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  • #12,541
  • May 1, 2025 12:47am May 1, 2025 12:47am
May is in, have a happy one!

Monthly pivot points!
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  • #12,542
  • Edited 3:29am May 1, 2025 3:11am | Edited 3:29am
Posted this yesterday. Be weary of the 3 daily sell days, followed by a push up. This is not a certainty, only a probability. As in trading it's all probabilities, & patterns forming with PA. I mentioned yesterday we may hit 1.132 below or first before any push up & we sure did.

I entered my first buy in ages on the M5 chart - this is how my trade looked.It was a quick one to test the area with minimal risk.

I am not looking for a sell in this area yet. We have a potential pattern forming on daily & upside is still in play if the market agrees on the support/price action pattern.

My bearish range target ( Intra-day buyers zone ) is about 40-50 pips between 1.124-1.1285 ( 1.124 would clear a lot of liquidity) The USD data has not looked to clean last few days, so it could be dropping for a final push up before fully exhausting on the daily & starting a reversal. We shall see if the pattern unfolds.

My analyses is on the HTF H4 & Daily so it takes time to develop. ANYTHING can happen every 15 minutes to change your bias lol
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If 95% Of Traders Fail, Then Why Are You Doing The Same Thing They Are.
  • #12,543
  • May 1, 2025 3:31am May 1, 2025 3:31am
Quoting Fxgfitking
Posted this yesterday. Be weary of the 3 daily sell candles, followed by a push up. This is not a certainty, only a probability. As in trading it's all probabilities, & patterns forming with PA. I mentioned yesterday we may hit 1.132 below or first before any push up & we sure did. I entered my first buy in ages on the M5 chart - this is how my trade looked.It was a quick one to test the area with minimal risk. I am not looking for a sell in this area yet. We have a potential pattern forming on daily & upside is still in play if the market agrees...
, The range is still bullish, so price needs to find fuel on the lower side, I don't see any HTF structural change right now, closed 75% PDC 133, maybe it will be a short day,
'In the clearing stands a boxer And a fighter by his trade..'
  • #12,544
  • May 1, 2025 4:48am May 1, 2025 4:48am
Quoting abdulrahmon2
{quote} I'm enjoying the EU analysis conversations. As someone who focuses on intraday trading, I'd appreciate the opportunity to share my thoughts - is that okay?"
Why not this is a forum for all! You can!
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  • #12,545
  • May 1, 2025 5:15am May 1, 2025 5:15am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
The EUR/USD broke below 1.1307 after dipping below the 1.1329 support level and is now testing 1.1300. A successful break below this level will open the way for 1.1264 and potentially lower to the 1.1255 S1 weekly support - see the 4 hour chart. If the pair rises above the 1.1331 high from the Asian session, it could target 1.1375 or test the downward trendline. Green pips! Daily volatility (range) 74 pips Option expiries for Thursday: 1.1270 (EU1.08b), 1.1500 (EU1.04b), 1.0000 (EU878.5m) Source: financialjuice.com...
The 4 hours candle closed back above 1.1300/07 not the best for the bear but still below resistance so we must give it some time! Untill then bulls may try to shift the momentum above 1.1331 so watching until the news!
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  • #12,546
  • May 1, 2025 6:06am May 1, 2025 6:06am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} The 4 hours candle closed back above 1.1300/07 not the best for the bear but still below resistance so we must give it some time! Untill then bulls may try to shift the momentum above 1.1331 so watching until the news!
might run back to 134x or even 136x
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #12,547
  • May 1, 2025 6:14am May 1, 2025 6:14am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} The 4 hours candle closed back above 1.1300/07 not the best for the bear but still below resistance so we must give it some time! Untill then bulls may try to shift the momentum above 1.1331 so watching until the news!
I think most of the natural ways to analyze the market may not work correctly due to the bad situation we are currently in, related to unexpected events such as Trump news and tariffs.
https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-tec...il-2025/227574
I might be wrong, though.
  • #12,548
  • May 1, 2025 6:47am May 1, 2025 6:47am
Quoting e3sarX
{quote} I think most of the natural ways to analyze the market may not work correctly due to the bad situation we are currently in, related to unexpected events such as Trump news and tariffs. https://www.dailyforex.com/forex-tec...il-2025/227574 I might be wrong, though.
A correction might take longer time to develop and until something happens outside a range Trump will continue the same rhetoric. But we learn what moved the market later always after a move in the price happened so good technical skills and money management are required.
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  • #12,549
  • May 1, 2025 7:37am May 1, 2025 7:37am
Price should continue up but watch! One more new left in about 1 and a half hour - ISM Manufacturing PMI

..so price may go back and forth until a higher target hit and price consolidates or reverses depending on what's happening on news feeds too.

After 1.1340 bulls are weak but 1.1275/64 might hold yet so the break below 1.1300 isn't so clear yet until that last zone gets out of the way for the bears.

Until then and if, bulls might return inside the range again.
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  • #12,550
  • May 1, 2025 11:04am May 1, 2025 11:04am
The EUR/USD pair appears increasingly bearish each day, driven by expectations that the U.S. will secure multiple trade deals, strengthening its economy. For now, the market is in a waiting game ahead of tomorrow’s NFP Payrolls report, with forecasts pointing to a weaker number. The 1.1255 level seems more achievable now than it did this morning. Keep selling positions tight, as a bounce could occur at any time.

Have a great rest of the day!
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  • #12,551
  • May 1, 2025 8:21pm May 1, 2025 8:21pm
TL bearish, Just Sell entry

Hide My Buy button, for green pips
Holy Betting Grail strategy
  • #12,552
  • May 1, 2025 10:46pm May 1, 2025 10:46pm
The EUR/USD traded below 1.1300 after bouncing from the 1.1275/64 support zone yesterday but is now recovering from the drop following US news, approaching 1.1315, a few pips below the 1.1340 resistance level and yesterday's high. The latter should hold for further consolidation before news impacts the market, but a break above might lead to an advance toward the next resistance level around 1.1375.


Green pips!

Daily volatility (range) 73 pips

Option expiries for Friday: 1.1150 (EU901.7m), 1.1250 (EU810m), 1.0900 (EU776.4m) Source: financialjuice.com

Significant news - US Nonfarm Payrolls & US Factory Orders

4H
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  • #12,553
  • May 1, 2025 11:54pm May 1, 2025 11:54pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
The EUR/USD traded below 1.1300 after bouncing from the 1.1275/64 support zone yesterday but is now recovering from the drop following US news, approaching 1.1315, a few pips below the 1.1340 resistance level and yesterday's high. The latter should hold for further consolidation before news impacts the market, but a break above might lead to an advance toward the next resistance level around 1.1375. Green pips! Daily volatility (range) 73 pips Option expiries for Friday: 1.1150 (EU901.7m), 1.1250 (EU810m), 1.0900...
i have a buy limit at 1.1265 which didnt get triggered because of spread, its 23.5fib level. If we get there again not sure if i will buy! Mayb 125x.

i think while in that downward channel, will just sell every spikes, buy will only be scalping only until 104x is reached.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #12,554
  • May 1, 2025 11:59pm May 1, 2025 11:59pm
Quoting johncen
Just thinking out loud here…. Still a long way to go, and fundamentally tariff war / weak dollar still the main topic. But this has been going on for almost 2 months now (bull run for over 1,300 pips already this year) how long can it last or at some point there will be a retracement/profit taking to happen if we are to form a temp top here, ideal situation to be go down here (only if and we need confirmation) to retest 127x area. Then potentially form a right shoulder to see if we can get to 1050 area (38.2% fib level) for another leg up for the...
my post back on 22 apr, h&s is now complete.

nfp tonight, adp came back lower than expected same as gdp, if we get lower than expected nfp, is that good for dollar or bad for dollar?
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #12,555
  • May 2, 2025 12:21am May 2, 2025 12:21am
Quoting johncen
{quote} my post back on 22 apr, h&s is now complete. nfp tonight, adp came back lower than expected same as gdp, if we get lower than expected nfp, is that good for dollar or bad for dollar?
Not sure! All the week eu is dropping after US news, so need caution buying a, not so cool NFP!

A big miss, should weaken the dollar.
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  • #12,556
  • May 2, 2025 12:51am May 2, 2025 12:51am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Not sure! All the week eu is dropping after US news, so need caution buying a, not so cool NFP! A big miss, should weaken the dollar.
yea but lately bad us data seems supporting the dollars instead so common sense is no longer applicable here.

we have to be prepared, it simply can go either direction
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #12,557
  • May 2, 2025 1:13am May 2, 2025 1:13am
Quoting johncen
{quote} yea but lately bad us data seems supporting the dollars instead so common sense is no longer applicable here. we have to be prepared, it simply can go either direction
Its also Friday! Highs and lows may taken out.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #12,558
  • May 2, 2025 3:03am May 2, 2025 3:03am
Quoting johncen
{quote} yea but lately bad us data seems supporting the dollars instead so common sense is no longer applicable here. we have to be prepared, it simply can go either direction
End of month flows were very supportive of USD buying by banks/institutions due to balance of positions. We may be watching €uro resume the uptrend.
  • #12,559
  • May 2, 2025 3:40am May 2, 2025 3:40am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Not sure! All the week eu is dropping after US news, so need caution buying a, not so cool NFP! A big miss, should weaken the dollar.
Yeah, with that kind of NFP, I’m possibly eyeing an entry if price takes out the supply above. if I could see a lower timeframe confirmation I prefer , could set up a short term opportunity

// Your's truly
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  • #12,560
  • May 2, 2025 4:50am May 2, 2025 4:50am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} Its also Friday! Highs and lows may taken out.
bulls in charge the whole day, let see if this is the pump before the dump during usual nfp or the return of the bull.

at critical level now 1350-60
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
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