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  • #122,401
  • Apr 23, 2025 1:55am Apr 23, 2025 1:55am
Quoting FT.Trader
I'm still long EU since 4-11. Am I nuts? I think EU will recover
I will try to hold out for 1244 or 1040. The eu at the high is up 13.7% for 2025. That is well into the larger moves. It may need 1040 or 1244.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,402
  • Apr 23, 2025 2:27am Apr 23, 2025 2:27am
compared historically:
Past big EUR/USD years — 4 months into the year:

Year4-Month Move Approx % Gain Comments
2003+1,200 pips+14%Massive USD weakness cycle
2008+1,100 pips+10.5%Pre-financial crisis strength
2017+750 pips+6.8%Trump trade / weak dollar
2020+800 pips+7.2%COVID panic (initial rally)
(2025) right now:
+1,395 pips
+13.7%
Conclusion:
2025 (as of April) is already one of the biggest 4-month EUR/USD moves of the last 20 years.
Very few years get this big, this fast.
Insights from this:
After these big 4-month runs, it's common for EUR/USD to either retrace heavily (300–600 pips) or sideways consolidate for 2–3 months.
Full trend continuation right after a massive 4-month move is rare without a big correction or pause.
Probabilities:

Outcome Chance After Big 4-Month Runs
Consolidation (range bound) 50%
Sharp retrace (300+ pips) 35%
Immediate continuation 15%
0% 1.1573
23.6%1.1244
38.2%1.1040
50.0%1.0875
61.8%1.0711
IF Range, what will it be?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,403
  • Apr 23, 2025 2:37am Apr 23, 2025 2:37am
If wrong about 1396 to become R. I will close either 1.1422 or 1425.
Range has the better odds. This time of year is also close to summer. We may set the range bottom.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,404
  • Apr 23, 2025 3:03am Apr 23, 2025 3:03am
Quoting gatorinla
If wrong about 1396 to become R. I will close either 1.1422 or 1425. Range has the better odds. This time of year is also close to summer. We may set the range bottom.
this current h is a 12h to close in 60 min
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,405
  • Apr 23, 2025 3:35am Apr 23, 2025 3:35am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} this current h is a 12h to close in 60 min {image}
we could stay near this level for a while
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #122,406
  • Apr 23, 2025 3:44am Apr 23, 2025 3:44am
Quoting gatorinla
If wrong about 1396 to become R. I will close either 1.1422 or 1425. Range has the better odds. This time of year is also close to summer. We may set the range bottom.
If 1396 can't hold the 12h close. 1478 may be in the path.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,407
  • Apr 23, 2025 4:02am Apr 23, 2025 4:02am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If 1396 can't hold the 12h close. 1478 may be in the path. {image}
1396 didnt hold the 12h..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,408
  • Apr 23, 2025 4:20am Apr 23, 2025 4:20am
Quoting DMA Trader
bought some eur and gold on the drop, closed some eur shorts. hedging also a bit my stocks. China seems to be wining on short term
taking some profits on some longs leave some open but 1.144 is strong
leaving all gold open for now.

will look to add. surprised that we are not going stronger on USD after this big rally in market.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,409
  • Apr 23, 2025 4:25am Apr 23, 2025 4:25am
Quoting gatorinla
Tesla profits down 71% year to year. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...s/83217370007/
I have small caps that do now more than 400M in net income. crazy
But earnings call was more about robots, mars and robotaxi so all good.
Wanted to buy below 200, maybe next time
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,410
  • Apr 23, 2025 4:26am Apr 23, 2025 4:26am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} taking some profits on some longs leave some open but 1.144 is strong leaving all gold open for now. will look to add. surprised that we are not going stronger on USD after this big rally in market.
1st TP's on gold opened few hour ago 3370 some left for 3500 area.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,411
  • Apr 23, 2025 4:46am Apr 23, 2025 4:46am
Quoting gatorinla
Tesla profits down 71% year to year. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...s/83217370007/
From what I personally see reading the results, I see companies much better prepared for tariffs than the clueless analysts say.
And the panic has already been quite exaggerated. It’s true that most companies are just now reporting,
but at least so far, the impact isn't as big as people think, and I’m not referring to the current impact of the tariffs,
but to the fact that companies are not that dependent on products from China or other places, and domestic demand is increasing, and yes, prices will probably rise.

The real problems are probably on Main Street and among smaller companies without access to capital, who are likely in trouble.
But there’s still a month of reports to come.
Even industrial companies have very good results.

See you all later. good luck
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,412
  • Apr 23, 2025 4:55am Apr 23, 2025 4:55am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I have small caps that do now more than 400M in net income. crazy But earnings call was more about robots, mars and robotaxi so all good. Wanted to buy below 200, maybe next time
It would had been negative. But Tesla sells tax credits back to other automakers
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,413
  • Apr 23, 2025 5:03am Apr 23, 2025 5:03am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} From what I personally see reading the results, I see companies much better prepared for tariffs than the clueless analysts say. And the panic has already been quite exaggerated. It’s true that most companies are just now reporting, but at least so far, the impact isn't as big as people think, and I’m not referring to the current impact of the tariffs, but to the fact that companies are not that dependent on products from China or other places, and domestic demand is increasing, and yes, prices will probably rise. The real problems are probably...
I dont think its exaggerated. Nobody knows what he will do. He is erratic. Your underestimating the result of a liquidity dry up. Stagflation once in, can last a decade. I dont know what he will do. He is pissed. He is a person who can't admit wrong. So he will move on to fuck up something else. He can't be silent. The next fu is coming. It's a pattern with him.
One day "Powell's termination can't come soon enough" the next day "I wasn't going to fire him". Then Blames what he said on the media.
Ships are leaving California empty.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,414
  • Apr 23, 2025 6:52am Apr 23, 2025 6:52am
Quoting gatorinla
compared historically: Past big EUR/USD years — 4 months into the year: Year4-Month Move Approx % Gain Comments 2003+1,200 pips+14%Massive USD weakness cycle 2008+1,100 pips+10.5%Pre-financial crisis strength 2017+750 pips+6.8%Trump trade / weak dollar 2020+800 pips+7.2%COVID panic (initial rally) (2025) right now: +1,395 pips +13.7% Conclusion: 2025 (as of April) is already one of the biggest 4-month EUR/USD moves of the last 20 years. Very few years get this big, this fast. Insights from this: After these big 4-month runs, it's common for EUR/USD...
Great info. Thx for the post
Last weeks COT report was bullish. That's why I'm still on the Long side. I follow Non-Commercial.

Summary from Grok
EUR/USD COT Recap (April 15, 2025, for Context)

  1. Open Interest: 872,209 (+38,787 from April 8)
  2. Non-Commercial: Net long 55,987 (+12,848). Longs +13,089, spreading +9,391 (21.4% long, 15.0% short)—bullish Euro vs. USD.
  3. Commercial: Net short -103,836 (-30,015). Shorts +33,735 (55.2% long, 67.1% short)—heavy hedging.
  4. Non-Reportable Positions: Net long 47,849 (+17,166). Longs +12,587 (11.3% long, 5.8% short)—bullish small traders.
  5. Takeaway: Non-Commercial and Non-Reportable bet on Euro strength, Commercial hedges hard.

  • #122,415
  • Apr 23, 2025 7:38am Apr 23, 2025 7:38am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I dont think its exaggerated. Nobody knows what he will do. He is erratic. Your underestimating the result of a liquidity dry up. Stagflation once in, can last a decade. I dont know what he will do. He is pissed. He is a person who can't admit wrong. So he will move on to fuck up something else. He can't be silent. The next fu is coming. It's a pattern with him. One day "Powell's termination can't come soon enough" the next day "I wasn't going to fire him". Then Blames what he said on the media. Ships are leaving California empty.
I don’t think there was ever a real possibility of Powell being fired.
I don’t understand where the media gets this crap from.
Then they say markets are going up because Powell isn’t being fired, it’s exhausting to listen to CNBC.
Same broken record.
Companies today are still reporting good results, well above expectations, and most importantly, the majority are maintaining their full-year guidance.
Anyway, I went long again on EUR/USD after selling it this morning.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,416
  • Apr 23, 2025 8:36am Apr 23, 2025 8:36am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I don’t understand where the media gets this crap from. Then they say markets are going up because Powell isn’t being fired, it’s exhausting to listen to CNBC. Same broken record.
They got it directly from Trump's mouth. He said it on other occasions also. This week Trump said, "Powell's termination can't come soon enough". It's not the media's fault Trump says stupid stuff. He is on video saying stupid stuff.

  1. Trump also called Powell “Mr. Too Late,” saying an unidentified “many” were calling for pre-emptive rate cuts. Just days ago, Trump said Powell’s termination can’t come soon enough, which seemed to be a reaction to Powell’s warning that tariffs would lead to higher rates and slower growth.
  2. https://www.barrons.com/articles/tru...feed&st=oTvTFS

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,417
  • Apr 23, 2025 9:00am Apr 23, 2025 9:00am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1396 acting R-ish, it may hold. It went 20 pips above. Now if it falls below 1348 sustained. It may reach for 1244. If not watch for 1396 to break. {image}
maybe becomes a R-ish 1348
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,418
  • Apr 23, 2025 9:08am Apr 23, 2025 9:08am
Eu finding some support at the 200 sma on the 1hr chart
  • #122,419
  • Apr 23, 2025 9:17am Apr 23, 2025 9:17am
Quoting FT.Trader
Eu finding some support at the 200 sma on the 1hr chart
Resistance is at 200sma on 30 min. I use 2 200 sma 1 high 1 Low
  • #122,420
  • Apr 23, 2025 9:31am Apr 23, 2025 9:31am
Quoting johncen
{quote} we could stay near this level for a while
it may be setting up a range. That may let it fall 300 or 600 pips off the high is common.. We dont know where the high is yet. I do know 1,370 pips is one of the highest 4 month moves. So if it is the high, 1244 will come. When is the question. 1040 may come too. even 0958 0875. This will not be visible until it would happen
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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