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The Swamp

  • #122,361
  • Apr 21, 2025 8:26pm Apr 21, 2025 8:26pm
Tesla to report tomorrow. The daily has a death cross.
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  • #122,362
  • Apr 21, 2025 8:30pm Apr 21, 2025 8:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I got some eu support 1485/94 ish. But sustained below 1499, it may turn bearish. The 30 min at 1485. I had hoped for 1396. But the bond yields are rising, as e markets drop
atm the 30 min held 1485, but the 4h closed below 1499. The 1h at 1458
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  • #122,363
  • Apr 21, 2025 9:26pm Apr 21, 2025 9:26pm
Typical Annual Move (EUR/USD)Rare Big Years (EUR/USD)
5–8% total 10–15% total Smooth trends Wild volatility
Normal years:
EUR/USD might move 5–7% total from January to December.
Small trends, steady.
Big years (like during 2008 crash, 2011 Euro Crisis, 2020 COVID):
EUR/USD can swing 12% to 20%.
So 13.17% 2025 up is already a BIG deal.
It's not unheard of, but it's not normal either.
Meaning: The higher it climbs, the heavier it feels.
Big money will start looking for reasons to "book profits" (sell into strength) — especially near big old levels (like 1.15, 1.16, 1.17).
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,364
  • Apr 21, 2025 9:34pm Apr 21, 2025 9:34pm
The biggest year was 20% in 2003.

The biggest % move ever in EUR/USD (single year) was in 2003:

YearMoveDirection
2003+20.1%EUR/USD up (dollar crash after Iraq war)
EUR/USD went from ~1.0350 to ~1.2400.
The dollar was getting crushed because of war fears, deficits, and a rate cut cycle.Here’s a few more huge EUR/USD years for perspective:

YearMoveDirectionNotes
2003+20.1%UpPost-Iraq war, US deficits
2007+10.2%UpFinancial bubble (pre-crash)
2014-12.0%DownECB negative rates
2020+8.9%UpCOVID chaos (dollar weak)
2005-12.7%DownUS rate hikes
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,365
  • Apr 21, 2025 9:43pm Apr 21, 2025 9:43pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} it could be some more nonsense (like Powel sacked) this will push usd further down
I think this will be his next bad step.
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And i don't think there is anyone of his party will try to stop him or stand against him.

According to his first term as president usd fall up to 1900 pip in his first year.
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So we are at the middle of the storm (But the storm was severe from the beginning).
  • #122,366
  • Apr 21, 2025 10:04pm Apr 21, 2025 10:04pm
Quoting e3sarX
{quote} I think this will be his next bad step. {image} And i don't think there is anyone of his party will try to stop him or stand against him. According to his first term as president usd fall up to 1900 pip in his first year. {image} So we are at the middle of the storm (But the storm was severe from the beginning).
he cant fire powell. And if he did leave (over Trump), a mother loss for the usd... We would have Turkey style inflation. If he tries to fire him the equites would fall harder.. treasury rates would climb. It may kill the usd. Trump destabilized the entire stability of the USA. The world is voting by running away.
More Trump instability, a fuckin moron runs this country. A 6X bankrupt idiot. When rates go up, it increases the deficit. Because we pay more in interest
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  • #122,367
  • Apr 21, 2025 10:24pm Apr 21, 2025 10:24pm
I think some R 1543/44.. Bulls want to sustain above
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  • #122,368
  • Apr 21, 2025 10:49pm Apr 21, 2025 10:49pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} he cant fire powell. And if he did leave (over Trump), a mother loss for the usd... We would have Turkey style inflation. If he tries to fire him the equites would fall harder.. treasury rates would climb. It may kill the usd. Trump destabilized the entire stability of the USA. The world is voting by running away. More Trump instability, a fuckin moron runs this country. A 6X bankrupt idiot. When rates go up, it increases the deficit. Because we pay more in interest
I don't think he is care about what you are talking about or any economist people talking about.
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Inserted Video

This short video only should destabilized the entire stability of the USA ( tariffs + inside news ).

I think he is waiting a support from KSA, finish the deal with ukrain to take 50% from the ukrain resourses and a golden egg from his tariffs otherwise i don't think he have a real ideas to support the economy.

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It may kill the usd.
Not kill "in the literal sense"
this just will let the economy weakens for a period of time, then the country returns to stability again after several years ( under another president ).

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} More Trump instability, a fuckin moron runs this country. A 6X bankrupt idiot. When rates go up, it increases the deficit. Because we pay more in interest
He is based on propaganda only. "Lets make America great again"
He become like Mr. Mexico Sisi.
  • #122,369
  • Apr 22, 2025 3:17am Apr 22, 2025 3:17am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}atm the 30 min held 1485, but the 4h closed below 1499. The 1h at 1458
Quoting gatorinla
I think some R 1543/44.. Bulls want to sustain above
pa is between the two..
The next 1h close is a 12h close. Above 1544 leans bullish, below 1499 leans bearish. Between may range
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  • #122,370
  • Apr 22, 2025 4:04am Apr 22, 2025 4:04am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} {quote} pa is between the two.. The next 1h close is a 12h close. Above 1544 leans bullish, below 1499 leans bearish. Between may range
From what I see pa closed 1499 (below the number I used).. the bearside. But not below lc 1497.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,371
  • Apr 22, 2025 4:27am Apr 22, 2025 4:27am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} From what I see pa closed 1499 (below the number I used).. the bearside. But not below lc 1497.
bear is gaining power and if we can break the low, could be the temp top we have been waiting
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #122,372
  • Apr 22, 2025 5:27am Apr 22, 2025 5:27am
Quoting johncen
{quote} bear is gaining power and if we can break the low, could be the temp top we have been waiting
The day close and the 12h is above lc. 1497. It may be a limited drop.
Plus Grandpa is attacking the FED. That could launch the eu on a rant
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,373
  • Edited 5:52am Apr 22, 2025 5:38am | Edited 5:52am
Trump likes to set records. With 1 week left this month. He may have the worst drop in Dow history. He is in the running to beat 1931, the worst year in the DOW. During The Great Depression. I'm getting less fan mail from his cult supporters. That has to mean something. Time to party like 1931! Break out the apple carts.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,374
  • Apr 22, 2025 8:05am Apr 22, 2025 8:05am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} he cant fire powell. And if he did leave (over Trump), a mother loss for the usd... We would have Turkey style inflation. If he tries to fire him the equites would fall harder.. treasury rates would climb. It may kill the usd. Trump destabilized the entire stability of the USA. The world is voting by running away. More Trump instability, a fuckin moron runs this country. A 6X bankrupt idiot. When rates go up, it increases the deficit. Because we pay more in interest
I don't think he will be fired. I believe it's enough to place the blame on him for not cutting interest rates in an environment that, apart from tariffs, seems non-inflationary for the moment.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,375
  • Apr 22, 2025 10:15am Apr 22, 2025 10:15am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I don't think he will be fired. I believe it's enough to place the blame on him for not cutting interest rates in an environment that, apart from tariffs, seems non-inflationary for the moment.
The board of governors control the interest rate. Powell has his 1 vote. They all voted not to cut. He would need to force more than 1/2 of them out. Powell has the law on his side, and can afford to fight it. If he forced them all to resign. Circuit breakers will be hit. The USD would fall. We would likely have mass market panic. Exactly what would happen is speculation. I doubt it would be good.
The old man shit the bed and tries to blame it on others. This is all DT 2.0. Putin's useful idiot. They took our buildings on 911. Trying to take us down. Puting did it without firing a shot.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,376
  • Apr 22, 2025 10:25am Apr 22, 2025 10:25am
10 y has a green candle.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,377
  • Apr 22, 2025 10:34am Apr 22, 2025 10:34am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The board of governors control the interest rate. Powell has his 1 vote. They all voted not to cut. He would need to force more than 1/2 of them out. Powell has the law on his side, and can afford to fight it. If he forced them all to resign. Circuit breakers will be hit. The USD would fall. We would likely have mass market panic. Exactly what would happen is speculation. I doubt it would be good. The old man shit the bed and tries to blame it on others. This is all DT 2.0. Putin's useful idiot. They took our buildings on 911. Trying to...
Everybody knows there's a problem with China and with the way we have the deficit. Europe has 450 million people and is quite similar to the U.S yet trade balance looks way better. Unfortunately, I don't think Trump will achieve much. We're already getting close to 30 days since April 2nd and no one seems to be in a hurry.

And from Lagarde's statements today, it seems like the Europeans are kind of getting closer to China. I see that the President from Mexico hasn't signed anything either, nor has India, even though Vance was there today. I'm afraid He will soon have to give in to the market again. Probably that's also why we're seeing a good rise in equities today
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #122,378
  • Apr 22, 2025 11:49am Apr 22, 2025 11:49am
Quoting gatorinla
10 y has a green candle. {image}
the usd has some expand room. This 6h closes next h 10Y
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,379
  • Apr 22, 2025 11:54am Apr 22, 2025 11:54am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} Everybody knows there's a problem with China and with the way we have the deficit. Europe has 450 million people and is quite similar to the U.S yet trade balance looks way better. Unfortunately, I don't think Trump will achieve much. We're already getting close to 30 days since April 2nd and no one seems to be in a hurry. And from Lagarde's statements today, it seems like the Europeans are kind of getting closer to China. I see that the President from Mexico hasn't signed anything either, nor has India, even though Vance was there today....
They may seem that way. But people in other countries dont like to take a bullies shit. The point of view from someone living in the U.S. dont have the same perspective. Its just human nature when someone tries to screw you, you screw them back. That's just part of being free. You dont want someone in another country to control you. So those free people will have a grudge. When you fuck your friends, you lose trust. We won't get that back with the moron in the bighouse. It took many decades to build trust. He pissedit away in a few months
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #122,380
  • Apr 22, 2025 11:59am Apr 22, 2025 11:59am
Anyway 1396 looks to be calling. It should be attracted
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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