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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #12,681
  • Aug 3, 2007 3:05pm Aug 3, 2007 3:05pm
Just started my (3 week) vacation @ noon and intend to start trading LIVE as of SUNDAY (MA-MA-MIA!)

Just took what will be my last demo-trade about 2 hours ago. Shorted @ 242.48 at 14:08 EST.

Those long red candles tend to give me confidence for my fresh start next week (+171 pips about 2 hours) !?!?!?!?! Too bad I didn't start THIS AFTERNOON for real LOL

Anyways, this was my first post so hi eveyone.

Zoran, where d'you think it'll stop??
  • #12,682
  • Aug 3, 2007 3:08pm Aug 3, 2007 3:08pm
Quoting karmostaji
this support you are talking about might hold for a little while until this beast retraces from this downward move, I see 241.00 next, if broken 40.35 and maximum it may go is 39.70

To each his own, good luck
1st target reached

next for coming week 240.35
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #12,683
  • Aug 3, 2007 3:56pm Aug 3, 2007 3:56pm
Just got back to check my trade and it didn't reach target.

The pattern was bearish and instead of reversing at the 161.8 level it did so at the 88.6 level (which is more of a Gartley). Stops were placed just below the B point when the CD leg broke above it so 20 pips profit on each entry (out of a possible 70). Not the ideal result but profitable none the less.

I have attached a chart. The bear target (which I wasn't around to trade) reached the 127% so from here I would expect a retrace (perhaps to 241.10 or maybe a bit higher) before further falls.

Z
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GUPPY8.jpg Size: 79 KB
  • #12,684
  • Aug 3, 2007 3:59pm Aug 3, 2007 3:59pm
My trailing stop was hit @ 241 at 16:11 (+148 pips) and then I did a stupid thing. Got angry because the stop hit because of a little spike, so I went in again, shorted 240.72 at 16:22 and then manually stopped myself out a few minutes ago at 16:50 @ 241.02 (-30 pips) And of course now it's going down again (3 minutes to go to end of week).

Anyways, still learning..........

I was just wondering. My broker closes at 17h EST on Fridays, but I'm also demoing with FXCM and I noticed they shut down at 15h EST. Is this a problem for anyone, having their broker closing ahead of the official close?
  • #12,685
  • Aug 3, 2007 5:12pm Aug 3, 2007 5:12pm
Quoting Qpip
Anyways, still learning..........
Hi Qpip

Here is some friendly advice.

Know where to enter, where to place your stop and know your target. Then let money management take care of the rest.

Don't trade on hope and know that this game is all about probabilities.

If that doesn't make sense, then stick to a demo account and read some good books on trading.

Z
  • #12,686
  • Aug 3, 2007 5:37pm Aug 3, 2007 5:37pm
I posted this Monthly Chart a couple weeks back. It still intrigues me. Notice whenever the RSI breaches 70 a retracement is imminent. It happens about every 8 to 10 years; 1980, 1990, 1998 and already here in February of 2007. Is there a further drop to come in the months ahead, perhaps even a reversal? Yes, carry trades are popular, but remember there is still more money to be made in actual pips than in interest in any trade. RSI has broken back down under 70 on this chart. Historically trends have reversed under these kinds of circumstances. However, the market doesn't necessarily care about history, it cares about right now. I'd be interested in any thoughts or comments on this chart from either a fundamental or technical point of view.

M2B
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy monthly.jpg Size: 32 KB
  • #12,687
  • Aug 3, 2007 6:32pm Aug 3, 2007 6:32pm
Excellent observation! I was looking at this monthly not too long ago and noticed a level at 249.17 back in August 1992. Based on that and previous action, it seemed plausible that a reversal with large implications was nearing. I called a large fall (on another site) at around that level. The resistance fell just below 249.00 for a week and a half that proved a great (and very profitable) wall to short scalp from and then it broke up to just over 251.00 (which is our recent high).

So from our high at 251.09, there is a possibility that this may now fall to somewhere around 221.00 (based on historical data). That's about 3000 pips of which we have currently seen over 1200 and should shake out a few carry traders! It's a possibility only and is not set in stone, but there is a scope there to trade within.

Z



Quoting my2buoys
I posted this Monthly Chart a couple weeks back. It still intrigues me. Notice whenever the RSI breaches 70 a retracement is imminent. It happens about every 8 to 10 years; 1980, 1990, 1998 and already here in February of 2007. Is there a further drop to come in the months ahead, perhaps even a reversal? Yes, carry trades are popular, but remember there is still more money to be made in actual pips than in interest in any trade. RSI has broken back down under 70 on this chart. Historically trends have reversed under these kinds of circumstances. However, the market doesn't necessarily care about history, it cares about right now. I'd be interested in any thoughts or comments on this chart from either a fundamental or technical point of view.

M2B
  • #12,688
  • Aug 3, 2007 11:35pm Aug 3, 2007 11:35pm
Hi everyone,

I have a suggestion which I believe would enhance the value of this thread....

Whenever any of us wants to post a live trade or recommend an entry price level or range, why not briefly mention the bases of such trade/ recommendation in the form of:

"Analysis time frame, trade @ entry price, TP and SL + indicators/ reasons"

e.g. "Daily Chart, Short @ 242.73 (32.8 Fibo + TRL), TP @ 241.00 (round number + recent support line), SL @ 243.10 (current week's high/ retracement level)"

ofcourse that's just an example on my kind of indicators; anything goes be it MA's, MACD, oscillators, bands, crossovers, candlesticks, price patterns/ formations, Elliot wave, etc..

This way, the value of ideas, experiences and learning opportunities will be maximized rather than being partially shared or fragmented across the discussion and we can lead a much more relevany, detailed and specific discussion.

Please do not misunderstand me for trying to restrict the "freedom of posting" by setting rules but I truly think that would be more helpful and useful to all.

I am definite that similar analysis can be conculded from each time we say "I believe, think, feel, expect or my hunch, expectation, prophecy".

Comments and inputrs are welcomed
  • #12,689
  • Aug 4, 2007 2:52am Aug 4, 2007 2:52am
I'm going to post 3 charts that I trade with and explain what I see on each TF

Daily:

  1. Fibonacci Retracement levels (221.05 to 251.07)

  1. 5 Trendlines drawn (2 are weekly, 3 daily)

As you can see in the chart, we are in a nice triangle.. the last candle closed as a bearish engulfing which indicates strong bearish movement. Based on the daily chart, next targets might be 239.60 and 236.05


http://img151.imageshack.us/img151/1833/gjsb2.gif



4H chart:

  1. Fibonacci Retracement levels (251.07 to 237.58)

You can see on the chart the price touched the 38.2% fibo level twice and fell, it couldn't break it. It's very close to it's 23.6% fibo (240.70), it will be easy to break as you see price has cut through it before several times.

http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/5355/gjst6.gif


1H chart:

  1. Fibonacci Retracement levels (237.58 to 243.11)

After reaching 243.11, we got stuck in a boring range for hours, then price penetrated the 23.6% fibo but it came up again, the second attempt it took out the 23.6 and 38.2 fibo, then the market closed for the week
The 61.8 fibo of this last bull run and the daily 38.2 fibo are very close to each other, we might have good support there and it might take a little while till it breaks it.

http://img245.imageshack.us/img245/577/gjcz2.gif

Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #12,690
  • Aug 4, 2007 6:51am Aug 4, 2007 6:51am
My chart is 17 pips away from the real price on my station. I've seen ppl with at least 12.

Should we expect a gap at opening?

I'm no gap master but, you guys try to cover it or something right?

The reason i ask is because i'm holding a short in this pair. I locked on profit and i went out without target. I got home to late to close it but now im seeing potential profit increase without risk and i want to hold it until clear rebound.

The problem is that gap traders might eat me a few pips.

Should i really care about this gap thing?
  • #12,691
  • Aug 4, 2007 7:26am Aug 4, 2007 7:26am
Thanks Karmostaji for sharing your analysis details and being the first to positively respond
  • #12,692
  • Aug 4, 2007 7:58am Aug 4, 2007 7:58am
I usually trade small mini lots...5-10...Please offer any advice you can give on stops. My goal is to intraday trade using the 2 hour, 15 minute and 5 minute charts. I've heard one can use the 5 min. chart with success due to its great moves...is 50 pips enough space for this to breathe? Thanks...
  • #12,693
  • Aug 4, 2007 8:24am Aug 4, 2007 8:24am
Quoting joiedevivre
I usually trade small mini lots...5-10...Please offer any advice you can give on stops. My goal is to intraday trade using the 2 hour, 15 minute and 5 minute charts. I've heard one can use the 5 min. chart with success due to its great moves...is 50 pips enough space for this to breathe? Thanks...

yes. u can if u capture rite move. but take profit at every 100pip as tis pair can ping pong here n there... like for nw, i will short till 237. if it nvr break 237, i'm gonna long at 237 wit 50pip stop loss. kp buy n sell, buy n sell... i hope i helped u.
  • #12,694
  • Aug 4, 2007 8:40am Aug 4, 2007 8:40am
Quoting karmostaji
I'm going to post 3 charts that I trade with and explain what I see on each TF

Daily:

  1. Fibonacci Retracement levels (221.05 to 251.07)

  1. 5 Trendlines drawn (2 are weekly, 3 daily)

As you can see in the chart, we are in a nice triangle.. the last candle closed as a bearish engulfing which indicates strong bearish movement. Based on the daily chart, next targets might be 239.60 and 236.05


M2B

http://img151.imageshack.us/img151/1833/gjsb2.gif



4H chart:

  1. Fibonacci Retracement levels (251.07 to 237.58)

You can see on the chart the price touched the 38.2% fibo level twice and fell, it couldn't break it. It's very close to it's 23.6% fibo (240.70), it will be easy to break as you see price has cut through it before several times.

http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/5355/gjst6.gif


1H chart:

  1. Fibonacci Retracement levels (237.58 to 243.11)

After reaching 243.11, we got stuck in a boring range for hours, then price penetrated the 23.6% fibo but it came up again, the second attempt it took out the 23.6 and 38.2 fibo, then the market closed for the week
The 61.8 fibo of this last bull run and the daily 38.2 fibo are very close to each other, we might have good support there and it might take a little while till it breaks it.

http://img245.imageshack.us/img245/577/gjcz2.gif

'K',

Fabulous charts. I followed your posts and thinking all last week. The only thing I couldn't figure out was what caused you to go short at 242.70. Because of the stalling there at the 38.2 fibo I thought it could go either way even though GBP/JPY seemed to have a bearish bias at the time. I waited until 241.80 to short and got stopped out by that unusually long wick on the last 4H candle on Friday. Your charts make it clear why you shorted when you did. Thanks for your analysis. These kinds of posts are a classic example of what Threads were intended to do. Newbies take note.

M2B
  • #12,695
  • Aug 4, 2007 8:45am Aug 4, 2007 8:45am
at the Daily chart front, 239.70 level seems to be the next substantial support (14.6 of minor down trend and most importantly 38.2 of major uptrend)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP-GPY-Daily.jpg Size: 74 KB


At the weekly chartfront, 239.50 level is the next support with confluence from the weekly support line

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP-GPY-Weekly.jpg Size: 68 KB


I am favouring a long at 239.50-70 level
  • #12,696
  • Edited 10:22pm Aug 4, 2007 12:25pm | Edited 10:22pm
Quoting pedro13
...IMHO this might lead to a big demand for JPY which would make the GJ go down considerably.



If this is the case a clean break of 117 level would be preferred , I rest my chart analysis of GIPPY here , all the best in the future to everyone




3E




,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj1,paint,1.jpg Size: 40 KB
  • #12,697
  • Aug 4, 2007 3:49pm Aug 4, 2007 3:49pm
Quoting Zoran
Hi Qpip

Here is some friendly advice.

Know where to enter, where to place your stop and know your target. Then let money management take care of the rest.

Don't trade on hope and know that this game is all about probabilities.

If that doesn't make sense, then stick to a demo account and read some good books on trading.

Z
Words of wisdom. Thanks, Zoran. Very kind of you.
  • #12,698
  • Aug 4, 2007 4:05pm Aug 4, 2007 4:05pm
Quote (my2buoys):
I posted this Monthly Chart a couple weeks back. It still intrigues me. Notice whenever the RSI breaches 70 a retracement is imminent. It happens about every 8 to 10 years; 1980, 1990, 1998 and already here in February of 2007. Is there a further drop to come in the months ahead, perhaps even a reversal? Yes, carry trades are popular, but remember there is still more money to be made in actual pips than in interest in any trade. RSI has broken back down under 70 on this chart. Historically trends have reversed under these kinds of circumstances. However, the market doesn't necessarily care about history, it cares about right now. I'd be interested in any thoughts or comments on this chart from either a fundamental or technical point of view.


Very interesting observations my2buoys. Got me thinking. Here is some analysis. Anyone care to comment, go ahead.

http://i18.tinypic.com/645i9md.jpg

http://i17.tinypic.com/52ul852.jpg

Conclusions:The RSI is generally higher prior to a downtrend (ave 63) and lower prior to an uptrend (ave 30)
Uptrends always end between may and august.
Downtrends always start between june and september (except for 1982)
And looking at the 25 year chart, what strikes me is the 240.00 level (or thereabouts) which, since 1993, has acted as a very strong resistance 3 times and was followed the last 2 times by significant retracements (downtrends # 5 and 6)

OK so if we have a look at where we stand right now:
RSI was 78.47 in june (month prior to start of downthread)
240.00 range from april 30 to june 11, then uptrend, then back ranging 240.00 since july 26.
Uptrend has ended between june and september (in this case in june) - possibly
Downtrend has started between june and september (in this case july) - possibly

http://i14.tinypic.com/6f5hh86.jpg
  • #12,699
  • Edited Aug 5, 2007 2:46am Aug 4, 2007 6:15pm | Edited Aug 5, 2007 2:46am
Great idea Majd. Though I have to admit that where I come from this is the norm. We post our analysis and then make calls ahead of time or in real time and make the whole process completely transparent.

I'll do the same here although I'll be out of the loop next week due to moving and being without internet access at home for a week or so.

Good trading to you all.

Z

Quoting Majd
Hi everyone,

I have a suggestion which I believe would enhance the value of this thread....

Whenever any of us wants to post a live trade or recommend an entry price level or range, why not briefly mention the bases of such trade/ recommendation in the form of:

"Analysis time frame, trade @ entry price, TP and SL + indicators/ reasons"

e.g. "Daily Chart, Short @ 242.73 (32.8 Fibo + TRL), TP @ 241.00 (round number + recent support line), SL @ 243.10 (current week's high/ retracement level)"

ofcourse that's just an example on my kind of indicators; anything goes be it MA's, MACD, oscillators, bands, crossovers, candlesticks, price patterns/ formations, Elliot wave, etc..

This way, the value of ideas, experiences and learning opportunities will be maximized rather than being partially shared or fragmented across the discussion and we can lead a much more relevany, detailed and specific discussion.

Please do not misunderstand me for trying to restrict the "freedom of posting" by setting rules but I truly think that would be more helpful and useful to all.

I am definite that similar analysis can be conculded from each time we say "I believe, think, feel, expect or my hunch, expectation, prophecy".

Comments and inputrs are welcomed
  • #12,700
  • Aug 4, 2007 6:43pm Aug 4, 2007 6:43pm
Quoting Zoran
Great idea Majd. Though I have to admit that where I come from this is the norm. We post our analysis and then make calls ahead of time or in real time and make the whole process completely transparent.

I'll do the same here although I'll be out of the loop next week due to moving and being without internet access at home for a week or so.

Good trading to your all.

Z
I second Zoran. Some standardizing would be great, especially with the reasoning behind the trade. Great idea Majd.
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