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Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb

  • #461
  • Apr 27, 2025 4:55am Apr 27, 2025 4:55am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} I am sorry but buy or sell what? In my entire life, I have never bought or sold systems, if that’s what you’re asking. I study all existing systems and develop my own criteria. The latest one happens to be the PVSRA TVT version, which I’ve studied extensively and modified to suit my needs. As for free systems, they’re scattered all over forex forums worldwide, ten of thousands, including pirated copyrighted products. However, it’s improper to share someone else’s non-free work unless it’s solely for personal learning.
I meant how do you derive when or which to buy or sell in from the selected pairs ?
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #462
  • Apr 27, 2025 5:32am Apr 27, 2025 5:32am
Quoting skyf
{quote} I meant how do you derive when or which to buy or sell in from the selected pairs ?
You need to read the entire thread; this post below will summarize it for you and make it easy, as these are the latest criteria.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post15222469
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post15224411
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15228914
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #463
  • Apr 27, 2025 7:10am Apr 27, 2025 7:10am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} You need to read the entire thread; this post below will summarize it for you and make it easy, as these are the latest criteria. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post15222469 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post15224411 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15228914
So when a pair trends to 1/3 of its ATR, you'll enter in the trend direction?
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #464
  • Edited 8:45am Apr 27, 2025 8:26am | Edited 8:45am
Quoting skyf
{quote} So when a pair trends to 1/3 of its ATR, you'll enter in the trend direction?
No. See the image below as an example: after the London Open, we check whether the price is above the 50 EMA and whether the 50 EMA (the “Dragon”) is forming a convex curve (i.e., trending upward). Then we open a Long position close to the Dragon’s curve. For TP or SL, on that day ⅓ of the aDtr equals 66 pips, so we use that as our SL or TP. The lot size is adjusted or converted according to the risk you want to take per trade—in this example, 0.5% 66 pips would be 0.34 lot. Coincidentally, this USD/JPY trade hasn’t been closed yet, and it missed TP by 3 pips (+63 pips) before down to +26 pips.

Why convex and concave curves? This is due to the underlying mathematical relation – have a look at Jensen’s Inequality on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jensen%27s_inequality). We thus expect that if the curve is convex, its value will grow ever stronger over time, and likewise, if it is concave, it will weaken or its value will decrease as time goes on.

If you have difficulty translating English into your own language / dialect, use ChatGPT or DeepSeek with “Reason” or "DeepThinkR1" mode.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 1024px-ConvexFunction.svg.png Size: 12 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #465
  • Apr 27, 2025 10:01am Apr 27, 2025 10:01am
“Think of the following event: A collection of hieratic persons (from Harvard or some such place) lecture birds on how to fly. Imagine bald males in their sixties, dressed in black robes, officiating in a form of English that is full of jargon, with equations here and there for good measure. The bird flies. Wonderful confirmation! They rush to the department of ornithology to write books, articles, and reports stating that the bird has obeyed them, an impeccable causal inference. The Harvard Department of Ornithology is now indispensable for bird flying. It will get government research funds for its contribution.”

― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #466
  • Apr 27, 2025 10:40pm Apr 27, 2025 10:40pm
aDtr Today
28/04/2025

Still 22 pairs

USD/JPY Hit BE+1
USD/CHF still running, testing Auto BE EA...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15-25425-5-3.png Size: 26 KB
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fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #467
  • Apr 28, 2025 2:24am Apr 28, 2025 2:24am
Fire ▄︻デ══━一
Range 2
Long AUD/CHF, 1 unit 0.5%, 37 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCHF.iM15-28425-1-1.png Size: 27 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #468
  • Apr 28, 2025 2:56am Apr 28, 2025 2:56am
Fire ▄︻デ══━一
Range 2
Long USD/JPY, 1 unit 0.5%, 69 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15-28425-2-1.png Size: 28 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #469
  • Apr 28, 2025 3:01am Apr 28, 2025 3:01am
Quoting RoelsMajor
aDtr Today 28/04/2025 Still 22 pairs USD/JPY Hit BE+1 USD/CHF still running, testing Auto BE EA... {image} {image} {image}
Aha! Auto BE EA working nicely! Ok!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF.iM15-25425-4-4.png Size: 29 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #470
  • Edited 6:33am Apr 28, 2025 4:09am | Edited 6:33am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Aha! Auto BE EA working nicely! Ok! {image} {image} {image}
Hit BE+1, Now truly hit +1 pips, not manual BE+2, Better set BE+2
Lol
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF.iM15-25425-4-5.png Size: 30 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #471
  • Apr 28, 2025 5:42am Apr 28, 2025 5:42am
Fire ▄︻デ══━一
Range 2
Long USD/CHF, 1 unit 0.5%, 44 pips
Re-Entry
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF.iM15-28425-3-1.png Size: 29 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #472
  • Apr 28, 2025 6:51am Apr 28, 2025 6:51am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Fire ▄︻デ══━一 Range 2 Long USD/CHF, 1 unit 0.5%, 44 pips Re-Entry {image}
Hit BE+2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF.iM15-28425-3-2.png Size: 29 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #473
  • Apr 28, 2025 7:38am Apr 28, 2025 7:38am
Fire ▄︻デ══━一
Range 2
Long USD/CHF, 1 unit 0.5%, 44 pips
Re-Entry Again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF.iM15-28425-4-1.png Size: 29 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #474
  • Apr 28, 2025 9:09am Apr 28, 2025 9:09am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Fire ▄︻デ══━一 Range 2 Long USD/JPY, 1 unit 0.5%, 69 pips {image}
SL Hit, Loss 0.5%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15-28425-2-2.png Size: 30 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #475
  • Apr 28, 2025 9:46am Apr 28, 2025 9:46am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Fire ▄︻デ══━一 Range 2 Long AUD/CHF, 1 unit 0.5%, 37 pips {image}
Hit BE+2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCHF.iM15-28425-1-2.png Size: 28 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #476
  • Apr 28, 2025 9:48am Apr 28, 2025 9:48am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Fire ▄︻デ══━一 Range 2 Long USD/CHF, 1 unit 0.5%, 44 pips Re-Entry Again {image}
Very strong move "Anti-USD" tonight
Very Weak USD, Sell Off just in 3 hours
SL Hit, -0.5%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF.iM15-28425-4-2.png Size: 30 KB
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #477
  • Apr 28, 2025 10:49am Apr 28, 2025 10:49am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Very strong move "Anti-USD" tonight Very Weak USD, Sell Off just in 3 hours SL Hit, -0.5% {image}
GBPUSD also went wild today.
Bullish on Heaven and Ruble
  • #478
  • Apr 28, 2025 12:35pm Apr 28, 2025 12:35pm
Quoting Urahara-san
{quote} GBPUSD also went wild today.
Yup. No medicine for USD, Lol one way, no resistance.
Bad Day, 7 Trades Closed on Apr 28, 4 BE+, 3 Losses -0.5%. Deficit -1.5%.
One Trade on 29 still open...
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #479
  • Apr 28, 2025 1:51pm Apr 28, 2025 1:51pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Yup. No medicine for USD, Lol one way, no resistance. Bad Day, 7 Trades Closed on Apr 28, 4 BE+, 3 Losses -0.5%. Deficit -1.5%. One Trade on 29 still open...
4 trades all winners. The 5th was on Nas earlier and I was taken out then it moved. All in all, I passed my gaming prop phase 1, phase 2 I already reached the target but 3 trading days
Bullish on Heaven and Ruble
  • #480
  • Apr 28, 2025 11:51pm Apr 28, 2025 11:51pm
Quoting Urahara-san
{quote} 4 trades all winners. The 5th was on Nas earlier and I was taken out then it moved. All in all, I passed my gaming prop phase 1, phase 2 I already reached the target but 3 trading days
Very nice. You chose the 2 Step, huh? Is it a CFD or Futures challenge? What’s your target and max DD? Going all-in on 4 trades is extremely risky. I created this method so that even if it fails, it takes longer to fail, lol
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
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