Non farmpayrolls

what are your opinions going in to the non farm payrolls do we take any notice of the ADP number?

The median estimate for the July NFP is 125,000, with a range of 60,000 to 160,000.

In the first quarter of 2007 an average of 142,000 new jobs were created each month across all non agricultural fields; in the second quarter the average was 148,000.

The ADP National Employment Report, a measure of employment from the approximately 383,000 US business clients of this private payroll processing company, reported 48,000 new employment slots filled in July.

This number was less than half the forecast of 100,000.

In the past the ADP report has correlated well with the direction of the BLS statistic though not always with the magnitude of the results.

A strong NFP report will reinforce the GDP number, enhance the outlook for the US economy and bolster the Usd; a weak number will bring the market back to square one in its view of the American economy and the Dollar.

IMHO, ADP is off mark more than it is on.

If the NFP show a strong number then dolar should go up right?!
But... if it shows a baddd number i think that still should strong dolar cause everyone will say that people are afraid of risks and will take the money back from the market, and this shoot the dolar up right?

Any thoughts?

Of course this is a insane thinking, but......

Trade what you see, not what you think. remember that advice and you will be a happy trader.

If you all havent noticed. NFP has been lame since April....

No, a weak NFP number would doubtfully cause the $ to strengthen.

Keep in mind that NFp can whipsaw if the jobs number is close to expectations and the labor numbers inside the report show something contradictory.

The AdP has forecasted a bad NFP #, and if statistics are any indication the forecast is likely to be true.

However whast diffrent about Todays NFP is that the market is no longer talking about a bad NFP as a BAD for the USA, the market percetion at the current moment is to translate a

bad NFP # = Risk aversion = Get out of forex market = Close Long postions = Close all Yen Carry trades = Yen Strength.

which could also translate to GBP weekness.

Hence if any body wants to trade the NFP on the # be very careful as it might do the opposite of what it normally does.

This is true only in case of a bad NFP # any thing less than 80 K jobs.

If we have a bad NFP # I would be tempted to ride down the initial spike created on the Gbp/USD. and If we have a Good NFP number I would be inclined to Sell the cable.

And always remember to watch for those sneaky revisions to previous reports.

Friends,
i follow data and corelations very religiously - and so far i had a theory that US data is all made up - last few weeks have pretty much proven it

- PPI - negative - what !!!! Rising oil prices, rising commodity prices, rising labor costs, - HOW CAN PPI be negative ??

- TICS - Shocker - i have no idea who would buy US$ bonds to that amount - Most large bond holders are already looking to diversify

Its almost as if the Fed is telling a story - All is good DO NOT Panic - Let the US$ depreciate because we are not going to raise interest rates because the PPI is low, whereas the real reason is because of housing issues - and the economy looks great because people are buying our bonds.

The ADP is a private report and the NFP is a report by the Fed - The Fed's dont want any panic at this stage - they are covering the inevitable - the only way they will not allow any panic is by printing a good NFP number - they want to carry on their story that things are fine in USA - they cannot afford to print a bad NFP.

Lets see if my theory holds ground in about an hour.

\Me
trading since 2000

i agree to be careful - but am on a differnt standpoint - i wrote in another thread

i follow data and corelations very religiously - and so far i had a theory that US data is all made up - last few weeks have pretty much proven it

- PPI - negative - what !!!! Rising oil prices, rising commodity prices, rising labor costs, - HOW CAN PPI be negative ??

- TICS - Shocker - i have no idea who would buy US$ bonds to that amount - Most large bond holders are already looking to diversify

Its almost as if the Fed is telling a story - All is good DO NOT Panic - Let the US$ depreciate because we are not going to raise interest rates because the PPI is low, whereas the real reason is because of housing issues - and the economy looks great because people are buying our bonds.

The ADP is a private report and the NFP is a report by the Fed - The Fed's dont want any panic at this stage - they are covering the inevitable - the only way they will not allow any panic is by printing a good NFP number - they want to carry on their story that things are fine in USA - they cannot afford to print a bad NFP.

Lets see if my theory holds ground in about an hour.

\Me
trading since 2000

i also heard some other voices on multiple sites regarding the usa statistic's data.

good point gmohata regarding ppi

Nothing new, the US numbers are green ppl go short, then they ask how come it went up, if the numbers were good?!...ask Bush each time they fool u!...

[quote=huskins;1522412]The AdP has forecasted a bad NFP #, and if statistics are any indication the forecast is likely to be true.

Job growth in the ADP report has only a 0.35 correlation with the official measures of private payroll growth over the past three years. Very recent movements have also not tracked well, ADP predicted a pickup in June to 143k from its May estimate of 98k, whereas the official measure fell to 92k in June from 163k in May.


IMO: news from the credit markets will dominate the macro data in the short-term

boycie

i believe in a strength of dollar... but we shall see. The market is acting instable lately and even a bad data for US might boost Dollar as you guys said.

I am so nervous.

It whipsawed.



.

i dont think it whipsawed, look at it going in the right direction now. Spike trading is out. I remember when NFP was as slow as it is now

Anemic.

NFP with 30 pips on the spike (no whipsaw)...40 pips total over three minutes. An opportunity to make pips/money, but NFP does not begin to approach its former glory.

wow good to see you around MM! is it me, or did you take an extended FF sabbatical recently?

Hey Merlin,

You know I think FF is the best so I've been around, laying low, just trying not to post! Posting takes time and creates questions. Then you want to respond to the questions but that takes more time and the responses often generate additional questions! Time consuming.

Verily, verily, I understand the value of a forum like this is to share and increase the collective knowledge. Clearly some questions are legitimate but so many more questions can be answered by ... duh, reading through this trader's treasure trove known modestly as FF!

Keep up the outstanding work Merlin...I'll be watching!