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Meditations on Extremistan - Nassim Taleb

  • #421
  • Apr 21, 2025 12:15pm Apr 21, 2025 12:15pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
Fire ▄︻デ══━一 Range 2 EUR/NZD Short, 1 unit 0.5%, 88 pips -----> BE+1 if gain 30 pips {image}
Hit BE+1
Re-Entry
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #422
  • Apr 22, 2025 1:02am Apr 22, 2025 1:02am
These two trades actually both hit BE+1 and were closed manually; it’s hard to manage trades while sleeping without an EA, for example for money‑management trailing. So all five trades yesterday ended at BE+1.
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  • #423
  • Apr 22, 2025 3:44am Apr 22, 2025 3:44am
I don’t know when this defensive pattern will break, but the price curve has already become concave over time.

So Fire ▄︻デ══━一
Range 2
EUR/AUD Short, 1 unit 0.5%, 97 pips, BE+1 after gain 32 pips
EUR/NZD Short, 1 unit 0.5%, 90 pips, BE+1 after gain 30 pips
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.iM15-1.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD.iM15-1.png Size: 30 KB
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  • #424
  • Apr 22, 2025 8:54am Apr 22, 2025 8:54am
Quoting RoelsMajor
I don’t know when this defensive pattern will break, but the price curve has already become concave over time. So Fire ▄︻デ══━一 Range 2 EUR/AUD Short, 1 unit 0.5%, 97 pips, BE+1 after gain 32 pips EUR/NZD Short, 1 unit 0.5%, 90 pips, BE+1 after gain 30 pips {image} {image}
EUR/NZD Hit BE+1
EUR/AUD Broken Fractal, Closed at -0.25%
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.iM15-2.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD.iM15-2.png Size: 28 KB
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  • #425
  • Apr 22, 2025 11:18am Apr 22, 2025 11:18am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} EUR/NZD Hit BE+1 EUR/AUD Broken Fractal, Closed at -0.25% {image} {image}
Lol EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD got red nuke later. Ahoi! Super play!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.iM15.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD.iM15.png Size: 29 KB
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  • #426
  • Edited 12:27pm Apr 22, 2025 12:08pm | Edited 12:27pm
Textbook Trade

USD/JPY fit the textbook pattern today; I was actually going to open this trade, but there were already two positions open in succession. Likewise, EUR/CAD and GBP/CHF: opening more than two trades at the same time takes on risk beyond the limit. But imagine if every good setup across all pairs were tried. There are 22 pairs in today; if your win probability is, say, 67%, that’s 15 wins and 7 losses, at 0.5% per unit, which comes out to +4%. But that’s an 11% risk. Lol
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD.iM15.png Size: 27 KB
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  • #427
  • Edited 8:20pm Apr 22, 2025 1:16pm | Edited 8:20pm
The Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula used to determine the optimal fraction of your capital to allocate to each investment or bet, aiming to maximize long-term growth. It is based on the principle of maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth.

In forex, Kelly Criterion to risk 3% per trade/bet. Fx gaming prop firms typically have a -6% maximum drawdown (Max DD), while futures gaming prop firms usually have a Max DD ranging from -3% to -6%. Therefore, with such risk levels, losing one or two trades could wipe you out, necessitating a large amount of capital to keep buy challenges.

But that’s still normal. Gold traders on Forex Factory mostly use a risk of 7% to 33% (wow, whether on live or demo accounts). I think it’s because they don’t like, or have never traded, gaming prop firm. If you have $100k and divide it by 100, then one unit of $1000 is nice for 100 times gambling. No wonder that, year after year, no one stays active for very long in that thread; perhaps they’ve won a lot, or lost a lot.

Lol
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  • #428
  • Apr 22, 2025 1:56pm Apr 22, 2025 1:56pm
EU & GU

Gain 0.5% x 2

Quote
And remember, wins and losses are measured in percentages, not in RR or pips. 1 pip SL and 77 pips TP is also an RR77. Lol
Anonopoulos
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.iM15-1.png Size: 28 KB
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  • #429
  • Edited 10:40pm Apr 22, 2025 10:12pm | Edited 10:40pm
aDtr Today and fractals of the price movement
23/04/2025 - 22 pairs

The fractal price movements formed for these 22 currency pairs can be grouped into the following categories:

  1. GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD will share similar fractal patterns.
  2. EUR/NZD and EUR/AUD also share similar fractal patterns.
  3. GBP/JPY, USD/JPY, and CAD/JPY share similar fractal patterns.
  4. EUR/JPY moves with its own independent fractal pattern.
  5. CHF/JPY moves independently with its own fractal pattern.
  6. AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY share similar fractal patterns.
  7. EUR/USD and GBP/USD share similar fractal patterns.
  8. GBP/CHF and USD/CHF share similar fractal patterns.
  9. AUD/USD moves with its own independent fractal pattern.
  10. AUD/CHF moves independently with its own fractal pattern.
  11. GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD share similar fractal patterns.
  12. AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD share similar fractal patterns.
  13. USD/CAD moves independently with its own fractal pattern.

These fractals may shift into independent patterns at any time due to red news (high-impact events) or conditions that specifically affect the volatility of a currency.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aDtr230425.png Size: 8 KB
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  • #430
  • Apr 23, 2025 12:04am Apr 23, 2025 12:04am
USD/JPY

Range 2 Starts before London Open.
We make just a little predictions, do a lot of observing, and take action after the London Open (according to current rules of the system/method).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15.png Size: 25 KB
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  • #431
  • Apr 23, 2025 3:06am Apr 23, 2025 3:06am
Quoting RoelsMajor
USD/JPY Range 2 Starts before London Open. We make just a little predictions, do a lot of observing, and take action after the London Open (according to current rules of the system/method). {image}
Fire ▄︻デ══━一
Range 2
USD/JPY Short, 1 unit 0.5%, 67 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15-1.png Size: 30 KB
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  • #432
  • Apr 23, 2025 3:46am Apr 23, 2025 3:46am
Fire ▄︻デ══━一
Range 2
EUR/USD Long, 1 unit 0.5%, 46 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.iM15-1.png Size: 28 KB
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  • #433
  • Apr 23, 2025 5:41am Apr 23, 2025 5:41am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Fire ▄︻デ══━一 Range 2 EUR/USD Long, 1 unit 0.5%, 46 pips {image}
Hit BE+1
Pumping Dumping Stop Hunting
Re-Entry
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.iM15-2.png Size: 26 KB
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  • #434
  • Apr 23, 2025 7:22am Apr 23, 2025 7:22am
A contest to hit BE+1
Lol Maybe later after red news
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.iM15-4.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15-2.png Size: 27 KB
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  • #435
  • Edited Apr 24, 2025 12:14am Apr 23, 2025 11:01pm | Edited Apr 24, 2025 12:14am
Trading Panel EA

Starting from Monday the 21st, there have been 13 trades opened after the London Open, with the actual results being 11 breakevens (+1 pip), and 2 wins. So using an EA for BE+1 might help, but it's hard to find one (BE+1 based on percentage) in the MQL5 Market. The closest ones only have a basic breakeven feature.

https://www.mql5.com/en/market/produ...al#description
https://www.mql5.com/en/market/produ...06#description

Functions EA needed:
1. Open a market order (Buy or Sell), automatically calculate the lot size (normal/reguler) based on equity-risk percentage and pip-risk with a single click. Formula: size_in_lots = (% equity_to_risk / 100) x account_equity / pips_from_entry_to_SL / dollars_per_pip_moved)
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15217344
2. Set SL/TP RR1 automatically by that given set #1
3. Set SL to BE+1 by percentage TP (default 1/3 or 33.33% TP in pips)
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  • #436
  • Apr 24, 2025 12:22am Apr 24, 2025 12:22am
EUR/AUD & EUR/NZD

Maybe good signal for 1 unit 100 pips 0,5% and 1 unit 93 pips 0.5% - Range 2
But better wait after London Open...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD.iM15.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aDtr.png Size: 8 KB
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  • #437
  • Edited 6:20am Apr 24, 2025 5:19am | Edited 6:20am
EU and GU have reached 1/3 of the aDtr today. Late to enter due to hesitation; the other pairs are taking too long to process..

USDJPY Short, 1 unit 0.5% 68 pips
USDCHF Short, 1 Unit 0.5% 43 pips
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF.iM15-24-1.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15-24-1.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF.iM15-24-2.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15-24-2.png Size: 27 KB
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  • #438
  • Apr 24, 2025 6:17am Apr 24, 2025 6:17am
It seems there's something wrong with the FF Trade Explorer — it's currently unable to sync and also can't create a new explorer at the moment.
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  • #439
  • Apr 24, 2025 7:26am Apr 24, 2025 7:26am
Quoting RoelsMajor
EU and GU have reached 1/3 of the aDtr today. Late to enter due to hesitation; the other pairs are taking too long to process.. USDJPY Short, 1 unit 0.5% 68 pips USDCHF Short, 1 Unit 0.5% 43 pips {image} {image} {image} {image}
USD/JPY hit BE +1
USD/CHF exit 7 minutes before Red News
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15-24-3.png Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF.iM15-24-3.png Size: 25 KB
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  • #440
  • Apr 24, 2025 7:50am Apr 24, 2025 7:50am
Fire ▄︻デ══━一 Again!
Range 2
USD/JPY Short, 1 unit 0.5%, 68 pips
USD/CHF Short, 1 unit 0.5%, 43 pips
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF.iM15-24-4-1.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.iM15-24-3-1.png Size: 27 KB
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