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Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb

  • #501
  • Apr 30, 2025 8:53am Apr 30, 2025 8:53am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} GBP/USD hit TP +0.5% USD/JPY exit +0.3% 12 minutes before Red News {image} {image}
This is what I had on Nas
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Bullish on Heaven and Ruble
  • #502
  • Apr 30, 2025 9:24am Apr 30, 2025 9:24am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} I used to trade with an average risk of around 1.5% per position using a small account of $3,000 USD, aiming for 15 pips per trade with a static lot size. However, I sometimes lacked discipline in managing losses. After four months, the result was only a +6-7% overall gain, which was not sufficient for a business due to the small account size. There was a period when I gained about +30% in a single month; it felt like I was conquering the world. I’d just close my eyes, press the button, and win. Lol ...

u can call random trader , use luck to trade
  • #503
  • Edited 6:12pm Apr 30, 2025 5:54pm | Edited 6:12pm
Quoting Urahara-san
{quote} This is what I had on Nas {image}
A good and concise trade. What platform is that? Unfortunately, all my life I've only traded currencies only (besides crypto and stocks).

Quoting MoneyX2plyr
{quote} u can call random trader , use luck to trade
In trading (the financial world), luck plays a huge role—much more than any analysis. That's because the nature of markets is often random, the cool scientific name is "continuous random auction market", but the word "random" is often omitted because the speculative aspect is clearly visible, unless you have insider information beforehand. David Beckham rarely kicked a ball that didn't curve—that's skill, something that can be replicated consistently.
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #504
  • Edited 10:46pm Apr 30, 2025 10:16pm | Edited 10:46pm
This USD/JPY trade (30/04) closed late, about 5 minutes after the red news. However, if we observe the price, it didn’t change significantly. Let’s say around 7 minutes before the red news, so the gain was roughly save at 25 pips. The impact only started 15 minutes after the red news and continued onward. Then, according to prop firm rules, we must not trade JPY pairs for next 2.5 hours. Just want to make sure the data is accurate, so there's no mixing and it follows the existing rules.
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fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #505
  • Apr 30, 2025 10:47pm Apr 30, 2025 10:47pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} A good and concise trade. What platform is that? Unfortunately, all my life I've only traded currencies only (besides crypto and stocks). {quote} In trading (the financial world), luck plays a huge role—much more than any analysis. That's because the nature of markets is often random, the cool scientific name is "continuous random auction market", but the word "random" is often omitted because the speculative aspect is clearly visible, unless you have insider information beforehand. David Beckham rarely kicked a ball that didn't curve—that's...
That is CTrader. I could have had a better entry I think, but still, very nice.
Bullish on Heaven and Ruble
  • #506
  • Apr 30, 2025 11:02pm Apr 30, 2025 11:02pm
Quoting Urahara-san
{quote} That is CTrader. I could have had a better entry I think, but still, very nice.
cTrader nice!

No matter how good our entry is, the market doesn’t care—perfection is tough. Check out this leftover USD/CHF trade; the entry was terrible, but it’s working, didn't hit SL. TP is still way up north. Yesterday’s TP was 45 pips, now it is counted 47 pips, thanks to positive swap fees on USD/JPY and USD/CHF. Lol
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #507
  • May 1, 2025 12:27am May 1, 2025 12:27am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} cTrader nice! No matter how good our entry is, the market doesn’t care—perfection is tough. Check out this leftover USD/CHF trade; the entry was terrible, but it’s working, didn't hit SL. TP is still way up north. Yesterday’s TP was 45 pips, now it is counted 47 pips, thanks to positive swap fees on USD/JPY and USD/CHF. Lol {image} {image}
USD/CHF hit TP, +0.5%
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fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #508
  • May 1, 2025 1:44am May 1, 2025 1:44am
ForEx Rate > Futures Contract Currency Rate > LCU GDP PPP

- Anonopoulos -
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #509
  • May 1, 2025 2:42am May 1, 2025 2:42am
After London Open
3 trades today

AUD/USD Short, already at BE+2 (1 Unit 0.5%, 36 pips)
AUD/CAD Short (1 Unit 0.5%, 39 pips)
Add EUR/AUD Long (1 Unit 0.5%, 102 pips)
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #510
  • May 1, 2025 6:08am May 1, 2025 6:08am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} cTrader nice! No matter how good our entry is, the market doesn’t care—perfection is tough. Check out this leftover USD/CHF trade; the entry was terrible, but it’s working, didn't hit SL. TP is still way up north. Yesterday’s TP was 45 pips, now it is counted 47 pips, thanks to positive swap fees on USD/JPY and USD/CHF. Lol {image} {image}
You can get positive swap rates? I didn't know that.
Bullish on Heaven and Ruble
  • #511
  • Edited 7:59am May 1, 2025 7:36am | Edited 7:59am
Quoting RoelsMajor
After London Open 3 trades today AUD/USD Short, already at BE+2 (1 Unit 0.5%, 36 pips) AUD/CAD Short (1 Unit 0.5%, 39 pips) Add EUR/AUD Long (1 Unit 0.5%, 102 pips)
AUD/USD Hit BE+2
AUD/CAD Hit BE+2
EUR/AUD Gain +0.12, Closed 15 minutes before red news
AUD/CAD Re-Entry, Loss -0.01%, Closed 15 minutes before red news
AUD/USD Re-Entry, Gain +0.07%, Closed 15 minutes before red news
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fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #512
  • May 1, 2025 7:42am May 1, 2025 7:42am
Quoting Urahara-san
{quote} You can get positive swap rates? I didn't know that.
Yea per trade, but the total (all trades) might be negative.
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #513
  • May 1, 2025 8:05am May 1, 2025 8:05am
The clever release schedule of the rednews calendar makes it difficult for prices to keep up with its momentum.
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #514
  • May 1, 2025 12:42pm May 1, 2025 12:42pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Yea per trade, but the total (all trades) might be negative.
Bullish on Heaven and Ruble
  • #515
  • Edited 1:11pm May 1, 2025 1:00pm | Edited 1:11pm
Velocity one pip per minit - Lol
EUR/NZD manipulation broken fractals - Tri Candles Up and then Barts
Should get red nuke soon...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #516
  • May 1, 2025 2:01pm May 1, 2025 2:01pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
Velocity one pip per minit - Lol EUR/NZD manipulation broken fractals - Tri Candles Up and then Barts Should get red nuke soon... {image}
Now, EUR/NZD is parked in front of the entry point.
Lol
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #517
  • May 1, 2025 2:50pm May 1, 2025 2:50pm
Closed all trading positions ahead of the rollover phase—the spreads on these pairs are so large that, with only a few pips of gain and using break-even, it hardly makes sense. Waiting for the take-profit is a weakness of a system, just as taking profits too quickly is—nothing is perfect. If you take profit early to avoid giving back the many pips you’ve gained (and thus the percentage gain), how many pips of TP reliably get hit, and for that number of pips what percentage of risk is appropriate?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.iM15-020525-1-2.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD.iM15-010525-9-2.png Size: 28 KB
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fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #518
  • May 1, 2025 3:47pm May 1, 2025 3:47pm
Today, the USD/JPY pair's beautiful stairsteps to heaven make profiting seem straightforward in theory, but in practice, it keeps getting interrupted by Red News.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #519
  • May 1, 2025 4:15pm May 1, 2025 4:15pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
Closed all trading positions ahead of the rollover phase—the spreads on these pairs are so large that, with only a few pips of gain and using break-even, it hardly makes sense. Waiting for the take-profit is a weakness of a system, just as taking profits too quickly is—nothing is perfect. If you take profit early to avoid giving back the many pips you’ve gained (and thus the percentage gain), how many pips of TP reliably get hit, and for that number of pips what percentage of risk is appropriate? {image} {image} {image}
I think its knowing if your strategy is showing a reversal in where your trade is, I use the same method of entering a trade to exit a trade, also I think the R/R concept is a bit limiting, I like the name of your thread
  • #520
  • Edited 11:51pm May 1, 2025 11:40pm | Edited 11:51pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
Closed all trading positions ahead of the rollover phase—the spreads on these pairs are so large that, with only a few pips of gain and using break-even, it hardly makes sense. Waiting for the take-profit is a weakness of a system, just as taking profits too quickly is—nothing is perfect. If you take profit early to avoid giving back the many pips you’ve gained (and thus the percentage gain), how many pips of TP reliably get hit, and for that number of pips what percentage of risk is appropriate? {image} {image} {image}
And then:
Using BE+2 in System indeed a gift or curse, or using it too early.
Lol
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD.iM15.png Size: 24 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
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