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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #1,821
  • Aug 3, 2007 11:16am Aug 3, 2007 11:16am
Hi

Good moovements today!

What reasons are there to go up this pair? Only PMI on CAD that was lower than expected?

But all datas from US was bad too.

Other reason (I think.....) Market sentimment that USD/CAD is doing a reverse...So everybody buying on dips (Me too) Against market sentimment we can do nothing.
  • #1,822
  • Aug 3, 2007 11:22am Aug 3, 2007 11:22am
I'm selling usd/cad on every rally. I guess I just don't see what you all are seeing.
  • #1,823
  • Aug 3, 2007 11:29am Aug 3, 2007 11:29am
Quoting imbiber
I'm selling usd/cad on every rally. I guess I just don't see what you all are seeing.
I tend to agree; I think it's a great opportunity on this (and a number of other pairs that were hammered by fear factors over the last week or so) to scale into the long-term trends.
  • #1,824
  • Aug 3, 2007 11:34am Aug 3, 2007 11:34am
Quoting imbiber
I'm selling usd/cad on every rally. I guess I just don't see what you all are seeing.

Almost my positions today were sells. But now are all closed and waiting....

I donīt see anything to go up, unless market sentimment.
  • #1,825
  • Aug 3, 2007 11:41am Aug 3, 2007 11:41am
for this reason:
biggest reason bear cycle for me


Doesn't look good for the bears huh guys ?????

But as Cesar pointed out before, cable is still under correction and it should do the yo-yo thing for the next few weeks.

Heard something really interesting on a forex podcast...maybe it will help somebody here...

According to the analyst the dollar is at the end of its BEAR cycle. The FACT that the FED will cut interest to bust the economy will be received by the stock market as e sign of sell,get out of risk,cash in your profits. This could bring panic to the Dow, the carry trade unwinding could go down by 15%. At this point people would start to see the dollar as a safe haven again, and the paradox of a rate cut being bullish for the greenback would be confirmed

Any thoughts??
__________________
I know I'm searching for something
Something so undefined
That it can only be seen
By the eyes of the blind
In the middle of the night



This is being accumulated atm, being bought pretty hard, when they have what they want it will go nowhere but up
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,826
  • Aug 3, 2007 11:55am Aug 3, 2007 11:55am
I heard the fed was going to keep the intrest rates the same, and long term analaysis of the dollar is supposed to get weaker through the year 2009 as they predict the cost of oil will go to 200$ per barrel, not because of production (barring any major natural catastrophies, which we will probly have half a dozen or so of those) but because of the weakness of the dollar.
Plus the arabs also want to price their beloved oil in euros so they can make even more money and destroy the earth even more. Its all a game and right now the big players are winning HUGE. But thats just what I heard from one of those economical geeks from one of those economical stations, and dont believe everything you hear.
Just Trade It
  • #1,827
  • Aug 3, 2007 12:08pm Aug 3, 2007 12:08pm
The US is not going to be seen as a safe haven until it gets its spending under control, and we see a sizable move upward in essential US strengths, like manufacturing, and a strong downward move in personal consumption and debt levels. I doubt seriously the Fed will cut rates - it has to let the housing crisis run it's course, which takes longer than simpler and more easily dumped investments, like stocks. - and it has to let fnancial darwinism sort out the issues around the derivative industry (like CDO's). It also has to smooth the expected fall in the USD w/r to CNY - remember many US politico's are still calling for a 40% correction there - which could certainly adversely affect the US w/r to other majors, and commodity countries. Finally, one of the most critical elements of financial security is reputation, and if the Fed starts responding to short-term corrections by turning on the $ pumps again (a la Greenspan), it stands a good chance of losing what little credibility it has now.

Of course this could all change come monday
  • #1,828
  • Aug 3, 2007 12:12pm Aug 3, 2007 12:12pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Plus the arabs also want to price their beloved oil in euros so they can make even more money and destroy the earth even more.
Raising oil prices lowers the use of oil (and hence emissions), greenies should be grateful to the Arabs.
  • #1,829
  • Aug 3, 2007 12:14pm Aug 3, 2007 12:14pm
I agre with you Orion, but, high rates, and high inflation is very bad for business, for companies who invest on the country, because when they want to repatriate funds, they have no profit, but loss. Only a strong currency based on economy and not on speculation can offer safety to invest on the country. Look that one or two days, or some days before Central Banks meeting, there are alawys big movemments on markets. Many Money beeing safe.
On other way we canīt see one currecy only, we must see the pair and not only US. Look excatly noww USD/CAD go up USD/CHF come down.

But if somebody says that go up........go up....
  • #1,830
  • Aug 3, 2007 12:17pm Aug 3, 2007 12:17pm
Quoting HalifaxCB
Raising oil prices lowers the use of oil (and hence emissions), greenies should be grateful to the Arabs.
Yes but that percentage is soooo low it dosnt even count, when gas was almost $5 per gallon the brown smog was still in L.A and every other major city. It only lowers the use when people who have no money cant fill up their tanks.
Just Trade It
  • #1,831
  • Aug 3, 2007 1:02pm Aug 3, 2007 1:02pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Yes but that percentage is soooo low it dosnt even count, when gas was almost $5 per gallon the brown smog was still in L.A and every other major city. It only lowers the use when people who have no money cant fill up their tanks.
You have to remember that from around 1986 up until roughly 2000 or may 2002, oil prices (when corrected for inflation) were pretty low, it's not until the last few years that Americans have really started to feel the bite, while cultural habits - like buying excessively sized vehicles or houses - take a longer time to overcome. Given the current oil supply, + political problems, 150 USD oil in the next few years wouldn't surprise me in the least (especially if the Fed turns on the $ pumps). But it didn't take long for the public to respond to high oil (~100$ in 2007 $'s) during the oil crisis back in the late 70's (Goodbye Ford, hello Toyota...) Meanwile, Europe and Japan have been able to cope with much more expensive gas (due to taxes) than Americans, so I imagine the US will find a way...
  • #1,832
  • Edited 1:46pm Aug 3, 2007 1:32pm | Edited 1:46pm
Halifax, 150$ oil dont really know. I am sure that would bring the crazies out. THe attitude of ppl saying stupid things like OH U WANT 150$ oil lets make it 400$ or 1000$ and start destroying OIL assests across the world , they would need a special military just to protect oil assets and perhaps make a global meltdown. Myself i cold see the nutbars taking a stand and i would not oppose them doing such. Hay is cheap and nothing ike real horsepower LOL


Such a scenario would make al queda look like boy scouts. not saying i want that but it would definately make the heads take a look at what they have done dont u think.


Above all, these masters of manipulation. have everything figured out except 1 thing. The true free will of the ppl. I mean the free will above that will they can disable out of humanity with their abominations of desolation. That point when nothing even matters to a single person. 200$ oil would bring just such a thing. I believe that whole moral code of USA Pride went out the window the last time they caused such depressions, such attempts to have such control of MAN again will result in the heads demise im sure of it.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,833
  • Edited 1:45pm Aug 3, 2007 1:45pm | Edited 1:45pm
Earlier in the thread and in several other threads, I have seen people referring to 'pivot' (as part of trend analysis). Obvious, I am a newbie.. and tyring to comprehend what that means...

I'd appreciate if someone could explain the pivot pattern...

Thank you.

~G.
  • #1,834
  • Aug 3, 2007 1:57pm Aug 3, 2007 1:57pm
OrionsWay - $100 oil is certainly a possibility this year (though a small one); after all, the oil platforms in the Gulf aren't really in any better position than they were during Katrina, which popped oil from below fifty to eighty (IIRC).Any case, at least 50%, while $100 oil is only ~30% from here, and the general large storm forecast is worse. Plus US demand really hasn't dropped since then. As long as US demand continues to grow, and easy supplies to shrink (cf Peak Oil), the US wanders further out on an economic limb.

In the meantime replacement technologies aren't really doing all that well - coal based fuel is still a highly inefficient process; ethanol, besides driving up international food prices, is a bit of a boondoggle, and Americans are loathe to either go to nukes, or just use less. Eventually something will crack it wide open; another spate of hurricanes, political disorder in the ME, China's consumption (which is growing by leaps and bounds, though still well under the US on a per capita basis). Who knows what will be the trigger. But in the meantime it's a good time to teach your kids how to walk, and invest in public transport and low-tech transport industries (from shoes to mopeds...)
  • #1,835
  • Aug 3, 2007 2:20pm Aug 3, 2007 2:20pm
Halifax dont get me wrong i agree with all u are saying, it is all evident. I am just thinking PPL are about to topple the MAN in every country because of their abominations, When they push that last straw and break the backs i foresee anarchy globally and no military will contain it. Where is that breaking point Not sure when when its hit you will know that is for certain.

Not sure price of fuel heating oil whatever in UK but was talking to my dad back in Canada and he said about 1.30 a litre about 1 month ago, and they produce the shit. Whats that roughly a gallon to me thats INSANITY.

Maybe ultimately our lives will become like the Movie Mad Max LOL you can keep the car but pls dont take my donkey lol
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #1,836
  • Aug 3, 2007 2:29pm Aug 3, 2007 2:29pm
Omg such a stupid man i am!!! Why ... whyyyyyyyyy
  • #1,837
  • Aug 3, 2007 2:54pm Aug 3, 2007 2:54pm
Quoting AlphaGA
Earlier in the thread and in several other threads, I have seen people referring to 'pivot' (as part of trend analysis). Obvious, I am a newbie.. and tyring to comprehend what that means...

I'd appreciate if someone could explain the pivot pattern...

Thank you.

~G.
here is a whole article explaining pivot points

http://www.investopedia.com/articles...ntstrategy.asp

enjoy
  • #1,838
  • Aug 3, 2007 3:23pm Aug 3, 2007 3:23pm
200$ Oil, Armageddon, Illuminati. Erm. Okay.

I'm just gonna go on trading my charts

Expecting a 2 day PB off 1.0500 which is also a perfect weekly bar lineup / retrace. Monday will hear a lot of USDCAD bear screams if the scenario pans out as expected - more carry pain, an unexpected USD rally and USDCAD skywards.

Feeling 50/50 on the carry stuff, but weekly close below 118 clearly breaks down the weekly TL and good chances for USDCAD.

I know how I'm positioned.


Have a great weekend everyone
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Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,839
  • Aug 5, 2007 10:52pm Aug 5, 2007 10:52pm
Quoting mikanoka
Here is what I think... I don't trying to predict price movements, it's just some possible price directions.
Thanks mikanoka. I'm taking a look at it.
  • #1,840
  • Aug 5, 2007 11:12pm Aug 5, 2007 11:12pm
Quoting Forexpupil
Hi Mirdaniel

Forgive my question! Have you 2 open positions (Buys) at that prices witouht any protection? You have a big loss...

Excuse me my sugestion...Why you donīt open two sell positions on a peak, and you are playing them? Protect you and your are gaining some money. If you will see that go up, you buy again and when go down you are protected. Excuse my opinion...Like i said is only an opinion and a sugestion...The decision must be yours, and only yours...

At this time i think that we are on a breakout zone. Seems to me (May i be wrong), that a flag is developing. Market is in a sideway. But, iīm not good to read charts, there are many things, that i donīt know, but iīm trying to learn

Good luck to all
Hi Forexpupil,

Thank you very much for your response. Yes I have been selling a few time and took my profit. Just one sell put my margin level back up, but when I see a nice profit on a sell, I like to take it, especially like a few days ago I got a nice 105 pips ($1011.85); that was my best so far. Now the lost is too big on those 2 buys and I see a potential move up probably towards 1.0900 at least. I had to borrow some money to increase and protect my account. It is very heavy to support those 2 buys on my shoulder. Back in April, I listened too many analysts on tv here in Canada. Nobody saw that coming, it went south so quickly, lack of knowledge of my part obviously. Right now I found this forum and it helps me. Also I studying Elliott wave. Thank
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