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The Swamp

  • #122,561
  • Apr 30, 2025 6:18am Apr 30, 2025 6:18am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} They can pass. I am not afraid of that. And my personal opinion is the deal that is to be sign is not a trade deal is the mineral deal with Ukraine. No other deals. India will not sign now on a brink of war with Pakistan.
Well it took 2 years last to sign USMCA. 100 countries will take a lot of time. If there was any deal with anyone. We would see it in the Senate. A China spokesman are saying there are no talks.
He would need 9-10 Dems to agree with any deal. Who would do that with inflation over tariffs is off the charts?
Meanwhile companies are frozen. Because they can't plan. They dont know if tariffs will be ongoing decades, or stop in the next 15 min.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,562
  • Apr 30, 2025 6:35am Apr 30, 2025 6:35am
I'm not a gamer. Some of you are.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,563
  • Apr 30, 2025 6:36am Apr 30, 2025 6:36am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Well it took 2 years last to sign USMCA. 100 countries will take a lot of time. If there was any deal with anyone. We would see it in the Senate. A China spokesman are saying there are no talks. He would need 9-10 Dems to agree with any deal. Who would do that with inflation over tariffs is off the charts? Meanwhile companies are frozen. Because they can't plan. They dont know if tariffs will be ongoing decades, or stop in the next 15 min.
Then they will blame the democrats for tarrifs and no deals.
But last time 7 democrats voted so.... and by the way Ukraine/Russia war is a big example that not a lot of things moves Trump.

He already have Powel to blame now the democrats. It's enough for his cult.

btw, first signs of weakness in the US Stock market since bottom. maybe a bit of correction will drive gold and euro again up even if nothing yet on the charts to confirm.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,564
  • Apr 30, 2025 6:43am Apr 30, 2025 6:43am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} Then they will blame the democrats for tarrifs and no deals. But last time 7 democrats voted so.... and by the way Ukraine/Russia war is a big example that not a lot of things moves Trump. He already have Powel to blame now the democrats. It's enough for his cult. btw, first signs of weakness in the US Stock market since bottom. maybe a bit of correction will drive gold and euro again up even if nothing yet on the charts to confirm.
That GDP news if red, is a precursor for a recession. A recession while tariffs are raising prices. That will not be good. He can try to blame them. The base is shrinking already. The crowd he had last night was much smaller. So evidently rising beer prices move the base. So as beer rise, the base shrinks.. Unscientific of course.

Yes, beer prices have moved since January 20, 2025. Specifically, beer prices have increased faster than other beverage alcohol categories, with beer-at-home prices rising 1.4% year-over-year, which is slightly below the overall inflation rate of 3.1%. For example, one establishment announced that domestic beer prices increased to $2.50 per bottle and high-end beer prices increased to $3.50 per bottle, effective January 1st, 2025 according to a Facebook post.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,565
  • Apr 30, 2025 6:54am Apr 30, 2025 6:54am
The best MLB catch ever
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,566
  • Apr 30, 2025 7:09am Apr 30, 2025 7:09am
GDP Q in 2 h
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,567
  • Apr 30, 2025 7:18am Apr 30, 2025 7:18am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} Then they will blame the democrats for tarrifs and no deals. But last time 7 democrats voted so.... and by the way Ukraine/Russia war is a big example that not a lot of things moves Trump. He already have Powel to blame now the democrats. It's enough for his cult. btw, first signs of weakness in the US Stock market since bottom. maybe a bit of correction will drive gold and euro again up even if nothing yet on the charts to confirm.
I saw some cracks before.
And this is just adding to bad things
the problem will be bigger now.
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,568
  • Apr 30, 2025 7:34am Apr 30, 2025 7:34am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I saw some cracks before. And this is just adding to bad things the problem will be bigger now. {image}
not good
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,569
  • Apr 30, 2025 7:42am Apr 30, 2025 7:42am
Economy contracting, GDP Deflator (inflation) rising.

Looks like stagflation is on the menu.
Follow the money --Mark Felt (Deepthroat)
  • #122,570
  • Apr 30, 2025 8:06am Apr 30, 2025 8:06am
The EU was unable to take 1391.. The yen may also strengthen (not uj as much other yen crosses like ej or aj) Writing a report give me 15
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,571
  • Apr 30, 2025 8:15am Apr 30, 2025 8:15am
Quoting longfellow
Economy contracting, GDP Deflator (inflation) rising. Looks like stagflation is on the menu.
TRUMP ON ECONOMY: THIS WILL TAKE A WHILE
TRUMP ON ECONOMY: BE PATIENT

Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,572
  • Apr 30, 2025 9:36am Apr 30, 2025 9:36am
Quoting gatorinla
The EU was unable to take 1391.. The yen may also strengthen (not uj as much other yen crosses like ej or aj) Writing a report give me 15


Global Impact of U.S. Recession
Slower global growth: The U.S. is the world’s largest economy and a major consumer of global exports. A recession would reduce demand for goods from countries like China, Germany, Japan, and emerging markets.
Commodity price decline: A slowdown in U.S. activity could reduce demand for oil, copper, and other key commodities, hurting exporters like Brazil, Canada, and Australia.
Financial results: U.S. markets are deeply connected with global capital flows. A recession would trigger risk-off sentiment, tighter financial conditions, and potentially capital outflows from riskier markets.

 

  1. *Short-term USD strength likely? In the early stages of a U.S. recession, the dollar might actually strengthen, paradoxically, due to:Global risk aversion: Investors typically flee to “safe haven” assets like U.S. Treasuries and cash during global uncertainty (*This time who the hell knows? Why got a nut at the wheel). Global dollar funding needs: Many global firms and banks borrow in dollars and scramble for liquidity during downturns.
  2. Medium-term USD weakness possible: If the Fed responds aggressively with rate cuts or QE (quantitative easing) to fight the recession, this could:
  3. Weaken the dollar over time.
  4. Support global carry trades and risk assets.
  5. Boost emerging markets and commodity currencies (e.g., AUD, NZD, CAD).




Currency-Specific Implications


EUR/USD: Might initially fall if dollar strength persists, but could rebound if the Fed cuts more aggressively than the ECB.
JPY and CHF: Likely to strengthen as safe-haven currencies.
EM currencies: Initially pressured, but could rebound if the Fed eases substantially and global sentiment recovers.
Current Context Matters


U.S. interest rates are currently high, so the Fed has room to cut — meaning policy divergence will be a key driver.
Global debt is elevated, so a synchronized slowdown would strain emerging markets more than developed ones.
China’s economy is fragile, so a U.S. recession would hit global demand harder than in past cycles.


Summary: A U.S. recession would cause global ripples — dragging down global growth, *triggering a short-term flight to the dollar, but possibly leading to medium-term USD weakness if the Fed pivots sharply dovish.

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,573
  • Apr 30, 2025 9:52am Apr 30, 2025 9:52am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Its under 1375 now.. More like 1376.. But it may reach for 1383... If it sustans below 1376.. It may fall more.. But the GDP news may affect it later It may be a down dump before news {image}
LC could try 1383 again this h. But back below 1375 is likely bearish. possible liquid pocket it that area
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,574
  • Apr 30, 2025 10:07am Apr 30, 2025 10:07am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} LC could try 1383 again this h. But back below 1375 is likely bearish. possible liquid pocket it that area
LC on the bear side of 1375
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,575
  • Apr 30, 2025 10:28am Apr 30, 2025 10:28am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} LC on the bear side of 1375 {image}
1 adr is 1263ish.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,576
  • Apr 30, 2025 10:30am Apr 30, 2025 10:30am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1 adr is 1263ish. {image}
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,577
  • Apr 30, 2025 12:54pm Apr 30, 2025 12:54pm
Quoting longfellow
Economy contracting, GDP Deflator (inflation) rising. Looks like stagflation is on the menu.
You know that feeling you get, hearing the chain click, and the breeze. As you approach the top of the roller coaster? Next will be high pitched screaming. With a lot of praying "I will never do this again". Too late! No getting off now. 40 years of spoiled ass people will remember this ride. People who thought they were good business people will get an expensive education.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,578
  • Apr 30, 2025 1:01pm Apr 30, 2025 1:01pm
10 spiked earlier. It appears to be settling down some.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,579
  • Apr 30, 2025 1:29pm Apr 30, 2025 1:29pm
Its likely bearish below 1349 sustained .. tonight/tomorrow
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,580
  • Apr 30, 2025 2:43pm Apr 30, 2025 2:43pm
SPX500
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