Market Puzzles & Riddles...

Lately, I have quite a number of puzzles & riddles to digest as I read the markets headlines. So, these are the 3 major ones:

1. GBPUSD related stories: What could be the most possible factor that trigger the sell-off for GBP?
2. The carry-trades stories: Which pairs will get the most lasting effect when the unwinding carry-trades trigger?
3. The PBOC / RMB stories: What actions will they take that may give the market most shocking scenario?
4. Iran the evergreen nuke issue: On alert mode?

In general, no countries seems to like a high valued currencies coz now we are at the globalization era. But, at the same time, inflation is the main concern and raising interest rate seems to be the only possible solution to counter the effect.Does the "market" still favour a strong dollar? The above 3 stories are inter-related and it depends when and how the sequence of events will take place I guess...

Anyone interested to shed some light here? This newbie have not experienced (yet) any of those mega market nostalgia like the gbp sell-off, etc...

I find this commentary is pretty good about Yen carry-trades.

2008 MPS for some central banks. The original source are as hyperlink below:

1. FEB
2. BOE
3. ECB
4. SNB
5. RBA
6. RBNZ
7. BOC
8. BOJ

how usefull info you can find in this 2 posts. thank you

GBPUSD related stories: What could be the most possible factor that trigger the sell-off for GBP?

maybe some very bullish quotes from Bernanke & Co. that the economy is running perfect;

Hiya TurtleOnion!
Warning: I'm gonna be mean for this post

A bearish outside bar on weekly might trigger a fresh bout of selling come next week, before that a head and shoulders formation on 1h/4h was broken to bring on the descent to 2.0200. Elliot Wavers would say there was an abc off the high with a strong C.


USDCHF and USDJPY are the "cores", all other related (GBP, AUD, NZD) are merely the "second half" to them. The CHF and JPY are the borrowed out cores, the others the Yielders. Carry moves will occur strongest on the heavily invested onces => highest differentials, but obviously everything will be synched. You can't have a single pair drop off alone without the core tagging along imho.
Also - all pairs have their own relation. 300 GBJPY pips might be less profit than 180 USDJPY pips simply due to a 3x larger stop size required and bigger spread. People ALWAYS go for the most pips instead of the biggest profit oddly. They're not the same. Of course the outperformer can also be the other way around under certain conditions

Hike the interest on the Yuan by 20%
(kidding)

Doesn't really matter to me. News are background noise to what happens on the chart itself in technical terms.

Basically - as long as the chart says it's weak and falling you stay biased short, if it says it's over and goes bullish you look to go long...



I am SO happy I don't need to think about what minister says what when where and why


Sorry if this wasn't what you wanted to hear, I just thought I'd give a quick TA spoilsport opinion ;p

No offense =)

Hi SeekingLight, I enjoy reading your posts. No worries of being mean & nasty to my posts. Being a newbie, I've "collected" a good amount of practical knowledge esp on trading experiences from FF members. And I hope someday I will have something more to share in return.

a technical aproach to a fundamental problem ). nice job

Thanks for the links Turtle.

The one for the FED needs to be corrected.

KudzuFX, not at all. The FEB link I've corrected, thanks.

Truely, SeekingLight has shed light on this issue . I'm learning to take this approach when dealing with my current puzzles, though now I still struggle to have a good discipline when comes to chart reading but getting better each day even with little progress as 0.001%. I guess patience is the key here.

So far I only have 2 key events which I'm aware of:

1. Beijing Olympic (from Aug 8 till Aug 24);

1. US Presidential Election (on Nov 4).

Is there any others that you know and like to add on to the list?

I wonder what is the percentage or ratios for these 3 respective currencies: USD Bonds, GBP Bonds & EUR Bonds in comparison to the total bond market value. Will those ratios come close or correlated to the foreign exchange reserves held by various central banks? Appreciate your help to TurtleOnion for solving another puzzles...

p.s: meanwhile I will keep google and see is there any info that I'm looking for... will post it here once I got the related info... not quite sure what I'm looking for now and thus a vague question...

Info found from this link:http://www.bondheads.com/the_Fed.htm

In summary:
92-95: Total 300BP rise in 30 months
95-96: Total 75 BP lower in 11 months
97: Total 25 BP rise in 14 months
98: Total 75 BP lower in 20 months
98-00: Total 175 BP lower in 17 months
01-03: Total 550 BP lower in 37 months
03-06: Total 300 BP rise in 36 months
07-? : Total ? BP lower in ? months

The major themes for 2007 mostly on the economic front... but for 2008 could be abit different... i smell political tension could be the driving force...my call for fed rate is below 3%... will split the year into 2 sessions...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008
http://www.bondheads.com/the_Fed.htm

Some articles for me to digest the lines between...puzzles & riddles...
George Soros view:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/24f73610-c...077b07658.html
Non-conventional market view:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9235.htm

Tks TurtleOnion, if you have some more statistics or sites about , share with us.


Best Regards,
Marcelo Marques

Anyone has a clue what is the rough or average daily transacted value (in USD) for the markets below:

 

1. Bond Futures Market (the most active traded)
2. Equities Spot & Index Futures Market (S&P 500, FTSE, Nikkei225, Hang Seng)
3. Commodities Futures Market (Gold, Crude Oil, Copper)
4. Forex Market (the majors)

I google but can't find any matching results...

If not possible to have the value, maybe in ratio term...base on your experience and/or knowledge... what could be the ratio for each market?

1. US Bond market avg daily turnover is approx 1 trillion USD, mostly in the 10yr treasury, second runner up is the 30yr treasury.
3. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange annual turnover is ~330 Trillion USD and this includes commodity futures. This figure is correct for 2004 and probably in 2007 has increased A LOT due to the strong up trends in metals and commodities.
4. The majors make up most of the daily turnover in foreign exchange, 10% of which is done through the futures market. >3 Trillion USD