The Swamp | Page 6130 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread
Attachments: The Swamp
Exit Attachments

The Swamp

  • #122,581
  • Apr 30, 2025 3:35pm Apr 30, 2025 3:35pm
Quoting LoneTrader1
SPX500 {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20250501-013448.jpg Size: 206 KB
  • #122,582
  • Apr 30, 2025 3:44pm Apr 30, 2025 3:44pm
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} {image}
Nas100
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20250501-014124.jpg Size: 189 KB
  • #122,583
  • Apr 30, 2025 8:10pm Apr 30, 2025 8:10pm
I dont know what NFP will do or be.
Short term the usd can gain. But not for good reasons.

U.S. Economy & USD Outlook (April 2025) – Simple Summary
1. GDP Missed Estimates (Again)
Advanced GDP was weaker than forecast for the third straight quarter.That usually signals slower growth ahead.
2. Tariffs + Trade Deficit
New/expected tariffs are keeping inflation higher.
U.S. buyers are cutting orders from China ahead of Christmas — ships are arriving less full.
That means less supply, which could push prices up again.
3. Jobs & Inflation Still High (tomorrow NFP can fuel a large move) If its better than expected. The Fed has less reason to cut. Even if expected
Because jobs are strong and inflation is sticky, the Fed isn’t ready to cut rates yet.
Until then, the USD could stay strong.
4. Global Impact of a U.S. Recession
A U.S. slowdown can drag down the global economy, hit commodity prices, and cause risk-off moves in global markets.
At first, that may strengthen the USD (safe-haven buying), but later the Fed might cut rates, which could weaken USD.
5. Bond Market Could Change It All
If bonds start pricing in aggressive Fed cuts, USD could fall faster.
For now though, bond yields are holding up.
6. Key EUR/USD Level: 1.0802
This is the Quarterly Last Close level.
If EUR/USD approaches this, watch for support or reversal, or a clean breakdown if bearish momentum builds.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,584
  • Apr 30, 2025 8:25pm Apr 30, 2025 8:25pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Global Impact of U.S. Recession Slower global growth: The U.S. is the world’s largest economy and a major consumer of global exports. A recession would reduce demand for goods from countries like China, Germany, Japan, and emerging markets. Commodity price decline: A slowdown in U.S. activity could reduce demand for oil, copper, and other key commodities, hurting exporters like Brazil, Canada, and Australia. Financial results: U.S. markets are deeply connected with global capital flows. A recession would trigger risk-off sentiment, tighter...
I didnt know if this short term would drop the eu with bad u.s. news. But the way things sit. Employment is not bad, and high inflation. The FED has its hands tied on cutting rates.. Maybe a bad employment number could change this. But inflation is still looking to rise. The oil price dropping helps with inflation. But its dropping on a bad economy news. Nothing here looks good. The employment numbers eventually should spoil. When, and when will the FED be able to act? Until,, the eu may make it to 1.0802ish
That qdp number has been right for 50+ years. Its pointing to a recession. So maybe after this drop, it will rises again. Whenever the Fed can cut, or the outlook looks like the FED will cut. The FED mandate is full employment and low inflation. Its near impossible for the fed to cut atm
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,585
  • Apr 30, 2025 8:39pm Apr 30, 2025 8:39pm
I dont know if eu will get back to 1368. 1345ish can resist. below 1345 leans bearish b/o.. As long as sustained below.. But one never can overlook a 1368 trip
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,586
  • May 1, 2025 2:18am May 1, 2025 2:18am
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} Au still hasn't broken that trendline, A possible head fake now a retracement to R {image} {image}
Monthly closed below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDMonthly.png Size: 11 KB
  • #122,587
  • May 1, 2025 2:39am May 1, 2025 2:39am
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} If DXY wants to bounce this is good enough level to do it. {image}
Monthly same...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DXY_2025-05-01_12-38-06.png Size: 29 KB
  • #122,588
  • May 1, 2025 2:43am May 1, 2025 2:43am
Quoting LoneTrader1
{quote} Monthly same... {image}
Daily looks like inverse H & S
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DXY_2025-05-01_12-42-32.png Size: 17 KB
  • #122,589
  • May 1, 2025 4:53am May 1, 2025 4:53am
Quoting gatorinla
I dont know if eu will get back to 1368. 1345ish can resist. below 1345 leans bearish b/o.. As long as sustained below.. But one never can overlook a 1368 trip
I was wrong yesterday on both the euro and gold.
That's how it is. Let's say the market is always right.
Anyway, both EUR and gold broke through some important support levels.
And they were probably very crowded trades, and still are.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,590
  • May 1, 2025 7:12am May 1, 2025 7:12am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I was wrong yesterday on both the euro and gold. That's how it is. Let's say the market is always right. Anyway, both EUR and gold broke through some important support levels. And they were probably very crowded trades, and still are.
1.132 support EUR/USD
1.134 R E/U

Gold 3133 S
Gold 3255 R

Before news. maybe e get the same thing as yesterday. Bad economic data than very good earnings like yesterday and reverse but I guess everybody is thinking of the same thing
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,591
  • May 1, 2025 7:38am May 1, 2025 7:38am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} 1.132 support EUR/USD 1.134 R E/U Gold 3133 S Gold 3255 R Before news. maybe e get the same thing as yesterday. Bad economic data than very good earnings like yesterday and reverse but I guess everybody is thinking of the same thing
Traders already buying the dip in US EQ. So everybody is doing the same thing.
They will do it on ISM. with the idea that very good earnings on AAPL and AMZN.

Than sell before NFP and the opposite for EUR and GOld.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,592
  • Edited 8:28am May 1, 2025 8:18am | Edited 8:28am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I was wrong yesterday on both the euro and gold. That's how it is. Let's say the market is always right. Anyway, both EUR and gold broke through some important support levels. And they were probably very crowded trades, and still are.
I have a day indication the high was a short term high minimal 7 trading days ago. The week is still neutral, but right on the edge leaning bearish. But a week close is needed. The 4h atm being bullish. So we may test 1349 or 1368 is what i see. But the trade to get there was already missed. So if it gets there. i will look for a short sign. But who knows. The idiot can post something. Like i said before the latest GDP news, he will blame someone else always. So Powell may get a mean tweet. The best economy, with the lowest unemployment in my lifetime. Is looking to be gone with a mother of a recession, empty shelves and stagflation. It's almost as stupid as taking a deadly virus advice from a Radiologist , or a eye doctor. Who in their right mind, not on crack, would do that? Apparently 1/3 of us would. I peed on a spark plug before. But didnt expect it would kill me. We do stupid things. But most dont kill us
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,593
  • May 1, 2025 8:52am May 1, 2025 8:52am
You never know about the run toward LC. I try to wait for it. i closed the short near 1.13 anticipating a run to 1349 (if able to break) to 67. But you never can tell. There is 1h 10m left. pa at 1317. 1367 dont look doable in that time atm. 50 pips look too far.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,594
  • May 1, 2025 10:29am May 1, 2025 10:29am
The 10 yr although it has a 6h green candle. it appears treasuries are behaving. Since the 90 day pause news. Void if lets out a brain fart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 18 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,595
  • May 1, 2025 12:04pm May 1, 2025 12:04pm
140% increase in fireworks prices will dim July 4th shows.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,596
  • May 1, 2025 12:13pm May 1, 2025 12:13pm
Its still leaning bearish to me. But bears have yet to make a adr run. Possible R 1328/29ish, or 1345/46. Pa atm is below both on the bearish sise. I dont see things suggesting it will reach these. If there, it may be a place to consider shorting. I dont have a reason to long atm.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,597
  • May 1, 2025 2:19pm May 1, 2025 2:19pm
Quoting gatorinla
Its still leaning bearish to me. But bears have yet to make a adr run. Possible R 1328/29ish, or 1345/46. Pa atm is below both on the bearish sise. I dont see things suggesting it will reach these. If there, it may be a place to consider shorting. I dont have a reason to long atm.
I think Market is anticipating good earnings tonight AAPL and AMZN
And then some trade announcements

On the other hand economic data is weak many will wait for NFP than trade it just to be out of the way.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,598
  • May 1, 2025 2:24pm May 1, 2025 2:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
Its still leaning bearish to me. But bears have yet to make a adr run. Possible R 1328/29ish, or 1345/46. Pa atm is below both on the bearish sise. I dont see things suggesting it will reach these. If there, it may be a place to consider shorting. I dont have a reason to long atm.
I got some diverges pointing up now.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,599
  • May 1, 2025 2:47pm May 1, 2025 2:47pm
EU just an interesting view...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 19 KB
  • #122,600
  • May 1, 2025 3:15pm May 1, 2025 3:15pm
people are already cutting back. Back to Covid sales 2020.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/01/mcdo...-earnings.html
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 14 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
24 traders viewing now