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Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb

  • #441
  • Apr 24, 2025 9:27am Apr 24, 2025 9:27am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Fire ▄︻デ══━一 Again! Range 2 USD/JPY Short, 1 unit 0.5%, 68 pips USD/CHF Short, 1 unit 0.5%, 43 pips {image} {image}
Slowly cracking defenses on both USD pairs in Newyork Session
Lol The Anti-Trend!
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fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #442
  • Apr 24, 2025 10:15am Apr 24, 2025 10:15am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Slowly cracking defenses on both USD pairs in Newyork Session Lol The Anti-Trend! {image} {image}
It doesn’t seem to be working. For the past 4 days there have been many interventions from The Extremes. The price fractals might be broken again.
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Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #443
  • Apr 24, 2025 10:56am Apr 24, 2025 10:56am
On which platform are you trading on? Is it MT4 or what?
  • #444
  • Apr 24, 2025 10:33pm Apr 24, 2025 10:33pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} It doesn’t seem to be working. For the past 4 days there have been many interventions from The Extremes. The price fractals might be broken again.
Loss both trades. USD pair Bull win so far.

Quoting QuantSys
On which platform are you trading on? Is it MT4 or what?
MT4
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  • #445
  • Edited 11:09pm Apr 24, 2025 10:55pm | Edited 11:09pm
It seems that this week, currency pair movements have been more active in Range 1, while the USD has strengthened.
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  • #446
  • Apr 25, 2025 12:00am Apr 25, 2025 12:00am
As of 25/04/2025, aDtr has 22 pairs of option
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  • #447
  • Apr 25, 2025 4:04am Apr 25, 2025 4:04am
Rise GU, Rise. It is Friday.
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Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #448
  • Apr 25, 2025 7:46am Apr 25, 2025 7:46am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Rise GU, Rise. It is Friday.
I'm waiting also.
Bullish on Heaven and Ruble
  • #449
  • Apr 25, 2025 8:23am Apr 25, 2025 8:23am
Quoting Urahara-san
{quote} I'm waiting also.
My last GU trade hit BE+1, GU has risen 53 pips from the bottom. Now the NY session is a bit risky, so I switched to Long USD/CHF and USD/JPY.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #450
  • Apr 25, 2025 8:39am Apr 25, 2025 8:39am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} My last GU trade hit BE+1, GU has risen 53 pips from the bottom. Now the NY session is a bit risky, so I switched to Long USD/CHF and USD/JPY. {image} {image}
GU & EU Down
Range 3
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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fooled by randomness in art
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  • #451
  • Apr 25, 2025 8:45am Apr 25, 2025 8:45am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} GU & EU Down Range 3 {image} {image}
Waiting for that UoM release. I think that will be the catalyst.
Bullish on Heaven and Ruble
  • #452
  • Apr 25, 2025 9:09am Apr 25, 2025 9:09am
Quoting Urahara-san
{quote} Waiting for that UoM release. I think that will be the catalyst.
Yes, but at least for now, the price fractal isn't very good for moving upward. It's already showing signs of weakening.
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #453
  • Apr 25, 2025 9:37am Apr 25, 2025 9:37am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} Yes, but at least for now, the price fractal isn't very good for moving upward. It's already showing signs of weakening.
Yeah, I'm thinking it will be a small range day. Moving to BE and then leaving, I will check up on it in the afternoon session see if it moved.
Bullish on Heaven and Ruble
  • #454
  • Apr 25, 2025 10:43pm Apr 25, 2025 10:43pm
Performance was not great this week, primarily due to the market ranging. Closed Trades 20, 15 BE+1, 2 Hit TP, 2 Hit SL, 1 Small Win, 2 Trades still Open. The last USD/JPY trade missed the take profit by 3 pips. Overall statistics after drawdown correction are quite good at just -1%. Only a small portion of trades hit TP, while many ended at BE+1, making it very random (not to mention the reasoning behind pair selection and timing during execution). Overall, the system works well to minimize losing opportunities, as losses are inevitable in this business.

Lol
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  • #455
  • Edited Apr 26, 2025 7:33am Apr 25, 2025 11:36pm | Edited Apr 26, 2025 7:33am
Calculating risk when trading futures in a gaming prop firm

Browsing the website https://risk.papertraders.io/ to help traders calculate risk percentages when trading futures, as I’ve observed over the past 9 months that no one has been able to clearly explain this with precise math—most just make rough guesses. While this isn’t an issue for experienced traders who can estimate intuitively, it’s challenging for beginners. The tool is decent, but it limits the calculator to a maximum loss of 100 ticks. For example, with MGC (Micro Gold Futures), the current 21-day ATR is around 90$, meaning a 1/3 ATR would equate to 30$ or approximately 1/3 of 900 ticks (at 0.1$ per tick). If we want to risk only 0.5% per trade in $25k account, we’d need a 300-tick stop loss (SL) or trade roughly 0.42 contracts (ticks value $1). However, futures don’t allow fractional contracts. If we round down to 1 micro contract, the required SL becomes 125 ticks.

The problem is: How do we set a stop loss in ticks for MGC futures? Is this even possible with current trading platforms? In my opinion, their functionality and simplicity are far inferior to the great MT4 or MT5. That could also mean that since I’ve never traded in a gaming futures prop firm, I don’t understand their platform.

With a maximum balance drawdown (DD) limit of -3%, you’d have 6 attempts of 0.5% risk (or 750 ticks totale or 6 contracts totale) before blowing the account. Hopefully, this helps.
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  • #456
  • Edited 1:32am Apr 26, 2025 12:55am | Edited 1:32am
Textbook Trade
This Week

Long - GBP/JPY: 1/3 aDtr 77 pips
So no need really many TF to check, just Daily and M15. I would like to trade on M20 but MT4 has none built in, MT5 has it.
Pic 1 M15 zoom +1 click
Pic 2 M20 zoom +1 click (Offline)
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  • #457
  • Edited 7:11am Apr 26, 2025 1:29am | Edited 7:11am
Liquidity Zone Fallacy

There’s no such thing as a “liquidity zone,” because in forex trading liquidity is supplied every day by liquidity providers—without that, you’d struggle to see price movements, which would look like giant saw-teeth, Then, through various methods, the data is filtered again by the Broker with a price smoothing service. Every day, during the first one to two hours after the market opens, they make that liquidity available. Some of today’s newbie traders come up with terms like that just to seem cool and sophisticated. I prefer the old terms “support” and “resistance,” meaning the areas where price appears to consolidate before reversing direction—not necessarily only at the very tops and bottoms. Liquidity providers face the risk of large losses and can go bankrupt (tail risk).

Lel
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  • #458
  • Edited 6:53am Apr 26, 2025 6:30am | Edited 6:53am
Change towards the better, a reduction in deception

Day by day, I’m delighted to see the ecosystem at Forex Factory shifting toward honesty, with greater emphasis on science and math. We can dislike things that cause harm, so it’s incompatible with the theory of not being able to dislike anything.

And remember the truth: we are all losers (100%) before experiencing the eureka moment, then we win, later lose again, or alternate between victory and defeat. Those who are winning now may never recall their past defeats, and those who are losing now do not necessarily mean they have never triumphed in the past. Consistency is possible, but only a handful sustain a substantial success rate continuously over a 7 years.

Most of this stems from mindset errors, formed by incorrect ideas from psychological, economic, political toxins, and many other social sciences—not all are wrong, but only say 10% play a crucial role in human life and truly right. True statistics are now increasingly used by traders, and the practice of lying with statistics is being abandoned.

I also visited Trustpilot, where they’ve implemented the idea that star distributions (where the majority of ratings reflect a more representative customer score) determine rankings: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post15020895 I was surprised to see Darwinex Zero now ranked below Blueberry Funded, Lol.

While there’s still a chance of fake reviews, this is a positive step forward for Trustpilot’s rating system. Keep it a good work and The truth will prevail. Lol
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fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #459
  • Apr 26, 2025 9:01am Apr 26, 2025 9:01am
Quoting RoelsMajor
If you already have a well‑established system or method, trading becomes an enjoyable task of staying true to boredom, discipline, and patience. As of today, aDtr has 21 selected pairs out of 28. aDtr (average Daily true range) {image}
You buy or sell?
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #460
  • Edited 11:30am Apr 26, 2025 10:37am | Edited 11:30am
Quoting skyf
{quote} You buy or sell?
I am sorry but buy or sell what?

In my entire life, I have never bought or sold systems, if that’s what you’re asking. I study all existing systems and develop my own criteria. The latest one happens to be the PVSRA TVT version, which I’ve studied extensively and modified to suit my needs.

As for free systems, they’re scattered all over forex forums worldwide, ten of thousands, including pirated copyrighted products. However, it’s improper to share someone else’s non-free work unless it’s solely for personal learning.
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