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The Swamp

  • #122,541
  • Apr 29, 2025 3:56am Apr 29, 2025 3:56am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I got a buy signal 1379.. s/i 1375
s/o.. i should of closed
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,542
  • Apr 29, 2025 6:18am Apr 29, 2025 6:18am
Amazon will show the tariff tax separate, in pricing (the amount the tariff added). The White House is panicking. Lets see if Jeff B has the balls? Will Walmart follow?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,543
  • Apr 29, 2025 10:14am Apr 29, 2025 10:14am
Quoting gatorinla
Amazon will show the tariff tax separate, in pricing (the amount the tariff added). The White House is panicking. Lets see if Jeff B has the balls? Will Walmart follow?
he caved. Very hard to fight with Trump and he is fighting everybody at the same time. pretty crazy

1.139 x resistance now support ?
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,544
  • Apr 29, 2025 11:40am Apr 29, 2025 11:40am
Quoting gatorinla
Amazon will show the tariff tax separate, in pricing (the amount the tariff added). The White House is panicking. Lets see if Jeff B has the balls? Will Walmart follow?
Hang on, another walk to Marine 1. Talk with reporters happening now. Nevermind.. He wants to be the Pope
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,545
  • Apr 29, 2025 11:41am Apr 29, 2025 11:41am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} he caved. Very hard to fight with Trump and he is fighting everybody at the same time. pretty crazy 1.139 x resistance now support ?
1375 ish
R falling from 1420 t0 1411ish.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,546
  • Edited 1:03pm Apr 29, 2025 12:48pm | Edited 1:03pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} he caved. Very hard to fight with Trump and he is fighting everybody at the same time. pretty crazy 1.139 x resistance now support ?
Him caving puts it in the news cycle. The White House spokeswoman put it in the news cycle. She even blamed it on politics. Listen to her reason. "Why didnt Amazon do this when the Biden Administration hyped inflation to the highest level in 40 years". Does she possibly realise what she just said? The tariffs are inflationary. She admits it in her question.
What will she say now, inflation by passes the levels during Biden? You can't have it both ways.
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,547
  • Apr 29, 2025 1:06pm Apr 29, 2025 1:06pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} he caved. Very hard to fight with Trump and he is fighting everybody at the same time. pretty crazy 1.139 x resistance now support ?
Amazon may not put it in the pricing now. But the cat is out the bag. Someone else will do it play by play on some products.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,548
  • Apr 29, 2025 1:34pm Apr 29, 2025 1:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1375 ish R falling from 1420 t0 1411ish.
I believe that with this increasingly narrow range, it’s about to move in one direction.
Although I would like EUR/USD to drop, I think it’s more likely to break above 1.14.
Anyway, the range is annoying.
When I thought it would break above 1.14 during the session, it fell back below 1.139, but it’s not even reaching 1.132, where I would close some short positions.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,549
  • Apr 29, 2025 1:38pm Apr 29, 2025 1:38pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Him caving puts it in the news cycle. The White House spokeswoman put it in the news cycle. She even blamed it on politics. Listen to her reason. "Why didnt Amazon do this when the Biden Administration hyped inflation to the highest level in 40 years". Does she possibly realise what she just said? The tariffs are inflationary. She admits it in her question. What will she say now, inflation by passes the levels during Biden? You can't have it both ways. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnK3...&start_radio=1...
Yeah, I saw it, pretty dumb reaction.
Although, on the other hand, I did expect Amazon to hold up.

Trump is gaining more and more power. A lot of people are already giving in — NVDA, TSM, and others.
He's having meetings with CEOs again and treats them like his employees.
I think the market could rise further if he manages to close one or two deals, hopefully with bigger countries, not just Vietnam.
Bonds have recovered, so probably a lot of positive information is already priced in.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,550
  • Apr 29, 2025 1:39pm Apr 29, 2025 1:39pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Amazon may not put it in the pricing now. But the cat is out the bag. Someone else will do it play by play on some products.
None of them have the courage, absolutely no one dares to oppose him.
If even the judges are being arrested, who do you think will act differently from what he says?
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,551
  • Apr 29, 2025 3:34pm Apr 29, 2025 3:34pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} Yeah, I saw it, pretty dumb reaction. Although, on the other hand, I did expect Amazon to hold up. Trump is gaining more and more power. A lot of people are already giving in — NVDA, TSM, and others. He's having meetings with CEOs again and treats them like his employees. I think the market could rise further if he manages to close one or two deals, hopefully with bigger countries, not just Vietnam. Bonds have recovered, so probably a lot of positive information is already priced in.
Midterms are coming. He is losing support with independents and some of the cult. Those midterms will have some of the house members pivoting. Their religion is re-election. Ships hitting Cali are less, and 40% loaded. Someone will be sure to say this toy is a 10$, but it will cost you 24$ plus local taxes now. That will be blasted on the media. That's inflationary. That's why stores are cutting orders and shelves will be empty. That supply chain up to the retailer will cut jobs. Thats already coming. Those ships have already sailed. Manufacturers have probably already cut workers.. docks and transport to follow. How do you think a cult members who borrowed money to open a business will take their bankruptcy? I live in the bible belt, these people have guns
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,552
  • Apr 29, 2025 4:13pm Apr 29, 2025 4:13pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} Yeah, I saw it, pretty dumb reaction. Although, on the other hand, I did expect Amazon to hold up. Trump is gaining more and more power. A lot of people are already giving in — NVDA, TSM, and others. He's having meetings with CEOs again and treats them like his employees. I think the market could rise further if he manages to close one or two deals, hopefully with bigger countries, not just Vietnam. Bonds have recovered, so probably a lot of positive information is already priced in.
What makes it dumber. If "dumber" is a word. The China deal already in place is Trumps from last time. So if we are so stupid to be ripped off. He did that stupid deal. Just like the one that had replaced NAFTA. He did it with the USMCA deal.. That was signed in July 2020. He did all those deals. And 5 years later he blames it on stupid people. He is the stupid guy. He just thinks we are too stupid to remember. In many cases he is right. But i remember
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,553
  • Apr 29, 2025 4:31pm Apr 29, 2025 4:31pm
In U.S. history, three consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth has always been associated with a recession. While not an official rule, it’s a very strong signal.

Let’s break it down:

Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth has often aligned with recessions, but there have been exceptions (e.g., in 2001, GDP didn’t contract for two straight quarters, yet the NBER declared a recession).

Three or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is much rarer—and every time it’s happened, the U.S. has been in a recession.


examples:

1973–75 recession: 3 straight quarters of GDP decline.
1980 recession: 2 quarters down, a short rebound, then another down quarter—recession confirmed.
2008 Great Recession: multiple quarters of decline.
2020 COVID recession: a sharp single-quarter drop, but due to its magnitude and broad indicators, it was declared a recession.
This time with the tariffs compare to Covid 2020.


So historically, if we get three consecutive quarters of real GDP shrinkage, it has always coincided with a recession, even if not declared immediately.
Big news in the morning.. A miss here may push the usd down, EU up. Precursor of a U.S recession (unofficial but right all the time in 50yrs)
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,554
  • Apr 29, 2025 4:51pm Apr 29, 2025 4:51pm
If GDP is negative in the morning. I bet Powell gets several dirty Tweets. A turndorn in GDP, with inflation. Makes it extremely hard to cut. At least until we get the job losses. Japan has a few lost decades since the 1980s. With Stagflation, we may be in a like boat. I bet we get some type of deflection news. To take our mind off the data.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,555
  • Apr 29, 2025 7:33pm Apr 29, 2025 7:33pm
It must be hard work working on those 100 trade deals. I dont how people are so gullible. ATM there if you round it up to the nearest whole number. The administration has exactly 0 new trade deals with any other country. It's not a big secret they are keeping from us. Just remember congress approves all trade deals. The bullshit the idiot claims to the followers are lies. No deals are made without a vote in congress. It takes 2/3 of the senate for approval.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,556
  • Apr 29, 2025 7:58pm Apr 29, 2025 7:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1375 ish R falling from 1420 t0 1411ish.
Its under 1375 now.. More like 1376.. But it may reach for 1383... If it sustans below 1376.. It may fall more.. But the GDP news may affect it later
It may be a down dump before news
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,557
  • Apr 29, 2025 10:55pm Apr 29, 2025 10:55pm
Quoting gatorinla
It must be hard work working on those 100 trade deals. I dont how people are so gullible. ATM there if you round it up to the nearest whole number. The administration has exactly 0 new trade deals with any other country. It's not a big secret they are keeping from us. Just remember congress approves all trade deals. The bullshit the idiot claims to the followers are lies. No deals are made without a vote in congress. It takes 2/3 of the senate for approval.

He plays a lot of golf in order to have 100 deals going on at the same time.
I think it’s 1–2 deals, and the rest are just waiting for him to raise tariffs when the 90-day period expires. Tomorrow makes 30 days in which he hasn’t signed anything.
But at least he managed to bring in pretty big investments from tech. That’s probably the real goal, not all the cheap stuff.
I’m going to sleep.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,558
  • Apr 30, 2025 3:27am Apr 30, 2025 3:27am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} He plays a lot of golf in order to have 100 deals going on at the same time. I think it’s 1–2 deals, and the rest are just waiting for him to raise tariffs when the 90-day period expires. Tomorrow makes 30 days in which he hasn’t signed anything. But at least he managed to bring in pretty big investments from tech. That’s probably the real goal, not all the cheap stuff. I’m going to sleep.
My point is he cant sign anything. It's not for him to decide. All trade deals need Senate approval. Trade deals are treaty's. They can't be signed by him alone. We still have a constitution without a king. It took about 2 years for USMCA. Those 100 deals still need congress. The senate has yet to have one in a debate. I dont see any on the agenda. So there are no deals.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,559
  • Apr 30, 2025 3:45am Apr 30, 2025 3:45am
Article 2
Clause 2 Advice and Consent
He shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, provided two thirds of the Senators present concur; and he shall nominate, and by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, shall appoint Ambassadors, other public Ministers and Consuls, Judges of the supreme Court, and all other Officers of the United States, whose Appointments are not herein otherwise provided for, and which shall be established by Law: but the Congress may by Law vest the Appointment of such inferior Officers, as they think proper, in the President alone, in the Courts of Law, or in the Heads of Departments.


All trade deals need a 2/3 Senate vote.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,560
  • Apr 30, 2025 4:11am Apr 30, 2025 4:11am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} My point is he cant sign anything. It's not for him to decide. All trade deals need Senate approval. Trade deals are treaty's. They can't be signed by him alone. We still have a constitution without a king. It took about 2 years for USMCA. Those 100 deals still need congress. The senate has yet to have one in a debate. I dont see any on the agenda. So there are no deals.
They can pass. I am not afraid of that.

And my personal opinion is the deal that is to be sign is not a trade deal is the mineral deal with Ukraine.

No other deals. India will not sign now on a brink of war with Pakistan.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
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