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  • #1,921
  • Apr 25, 2025 8:38am Apr 25, 2025 8:38am
Bullish 5min opening range and we got a breakout.
Price also tested yesterday high as per today's plan.
Let see if the plan works or not. From this point, price may drop up to 50 Fib.
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  • #1,922
  • Apr 25, 2025 8:44am Apr 25, 2025 8:44am
Quoting Fadhl
Bullish 5min opening range and we got a breakout. Price also tested yesterday high as per today's plan. Let see if the plan works or not. From this point, price may drop up to 50 Fib. {image}
If the current candle closes red, I'll sell at the retest.
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  • #1,923
  • Apr 25, 2025 8:46am Apr 25, 2025 8:46am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} If the current candle closes red, I'll sell at the retest. {image}
Triggered!
  • #1,924
  • Apr 25, 2025 9:11am Apr 25, 2025 9:11am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Triggered!
And stopped!
Consumer sentiment came green!
The plan is still the same.
See you later.
  • #1,925
  • Apr 25, 2025 9:14am Apr 25, 2025 9:14am
Today is a bit harder to read for me, but it seems slightly bullish.

+ Google did well
+ UoM Sentiment came out better than expected
+ USA close to a deal with Japan

- China denies that there were talks between them and the USA
- Price is at daily resistance
- Price so far has been choppy.

Best case scenario is the green arrow with a target on the R1 pivot point at 19.628,50.

Worst case is the red one, with a target on the pivot point at 19.111,50.

Neutral is, it goes back to the overnight highs and then it goes back down to the volume point of control of yesterday at 19.258,50.

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  • #1,926
  • Apr 25, 2025 10:19am Apr 25, 2025 10:19am
My Possition for the day
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  • #1,927
  • Apr 25, 2025 11:03am Apr 25, 2025 11:03am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Does scalping work long term? And does my current strategy make sense? Hi Satyabotchu I am a full time scalper of ES / NQ & Gold Futures so I definitely know you can be profitable scalping for small profits.. But you need to raise your Winrate up to 78% min and long term around 83% to survive the scalping game. Also aim to keep your average winning trades larger than your average losing trades - this is what you watch mostly from all your trading data you will be studying every night. As for stops, 15 Ticks is workable for NQ. Personally...
It's really awesome to know that scalping actually works, and I'm glad to hear there are successful scalpers out there. I'm still in the trial-and-error phase with my stop-loss strategy. I started with a 1:1 ratio (10 TP / 10 SL), but it hasn't been working too well for me yet. Since I'm still new, I often spot the direction correctly, but FOMO kicks in, and I enter too early. That usually leads to a small drawdown before it eventually hits TP. So now, I’m thinking of trying a 20-point SL to give the trade a bit more breathing room. I’m definitely working on improving my win rate too.
I hadn’t heard of the fading market strategy before, but I’m really interested in learning more about it. I’ll check out some videos on YouTube, but if you have any good resources or examples, I’d really appreciate it.
Also, I’m planning to subscribe to Tradezella—thanks for the recommendation! Does it show the max drawdown for each trade? That would be super helpful.
Thanks again for all the valuable advice!
  • #1,928
  • Apr 25, 2025 11:05am Apr 25, 2025 11:05am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Just few points: Any strategy might work if you've clear rules that you consistently respect. 1- Your TF is 1min; Your TP=10 points What is your STP? You seem do not have a STP and when price goes against you, you add positions to your loss. If this is the case, you will loose. So if your TP=10 points; hence your STP must be 5 points in order to be winning. Otherwise your losses will be higher than your profits. 2- In NQ, 10 points TP is too tight! Each 1min candle in NQ has at least 10 points! You should revise this. 3- From your second...
Thanks so much for the valuable feedback.
  • #1,929
  • Apr 25, 2025 11:45am Apr 25, 2025 11:45am
Quoting Mattisanti
My Possition for the day {image}
Stopped, done for the week, have a nice weekend!!
  • #1,930
  • Apr 25, 2025 12:26pm Apr 25, 2025 12:26pm
Buyers stepping in, sellers finished - 19300ish now a support area
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  • #1,931
  • Edited 4:57pm Apr 25, 2025 4:12pm | Edited 4:57pm
Jumping in real quick: The RSI showes an overbougt market right now, looking closer we see a fall in the RSI and the Chart at about the 70lvl, whitch we just reached. So I could imagine a propable fall back in the chart maybe due to more problems in the China-Tariff subject or new uncertainty with Trump and Jerome Powell (unlikely but with Trump you never know what‘ll happen next) as he likes to change his mind or hit us with very unsusspected news. I‘d be bullish if the RSI calmed down to the 50-60 lvl or a little below and we get a little rebound down to move up again stronger. If not, I could imagine a very red week next week and a fall down back to the 18k lvl‘s if we stay overbought until like tuesday. And bad news about Tariffs hit the market.
I also just want to note my worrys every day that Trump, without any warning, just dropps the 90 day pause at any day and we fall like rocks back to the 16k lvl. He is just so unpredictable. But this week he seems to have come to his mind (or someone made him to)

Now really, see you all next week

https://economics.bmo.com/en/publica...-a1143efdba87/
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  • #1,932
  • Apr 26, 2025 11:16am Apr 26, 2025 11:16am
Upcoming Weekly Analysis!
FA Analysis:
1- Earnings season: In my view, it's irrelevant in terms of the data itself! It reflects the pre-tariffs era. Market is always looking forward. However, it gives market the opportunity for a relief, consolidation and rebalancing. So beside the kneejerk reaction, uncertainty is in the driver seat.
2- Trump's policies: The 90-day pause has a big chance to become an Eternity pause. Cracks inside Trump's team about the impacts of these tariffs on their own corporations will make them fleeing Trump's boat. Hence, the rational supporting the Eternity pause. This said, we'll see many tweets highlighting how much Trump is winning to feed his mindset.
3- Key economic data: Economic data will take over the driver seat. Recession and Inflation are the key data for market. Bad data is bad for Equities and vice-versa.
4- FED: Rate cut has increased probability during the next meeting, but for the wrong reasons. Both Trump and market will continue their pressure on the FED. This pressure is translated via Sell-off of stocks and equities.
5- Risk: Beside the uncertainty context, I think agreements between Iran-USA and Ukraine-Russia are underway. This is positive for equities. Gold is your indicator in this front.
TA Analysis:
Weekly TF:
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- Not much to update from two weeks ago analysis! Price is in its way to complete Wave 2. Crumbles left.
- Price broke out and closed above the 90-day pause weekly/daily candle. This tells you a continuation up is expected but not too much left in the upper side.
- Economic Data will drive the move. This might last 1-2 weeks.
Daily TF:
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- Green daily close with a small size candle.
- A consolidation period is expected to end this Wave 2. So there is no rush to jump in the sell side to catch the top of Wave 3. Here is a good opportunity for swing position that you can build incrementally as the price creates LL from lower TF up to Daily and Weekly TF.

GL!
  • #1,933
  • Apr 26, 2025 11:29am Apr 26, 2025 11:29am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Does scalping work long term? And does my current strategy make sense? Hi Satyabotchu I am a full time scalper of ES / NQ & Gold Futures so I definitely know you can be profitable scalping for small profits.. But you need to raise your Winrate up to 78% min and long term around 83% to survive the scalping game. Also aim to keep your average winning trades larger than your average losing trades - this is what you watch mostly from all your trading data you will be studying every night. As for stops, 15 Ticks is workable for NQ. Personally...

Thanks for sharing you creditable work.
was this on real-Live cash and which broker do you use?
many Continued Green Pips to you and your Trading Portfolio.
  • #1,934
  • Apr 28, 2025 7:36am Apr 28, 2025 7:36am
Good day...
  • #1,935
  • Apr 28, 2025 8:44am Apr 28, 2025 8:44am
The opening range was bearish.
Still few crumbs left to upside. l might pass for today.
  • #1,936
  • Apr 28, 2025 9:16am Apr 28, 2025 9:16am
Quoting Fadhl
The opening range was bearish. Still few crumbs left to upside. l might pass for today.
It's a consolidation day before key data from both earnings and economic.
See you tomorrow...GL!
  • #1,937
  • Apr 29, 2025 6:38am Apr 29, 2025 6:38am
Good day!
Following the weekly analysis, here are possible movements for the next few sessions.
As I mentioned few times now, there is still small room left to the upside followed by a consolidation before resuming the down trend with the beginning of Wave 3 and its Initial Swing.
Price has already made a new HH. Price might continue up without making a new HL. But I see a HL first. GL!
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  • #1,938
  • Apr 29, 2025 7:22am Apr 29, 2025 7:22am
Quoting Fadhl
Good day! Following the weekly analysis, here are possible movements for the next few sessions. As I mentioned few times now, there is still small room left to the upside followed by a consolidation before resuming the down trend with the beginning of Wave 3 and its Initial Swing. Price has already made a new HH. Price might continue up without making a new HL. But I see a HL first. GL! {image}
What about Trump's 100th days of presidency celebration
  • #1,939
  • Apr 29, 2025 10:44am Apr 29, 2025 10:44am
Quoting Skipler94
{quote} What about Trump's 100th days of presidency celebration
Non event!
  • #1,940
  • Apr 29, 2025 10:45am Apr 29, 2025 10:45am
A second boring day... See you tomorrow. Same plan same everything
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