Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb

Quoting RoelsMajor

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Todays aDtr Stil 22 pairs USD/JPY become convex overtime. Would be nice Long 1 unit 0.5%, 69 pips after London Open if the situation persists. {image} {image}

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Quoting RoelsMajor

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The price hasn't changed much since London Open; now 2 hours before the red news, NY Open. {image} {image} {image}

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Quoting RoelsMajor

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Knock knocking on heaven's door EU & GU

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Quoting RoelsMajor

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{quote} Very nice. You chose the 2 Step, huh? Is it a CFD or Futures challenge? What’s your target and max DD? Going all-in on 4 trades is extremely risky. I created this method so that even if it fails, it takes longer to fail, lol

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Quoting Urahara-san

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{quote} CFD targets 8% and 4%. I never risked more than 3% on any trade. Mostly 1%

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Quoting RoelsMajor

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{quote} EU 1.1400 and GU 1.3400 are likely to decline—when?

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Quoting RoelsMajor

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{quote} Ya, 3% per bet is the optimal risk derived from the Kelly Criterion for Forex (though it’s unclear if this is daily risk, so there’s a fundamental difference here). For prop trading firms, this doesn’t apply due to their extensive rules, so 0.5% per day or 1% per day is sufficient. If you have two consecutive positions, it becomes 0.5% x 2 per day (1%). You can add another 0.5% position, and so on, once the risk per trade has reached BE+2 (break-even plus 2). The issue of risk in Forex is often sidelined, even though it is a foundational...

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Quoting RoelsMajor

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{quote} Ya, 3% per bet is the optimal risk derived from the Kelly Criterion for Forex (though it’s unclear if this is daily risk, so there’s a fundamental difference here). For prop trading firms, this doesn’t apply due to their extensive rules, so 0.5% per day or 1% per day is sufficient. If you have two consecutive positions, it becomes 0.5% x 2 per day (1%). You can add another 0.5% position, and so on, once the risk per trade has reached BE+2 (break-even plus 2). The issue of risk in Forex is often sidelined, even though it is a foundational...

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Quoting Urahara-san

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{quote} I would like to think I risk 2% per day but that would be incorrect. I still have not that much discipline, but I'm improving. Yeah true, risk is not spoken about as much as it should and most traders want to show only wins but the reality is losing is a part of the game as much as if not more than winning.

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Quoting RoelsMajor

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Fire ▄︻デ══━一 Range 2 Short GBP/USD, 1 unit 0.5%, 42 pips Long USD/JPY, 1 unit 0.5%, 68 pips BE +2 each unit if profit +33% TP {image} {image}

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Quoting RoelsMajor

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{quote} I used to trade with an average risk of around 1.5% per position using a small account of $3,000 USD, aiming for 15 pips per trade with a static lot size. However, I sometimes lacked discipline in managing losses. After four months, the result was only a +6-7% overall gain, which was not sufficient for a business due to the small account size. There was a period when I gained about +30% in a single month; it felt like I was conquering the world. I’d just close my eyes, press the button, and win. Lol ...

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