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The Swamp

  • #122,721
  • Edited 8:46am May 7, 2025 8:28am | Edited 8:46am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} I don't think anyone is expecting a rate cut for this meeting, but market is seeking a hint for June cut. This said, I totally agree that there is economic reason supporting a cut: employment and inflation are not bad.
I lived through stagflation before. The unemployment rate was high. Inflation ran wild. The Prime interest rate hit over 20%. The interest rate was high to drive down inflation. If I recall it correctly inflation (12%), and unemployment (10%) . That seems crazy now. Because since Volcker, the Fed has stayed on top of this. Before it got out of hand. China China China with a 145% tariff increase. Is 145% tax to Americans bottom line. American companies will raise their prices because that's what businesses do. That will cause people to buy less from China and American companies. Lack of demand will equal less need for workers. Unemployment rises. But the high prices will force high interest rates. Stagflation is born. It's hard to get out of. Just look at Japan. Or look at the U.S. The usd did stiffen when the FED had to keep rates high in the past over inflation. PA is in the same 1.14 area now as then. It fell to 0.5633 back then
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,722
  • May 7, 2025 8:40am May 7, 2025 8:40am
Quoting LoneTrader1
EU Watching if trendline touches {image}
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  • #122,723
  • May 7, 2025 8:41am May 7, 2025 8:41am
A better picture.. The FED did put in some rules to help curve inflation
The Federal Reserve's current mandate, focusing on maximum employment and stable prices, was formalized in 1977 through an amendment to the Federal Reserve Act. This amendment clarified the Fed's dual mandate, shifting emphasis towards both employment and price stability.
Here's a more detailed breakdown:

  1. 1913:
    The Federal Reserve System was established by the Federal Reserve Act, but the specific focus on maximum employment and stable prices wasn't explicitly stated.
  2. 1977:
    Congress amended the Federal Reserve Act, explicitly directing the Fed to pursue maximum employment and stable prices, as well as moderate long-term interest rates. This amendment formalized the Fed's "dual mandate".
  3. 1977:
    The 1977 amendment clarified the roles of the Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in pursuing these goals.

For a deeper dive, you can explore resources like the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and the Federal Reserve Board's website for more information on the evolution of the Fed's dual mandate.

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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,724
  • May 7, 2025 8:43am May 7, 2025 8:43am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I lived through stagflation before. The unemployment rate was high. Inflation ran wild. The Prime interest rate hit over 20%. The interest rate was high to drive down inflation. If I recall it correctly inflation, and unemployment was both over 12%. That seems crazy now. Because since Volcker, the Fed has stayed on top of this. Before it got out of hand. China China China with a 145% tariff increase. Is 145% tax to Americans bottom line. American companies will raise their prices because that's what businesses do. That will cause people...
Very interesting that with stagflation USD went up in the past. I thought totally the opposite!
  • #122,725
  • May 7, 2025 8:47am May 7, 2025 8:47am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I lived through stagflation before. The unemployment rate was high. Inflation ran wild. The Prime interest rate hit over 20%. The interest rate was high to drive down inflation. If I recall it correctly inflation (12%), and unemployment (10%) . That seems crazy now. Because since Volcker, the Fed has stayed on top of this. Before it got out of hand. China China China with a 145% tariff increase. Is 145% tax to Americans bottom line. American companies will raise their prices because that's what businesses do. That will cause people to buy...
I was off some
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,726
  • Edited 9:15am May 7, 2025 9:04am | Edited 9:15am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Very interesting that with stagflation USD went up in the past. I thought totally the opposite!
It may do the opposite. Each situation is different. We dont know. Nobody knows!. If anyone tells you they know, they are lying. But if you need a brain operation. Don't go to your car mechanic. There are Noble prize winning economist out there. We do have some history to look at. Not just opinions from a guy who went bankrupt 6 times. If you want to go bankrupt, he is an expert on that subject.

To me usd should be about 1.00. By the way last year closed, the usd looked b/o bearish. PA is here because of the unstable leadership hurting the usd. Look what happened on his big tariff announcement day. The equity and bond markets were dropping hard at the same time. We almost lost it. Liquidity was drying up quickly. That's why he blinked with the 90 day tariff hold. Because demand for treasuries fell off the cliff. We nearly lost it all. This would of made 2008 a mild note in history. In 2008 they caught it. Over the weekend. This happened in a live market. Congress would have to approve a fix. They dont agree on anything. The markets would of crashed. Before congress could make any agreement, and take a vote in 2 houses. Than sticky fingers would had wanted all for him. We got lucky.In 90 days treasures may be in less demand. The Fed will step in.. It makes the period to get out longer. Because the fed will need to settle these later. The longer the Fed has to buy. The longer it last. Its fake.. your borrowing money from yourself (printing)
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,727
  • May 7, 2025 9:35am May 7, 2025 9:35am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It may do the opposite. Each situation is different. We dont know. Nobody knows!. If anyone tells you they know, they are lying. But if you need a brain operation. Don't go to your car mechanic. There are Noble prize winning economist out there. We do have some history to look at. Not just opinions from a guy who went bankrupt 6 times. If you want to go bankrupt, he is an expert on that subject. T (printing)
LOL
I already learnt from you many tricks and tips. You're one of the greatest traders I knew around FF. Thank you for all!
  • #122,728
  • May 7, 2025 10:20am May 7, 2025 10:20am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} LOL I already learnt from you many tricks and tips. You're one of the greatest traders I knew around FF. Thank you for all!
No! I suck some days. I just dont have a follower personality. The accepted expectation is 2 cuts this year. If that's the case, inflation should be in control. I'm seeing ships loaded 40%. So evidently the store buyers expect retail buyers to pay a little more, up to 140%. What can a little more be? Inflation was near 3%. That's above what the Fed wants already. Now let's add some to that. If the stores eat some, the manufactures eat some. I dont know where the extra cost falls. But I know it will be more than 0. Let's say 20 to 50% more as a guess. That adds to the 3%. I dont know how much because this all is a guess that =more. More = inflation above the 3%. That means a cut is less likely. This is based mostly on Chinese exports. But guess what. If all imports cost more. Than U.S. companies raise their prices. S any imported from China, if we make in the u.s. The usa price made product will rise. So no matter the country imported from. The minimal is a 10% rise. U.S. companies will raise that much too. So that brings inflation above the 3%. To me counting on my fingers and toes. It = more $. More $ = inflation. A cut just dont look right to me. 2 cuts even less. But I'm just a simple guy who never went bankrupt

Lets say the ships are loaded with 60% less product. Will the loss of supply make greater demand for what's available? i dont know. If shelves are near empty. A retailor may raise the price. At least that happens in a free market. The old supply demand thing. If so that can be inflationary too. Remember the supply chain thing over Covid or a stuck ship? That was inflationary. Empty shelves can be too. but wtf do i know
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,729
  • May 7, 2025 10:38am May 7, 2025 10:38am
The eu may run higher like it has. If inflation favors no cut, or even a raise. Pa on the eu has already risen 13.7% unpresidented (in 60 day). A move down could have a lot of power.
The Gu went up 11.1% low to high this year.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,730
  • May 7, 2025 10:42am May 7, 2025 10:42am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I been trading both ways. Its going to break out.. When and direction is the big question.. I see attraction to 1341 I see R anywhere now into the 140x area for a wick.. i'm focuses on staying sustained below 1367. -1278 and the sos for my short to run. I keep taking this trade and closing it. I have been lucky it comes back in the upper range.
Finally hit 1341
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,731
  • Edited 11:55am May 7, 2025 11:34am | Edited 11:55am
Quoting mars1
Has anyone got an analysis on gold now that india attacked Pakistan? Shouldn't this push gold up?
In 1980 it spiked to 873.. a few years later it was down over 60%. 21 years later it was down 71% We had a war start in 2001.. it was 254$ that year at the low.
The Iraq war ended 2015. Gold dropped 45%. I suspect another drop (new president) will come,wash rinse repeat
Another 45% drop hits 1900 area, 70% more. Gold does nothing but require security. Its for ancient times, it dont travel well in a spaceship to Mars. WTF do i know? I never snorted coke or got my nipples pierced. But if i did, I may see things different
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,732
  • May 7, 2025 12:07pm May 7, 2025 12:07pm
I saw a gold commercial the guy was comparing a bar of gold to houses and inflation. 1 bar back whenever could buy a nice home. Today the same bar could buy 2 or 3 decent homes. I got a bias.. I'm a real-estate guy. I could have lived (*0r rented ) in the first home for 30 years (You gotta live somewhere). In a decent neighborhood the same home today maybe worth less than the bar. But by rental income or living expense add $. Add the tax breaks.. Thats put me well ahead of gold. Just saying.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,733
  • May 7, 2025 12:27pm May 7, 2025 12:27pm
Quoting mars1
Has anyone got an analysis on gold now that india attacked Pakistan? Shouldn't this push gold up?
The only analysis that I do is technical analysis. That and the COT report. This weeks settlement should answer many questionns. On the COT report Large traders are net long and so am I. Good luck.
  • #122,734
  • May 7, 2025 12:28pm May 7, 2025 12:28pm
less than 1 h. The presser can be volatile. Does anyone remember the ECB girl? I miss the good old days
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Notice security fondles her
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,735
  • May 7, 2025 12:30pm May 7, 2025 12:30pm
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} The only analysis that I do is technical analysis. That and the COT report. This weeks settlement should answer many questionns. On the COT report Large traders are net long and so am I. Good luck.
thank you
  • #122,736
  • May 7, 2025 12:31pm May 7, 2025 12:31pm
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} The only analysis that I do is technical analysis. That and the COT report. This weeks settlement should answer many questionns. On the COT report Large traders are net long and so am I. Good luck.
Yes not to piss in the pool. Are institutions larger? I'm just saying there is always someone on the other side of any trade. 2 tading opposite sides for their own reason. One thinking they are smarter than the other. Thats trading. Institutions dont like losing either.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,737
  • Edited 1:08pm May 7, 2025 12:52pm | Edited 1:08pm
Quoting FT.Trader
{quote} The only analysis that I do is technical analysis. That and the COT report. This weeks settlement should answer many questionns. On the COT report Large traders are net long and so am I. Good luck.
I see it like this. The larger here are mostly short. But these guys get it wrong too.

No fireworks
January 29, 2025
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For release at 2:00 p.m. EST

  1. Share

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recent months, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Alberto G. Musalem; Jeffrey R. Schmid; and Christopher J. Waller.
For media inquiries, please email [email protected] or call 202-452-2955.
Implementation Note issued January 29, 2025
Last Update: January 29, 2025

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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,738
  • May 7, 2025 1:13pm May 7, 2025 1:13pm
Presser coming in 15..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,739
  • May 7, 2025 2:34pm May 7, 2025 2:34pm
Still surprised US Markets get no corrections. (Stocks)
And EUR so high, probably people are still selling USD because of fear of recession and other problems.

At least we are not going up.
Added to shorts again but they can break higher anticipating worse problems.

Gold 3360 S
E/U big S 1.127
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,740
  • May 7, 2025 2:36pm May 7, 2025 2:36pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} *cancel this setup maybe 1306 ares L to tp 1341, if a sign comes Maybe a short 1381 area tp 1341 1306 or 1281 sustained running from 1341 may b/o.
Near textbook .. Now can it break and sustain below 1306?
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