4lp54kz.jpg
  • #12,706
  • Aug 4, 2007 7:07pm Aug 4, 2007 7:07pm
And here is the summary:

http://i15.tinypic.com/53pztja.jpg
  • #12,707
  • Aug 4, 2007 7:44pm Aug 4, 2007 7:44pm
Qpip,

You've done your homework well. Thanks for sharing this detailed info on the weekend. Keep up the good work and may you be rewarded handsomely for it, as well as for your sharing it with others.

M2B
  • #12,708
  • Aug 4, 2007 8:45pm Aug 4, 2007 8:45pm
Quoting karmostaji
I'm going to post 3 charts that I trade with and explain what I see on each TF

Daily:

  1. Fibonacci Retracement levels (221.05 to 251.07)

  1. 5 Trendlines drawn (2 are weekly, 3 daily)

As you can see in the chart, we are in a nice triangle.. the last candle closed as a bearish engulfing which indicates strong bearish movement. Based on the daily chart, next targets might be 239.60 and 236.05


http://img151.imageshack.us/img151/1833/gjsb2.gif



4H chart:

  1. Fibonacci Retracement levels (251.07 to 237.58)

You can see on the chart the price touched the 38.2% fibo level twice and fell, it couldn't break it. It's very close to it's 23.6% fibo (240.70), it will be easy to break as you see price has cut through it before several times.

http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/5355/gjst6.gif


1H chart:

  1. Fibonacci Retracement levels (237.58 to 243.11)

After reaching 243.11, we got stuck in a boring range for hours, then price penetrated the 23.6% fibo but it came up again, the second attempt it took out the 23.6 and 38.2 fibo, then the market closed for the week
The 61.8 fibo of this last bull run and the daily 38.2 fibo are very close to each other, we might have good support there and it might take a little while till it breaks it.

http://img245.imageshack.us/img245/577/gjcz2.gif

Karmostaji,

Excellent. Let me add my appreciation along with the others for the very understandable presentations you offer show the charts and explanations. It is easy to follow and I am definitely learning TA at an accelerated pace with your live commentary. I may need to change my active trading to your time zone.

Dr. D.
  • #12,709
  • Aug 5, 2007 2:30am Aug 5, 2007 2:30am
Great job Qpip,

I believe you have your Fib numbers reversed.

You have (For Monthly):

23.6 = 187.47
38.2 = 199.62
50.0 = 211.77
61.8 = 226.80

I am reasonably new to Forex but I believe those are baclkwards. You can not have a 23.6% retracement (Short) that is further down then a 61.8% retracement. I looked on my charts and your numbers are correct but it should look like this.

23.6 = 226.80
38.2 = 211.77
50.0 = 199.62
68.1 = 187.47
Que
  • #12,710
  • Aug 5, 2007 2:43am Aug 5, 2007 2:43am
Just a quick question Madj, what is the significance of the 14.6% level? I haven't seen that fib number used before.

Z

Quoting Majd
at the Daily chart front, 239.70 level seems to be the next substantial support (14.6 of minor down trend and most importantly 38.2 of major uptrend)

Attachment

At the weekly chartfront, 239.50 level is the next support with confluence from the weekly support line

Attachment

I am favouring a long at 239.50-70 level
  • #12,711
  • Edited 5:50am Aug 5, 2007 5:40am | Edited 5:50am
plus we have the FOOT and MONTH outbreak in the UK and more trouble with the subprime in the US and with the charts is showing a nice move down should come
  • #12,712
  • Aug 5, 2007 8:48am Aug 5, 2007 8:48am
Quoting Zoran
Just a quick question Madj, what is the significance of the 14.6% level? I haven't seen that fib number used before.

Z
It is another Fibo ratio that results from dividing each number in the series by the 4th number after it:

e.g.

1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 ...

8/ 55 = 14.54
13/ 89 = 14.60
21/ 144 = 14.58

It is a minor retracement level as opposed to other significant ones such as 23.6, 38.2, 61.8 and 76.4.
  • #12,713
  • Aug 5, 2007 9:46am Aug 5, 2007 9:46am
Hi Fellow Traders

This is most intriguing tread I have found out there on the Geppy. The last drop on this I made a ton, but lost within a month because of my lack of trading experience.

The analysis here is great and maybe I can put my 2 cents in soon.

Rumrunner35
  • #12,714
  • Aug 5, 2007 2:19pm Aug 5, 2007 2:19pm
gj

http://images.temppic.com/06-08-2007...0.84809600.jpg

lucky
  • #12,715
  • Aug 5, 2007 2:44pm Aug 5, 2007 2:44pm
http://images.temppic.com/06-08-2007...0.20575000.jpg
  • #12,716
  • Aug 5, 2007 3:14pm Aug 5, 2007 3:14pm
Hi, I have a question that hopefuly somebody can help me to clear it.

Last Friday, the bad economic results of US, lead to a fall in GBP/JPY, up to what I understand, because Yen is getting stronger against USD... but... there is also a pair GBP/USD, so, if USD is weak, Yen appreciate but also GBP should too, so, why Yen won the battle?

I appreciate any coment, happy day and nice trading.
Ado Whether you believe you can do a thing or not, you are right.
  • #12,717
  • Aug 5, 2007 3:30pm Aug 5, 2007 3:30pm
your question on the gbp,yen and usd is little confusing you are miing up these three currencies look at the right and left hand side currency may be that is the confusion
  • #12,718
  • Aug 5, 2007 4:41pm Aug 5, 2007 4:41pm
qpip
that's a great analysis thank you for sharing it here.
  • #12,719
  • Aug 5, 2007 4:53pm Aug 5, 2007 4:53pm
To post a chart, upload your image here:

http://tinyurl.com/363r9m

Then simply copy it, come back here and paste it.

There might also be simpler ways, but this one works for sure!

Happy trading.
  • #12,720
  • Aug 5, 2007 4:56pm Aug 5, 2007 4:56pm
Quoting Que
Great job Qpip,

I believe you have your Fib numbers reversed.
You're absolutely right ! Too much number crunching yesterday for me. Plus, fibs are very new to me, in fact they're still quite a mystery. At least I got how to calculate them right:

Thanks for clearing that up and HAPPY TRADING !!!
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