Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

Charles Hugh Smith from Charles Hugh Smith's Substack
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Mon, April 21, 2025 at 1:25 p.m.

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What's "Normal" in a Hyper-Normalized World?
Now that the entire economy depends on these hyper-normalized speculative bubbles for its "growth" and "wealth," there is a profound fear of a future based not on artifice but on the real world.

Charles Hugh Smith

Humans are quick to habituate to current conditions, i.e. consider them normal. This rapid normalization has advantages and disadvantages.

Normalization is an adaptive strategy, enabling humans to adapt readily to conditions that are considerably different from their previous "normal" state of affairs. So those ripped out of their "normal" lives and thrown into the Gulag soon consider the wretched conditions of the prison camp "normal."

The downside of normalization is that it erects a defensive barrier between the real world and the perceived, i.e. normalized world. In systems that have failed but are incapable of real reform, normalization phase-shifts into Hyper-normalization (generally one word, Hypernormalization), a peculiar adaptive state described by Alexei Yurchak, a Russian anthropologist who used the term in his 2005 book Everything was Forever, Until it was No More: The Last Soviet Generation.

Documentary filmmaker Adam Curtis described Hypernormalization in this way:

"'HyperNormalization' is a word that was coined by a brilliant Russian historian who was writing about what it was like to live in the last years of the Soviet Union. What he said, which I thought was fascinating, was that in the 80s everyone from the top to the bottom of Soviet society knew that it wasn't working, knew that it was corrupt, knew that the bosses were looting the system, knew that the politicians had no alternative vision. And they knew that the bosses knew that they knew that. Everyone knew it was fake, but because no one had any alternative vision for a different kind of society, they accepted this sense of total fakeness as normal. And this historian, Alexei Yurchak, coined the phrase 'HyperNormalisation' to describe that feeling."

I submit that the U.S. economy and stock market have been hypernormalized to the degree that what is now viewed as "normal" is completely detached from the real world. What we inhabit is a system that has lost all authenticity and survives entirely on the ceaseless marketing of artifice, a.k.a.. narrative control that benefits the few at the expense of the many.

In effect, "normal life" is stripped of authenticity in favour of a simulacrum of "normal" that supports those at the top of the status quo. This "new normal" reaches extremes of artifice, hence hyper-normalization.

As long as everyone thinks there are no alternatives to this hyper-normalized simulacrum, this artificial construct appears to be immutable--everything is forever.

But once the power structure admits, however minimally, that it no longer has the answers to the decay of the social-economic order, then the entire artificial construct collapses in a heap. This is the sociology of collapse: people accept a facade of artifice and propaganda without actually believing any of it, though they do have a limbic loyalty to the founding ideals of the nation.

What's real is denial, repression of non-conforming realities, group-think, virtue-signaling and a profound loss of competence.

In this hyper-normalized state, madness of crowds speculative bubbles are now considered normal, not just in stocks but in housing, commodities, quatloos and everything else that can be commoditized, marketed and sold:


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So Housing Bubble #2 is not viewed as an insane extreme that is bound to succumb to gravity, it's "normal."


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Here is the real world: speculative frenzies are abnormal and the collapse of these bubbles is normal and predictable.


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Now that the entire economy depends on these hyper-normalized speculative bubbles for its "growth" and "wealth" (two additional examples of hypernormalization), there is a profound fear of a future based not on artifice but on the real world.


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Bonner Private Research
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Mon, April 21, 2025 at 6:51 p.m.

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How $50 Trillion Could Vanish

Bill Bonner

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The following was prepared for new readers of Bonner Private Research and is intended for investors, savers, and retirees in the United States.
Monday, April 21st, 2025

By Bill Bonner
Dear Reader,
You may find this alarming. Or aggravating. Or irritating. Or all of the above. Why?
In our experience, people don't like being told that what they thought was true is wrong. They especially don't like being told they might not make as much money as they thought. Or, that they are not really as rich as they thought they were.

We’ve learned this the hard way over many years.

1. In the 1970s we attempted to convince the states to call a Constitutional Convention to add a balanced budget requirement. US debt level then: $700 billion

1. In 1986, we sued the Federal government, arguing that saddling the next generation with debt was ‘taxation without representation.’ Debt level: $2.1 trillion

1. In 1993 we published a small but influential book called The Plague of the Black Debt. It warned, in precise detail, of the dangers a country faced from becoming addicted to debt. The mainstream media–in the tank for Bill Clinton–hated it. Our warning was ignored and America went down a disastrous debt path (more on that later). Debt level: $4.4 trillion

1. In 2003, we published Financial Reckoning Day. It was a warning that the hangover from the dot.com bust would be a soft depression, with lower stock prices and higher inflation. It took the Nasdaq 15 years to make a new high after the crash. Debt level: $6.7 trillion

1. In 2006, our book, Empire of Debt, warned about the recklessness of more and more federal borrowing. Debt level: $8.5 trillion

1. In 2007, we warned that real estate had become dangerously inflated – thanks to the Fed’s too-low, too-long interest rate policies which encouraged debt in the housing sector. In 2008, Ben Bernanke warned Congress that ‘we may not even have an economy,’ unless it took immediate action to save Wall Street. Debt level: $10 trillion

1. About six years later, we made what we think was our most important observation ever–that too much of a good thing (credit!) leads to catastrophe. It was more philosophical than our previous books. But more relevant today than ever. Debt level: $17 trillion

1. Debt level today: $37 trillion.

Today, there's no time to write a book. All we can do is raise the alarm...and introduce you to a way of seeing financial markets that can save you from bigger losses...or even result in unexpected gains.

The idea we’d like to show you could be the single most important investment idea of the next ten years. And because so many Americans are at or near a critical time of their financial lives–the timing couldn't be more urgent.

US stocks began 2025 at all-time high valuations. A big correction has begun. But it has much further to go. We can prove it to you below. The risk is so high – in real estate and bonds as well as stocks – that without exaggerating, this may be the most important warning we’ve published to savers, retirees, and investors in forty years.

Reversion to the Mean
Price movements in the stock market are episodic and cyclical. They are never completely independent from the real economy. And here is the most important part: they are always subject to mean reversion. That is, they always go back to where they ought to be.

Stock market prices are about the future. And maybe the future will be far better than we expect. But prices cannot be independent of the real world. And right now, there is a huge gap between the reality of the American economy…and the market value of American stocks.

The only way that gap closes is the subject of the rest of this short report. It's what we call The Big Loss. We don't have time to write a whole book on how to avoid it. But we don't have to. We’ll show you instead.

Pattern Recognition
Most of what you think about investing and the stock market is wrong. Did you know that 58% of stocks made no money for investors over the last 100 years? Studies show that the average investor does much worse than the market averages. And even if you were to keep your stocks for 100 years, they’d be unlikely to gain a penny of real value.

Markets follow cyclical patterns. Some of those patterns can last up to 73 years, top to top. You can’t afford to be on the wrong side of them. Nor can you afford to take the Big Loss, especially not late in your investment career.
While anything can happen in the short run, over a longer period market events follow patterns. A man, at 90, can occasionally father children; he can appear youthful… and win tennis matches. Still, in a few years, he’ll be dead. That’s a pattern that would be unwise to bet against.

The Pattern of Bear Markets: Structural and Cyclical


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In markets and economies…as well as politics…there are patterns too. The table above, provided by our Research Director Dan Denning in Wyoming, shows that there have been over 25 bear markets in US stock market history. The cyclical ones happen more often and are shorter. The ‘structural ones’--like the one we’re in now—last longer and hit harder.

The most important pattern in markets is what we call the Primary Trend — the deep current that moves events, regardless of what people know, want, or think.
Unfortunately, amid all the noise of constant market movements… and a hurricane-force wind of news and opinion…it can be difficult to make out the Primary Trend. You have to put your ear to the ground…tune out the background commotion as much as possible…and listen hard.

There are predictable patterns — a tree grows to a great height…then it rots. An Empire — even the most powerful one of all time — expands…and then shrinks. Up, down, up, down…round and round — cyclical patterns in the natural world, say, the cycles of the sun or of a four-cycle engine, are regular, and to a certain extent...foreseeable.

But market patterns are different. They are subject to ‘reflexivity.’ It’s a feedback loop where prices affect perceptions...which affect prices...which affect perception. Markets aren’t always efficient or rational. Sometimes they go a little mad.
That is, they react to what is happening…what has happened before…and to what people think is happening. It makes for a lot of uncertainty. And volatility. But that makes sense...

If market tops were as predictable as solar eclipses, for example, they would never happen at all. Investors would anticipate the climax and rush to sell…each afraid that prices would go down before he got out.
Instead, investors are always guessing…always wondering…and always subject to influence. Stocks go from very cheap to very expensive in long-term trends. During the entire 20th century, there were only three of these long-term cycles, as I’ll show you in a moment. But first, a quick word about money.

When the Money Goes, Everything Goes
Today’s money—the paper kind—loses value fast. We look at it in terms of gold. At the start of 1915, the 30 Dow Jones Industrials stocks (a good stand-in for quality stocks) were worth 2.65 ounces of gold. That ratio rose to over 18 as the first peak of the century was reached in August 1929. Then began the downdraft, ending in early 1933 with the Dow worth just 1.92 ounces. That was the first bottom-to-top-to-bottom cycle.

The next began in 1933. It continued to another top in the Dow stocks during the first week of 1966. The Dow crested at 28 ounces of gold. Thereafter, prices fell again and came to rest 14 years later (in January 1980) at 1.29 ounces of gold to the Dow. That was the second cycle.

The third began in 1982 with the Dow rising to a remarkable 42 ounces by the end of the century. And today, a quarter century on, the relationship between real prices (in gold) and real value (Dow companies producing useful products and services) is as strong as ever. Please look at the long-term Dow/Gold chart below.


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In 1915, you could have bought 2.65 ounces of gold for the price of the 30 Dow stocks. That ratio followed the up-and-down pattern we previously discussed… from a low under 2 to a high over 40. But when stocks were very cheap in terms of gold, they tended to become less cheap going forward. If they were expensive, the opposite happened.

Today, after more than a century of up-and-down movement, the ratio is at 11.1. Just a few months ago it was around 15, about the same as September of 1929. From then to today, investors in the Dow made only dividends and not a penny of capital gain. The value of America’s finest industries — compared to the value of real money — went nowhere.

In GDP terms, the gravity of the economy keeps stock prices in its orbit. In the boom of the 1960s, the Dow was worth about 1.2 times GDP, or 120%. To put that in perspective, the ‘mean’ (the long-term average) for the stocks-to-GDP ratio is about 82%. Anything higher, stocks are overvalued. Much higher, a bubble.

If you knew that the stock market went up and down…in long cycles lasting a decade or more …and you knew that over time you couldn’t expect to make any capital gains from your stocks…and that the only way to make progress was to trade in and out, buying when they were cheap and selling when they became expensive…wouldn’t you try to put this insight to work?

Market statistics show us that being in the right place at the right time is the key to big gains. To put it another way, ‘allocation’ is much more important than stock selection — or in Wall Street speak, beta is more important than alpha. The real question is how much of your wealth to have allocated to stocks at any given time.

We’ve developed a Dow/Gold trading system to help our readers. If you’d invested $100 in the Dow stocks starting on January 1, 1913, today you’d have $51,338 or $4,897,400 with dividends reinvested. But if you’d followed our Dow/Gold trade — with only five trades in the last century not including the initial investment — you’d have an account worth $56 million today.

Details of the performance of this trade are updated in Investment Director Tom Dyson's Gold Report, which is available (with other Research Reports and Private Briefings) to paying subscribers. Which brings me back to the market today.

The Big Loss
The surprising goal of the Dow/Gold trading system is not to make money. It’s to avoid the Big Loss. Right now, the risk of the Big Loss in US stocks, the US dollar, and US bonds, has never been greater. We show this each day in our regular letters to readers.

If you get hit by a car…or hit by the market…the result is the same – you're out of the game. Taking the Big Loss is the worst thing that can happen to you, because you can no longer hope for any gains.

It’s important to realize that just as it is hard to identify the Primary Trend, it is even harder to identify the investments that will be the big winners. Even if you are one of the best investors in the country, you win some, you lose some.

Overall, if you’re in tune with the Primary Trend, you can hope for growth.
But only if you are still in the game…only if you have avoided the Big Loss. That’s why we make avoiding the Big Loss our number one concern. Our whole strategy is built around staying in Maximum Safety Mode to avoid this loss. Why?

It is okay to lose money when you are young. It is part of the learning process. But if you work all your life to accumulate a nest egg you can't afford a wipeout. By then you will be in your 50s or 60s. You won't have time to recover.

You avoid the Big Loss by respecting the discipline of the Dow/Gold trade. Investments go up and down. When they are up, we don't necessarily have any idea where they will go next, but we know that they now carry the risk of a big loss. The more expensive they are…the more they can lose.

In short, we don't try to predict the stock market's next move. We simply pull out of investments when the risk of loss is elevated. Then, after stocks sell-off, the risk is reduced and we buy back in. The current state of our asset allocation strategy--between cash, stocks, precious metals, and cryptos--is published once a month in our Monthly Strategy Report (the May report, prepared by our Investment Director Tom Dyson, is due out in 10 days).

The Golden Rule
When we say things are “worth” more…it means that you can exchange them for more of other things. Money is merely a way to keep track and make transactions easier.

Gold arose as money because it worked, both as a store of value and a means of exchange. It doesn’t have any other significant purpose (other than ornamentation). And over time, gold doesn’t change much, relative to other things. As an economy grows there are more things available for money to buy. If the supply of money were fixed, prices would fall. There would be the same quantity of money but a larger volume of ‘stuff’ that it could buy.

But the quantity of gold tends to grow at the same speed as the economy itself. Mining is part of the economy, made easier by technology…but made harder as easy deposits are played out…and newer discoveries tend to be further afield and more costly to exploit. So, the balance between money and the things it buys doesn’t change very quickly. That is why a cache of gold, from hundreds of years ago still has about the same purchasing power today as it had when it was buried.


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The value of a nation’s productive companies (stocks) doesn't change much either – not compared to the goods and services available…or the money used to measure them. That's because their value comes from the real economy too. Companies are only worth what they can deliver to shareholders in profit. But taken together, they cannot produce more sales and profits than the economy permits.

The economy might grow at a three per cent rate. Consumers’ purchasing power should grow with the economy, not more nor less…meaning that the sales and profits available to the nation’s businesses grow at that rate too, along with the quantity of gold (the nation’s money supply).

We use gold to keep score. It is real money. As JP Morgan put it, ‘Gold is money. Everything else is credit.' The total amount of credit can be expanded easily.

Gold cannot. 'Printed' money can make it appear that things are 'going up.' It can juice up sales, GDP, and earnings. It can distort the whole picture.

Profits are especially susceptible. Typically, businesses pay their workers. Then, the workers buy products and services from the corporations they work for. So, profits are usually restrained by labor expenses.

But credit expansion gives businesses sales with no labor costs to offset them. It is as if the money came as if by magic, rather than from the real economy. And with no wages to pay, sales revenues fall disproportionately to the bottom line.

Stocks can appear to go ‘to the moon.’ But only in ‘funny money’ terms. In real money, they only go above 15 ounces of gold/Dow periodically, and temporarily. And as gold is always connected to the real economy and real output, the links between gold, GDP, and the companies that produce it can be stretched but never broken.

Often, we are told that these limits no longer apply. New technology…or new government… promises to make them obsolete. But since WWII – despite many technological breakthroughs -- no real, sustained increase in GDP growth has been observed. Instead, generally, GDP growth rates have fallen…and continue to fall.

Investors are lured to buy into new fads – dot.coms, cryptos, NFTs, AI. Some of them pan out. Mostly they do not. And since they are new and unknown, they all carry the risk of failure…and the Big Loss.

We stay away. When values are low, we favor the stocks. When they are expensive (over 15 ounces of gold/Dow) we favor real money, gold. And always, we look for where the Big Loss may come from…and try to avoid it. Now is one of those times.

What to Do Now
If our research is correct, then Americans are set to see at least $50 trillion in wealth disappear. That’s what the chart at the top of this letter shows. It was provided by our Research Director Dan Denning. American households added roughly $50 trillion in ‘net worth’ since the Covid lockdowns. Most of that was in stocks and real estate. We believe ALL that is now at risk.

Keep in mind it was never 'real’ wealth in the first place. It was the result of the Greatest Financial Experiment in History, as Tom called it. Reckless government spending and even more reckless Federal Reserve money printing have blown the biggest bubble ever – in stocks, corporate sales and earnings, GDP, bonds, real estate…almost everything.

Like my other warnings every ten years or so, we expect this one to be ignored. Or by some, ridiculed. And if it makes you angry, we understand. As we said before, no one likes being told that they stand to lose everything they have.

But here's the important point….you don't HAVE to lose everything. If you play your cards right you can turn this into a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy great stocks again...but only when they are cheap. Then, sit back, collect dividends, and watch them compound.

Could we be wrong? Of course. There were things we missed in the past that postponed the day of reckoning in previous cycles. China entered the world economy and poured trillions of dollars into American bonds (allowing us to run up greater deficits than I could ever imagined).

There were also our reckless central bankers like Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and now Jerome Powell. They didn't stick to their job of providing liquidity in a crisis. Instead, they slashed interest rates, bailed out Wall Street banks, and poured gasoline on a fire that was already raging out of control (we believe the Fed itself may cease to exist once this next great crisis comes).

And our politicians played a part, too. Both parties in Washington have run up a debt tab our nation can never repay. For years we’ve warned that the size of the debt would trigger a crisis. That crisis would lead to much higher inflation–or worse, the destruction of the US dollar (and your savings) as we know it. And now the stock market, too.

Maybe President Donald Trump save us. Among some Americans, there is a great deal of enthusiasm that Donald Trump and his team are our last best chance to shrink the size of government, roll back the tide of insane ‘woke’ ideology in our schools and towns, and restore the economic prospects of the American Middle Class through ‘fair’ trade and tariffs.

It would be great if all that happens. But history–and our own experience in Washington–tells me it's unlikely. Price action in the market this spring suggests something deeper and more permanent is happening, to the detriment of US stocks and the dollar.

More importantly, your investment plan CANNOT depend on political forces beyond your control. If you read history, you'll know there are eerie similarities between Donald Trump and Herbert Hoover. Both rode into office on a wave of enthusiasm. Both embraced the use of tariffs to restore American competitiveness and waged. But how did it work out?

A year after Hoover signed into law the Smoot-Hawley tariffs, the stock market collapsed. The Great Depression followed. The Dow Jones Industrials did not make a new high for 25 years.

We believe the same thing could happen today. And yes, in the past, our warnings have been early. But in this case, it is better to be early than late. We began writing this invitation earlier this year. Now, it’s clear we’re no longer early. What next?
We've taken the time to write to you today with a broad overview of the key forces moving markets right now. If you do nothing else but include these in your thinking, that’s fine with us. Job done.

We thought it was a good idea to introduce new readers to our ‘big picture’ thinking at such a critical time. Our records show that you may not receive all the research we provide. If you’re a serious investor or at all concerned about your financial future, we’d like to make it easier for you to decide if our work can help.

For the next five days, we’re trying something new. You can take out a seven-day trial of our work and review all of it. That includes the upcoming Monthly Strategy Report for May. It includes Tom’s weekly Market Note and Dan’s weekly Research Note. It also includes all our Research Reports and Private Briefings (recorded and transcribed in-depth interviews with other analysts and experts).

We’ve never offered a free trial before. And we’re not prepared to lower our price (which would be unfair to existing and loyal subscribers). We also hate trying to sell our services and we don’t accept any paid advertising.

We’d prefer to spend all our time and brain power trying to figure out what’s going on and making our research better, more useful, and more profitable for you. If that’s not for you, that’s fine. We won’t make the offer again. It’s back to business as usual tomorrow.

But we started getting many new readers to our work earlier this year. We realized that you may be one of those readers who felt like you were joining a conversation that had been going on for a long time. We wanted to take a few moments of your time to explain the main ideas—the Primary Trend, the Big Loss, Maximum Safety Mode, and of course the Dow/Gold ratio and how to use it.

Click here to start your free seven-day trial to Bonner Private Research.
Regards,
Bill Bonner
Founder, Bonner Private Research

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A sober look at America's decline

This article by Patrick Barron was posted at Going Postal last week. I have his permission to repost it.

Alasdair Macleod
April 22, 2025 at 7:25 AM Edited by BWM

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David Hume’s Insight Explains America’s Economic Decline
Only Sound Money Will Clear International Settlement Accounts
16th April 2025 Patrick Barron America, Economics, Finance, Markets, Trade


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Halo Gold Bar Bullion Vault – Licence CC BY-ND 2.0

Since he was a young up-and-coming property magnate in New York City, Donald Trump has been fixated on what he believes to be foreigners’ cheating on international trading terms to the detriment of the US. He believes, along with many Americans, that foreigners have stolen all our good, high paying jobs by manipulating their own currencies, subsidizing their home industries, and erecting protective trade barriers–in the form of tariffs and quotas–that make American goods uncompetitive. He believes that erecting high tariffs against foreign goods will level the playing field, so to speak, and restore American industry and high paying jobs.

In summary, Donald Trump is a firm believer in Autarky and Mercantilism, discredited economic theories that tout national self-sufficiency on the one hand and exporting more than one imports on the other.

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Foreigners Are Not to Blame for America’s Economic Woes
Whatever one may think about America’s economic progress or lack thereof and about whether or not America is losing good paying jobs, foreigners are not to blame. We ourselves are to blame, and there are several ways in which we “do it to ourselves”. The first and most important occurred at Bretton Woods in 1944 when the dollar was granted international reserve currency standing as the equivalent of gold at thirty-five dollars per ounce. The thinking, which was challenged at the time in a series of articles by New York Times columnist Henry Hazlitt, was that as long as the US had enough gold to completely back its currency at that price, the international trade clearing system would function just as well and with less cost than the cumbersome system, as it was described, of shipping gold back and forth among nations. For example, if England imported more goods from France than vice versa, then England would owe France money. It would “clear” its shortfall by shipping gold to France. Under the Bretton Woods system, England would send American dollars to France or ask an American bank to pay France dollars held in its account in New York. Much easier, or so almost everyone thought at the time. Although he spoke in more diplomatic terms, Henry Hazlitt felt that the temptation to print money without gold backing was too tempting even for Americans. He was right.

De Gaulle and Rueff Suspected American Cheating
The problems arose when the US started printing more money than it could back with gold at thirty-five dollars an ounce, just as Hazlitt feared. Charles De Gaulle, president of France in the 1960’s, and Jacques Rueff, his long time chief financial advisor, were both economic scholars of the “old school” who suspected that Americans were cheating; i.e., printing dollars without sufficient gold backing. De Gaulle ordered the Bank of France to exchange eighty percent of its dollar holdings for gold specie at the set price. The race, as they say, was on. There ensued the equivalent of an old-fashioned bank run on the US gold supply by foreign central banks. When America’s gold supply became dangerously low and demand for gold redemption had not slowed, President Nixon suspended gold redemption. Because of its post WWII economic position and its critical defense support of NATO against an aggressive Soviet Union, America’s major trading partners acquiesced in the gold suspension and the world went on a dollar reserve system unbacked by anything other than faith in the US.

This was the beginning of an explosion in fiat money and American budget deficits. This lethal combination of fiat dollars becoming the world’s premier reserve currency meant that the US never really “cleared” its international trading account again in real money; i.e., gold. Today America is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world.

The Consequences to America for Violating David Hume’s “Price Specie Flow Mechanism”
In a recent interview on Liberty and Finance Jeffrey Tucker explained the importance of clearing international trade in sound money, namely gold, which was the well accepted doctrine of the world for centuries. Born over three hundred years ago Scottish philosopher David Hume explained why nations that settle international trade in gold will always tend toward price equilibrium. No nation needs to manipulate its trading terms out of fear that it will run out of gold or import so much gold that its price level will rise so high that its products will become uncompetitive in the world market. Hume termed his discovery the ”Price Specie Flow Mechanism”. If a country sells much more in the world market than it buys, which is the Mercantilists’ desire, the price level will rise so high that its products will become uncompetitive, ending the importation of gold for goods and services. Likewise, if a country imports more than it sells, its price level will fall; making its products more competitive and the flow will reverse. This was the accepted theory for centuries, during which international trade and living standards expanded to reach new historical heights.

The Consequences of the Failure of Bretton Woods
But, Jeffrey Tucker explains, what happens when gold, the “specie” in Hume’s theory, is no longer used for settlement? What happens when fiat money, which can and was manufactured in vast quantities out of thin air, becomes the settlement medium? Enter the failure of Bretton Woods, which resulted in the rise of the fiat dollar reserve system. Tucker explains that America became corrupted by its newly found money spigot. It no longer had to compete with the world, because it could always simply print more money. And print more money it did! In spades!

Now let’s see how this played out in Austrian economic terms. Austrian economics explains that all economic life is conducted at the individual level, what Austrians call Methodological Individualism. The ability of America to import ‘til the cows come home and settle with dollars printed out of thin air meant that it really did not have to compete in worldwide markets anymore. The main thing that America exported was dollars! At the individual level, this meant that America could accede to just about all welfare lobbies. Americans no longer really had to worry about getting a good education, working hard, etc. in order to get good jobs. Its radicalized labor unions could strike for above world labor rates. As Tucker explains, a half a century later American workers are overpaid in international markets. Its goods are shoddily produced. Industry after industry has failed. Government schools turn out students who rank very far down world survey results. America has been covering up this scandal with fiat money, which is just more of the same old snake oil that got it there.

There Is a Solution
The only solution is to go back on the gold standard. As long as America can print fiat money to pay for imports it will print fiat money. But under the discipline of the gold standard, Americans will have to produce good quality products at world market prices in order to earn the foreign exchange (gold) needed to settle international trade. It’s the only way. Erecting tariffs, as desired by President Trump, solves nothing and merely exacerbates the situation. America must learn to compete in the world on equal terms; i.e., it cannot simply print fiat dollars. It must produce goods that foreigners wish to buy at prices that foreigners are willing to pay. Becoming an autarkic nation, a la North Korea, will condemn Americans to poverty. America needs to become an honest, commercially oriented nation. If not, the world will pass it by just as has happened to other great nations in the past.

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The Dangers of a Cashless Society

Before delving into the dangers of eliminating cash and mandating that all transactions be conducted by digital means, let us briefly discuss the legal aspects of money. In the United States, as in all economies that have legal tender laws, only cash is recognized as money. Some may think that the balance of their bank accounts is money too, but that is not quite the case. Your bank balance is one step removed from legal money.

All banks must maintain minimum balances of reserves, either in cash held in their vaults or in their “reserve accounts” with their local Federal Reserve Bank branch (There are twelve of them). These reserve account balances may be converted to real money – i.e., cash – at your bank’s discretion. Bank reserve balances plus cash held in bank vaults—a very small amount – are reserves for the banking system but the total cash in our economy also includes cash held outside the banking system, such as the money in your wallet, cookie jar, or personal safe deposit vault.

The total of bank reserves plus cash held outside the banking system is known as the monetary base. The monetary base is not the same as the money supply. The vast majority of the money supply is composed of bank credit not backed by reserves. When banks make loans, they credit your account, which becomes bank credit money. Yes, this money was created by the bank out of thin air. Notice that the banks did not create reserves, only credit money, which is not the same thing.

As of July 2023, the monetary base in the United States was $5.5 trillion, whereas M3, total bank credit money, was $20.9 trillion! So, if everyone demanded real money (cash), the banks would be able to honor only about one fourth of the requests. The possibility of your bank failing is real. Over nine thousand US banks failed during the Great Depression of the 1930’s.

Risks of Electronic Payments

Your ability to hold real cash, and not just bank balances accessible by check or electronic means, protects you from the inevitable infrastructure problems associated with any electronic system but also from instantaneous seizure of at least some of your money. Cash is anonymous, whereas a bank account is not. You will still be able to function to the limit of the cash you happen to have on hand.

Now let’s say that cash has been eliminated by some legal means and you have angered the powers-that-be for some reason, probably for opposing them and asking others to oppose them, too. All the banks have to do is freeze your bank account or eliminate it entirely. We have two examples of this very thing happening in the recent past. First, the government of Canada froze the bank accounts of all those participating in the Canadian truckers’ general strike plus those who helped them. Secondly, British politician Nigel Farage had all his accounts closed for political reasons and found that no other British bank would serve him. Without the means to use money, Farage came very close to emigrating. Just think about that for a moment. You could not fuel your car, buy groceries, pay your rent, or a hundred other things without access to a bank account.

Risks of Central Bank Digital Currency

All the world’s major central banks are drawing up plans to institute digital currencies that they themselves control. This is very dangerous for our civil liberties. Now the government would not have to seek the cooperation of the banks to freeze your accounts or “de-bank” you entirely, as the British banking system did to Nigel Farage. At the stroke of a keypad, you would not have access to your accounts. No fuel for your car, food for your family, heat for your home, etc. No one should be allowed to hold such enormous power, which really is a life-and-death issue. Naturally it is being promoted as efficient and modern. It is no such thing. It is civil liberties issue and needs to be stopped.
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Thursday, August 31, 2023

Gold Will Destroy Keynesian Fallasies

Leaders of the Western democracies are unprepared to deal with forces that will end the fiat dollar’s dominance as the preferred medium of international trade settlement, in place since the end of the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971.

The BRICS summit, currently taking place in Johannesburg, South Africa, is expected to include an agreement on a first step toward establishing an alternative international trade settlement system based on commodities, which would certainly include gold. Dozens of non-Western and even some Western affiliated nations are attending with great interest. Six new members have been invited to join Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Although the coming change may be characterized as one between the Western democracies and the BRICS nations, the real battle is one of ideas between Keynesian economic theory and gold. The winner will be gold.

As Murray N. Rothbard explained in What Has Government Done to Our Money?, gold was never proven to be inferior to fiat money. The gold standard was not replaced by a better monetary system. It was suppressed in stages to satisfy the state’s insatiable need for money--first to make war and then to corrupt the people via welfare. The result, of course, has been never-ending wars, creeping expansion of the welfare state, unsustainable public deficits, and accelerating debasement of the currency.

The challenge to the fiat dollar began with its debasement, which lowered its purchasing power to gold by 98% since 1971, and accelerated with introduction of the so-called “Russian Sanctions” of freezing Russian owned assets in the West and denying Russia access to the international dollar trade settlement messaging system known as SWIFT. Russian monetary expert Sergey Glazyev has led the movement toward an alternative system.

Putting “Paid” to Keynesian Fallacies

Introducing gold into the trading system will expose the main fallacy of Keynesian economics; i.e., the elevation of aggregate demand to prominence in a nation’s economy rather than production. Keynes shunned Say’s Law of Markets in his General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money in order to hide his theory’s internal contradictions. As put succinctly by Emile Woolf, “Keynes endows the concept of ‘aggregate demand’ with god-like status while disregarding ‘production’-the only means of satisfying it.” Jean-Baptiste Say shows that production is required in order to enjoy the benefits of consumption.

On the face of it, it is hard to believe that anyone would believe that production either isn’t required for consumption or that it magically appears. Yet, this rather upside down theory appealed to politicians for obvious reasons; i.e., it gave them carte blanche to spend, all with money created out of thin air by the central bank. Rather than economize and prioritize spending that was absolutely necessary for the benefit of the entire nation, politicians were told by Keynes that it was their duty to spend if only to pay people to dig holes and others to fill them up.

Basics of a Gold Settlement System

The new international trade settlement system will require settlement in gold. A possible mechanism has been outlined by Alasdair Macleod of Goldmoney.com, which I have included at the end of this article. The benefits of the new system will become obvious to every nation, not just the current BRICS members. The political benefits are that no one nation can control or manipulate the system for its unearned benefit. The economic benefits are that government spending will be minimized so that resources can be allocated to production rather than state aggrandizement. A member can expand imports only by expanding exports. This puts market pressure on member governments to reform their internal economies in order to increase production.

To artificially increasing demand, per Keynesian orthodoxy, would be counterproductive, because gold would drain from the nation’s gold settlement account and imports would be suspended. Therefore, the system encourages sound economic practices within its members’ individual economies. Printing money, excessive and unnecessary regulations, excessive taxation, and excessive government spending do nothing to aid a member’s ability to engage in trade. Nations like the US who have huge welfare obligations and who have politically connected industries that do not add to the nation’s capital base will struggle. Having lots of nuclear weapons will be irrelevant and having bases around the world will be liabilities rather than assets.

An important point made by Macleod is that over time the gold settlement system for international trade will expand into members’ internal monetary systems. In other words fiat currencies, which can be inflated/debased by governments, will be thrown on the ash heap of history. They will become “barbarous relics” instead of gold, as Keynes predicted in 1924.


Possible Gold Settlement System by Alasdair Macleod

Credit must take its value from something else. We assume that commercial bank credit takes it value from bank notes, which is a central bank’s credit. Equally, if you and I agree an exchange for future settlement, we will value the settlement in credit, either in cash notes or bank credit. Each form or pool of credit is quite distinct, with all credit taking its value from another pool of credit.This is why gold almost never circulates in settlement of transactions. But for the whole system of credit to be stable in its value it must be attached to legal money, which for all currencies is gold, despite governments not permitting central bank credit to be redeemable in gold today.

My plan draws on the fact that in a gold-backed currency, gold is almost never used in settlement, settlement being in bank notes or more commonly commercial bank credit, both of which derive their value from gold. The objective, therefore, must be to devise a system of credit firmly tied to gold, without gold actually having to change hands. The result is a plan drawing upon elements of the Bretton Woods system, whereby exchanges of the gold currency for physical gold can only happen between central banks withdrawing or adding bullion from or to the New Issuer.

Accordingly, I suggest the following:

1. A New Issuer is established for the sole purpose of taking in gold, which is earmarked in designated vaults, against which it issues credit denominated in gold by weight (i.e. a gold gram) in the ratio of 1 unit to 2.5 units of currency (credit). This is designed to ensure Sir Isaac Newton’s ratio of gold to currency is maintained at 40% backing, while boosting the reserves of a participating central bank reallocating some or all of its gold reserves to the New Issuer. These gold currency reserves are recorded as an asset on the balance sheets of participating central banks, enabling them to issue credit denominated in the gold currency to commercial banks which have an account with them, and for the purpose of extending credit into the settlement system. This credit extension is recorded as a liability on the central bank’s balance sheet, and an asset on that of the commercial bank. It ties in the pool of central bank credit initially created by the New Issuer, into the pool of commercial bank credit used to finance cross-border trade, including the acquisition and sale of commodities.

2. A central bank can only submit gold currency units for redemption to the New Issuer to the extent that it has previously deposited bullion with it in the 1:2.5 ratio.

3. The credit denominated in gold is not initially intended for general circulation. Commercial bank credit denominated in the new currency will be created in the normal way for trade finance and cross-border sales and purchases of commodities. In any event, the whole system of credit linked to gold depends on genuine demand for it, unlike fiat currency which is debased by governments.

4. Commercial banks issuing this credit must be members of a clearing facility, which will also include central banks as members. Note that the New Issuer is not involved in any clearing activity: it simply runs a ledger recording the initial credit created in favour of a depositing central bank, and of any subsequent amendments based on additions and withdrawals of bullion by individual central banks.

5. Importers and exporters obtain trade finance denominated in the trade settlement currency from commercial bank members of the clearing facility, created in the normal way.

6. Since commercial bank credit ends up circulating locally, a government will have to decide whether to introduce exchange controls limiting its circulation to importers and exporters to “protect” its own fiat currency. Practicalities suggest that fiat currencies will be eventually displaced by the new gold currency units because of the stability of its value.

7. Only central banks registered with the New Issuer have the right to demand gold in exchange for the gold currency from the New Issuer. This ensures that the value of the new gold currency remains firmly tied to gold and is the sound basis for the value of credit issued by commercial banks for the purpose of trade finance.”

Of course, Glazyev may have other ideas.


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Dollar Hegemony Ending Due to Geopolitical Change

Since the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944 the dollar has been the world’s preferred reserve currency; i.e., the major trading nations of the world were willing to hold dollars in vast amounts to satisfy their need for a readily accepted worldwide payment medium. Even when in 1971 the US had violated its solemn promise to redeem its dollars for gold at thirty-five dollars per ounce, nations still were willing to hold dollars.

Germany Shies Away from Monetary Leadership

In the mid-2010’s I was certain that Germany would abandon the Euro and reinstate the Deutsche Mark. It was clear, especially to some German central bankers, that Germany was being cheated by the European Central Bank (ECB). Germany’s TARGET2 surplus represented a vast excess of German exports to other European Union members who were pledging near worthless government and corporate bonds in exchange for newly printed Euros from the ECB. These bonds would never be redeemed for anything of real value; therefore, it was simple rational self-interest for Germany to quit the charade. I predicted that such an action would cause the Euro zone to collapse and make Germany’s DM the preferred unit of trade in Europe and possibly threaten the dollar for worldwide reserve dominance. Obviously, this never happened. Why?

Germany knew and feared that alarm bells would sound all over the world that, once again, Germany was rising and would dominate Europe. The French, especially, would panic for at least two reasons. One, the collapse of the Euro would force France to make a stark choice. Either adopt the DM, as I expected most northern tier European countries to do, or try to revert to the French Franc, knowing that almost no other nation would be willing to hold Francs. France would be cut off from international trade unless it reformed its unsustainable welfare system. But every time in the past when France tried to institute any modicum of welfare reform, the population rioted. Two, France benefited immensely from internal EU transfer payments, most importantly farm subsidies. French farmers would be forced to reform or go bankrupt, ending a cushy lifestyle that seemed to be synonymous with France itself. The stark fact was that France had nuclear weapons and Germany did not. It was unthinkable that either Germany or Japan, along with Italy the losing Axis powers of WWII, would ever get nuclear weapons. Independent control of one’s own nuclear arsenal was the minimum stake for playing the reserve currency game. Thereafter, the game belonged only to nations with large economies that produced a variety of export goods and services desired throughout the world. That left only America in the game.

The great question is why Germany, even though it eschewed nuclear weapons under its own control, would ascent to giving up the DM and adopt the Euro in the first place. There are two answers. One, Germany wanted to reunite East and West Germany. The French, who legally held veto power over such a move, made adopting the Euro a condition for reunification. But why couldn’t Germany just ignore this now irrelevant agreement? Answer number two is just a theory but probably pertains to some extent, large or small to all major European nations. Germany had suffered between six and seven million military losses during the two great wars. (World War I losses) (World War II losses) Germany’s best and brightest, its future leadership, was lost for all time. These were wars in which the elite of all belligerents fought. Such leadership can never be replaced. The loss of future leadership was equally harsh on the other major European combatants. In the two world wars Russia/USSR suffered between nine and thirteen million military dead. France suffered a million and a half dead, the vast majority in the 1914 Great War. The United Kingdom suffered slightly over one million (this number excludes India, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa.) As former member of the European Parliament Godfrey Bloom has stated:

“The 1914-18 war killed the best of the British Empire. The 1939-45 war killed what remained. Then the welfare state danced on their graves.”

The Event that Changed Everything

Then a great geopolitical event occurred--Deng Xiaoping rose to power in China following the death of Mao Zedong. Deng instituted sweeping, capitalistic economic reforms, and China rose to become a rival to America in terms of economic power. China had obtained nuclear weapons under Mao. Despite the fact that China was and remains a one-party dictatorship, it now had the two ingredients to challenge the US dollar—a large economy and nuclear weapons. China was blackmail proof. Like China, Russia had thrown off the worst of its Soviet economic policies under Yeltsin and Putin, but its small population and relatively backward economy was not in the same league with America and China. Nevertheless, after the US, NATO, and the European Union spurned Russia’s attempt to rejoin the old Concert of Europe (after all, Russia had been a great ally in WWII and had every reason to believe that, now that it had thrown off communism, it could become a vital part of Europe once again), it gradually saw its future as aligned with China.

So, what does all this have to do with the end of dollar hegemony? The answer is that the new Asian nexus saw a way to break the US use of dollar hegemony as a political tool. The Achilles Heel of the dollar is that it is a fiat currency. This suits the US political establishment very well, since it allows the US to inflate the dollar at will to pay for welfare and warfare. It also allows the US to impose sanctions on its perceived enemies, such as Russia and Iran, by cutting them out of the SWIFT international trade messaging system. It is similar to what happened to Brexit advocate Nigel Farage in the UK. For strictly political reasons his bank closed his accounts, and Farage was unable to find another that would accept his money for deposit. No bank account, no way to exist in a modern economy. Farage feared that he might be forced to leave his own country. The US-imposed Russian sanctions froze billions of Russian owned assets. But rather than cause Russia to back down in Ukraine, it seems to have sped up the process, started by Russia, to develop a new world reserve currency backed in some measure by gold. The “BRICS” nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—have been joined by dozens of others who are determined to break away from the fiat dollar hegemony and use an honest, gold-backed trading settlement system. This new BRICS+ group claims that it will announce a first step in pursuing this goal at its meeting in Johannesburg at the end of August.

The US Will Be Forced to Embrace Gold…or Become Isolated

There are many who dismiss this development. After all, the US and the US dollar have been supreme worldwide for eighty years. These critics fail to understand real economics, real monetary theory, and real international statesmanship. The US has been enthralled by three destructive concepts. The first is Lord Keynes’ economics, which ignores Say’s Law of Markets, effectively endowing the Keynesian concept of ‘aggregate demand’ with god-like status while disregarding ‘production’-the only means of satisfying it. The second is the so-called Modern Monetary Theory, which posits that sovereign states can never go bankrupt due to their ability to print all the money they need. And the third is out-and-out arrogance since the end of WWII, which deigns to cancel entire nations. All this will come to an end when gold returns as the focal point of the BRICS’ monetary reform project. At that point the US will start losing friends until it, too, reluctantly regains its senses and returns to gold and honest dealing and honest, respectful statesmanship. America will need new leaders for this task. They are there, waiting to be called by the people. The US and the world will be a much better place as a result.

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Thursday, June 22, 2023

Do Not Mourn the Fiat Dollar's Demise as a Reserve Currency

The Promise and Betrayal of Bretton Woods

The US dollar has been the world’s premier reserve currency since the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944. Until 1971 it was redeemable by foreign central banks in gold at $35 per ounce. As long as the US did not print more dollars than it could redeem in gold at that price, all was well. But, as Henry Hazlitt predicted, the US did print more dollars and was forced either to abandon gold redeemability or to devalue the dollar to gold at some higher exchange rate. In 1971 President Nixon chose to abandon gold redeemability. This nefarious act opened the floodgates to US spending.

The Destructive Siren Song of a Pure Fiat Dollar

Despite the fact that it could not be redeemed for gold, the dollar continued to be used as a reserve currency by most of the world. American politicians could not have been happier. The stockpiling of dollars in foreign central banks dampened higher prices in the US and allowed politicians to spend on war and welfare. There seemed no need for spending discipline; in fact the Keynesian economists in government, the financial press, and academia place spending as more important than savings. Spending was supposed to stimulate the economy. Therefore savings was bad; i.e., the so-called paradox of thrift.

But the US dollar’s end as the world’s premier reserve currency is nigh. Printing money in unbelievable amounts has led to the dollar’s loss of purchasing power by over 98% to gold ($35/$2,000) Weaponization of the dollar in international trade has accelerated that process. Foreign owned dollar accounts in American banks have been frozen or confiscated, plus the US has cut off some foreign governments, such as Russia and Iran, from the international financial messaging system known as SWIFT. Led by Russia, the BRICS+ nations will abandon the dollar for international trade settlement and reintroduce gold in some form. No nation has a legal or practical monopoly on gold. Furthermore, gold cannot be debased--it has no counterparty. Therefore, we should expect the entire world to embrace gold for international trade settlement in the coming years.

Americans should welcome the end of the fiat dollar. The fiat dollar has been a tool for government to rob not only the rest of the world but the American people, too. Monetary debasement destroys capital. We see irrefutable evidence of this in the fact that America spends as much on defense as the next ten nations combined. Defense spending is non-productive. It may be necessary, of course, but excessive defense spending represents real resources withheld from meeting the needs of the American people. American industry has been starved of the capital it needs. The inevitable rise in consumer prices represents a real transfer of wealth to the early receivers of the newly printed dollars from the rest of society, especially retirees attempting to live on a lifetime of savings. Their savings diminishs in purchasing power every day.

Fiat Money Corrupts Society

But there is more, much more. Fiat money produced at the click of a computer at the Fed corrupts the people. Rather than becoming self-reliant, the people become dependent upon government to provide them with the basics of modern life—schooling, healthcare, employment, housing, you-name-it. Why prepare oneself for a lifetime of toil when the government has unlimited money to take care of your every need? This is a prescription not only for class warfare and social unrest but for preventing the nation from meeting its productive potential due to the lack of production from millions who are perfectly capable of contributing something to society. I daresay that in addition to government the people themselves rationalize their dependency as merely taking one of the many “entitlements” due to them as being fortunate enough to have been born into a fairly prosperous country. But whence comes this so-called entitlement? Who provides it? Not government, although government may be the legal transfer agent. Entitlements come from the toil of one’s fellow citizens. It can come from nowhere else.

The Nations of the World Are Moving On, With or Without the US

Led by China and later by Russia, some nations of the world, not wholly within the US orbit, have been building the necessary infrastructure and rules for conflict resolution and increasing trade and investment. Countries representing the vast majority of the world’s population, and also most of the world’s proven commodities, are intent upon industrializing as did the West. The basis for world economic development is sound money, which means gold. Only sound money can provide the irreplaceable information about the true costs and benefits of economic development. Only sound money can reassure investors--whether they are individuals, corporations, or governments—that their investments are secure and that payments will be made in non-depreciating money. This is only fair, and the US and its allies should join this project rather than ignore or fight it.


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Sound Money Is Required for Real Budget Discipline

Sound Money Is Required for Real Budget Discipline

1. https://cdn.mises.org/styles/slidesh...?itok=JNMsQOOn

TAGS Big GovernmentThe FedInflationMoney and BanksPolitics

1. LEE ESTO EN ESPAÑOL

06/15/2023Patrick Barron
Listen to the Audio Mises Wire version of this article.
News here in the USA has been full of the latest farce known as raising or not raising the debt ceiling. After the usual dog-and-pony show, a budget deal was reached. But was it progress? It was a foregone conclusion that the debt ceiling would be raised, yet again, for the simple mathematical reason that unless the budget is cut, via spending cuts or increases in taxes, it can do nothing else.
With the budget deficit projected to be (hold on to your hat!) $1.5 TRILLION, that is a political impossibility. Notice that I used the adjective “political.” Of course, technically it isn’t impossible to balance the budget or even run a surplus. But under the current monetary regime of fiat money that can be produced in any amount at the click of a computer at the Fed, there is no support either in Congress or among the electorate to do so.
All of us are corrupted collectively, as described by German economist Thorsten Polleit. Since the sky will not fall, yet, by printing more fiat money, no one can be expected to support real budget cuts—not the military, retirees, Medicare and Medicaid recipients . . . the list goes on and on. The Fed will continue to print money to support the rising government debt, in nominal terms only, until the dollar’s purchasing power is destroyed.
The only way to prevent this catastrophe is to return to sound money; i.e., linking the money stock to a commodity, almost certainly gold. By “linking” I mean that what the people call “money,” whether in the form of paper certificates, bank accounts, or some other form such as digital currency, is backed 100 percent by the commodity. The commodity is money. Nothing else. Certificates, bank accounts, or other forms are merely convenient ways to transfer ownership of claims upon the money stock.
Yes, this is the only way. Forget about electing or appointing the “right” people to Congress or the Fed. As long as any person or entity CAN print fiat money, it WILL print fiat money. It is illogical to support a monetary regime in which printing fiat money is permissible and expect that anyone exists who will refrain from doing so. Therefore, turn off your TV. Stop reading the business press. The US federal debt will grow and grow, and nothing can stop it under the current monetary regime.
The Return of Gold as Money
So, is that it? We are doomed? NO! Gold will return! Why? For the simple and rational reason that gold and only gold works. For five thousand years gold was money and money was gold. Gold allows complete strangers to engage in productive exchange. Not only complete strangers but even enemies can engage in productive exchange. You don’t like the Russians? OK, but you don’t have to like them in order to buy their natural gas. Cooperative exchange means, per se, that both parties expect to benefit.
For all I know my local hardware store owner may be an Atlanta Braves fan, about as low as it gets for a Philadelphia Phillies fan like me. Nevertheless, I appreciate the convenience and quality of his store’s products and services, and I’m sure he appreciates my patronage. This is not a frivolous matter. Gold allows everyone to benefit from a worldwide division of labor that requires no vetting of personal or political views or affiliations. In other words, gold leads us to a world of peace and prosperity.
The “East” Will Lead the Way, and Eventually the “West” Will Follow
The era of fiat money and dollar hegemony is coming to an end. Russia, China, India, the Arab nations, South Africa, Brazil, and others—let us call them the “East”—soon will settle their international trade in gold. It will work. Then the Western fiat money nations, led by the United States, will watch as, one by one, former allies start jumping ship. This does not mean that they are willing to be dominated by Russia or China, for example, only that real prosperity is dependent upon honest money; i.e., gold. The dollar will be thrown on the ash heap of history just like the French assignat, the Confederate dollar, the German papiermark, and more recently the Zimbabwean dollar. Of course, real statesmen, especially American, would understand this and start preparing their nations for this immense change in which military power is irrelevant.
Time for Humility
It never hurts to remind ourselves that the world is a very big place and America is just one small part of it. We must learn to be good citizens of the world, honest in our commercial affairs, friendly and respectful toward all, and meddle in the internal affairs of no one. For a nation that has arrogantly assumed that it is special, this will be a very hard pill to swallow. American military power and the dollar as the world’s premier reserve currency created a hubris that is evident in many areas.
Preposterously we claim the power and authority to change the weather and the earth’s temperature, to control the health outcomes for billions of people through international vaccine mandates, the ability and maybe authority to change a person’s biological sex . . . the list goes on and on. It is time for a return to humility, honesty, and above all freedom of the individual to live his life as he, and only he, sees fit.
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Monday, April 3, 2023

Simplicity and Honesty in New Central Bank Golden Currency System

For many months now Alasdair Macleod of Goldmoney.com has been writing about the efforts of a group of non-Western nations, led by Russian economist Sergey Glazyez, to establish a new settlement system for international trade. For many months I have been carefully following Mr. Macleod’s explanations of this initiative and have been privileged to correspond with him to gain a better understanding of what may well be the most momentous and consequential economic and financial initiative in decades. Therefore, much of what you read here has been vetted by Mr. Macleod, although I take full responsibility for any errors that may have arisen due to my lesser understanding.

The impetus for the creation of a new currency for international trade settlement stems from two sources. The first was the continued debasement of the current medium of international trade settlement—the US dollar, since 1944 the world’s premier reserve currency. For many years the dollar’s value has been steadily weakened, so that today it is worth only two cents of its value in relation to gold in 1971, the year that President Nixon closed the US gold window. Since the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944 until the autumn of 1971, the US had pledged to redeem dollars for gold at $35 per ounce. The world trusted that the US would not expand its money supply without first accumulating more gold to back the new dollars at the agreed upon exchange value. Of course, the US cheated almost from day one, but especially after the end of President Eisenhower’s administration in 1960 and the expansion of the US welfare/warfare state under Presidents Kennedy and Johnson. It didn’t take long for astute economists in Europe, initially in France, to figure out what was happening. The predictable run on the US gold supply ensued, forcing Nixon’s hand. To his everlasting discredit he took the short-term, easy way out. His alternative would have been to devalue the dollar to gold and pledge to end dollar debasement.

The second impetus came from the sanctions directed at Russia and a few others, which froze Russia’s dollar assets in Western banks (some would call this theft) and cut Russia out of the SWIFT international messaging system used for settling trade. Iran, for example, had been the cut out of SWIFT previous to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has signaled its intention to join this new system. The West has infuriated many non-Western nations by using financial and economic sanctions as punishment over non-trade issues. Commentators call this “weaponization of the dollar”. But the non-Western nations are building a better system to using the dollar as the reserve currency and SWIFT as the messaging system.

Establishing a Gold Currency for Trade Settlement

In his recent (February 23, 2023) weekly essay, Alasdair Macleod moves from the theoretical to the practical steps that are required to establish this new settlement system. He titles his essay “CBDCs—The good, the bad, the ugly”. The term “CBCDs” refers to Central Bank Digital Currencies. Mr. Macleod quickly explains that there is no need for CBCDs to establish the new trade settlement system. Ordinary accounting systems and clearing house mechanisms are perfectly capable of dealing with international trade accounts; therefore, any foray by central banks into establishing their own digital currencies is for other, possibly nefarious, purposes. Thus, the “bad” and “ugly” role of CBDCs to which Mr. Macleod alludes.

The key insight for the establishment of a new trade settlement system is to create a new gold backed currency. Macleod’s eight bullet points lead the reader through the process. Once understood, one sees its simplicity and inherent stability and honesty. A “New Central Bank” (NCB) will be established in which each member nation’s central bank has a gold currency account. The size of the account depends upon how much gold the member houses in one of the system’s approved vaults. The size and stability of each member’s internal currency becomes less relevant. What is important is the size of its gold holding.

So, immediately we see that a third party ensures that payment in specie cannot be abrogated, as the US did in 1971, because the gold used for trade settlement will be housed outside any single member’s control.

Net Settlement Will Not Require Vast Amounts of Gold

The system of net settlement is the same, in a mechanical sense, to that of ordinary intra-national check settlements. Commercial bank customers accept checks drawn on many banks during their business day and deposit them at their local bank. The local bank sends these checks to a branch of its central bank for credit to its central bank account, called a “reserve account” in the US. All other banks do the same. Some banks deposit more money drawn on other banks than other banks deposit drawn on them. And the roles change every day; i.e., a bank deposits more some days than is presented against it and vice versa the next. So the net settlement is seldom very large, one way or the other. The same mechanism pertains to international settlement with gold backed money units.

A key point to note is that the financing of trade is not settled by the new currency itself, but in commercial bank credit denominated in it. Whether an individual trade transaction is financed and on what terms is always a commercial banking decision and should not be a matter for government policies. Each nation need deposit only enough gold at the New Central Bank to give its regulated commercial banks the credibility to issue bank credit based upon the new currency. If a nation runs consistent settlement deficits, its credibility for trade financing purposes may start to dwindle and the cost of obtaining credit in the new currency will rise. This is a market signal to reform ones internal economy in order to participate in the wider world economy, for imports are funded by exports. The member running consistent deficits can always send more gold to one of the member-approved vaults in order to continue to import.

It is the market rating of a commercial bank’s creditworthiness which sets its ability to discharge its obligations to depositors in the new currency, not access to the new currency itself. That remains available to participating central banks only, available to swap with other member central banks if needed in a crisis. A commercial bank that extends too much credit too quickly in the new currency unit and loses the market’s confidence is a problem only for the bank and its customers. The currency is unaffected. The market is the disciplinarian.

Export prices will be established in the export market, denominated in gold money prices. For example, a barrel of Saudi oil may be priced in gold money of two to three units, which is completely independent of the dollar, yuan, rupee, etc. price in internal markets. What matters most is that the importing country has sufficient credibility among its peers to settle its daily trade account in the trade currency.

The New Central Bank will adopt a forty percent ratio of gold to gold money, a ratio that was adopted by Sir Isaac Newton when he was master of the (British) Royal Mint which has stood the test of time. This will enhance the value of gold reserves otherwise maintained by a central bank by two and a half times.

(Please see the appendix at the end of this article in which Mr. Macleod explains the relationship between the New Central Bank, the participating national central banks, and the members’ commercial banks themselves.)

Keep Trade from Being Used as a Geopolitical Tool

Many in the West may not think about the falling purchasing power of the dollar and its effect on international trade settlement as a big problem in their everyday lives. Also, they may agree with the Russian sanctions, high handed and possibly illegal though they may be, as giving Russian despots their just desserts. But I think that Macleod sees a much bigger problem with such short term thinking. Let me offer this scenario. Would you rather live in a world in which a criminal gang controls money production and can print as much as it desires for itself and its friends, not taking into account the damage done to the larger society in which you live, or would you rather live in a world in which no one can produce money ex nihilo for his own benefit? Would you rather live in a world in which a criminal gang can freeze your bank accounts, denying you the ability to buy food, fuel, shelter, etc. or would you rather live in a world where the rule of law protects your civil liberties and your property? I think I know the answer that most freedom loving people will give. Therefore, it should not be a surprise that many nations of the world agree with you on these issues as applied to world commerce. The steady depreciation of the dollar and the high-handed sanctions are turning into the Achilles Heel of the Western controlled international trade system. The rest of the world has decided that it has had enough and is taking matters into its own hands, difficult though that process may be.

The new system, owned by all the members and controlled by no one member, should not veer from its specified purpose of settling international trade accounts. Nor can the medium of exchange (gold) be debased. It is an honest, strictly limited in scope trade settlement system only. Geopolitical issues will be settled in more appropriate forums where each side can present its grievances.

One can hope that continuing trade with a country with which one has a temporary geopolitical issue may actually result in a quicker and more harmonious resolution. In any event, we must remember that people trade with other people and that nations do not trade with other nations. Using the trade of ordinary people as geopolitical tools should be reduced somewhat, forcing diplomats and statesmen to do their duty and find diplomatic and statesmen-like solutions. Well, one can only hope.

Appendix by Alasdair Macleod:

In this detailed explanation, the New Central Bank is the NCB and a participating central bank is the PCB.

Commercial banks can access credits representing the new currency in the form of deposits, conventionally labeled reserves, through their account at a PCB. This can be funded simply by depositing the PCB’s national currency, or any other currency which can be sold on the foreign exchanges, in exchange for a credit representing the new currency in favour of the commercial bank.

The only accounts maintained at the NCB are with participating national central banks. In return for a gold deposit, the NCB credits the participating central bank with the new currency 2.5:1 — in other words a 40% reserve. This is an obligation of the NCB in favour of the PCB, and in effect creates the currency in accordance with a strict formula.

The PCB records the new currency on its balance sheet as an asset. In other words, it is an obligation of the NCB in favour of the PCB.

The book entries are as follows: the PCB records its credit obligation in its favour from the NCB in the new currency as an asset. If a commercial bank wants credit access to the new currency, it sells domestic or other acceptable currency to the PCB in return for a deposit, which is a credit obligation between the PCB and the commercial bank. And if the PCB wishes to operate a minimum reserve policy in the new currency, it is free to do so. That is a matter between it and its own commercial bank network, and does not involve the NCB.

Alternatively, if through circumstances the PCB agrees to make a loan to a commercial bank in the new currency, it will be free to do so by the normal process of credit creation, whereby the loan denominated in the new currency is created in favour of the commercial bank (recorded as an asset on the PCB’s balance sheet), with a matching liability recorded as a deposit (on the liability side of the PCB’s balance sheet) upon which the commercial bank can draw. This is how a discount window currently operates, and similarly will be seen as last resort funding by commercial banks. Furthermore, it allows the PCB to participate in the commercial banking clearing system.

Banks based in jurisdictions which are excluded from participation at NCB level, or choosing not to join can still participate by setting up branches or subsidiaries in participating jurisdictions, if the relevant PCB is prepared to authorise an account.

Note that in this structure, no extra currency is created by the NCB. In fact, only the NCB can create new currency. In effect, the new currency is ring fenced, and only expanded if a PCB deposits more gold with the NCB. Therefore, all credit based on it becomes firmly tied to the new currency, the only variation in value being in the discount rates (interest) which reflect individual counterparty risks and time preference, if appropriate.

The expansion of credit based on the new currency is not an inflationary concern, because the new currency is used to facilitate production from commodity acquisition to final product, and not for financing consumption. Furthermore, the mechanical tie to gold bullion is the ultimate guarantee of the currency’s value and that of all credit based upon it.

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The Rearrangement of the Global Economic Order
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By Ronnie Stoeferle

April 17, 2025
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It was a tremor that shook the financial markets in the trading days following Liberation Day, when tariffs were imposed on almost every country in the world. One of the big winners was gold. After a brief setback below USD 3,000, the USD 3,200 mark was broken on April 11, the USD 3,300 mark on April 16, marking new all-time highs. However, the significant depreciation of the US dollar – the US dollar index fell by around 4% within a few days, by more than 4% against the euro and by around 8% against the Swiss franc – meant that the gold price in euro rose only slightly and fell by more than 4% in Swiss francs. By way of comparison, the S&P 500 dropped by more than 7%.

One reason for gold’s strength is its portfolio property as a hedge against (economic) political uncertainties of any kind, whether due to armed conflicts, political crises or trade conflicts. The positive correlation between the gold price in US dollars and the World Uncertainty Index is evident.
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Another reason is the express wish of Donald Trump and his administration to significantly weaken the US dollar. The prevailing view in the US administration is that a strong US dollar is detrimental to the US economy. However, the former Deutschmark bloc around Germany and Switzerland, the latter still today, show that this argument does not stand up to reality. Regardless of this, the US dollar should be significantly devalued and, in conjunction with the tariffs, force the reindustrialization of the US – in line with the America First policy.

In addition, a possible Mar-a-Lago Accord is making the rounds, in reference to the two major currency agreements in the 1980s, the Plaza Accord (1985) and the Louvre Accord (1987). Both agreements led to a devaluation of the US dollar. The US current account improved at the time, but remained clearly in the red. A significant reduction was only achieved after the Louvre Accord, and in 1991, a slight surplus was even achieved on one occasion. After that, the US current account balance turned clearly negative again. The aim of the Louvre Accord was, however, to stop the depreciation of the US dollar and keep the exchange rates of the leading industrialized nations within a target corridor. The exact structure of the target corridors was agreed upon in an additional protocol that was never published.

The “improvement” in the current account balance desired by the Trump administration, i.e. the reduction of the current account deficit, would inevitably lead to lower capital flows into the US. Demand for US financial securities, both equities and bonds, would fall, and prices would fall with it.

The US discovers its gold treasure
In the course of discussions about the domestic and foreign policy, economic and trade policy reorganization desired by Trump and his administration, the idea has been floated that the US could raise its considerable gold reserves. Currently, the gold reserves held by the US Treasury are shown on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet as a gold certificate at a value of just USD 42.22 per ounce. This was the value of an ounce of gold in 1973 after the last official devaluation of the US dollar against gold. With a revaluation to the current gold price of around USD 3,000, the US could raise around USD 800 billion in a one-off transaction, as Switzerland did in 2000, when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) realized a revaluation gain of CHF 28bn as part of a revaluation of its gold holdings, which was distributed to the cantons and used for tax cuts, some of which were substantial. However, Finance Minister Scott Bessent has already taken the wind out of the sails of these rumors.

Notwithstanding the rejection, the role of gold as a reputable and valuable asset is becoming increasingly important. Gold is gradually moving away from its previous underdog role, especially because long-serving safe anchors such as government bonds, in particular, US Treasuries and German Bunds, in particular, are coming under increasing pressure, largely through their own fault.

Judy Shelton’s proposal of gold-backed government bonds
Another possible use for the US gold treasure comes from Judy Shelton. Many years ago, Judy Shelton, who is seen as a possible successor to Jerome Powell, whose term ends in 2026, presented her plan for a gold-backed government bond. The plan is simple and includes two main components: gold convertibility and the revaluation of the US’s current gold reserves mentioned above. Selected US Treasury emissions with a 50-year term, for example, would include an option for the bondholder to redeem the bond for a predetermined amount of gold per USD 1,000 face value in gold.

Regardless of whether this plan is implemented or not. It is further proof that gold is seen as a serious asset for solving serious economic problems.

Germany says goodbye to fiscal virtue
With his abdication as the self-proclaimed “King of debt”, Donald Trump first surprised us with his words and then, with the appointment of DOGE under Elon Musk, with his actions. In view of the current deficit figures, it seems difficult to imagine whether the goal of reducing Washington’s deficit to 3% by 2028, as set out in the “3-3-3 plan” by the current US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, is realistic. In the first half of the new fiscal year (10/2024-03/2025), the US budget was once again in deep red territory. The deficit amounted to USD 1.3 trillion and was therefore more than 20% higher than in the previous year, particularly because spending increased by almost 10%.

Apart from the two COVID-19 years, 2020 and 2021, the US could have a budget deficit of more than USD 2 trillion for the first time. USD for the first time. With a projected deficit of USD 1.9 trillion or 6.2% of GDP for the fiscal year ending in September, the CBO’s current forecast is only slightly below this negative threshold.

By way of comparison, it has been in the red by a considerable 3.8% on average over the last 50 years. The alarming financial situation of the US federal budget is illustrated by the fact that in February, at USD 306bn, the deficit was higher than Washington’s revenues of USD 296bn. In other words, 51% of all spending in February was debt-financed.

Germany abandons fiscal virtue
Equally surprising, albeit in the opposite direction, was the U-turn by Friedrich Merz, winner of the Bundestag elections and now Germany’s next Chancellor designate. With a double whammy, Germany departed from the path of fiscal virtue. A new special fund, which would be better described as special debt, amounting to EUR 500bn, of which EUR 100bn is earmarked for mandatory climate protection measures, and the easing of the debt brake for higher defense levies, has increased Germany’s national debt by around a third in one fell swoop.

The consequences of this historic breach of a campaign promise? The yields on German government bonds shot up. At its peak, the yield on the 10-year German government bond rose by more than 40 basis points, or 0.40 percentage points, to as much as 2.93%. At its peak, this was an increase of almost 20 percent. This was the strongest rise in German government bonds in more than 30 years. As a benchmark bond, it also pushed up the yields of other countries, most of which are significantly more indebted. For France and Italy, the German turnaround will further exacerbate the already tense debt situation.
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The obvious question is whether Merz is not jeopardizing the status of the German government bond as a safe anchor of the fiat financial system with this U-turn. In any case, gold offers an alternative that has been tried and tested for centuries to close the resulting gap.

Conclusion
With Donald Trump’s inauguration, uncertainty in international politics, geopolitical dynamics and the financial markets has increased significantly. It remains to be seen how long this phase will last, especially with the new factor of the US’s erratic tariff policy. What is certain is that gold is benefiting from the increased uncertainty. It is also certain that gold’s role as a neutral asset without counterparty risk has been strengthened. What is new is that gold is also increasingly being rediscovered as an economic policy instrument. Gold should also become even more attractive for investors due to the volatility and weakness of the equity and bond markets.


About Ronnie Stoeferle
RONNIE IS THE MANAGING PARTNER OF INCREMENTUM AG IN LIECHTENSTEIN. HE STUDIED BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION AND FINANCE IN THE USA AND AUSTRIA. Upon graduation, he joined Erste Group, where in 2007 he published his first In Gold We Trust report. Over the years, this report has become the industry’s benchmark publication on gold, currencies, and inflation. Since 2013, Ronnie has held the position a... More...
Ronnie Stoeferle
VON GREYERZ AG
Zurich, Switzerland
Phone: +41 44 213 62 45

VON GREYERZ AG global client base strategically stores an important part of their wealth in Switzerland in physical gold and silver outside the banking system. VON GREYERZ is pleased to deliver a unique and exceptional service to our highly esteemed wealth preservation clientele in over 90 countries.
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Please contact me via email to [email protected] or by telephone to 1 819 275 7780

Gold is heading towards $4,000 US dollars and Silver towards $60 US dollars during 2025.


Bruce Warren Margolese

THE BIG SHORT AND THE BIGGER LONG
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By Egon von Greyerz
Founder and Chairman
April 22, 2025

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For at least 35 years, the monetary system has been telling us that the current era is coming to an end.

That means a debt collapse, a currency collapse and a collapse of most bubble assets like stocks and property. THUS THE BIG SHORT!

As I am writing this on Easter Monday, the Dow is down 1,100 points (2.9%) and the Nasdaq is down 3.3%.

Anyone who buys the dips will be slaughtered. As I have said for a very long time, before this is over, stocks will be down 90-99% in real terms, which is gold.
More importantly, this total collapse has very little to do with TRUMP. More later.

And don’t for a moment believe that gold is overvalued. As many have used conventional technical tools to predict a gold correction, I have been saying for a long time that gold is in an acceleration phase and will reach multiples of the current price. (Yes, of course, there will be corrections on the way up, but most probably not yet.) THUS THE BIG LONG!

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END OF A MONETARY ERA
The end of a monetary era is always the same, with bubble assets going up in smoke.
The majority of investors haven’t got a clue what is happening. They are hanging on to their stocks, hoping that Trump will save them by firing Powell and telling the next Chairman of the Fed to lower interest rates.

But the time of manipulating rates is over. The market will now determine rates, which it should always do. And with uncontrollable debt escalation in the US and many other countries, the cost of debt can only go one way – UP!

Remember, there is only one buyer of US debt, which is the Fed. But the Fed can only buy debt if the US government issues more debt.
And therein lies the crux. More debt must be created in a futile attempt to save the ever-growing and out-of-control finances of the US.

This is without doubt the biggest Ponzi scheme in history. Madoff would certainly have enjoyed it.
And still, it would have been so easy, as all of this has been totally predictable.
To paraphrase Churchill, the more you study history, the more self-evident the future becomes.

Still no government, no central banker, no journalist and virtually no market student spends any time on learning from the past.
Why, why, why, you ask yourself. Well, it is clearly sheer arrogance in believing that we know better today and that we have better tools. And of course, “The times are different today”. Hmmm!

But they are not and have never been.
Every monetary system has collapsed in history, and every currency has gone to ZERO, without fail.

As I witnessed Greenspan’s expansionary policy after the property market collapse in the 1990s and how debt and derivatives quickly continued to grow, I was certain that we were seeing the end of a major monetary system.

I had, since the late 1980s, been convinced that gold was the best insurance against yet another coming failure of the monetary system.
As major central banks like the UK and Switzerland were selling their gold in the mid to late 1990s, it was clear that we were near the bottom. So we waited until the 1999 gold bottom at $250 and confirmation of the gold price recovery in the early 2000s before buying physical gold.

HISTORY OF VON GREYERZ
I founded Matterhorn Asset Management (brand name GoldSwitzerland) in 2000.
We changed the name to VON GREYERZ in January 2024 to indicate our long-term commitment to a generational family business built on wealth preservation principles.

Finally, in early 2002, we decided to commit the major part of our liquid assets, and that of the investors we advised, to physical gold, stored outside the banking system. So we then bought important amounts of gold at $300 per ounce.
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We haven’t looked back since. Although we never intended to open up the business for outside clients, demand from close contacts led to our business expanding.
Today, we are a global business with clients in 90 countries, and vaults in Singapore and Zurich with a $/CHF 400,000 starting level and also the biggest and safest private vault in the world in the Swiss Alps, starting at $/CHF 5 million.

BACK TO TRUMP – the culprit
But everything is, of course, Trump’s fault!
All the misery hitting the world now is due to Trump’s capricious actions.

Here are just a few examples of how TRUMP is now wrecking not just the US but the whole world economy, according to the general public as well as the media and politicians in most countries:

Stocks crashing, bonds crashing, rates up, dollar crashing, trade wars with massive daily tit for tat yo-yo swinging tariffs between 10% and 145%, much higher Inflation, collapse of global trade etc, etc.

Yes, all of the above is happening and much more and it is all Trump’s fault.
But is it really? No, Trump is not the culprit.

Instead, Trump happens to be the catalyst.

An absolutely superb analysis of the US-China trade war was given by this very acute Chinese influencer:
@speedboyonlinestore

Absolutely Right
♬ original sound – SpeedboyOnlineStoreWatch on TikTok
Leaders are instruments of their time, and they appear at the time in the cycle to carry out what was going to happen anyway.
Just like Thatcher and Reagan were the right leaders to lead the upturn in the early 1980s, Trump is perfect for creating the havoc and chaos that comes with the end of a major monetary era.

What is happening in the US and global economy today, and the total collapse which is about to happen, is not “Trump’s fault”.
He just happened to be the right person to execute the inevitable downfall of a major monetary era.

But even if it is not his fault, history will unfairly blame him as the villain who brought the world economy down, and thus see him as probably the worst president in history.
So not the best of timing for Mr Trump.

GOLD IS NATURE’S MONEY
Gold is the only money that has survived in history because it is the only money which is made by nature.
Gold has history on its side – 5,000 years, as the only surviving currency, is enough proof. Let’s see where Bitcoin is in 5,000 years…

Investors have nowhere to run.

Government bonds were seen as good as gold. That’s why they were called Gilts in the UK.
But today, they are not worth the piece of paper they are written on these days.
Governments won’t even be able to pay the interest on them. And the capital is already lost.

And the currency these bonds are issued in is also on its way to ZERO.

It is incomprehensible and irresponsible to hold government bonds today!

Investors are guaranteed to lose 100%.
And stocks are likely to lose at least 90% in real terms, gold. The same with property, private equity and all other leveraged assets.

GOLD IS THE ULTIMATE WEALTH PRESERVATION ASSET
That is one of the reasons gold is going up. There is nowhere else to turn to for anyone looking for wealth preservation.
But gold can, of course, not absorb all the capital which is looking for safety.

The coming gold demand can only be satisfied at much, much higher gold prices.
Gold is now also a Tier 1 asset. This means that physical gold is, according to the Bank for International Settlements rules, as safe as cash and government bonds.

This is, of course, laughable. As I just explained, cash and government bonds will be worthless. Thus, it is an insult to gold to put it in the same category as cash and bonds.

As we enter the biggest global wealth destruction in history, we will simultaneously witness a long-term revaluation of gold. Gold is the only monetary asset which has survived in history and will, in the coming years, be the only asset which will preserve investors’ wealth.

Thus, it is important to understand that this is not just another gold rally. Instead, gold will resume the role that it has historically had, as nature’s money and the only REAL MONEY that has ever existed.

The current rerating of gold to what it was always meant to be is both historical and fundamental. Gold will be permanently re-rated and revalued, both as a transactional asset and as a wealth preservation asset that every investor must hold.

But gold won’t be just 0.5% of global financial assets as it is today. More likely gold will be 10% or more.
I have been standing on a soapbox for over 25 years, warning about the risks to the financial system and the critical importance of gold for wealth preservation purposes.

Few have listened. But now, as gold has gone up 11- 12x depending on the currency it is measured in, everyone is talking about gold.
There will be gold sellers popping up everywhere, and many without the integrity that investors must demand.

1. Only deal with companies that have the highest reputation and have been reputably involved with gold for at least 15-20 years. The long-term superior reputation of the owners and management is critical.
2. Hold gold in the safest jurisdictions, such as Switzerland and Singapore.
3. Don’t hold your gold in the US, which is more likely to take irrational actions.
4. Don’t hold your gold in banks.
5. Also, only hold physical gold, which you can access directly in the vault.

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Many will wonder about silver. Yes, silver is likely to go up faster than gold. But it is much more volatile and thus riskier. We recommend 25% silver maximum and 75% gold.

And remember that times are likely to become very difficult. Help your family and friends to whatever extent you can.
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About Egon von Greyerz
Born with dual Swiss/Swedish citizenship, Egon's education was mainly in Sweden. Egon von Greyerz began his professional life in Geneva as a banker and thereafter spent 17 years as the Finance Director and Executive Vice-Chairman of Dixons Group Plc. During that time, Dixons expanded from a small photographic retailer to a FTSE 100 company and the largest consumer electronics retailer in the U... More...

Egon von Greyerz
Founder and Chairman
VON GREYERZ AG
Zurich, Switzerland
Phone: +41 44 213 62 45

VON GREYERZ AG global client base strategically stores an important part of their wealth in Switzerland in physical gold and silver outside the banking system. VON GREYERZ is pleased to deliver a unique and exceptional service to our highly esteemed wealth preservation clientele in over 90 countries.
VONGREYERZ.gold

Contact Us

Articles may be republished if full credits are given with a link to VONGREYERZ.GOLD

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PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW

Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.

Without your WORK, you are wasting your time and probably your money.

There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge.

SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.

20% of the SUCCESS is yourself, the Forex Trader.

20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE, which we teach you in Money Flow Trading.

20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard-earned money). Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear, and greed. Of course, we want to make sure that you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader, so our course is for three months. so we can teach you the right trading methods We can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.

20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators, which include not only the common ones. It consists of understanding supply and demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points, which you can see daily on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans which we also help you develop and explain WHY. We review These Winning Trade Plans every three months or more frequently if market circumstances require that.

20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than Data released daily worldwide. It includes reports and articles that are extremely well researched as you can see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets, especially in North America, is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and are not surprised when events eventually unfold.

When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't Forex trading, they stare at screens and force trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.

Quoting perfectionis
What are the key principles of risk management in forex trading, especially considering the influence of central banks and market sentiment? How do you determine risk-on or risk-off conditions, and how does it affect currency flows? Considering both fundamental factors and technical indicators, what impact could the British election have on forex markets? That election took place on Thursday, July 4, 2024.

The answers to your excellent questions will happen by registering to post on Forex Factory so you can post your questions or comments on my thread.

PERCEPTION is not REALITY. Most commercial and retail Forex traders have no idea what QE (Quantative Easing) and QT (Quantative Tightening) do to CAUSE INFLATION.

If you want to call me and discuss it further I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. Please sign up for my service by sending a Bank E Transfer of Canadian funds to Tobyruth11@yahoo.com

The fee is 100.00 dollars in Canadian funds from your bank account by E-Transfer.

We believe in a hands-on approach at a more than reasonable cost for a comprehensive service.

We can all see by looking at the link below, the 5 Minute Chart of Dow 30, the patterns keep repeating and you all have a chance if you want to learn to become very wealthy over the next year by signing up. You have zero risk as the information that you will have access to is invaluable.

Here is the link.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

LOOK AT THE PATTERN OF TODAY and every Forex trading day from Sunday at 2:00 AM Eastern Standard Time in Europe to 10:00 AM Eastern Standard Time when North American Equity Markets start trading at 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time on Monday.

This X-RAY and PATTERN repeats between Sunday and Friday at 5:00 PM Eastern Standard Time when All Forex Trading stops until 3:00 PM Eastern Standard Time when New Zealand opens for trading followed by Asia at 8:00 PM, Europe at 2:00 AM and North America at 9:30 AM.

ABSOLUTE FORTUNES ARE POSSIBLE ONCE YOU UNDERSTAND !!! And you show that you have the DISCIPLINE by your results to CONTROL your FEAR, GREED and EGO !!! The markets are always right until they are not.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

If you want to call me and discuss it further, I offer direct contact by calling me at 1 819 275 7780. I will spend a minimum of 30 minutes with you on the telephone to answer any of your questions at NO COST TO YOU. Please sign up for my service by sending a Bank E Transfer of Canadian funds to Tobyr[email protected]

5-Minute Chart of Dow 30 - Our X-Ray Photo - Please CLICK on the LINK below.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

NOTE: PLEASE REGISTER TO POST ON THIS THREAD. WE CAN THEN HELP YOU BECOME SKILLED WITH 24/7 Guidance. It costs nothing to register and takes less than 5 minutes.

CLICK ON THE LINK ABOVE AND LOOK AT THE REPEATING X-RAY Each Forex Trading Day.

You Need To Act So I Can Help You DISCOVER if you have the SKILLS to become a winning Forex trader using LEVERAGE of 100 to 1.

Our Forex Trade Plan from January 1, 2025, until March 31, 2025, is SHORT 50 UNITS of DOW 30, SHORT 50 UNITS of SP500, Go LONG 100 ounces of Gold and 5000 Ounces of Silver. I usually choose one of the MAJOR Currency Pairs to SHORT or GO LONG ON.

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CLICK ON THIS LINK - IT IS THE 5-Minute Chart Of Dow 30. See how the KNOWN PATTERNS REPEAT -
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

THE WRONG PERCEPTION WORLDWIDE CONTINUES IN THE STOCK MARKETS.

WHY? Most Traders and EXPERTS do not understand ECONOMICS. READ THE JANUARY 2025 JOHN HUSSMAN NEWSLETTER.
HE CALLED IT PERFECTLY. RATE CUTS CANNOT STOP A RECESSION AND OTHER SERIOUS PROBLEMS IN THE MANIPULATED STOCK MARKETS.

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=i5&t=YM

LOOK AT THE PATTERN OF the last 24 hours as it repeats every day, which is why my results are spectacular and PROFITABLE.

CLICK ON THE LINK ABOVE AND SIGN UP OR CALL ME FOR A ONE-ON-ONE 30-minute discussion. Thanks - BWM

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You can also reach me by emailing [email protected] for further information on how I can help you make money and educate you on matters of most importance in our ever-changing world.

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https://realinvestmentadvice.com/res...e-yield-curve/

Daily Market Commentary
The Kink In The Yield Curve

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-...atar-46x46.png By RIA Team | Apr 22, 2025
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Economic and inflation forecasts have a highly significant impact on treasury bond yields. Therefore, one would suspect that their yields would follow a linear trend as the maturity lengthens on Treasury securities. For example, if current expectations were for high growth and higher than normal inflation but long-term expectations were contrary, one would expect a downward sloping yield curve, i.e., higher yields for shorter maturities and lower yields for longer maturities. One would not expect the economic and inflation forecast for 8 years to differ from the average of 7 and 9-year forecasts.

While economic forecasts impact the shape of the yield curve, there is another key factor. That is liquidity. In other words, instead of yields following a linear or logarithmic trend based on economic and inflation expectations, kinks in the yield curve appear for “off-the-run bonds.” These bonds are not recently issued and do not have standard maturities, like two, three, five, ten, and thirty years. Because of liquidity, these bonds will often trade at higher yields than surrounding “on the run bonds.” While off-the-run bond liquidity is outstanding for small investors and most investment advisors, large mutual funds and banks need excess liquidity. Thus, they require a premium yield for less liquid off-the-run bonds.

The graph below highlights the kink in 20-year yields. As it shows, the 20-year bond trades about 20- 25 bps above the interpolated yield between 10-year and 30-year bonds. For those, like ourselves, who do not need excess liquidity, the kink is an opportunity to pick up additional yield. Moreover, for those looking at a long hold timeframe, the off-the-run bonds age to become on-the-run bonds, thus allowing investors to monetize the kink.


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What To Watch Today
Earnings
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Economy
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Market Trading Update
Yesterday, we discussed the market’s recent rebound from the lows. Notably, while the markets are still struggling, as expected given the overall pressure on the equity markets from concerns over tariffs, the valuation reversion so far has been entirely a function of the price decline.
Over the weekend, I downloaded the latest earnings estimates for the S&P 500 from S&P Global (the purveyors of the benchmark index), and the findings were quite surprising. As of April 15th, S&P revised its 2026 year-end targets higher to $292/share from $283/share in March. This upward revision comes after the recent tariff announcements, market declines, and falling economic outlooks.
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While I don’t necessarily see the logic behind their optimism, it nonetheless applies significant downward pressure on valuations, as the decline in the “P” is being assisted by the rise in the “E.” Currently, trailing GAAP valuations have declined to 22x earnings, which is the median market valuation since 2007. If the market declines further without earnings estimates falling, valuations will become more compelling from an investment perspective.
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However, given the impact of tariffs as a tax on the consumer, significantly reduced savings rates, and slowing economic data, we find it challenging to be as optimistic about earnings. All those factors will ultimately impact demand, which is where corporate revenues are derived from. Given the massive deviation of earnings estimates from their long-term exponential growth trend, it is hard not to think that a reversion to the mean is eventually coming.
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As we enter the heart of earnings season this week and next, some resolution to the exuberance of earnings estimates should be expected. The good news, however, is that after next week, stock buybacks will return to the market, which will provide some near-term relief from the recent selling pressure.

Stay tuned.
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The Shifting Of The Absolute And Relative SV Curves
The SimpleVisor absolute and relative analysis shows that the market sectors and factors are returning to fair value after being very oversold. For instance, last week’s analysis showed that the transportation and technology sectors were very oversold with relative scores of -65 and -53, respectively. Its absolute scores were similarly oversold at -60 and -74. As shown below, they remain oversold but at more moderate relative scores of -30 (technology) and -28 (transportation). Their respective absolute scores are also heading back toward fair value. Such moderation is healthy and natural.

The second graphic compares the factor scores from yesterday to two weeks ago. Two weeks ago, the factors were scattered across the relative score (Y-axis) and pinned to the left side of the absolute score (X-axis). In other words, almost everything was oversold, but some factors were over- or underperforming the S&P 500. Since then, the absolute scores have shifted to the right, and more factors are overbought compared to the S&P 500.
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The Death Cross And Market Bottoms
In financial markets, few technical patterns generate as much attention and anxiety as the death cross. This ominous-sounding term refers to a crossover on a price chart when a short-term moving average, most commonly the 50-day moving average (50-DMA), drops below a long-term moving average, usually the 200-day moving average (200-DMA). The “death cross” is a fantastic headline for the media to generate clicks and views. However, for investors, the “death cross” signals a market correction and suggests a more cautious investing approach. But there are a few questions we must answer.

1. What does the death cross mean?
2. How reliable is it as an indicator?
3. And how should investors respond when they see it?

Let’s answer those questions by exploring the death cross’s history, data, and interpretations, and explaining why context matters more than the signal itself.
READ MORE…
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https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ke...al-world-order

Ker-Powell! To The Liberal World Order


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by Tyler Durden

Tuesday, April 22, 2025 - 09:40 AM
Authored by Michael Every via Rabobank,

President Trump just landed another comic-book punch on Fed Chair Powell:
""Pre-emptive Cuts” in Interest Rates are being called for by many…. there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW. Europe has already “lowered” seven times. Powell has always been “Too late”, except when it came to the Election period when he lowered in order to help Sleepy Joe Biden, later Kamala, get elected. How did that work out?”

To be honest, Trump is saying many of the same things that many of those covering the Fed in markets are too - just far less politely; and very inappropriately in the eyes of those same commentators… because they are allowed to criticize an independent central bank and take market positions to bend it to their will, but politicians are obviously not.

That’s part of the Liberal World Order (LWO).


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And how did that work out?
Pope Francis died on Easter Monday, his last speech after having met US Vice President Vance having stated: “How much contempt is stirred up at times towards the vulnerable, the marginalised, and migrants. I appeal to all those in positions of political responsibility in our world not to yield to the logic of fear which only leads to isolation from others, but rather to use the resources available to help the needy, to fight hunger and to encourage initiatives that promote development.” President Trump will attend the funeral in Rome, expected by April 27, then the world has another key election to focus on.

That’s as Canada’s and Australia’s white smoke looms as both sweat about the end of the LWO. In Oz, ridiculously, it’s still all about housing. Just as silly, Politico asks ‘Could Canada join the EU? Unlikely … but not impossible’ --as if ‘European’ in European Union doesn’t mean anything, and the US would just watch that happen without acting vs. it-- and as Canadian PM Carney says he wants to increase federal spending by 1% of GDP for the next four years to ‘Trump-proof’ the economy if he wins. As if that is possible either.

The chief of the World Economic Forum also just stood down with immediate effect – but there won’t be any election for his successor, just a search committee. That’s orderly, and perhaps worldly, but doesn’t seem very liberal.

Trump has posted about the justice system again, claiming there wasn’t any court action to stop population flows in one direction, but there is lots to stop it going the other way. We wait to see what the Supreme Court has to say about the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, but informed speculation is a ruling may say the government can deport people if it gives seven days’ notice.

Last week, the US Trade Representative released his final port fees for Chinese-built ships journeying to the US. We will publish a report on that later today but suffice to say while many players can avoid the worst of its impact, China can’t. On US-China trade war, it’s full steam ahead.

China is openly threatening repercussions for any country that strikes a trade deal with the US with negative implications for it, which any trade deal the US signs now must logically have. In short, it’s choose or be chosen time, as I’ve warned. So, what are *you* going to do? “Rate cuts?”
Underlining the sense of desperation evident in some intellectual circles, The Atlantic claims Hitler’s Terrible Tariffs “by seeking to “liberate” Germans from a globalized world order,…sent the national economy careening backwards”. The messaging is clear.

Yet that claim has no basis in historical fact: Hitler used lots of economic statecraft tools pre-WW2, but tariffs were not his primary vector.
Foreign Affairs, however, argues ‘The Global Trading System Was Already Broken… But There’s a Better Way to Fix It Than a Reckless Tariff Regime.’
Its suggestion is the US finds large like-minded economies who agree to run balanced trade together and builds a new system from there, rather than everyone shouting, “Because markets!” while ignoring their own and others’ mercantilism in a system that IS broken.
Which some think *is* the US plan if you join the dots.

On which note, US Vice-President Vance was just invited to Indian PM Modi’s home; India placed a 12% tariff on Chinese steel; and the talk is of a “roadmap” to elevate US-India relations, making a mockery of the BRICS as an anti-US wall, and perhaps moving us closer to the foundation stone of a new global architecture. Indeed, it seems a race between India, Japan, and possibly Vietnam to strike the first deal with the US… and then face the wrath of China.

Conversely, French President Macron reportedly claims Europe is ready for the burden of the global reserve currency…. which in the current broken system means a much higher euro, a much larger trade deficit, much less industry and rearmament, and much more inequality. Unless Europe thinks it can have a global reserve currency while running balanced trade or trade surpluses… which sounds like the US plan everyone is now decrying, “because markets!”

I continue to argue Europe is in NO way ready, or willing, to take on that burden, and any market ‘favouritism’ towards the Euro is a gift it won’t want to accept once it sees the euro pro quo. Meanwhile, if Europe is the global future, why is the ECB and EU Commission so worried about the issuance and use of US dollar-backed stablecoins there? Capital flight?

Gold just hit another record nominal high at $3,445 before dipping slightly. While most are getting an eerie feeling about that, and some note US Treasury yields are rising as the US dollar is falling, muttering about Trump and “the end of US exceptionalism”, very few truly grasp that the global system, not just global trade, is collapsing – or being collapsed. That extends way beyond what we are seeing so far: and how well do you think smaller economies and powers will fare as it does vs. the US? Badly. In short, shorting the dollar comes up short when one thinks about it that way.

Will the Spring IMF, World Bank, and G20 finance ministers’ meetings this week see a Mar-a-Lago Accord or just plain discord as everyone --including central banks-- realises they won’t be singing from the same hymn sheet, or with the same singers, much longer? Recall the collapse of central bank coordination, centred on gold, was a pivotal factor in the end of two previous Liberal World Orders in the early- then mid-20th century. As was geopolitics…
…as Russian President Putin signed a 20-year Strategic Partnership Agreement with Iran: after no Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal, that looks like no ‘Noxin’ (reverse Nixon) win for Trump on that front either.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon looks in chaos, with the White House saying it’s trying to reject Secretary of Defence Hegseth, who still has Trump’s backing. Don’t think this isn’t related to Iran, and who wants jaw-jaw vs war-war --and not necessarily the way you might think-- as Israel rehearses for a strike on Iran and Hezbollah, the latter still refusing to disarm as Lebanon’s government and the UN wishes, and instead attempting to entrench itself deeper.
So, yes, a lot going on: even more than President Trump saying something rude about Powell. More like a US Ker-Powell! to the entire Liberal World Order.

Week ahead
Today has the ECB survey of professional forecasters, to delight… professional forecasters of the ECB, Eurozone consumer confidence, and the ECB’s Lagarde on CNBC. There is also the Philly and Richmond Fed services surveys and the Fed’s Jefferson and Harker speaking.

Wednesday: has global services and manufacturing PMIs, UK public sector borrowing, and the ECB’s wage tracker, then the Fed’s Beige Book and US new home sales and building permits.

Thursday: it’s the German IFO survey, US durable goods, initial claims, and existing home sales.

Friday: sees UK and Canadian retail sales, and US Michigan consumer confidence.

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...deport-destroy

Defy, Deny, Defund, Deport, Destroy

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by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, April 22, 2025 - 04:20 PM

Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,
I must have dreamed a thousand dreams
Been haunted by a million screams
But I can hear the marching feet
They’re moving into the street
Now, did you read the news today?
They say the danger has gone away
But I can see the fire’s still alight
They’re burning into the night
There’s too many men, too many people
Making too many problems
And there’s not much love to go around
Can’t you see this is the land of confusion?

Genesis – Land of Confusion


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I think “Land of Confusion” is an accurate description of the world in 2025, even if the song was written in 1986 during the Reagan presidency. The three-month-old Trump presidency has been a whirlwind of executive orders, high profile deportations, mass firings of stay-at-home government drones who pretend to work, daily revelations from DOGE about massive waste, fraud, and corruption within the Federal government, defunding the democrat slush fund – USAID, release of JFK files showing the CIA was involved, defunding the Ukraine debacle, negotiating with Putin to end the war while the EU attempts to undermine those negotiations to start WW3, and now waging a global tariff war against China and every country who have taken advantage of our penchant for consuming while going into massive debt to do so.

The Wall Street cabal and foreign owners of our trillions in Treasury debt have attempted to derail Trump’s tariff war by throwing a hissy fit like they did after their $700 billion TARP bailout was initially voted down in 2008. They drove the stock market down 17% and drove the 10-Year Treasury up 50 basis points in a matter of days, before Trump yelled uncle, delayed most tariffs for 90 days and has been busy granting exceptions to favored industries who have his ear.


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Despite running on a platform of ending the Ukraine war and the Israel Gaza conflict within weeks of taking office, the Ukraine war is not close to being resolved, and Trump has done nothing but pour gasoline on the Middle East fire. He has increased military aid to Israel so they can continue to bomb the rubble that is Gaza. He is spending billions bombing the Houthis, while risking our carrier groups, when we have no real strategic interest in doing so, other than doing Netanyahu’s bidding.

One day he threatens Iran with obliteration, and the next day he sends a negotiator to talk things over. Threaten and back-off seems to be Trump’s standard operating procedure. Xi knows this is Trump’s method of winning negotiations, so his response has been to match Trump’s threats with his own threats. Waiting for someone to blink.


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Trump continues to de-fund and penalize the largest universities in the U.S. because a few thousand of their students protested on their campuses about Israel’s genocide of Palestinians in Gaza. In my book, free speech means free speech, whether I like it or not. The antisemitism narrative being pushed by the Trump administration and their MSM cheerleaders at Fox seems excessive and overblown. Miriam Adleson’s $100 million campaign contribution seems to be paying off.
When you impartially step back and observe how Trump treats Netanyahu and how the vast majority in congress do whatever Israel instructs them to do, it’s undeniable our government is broadly controlled by another country that does not have our best interests at heart. AIPAC uses bribes and threats to keep our politicians in line. This fact is clearly revealed by how they treat Thomas Massie, the most principled freedom-loving person in congress. He has been declared Israel Enemy #1 by AIPAC and their Israel handlers for not kissing their ring.

Confusion reigns because the world is lost in a blizzard of lies and paralyzed in a boundless morass of uncertainty. The ability of corporations, small business owners, and average Americans to make decisions, based upon a reasonable understanding of the rules of the game and what the near-term future holds, has been obliterated because the rules change on a daily basis. I know Trump’s tariff bonanza is designed as a negotiating tactic to force foreign countries to lower their trade barriers and give American exporters a level playing field. As a negotiating tactic, it is a bold roll of the dice. If it works, as the biggest importer in the world, Americans will benefit from lower prices. China is the wildcard.


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If Trump cannot negotiate a reasonable agreement with China and tariff increases remain in effect, an inflationary global recession will ensue. The debt saturated American economy cannot endure higher interest rates, higher inflation, higher deficits, rising unemployment, and interest on the national debt soaring above $1 trillion. It most certainly cannot fight simultaneous wars in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and the Far East.

We know when politicians, and even dictators, feel intolerable pressure because their economies are imploding and the natives are growing restless, angrier, and hungrier, they always follow the same playbook – distract the masses by giving them an foreign enemy, other than themselves. If these tariff wars do not de-intensify, global wars will begin and intensify until clear winners and losers are determined. That’s how it rolls in a Fourth Turning.


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At the three month point of his presidency, Trump has purposefully created chaos as a tool to try and reverse decades of corruption, treason, and destruction. He has signed 130 executive orders, as the legislative branch of government has become inconsequential and toothless. Presidents now attempt to rule by dictate, bypassing Congress, unless forced to seek their permission. The left calls Trump a dictator, but they didn’t call Biden a dictator when he signed 160 executive orders, or Obama with 277 executive orders, or Clinton with 364 executive orders.

It’s the way the game is played, so every time the other party takes over, they reverse the executive orders of the previous administration. That is no way to run a country, but it is a way to run a banana republic circling the drain. While the bozos in congress are enriched for doing whatever they are instructed to do by whichever billionaires installed them, the judicial branch has now seized the most power of the three branches, under the guise of a legal system which no longer has a basis in the U.S. Constitution or Bill of Rights.


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Treasonous judges (Boasberg) have been positioned by the Deep State and their billionaire puppet masters (Soros, Gates) to wage a lawfare war against anyone who defies the lucrative and corrupt status quo or attempts to reverse illegal actions taken by previous politician puppets (Biden, Obama) using executive orders and disregarding the Constitution. An entire establishment of corrupt district attorneys, judges, law firms, and fake NGOs are tasked with stopping everything Trump and his cabinet attempt to do which would benefit the average American, make the country safer, root out corruption, and enhance the financial condition of a country drowning in debt.


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Judges blocking deportation of illegals, the firing of useless government drones, the defunding of left wing organizations within the government (USAID, NPR, PBS) pretending to be impartial, cutting off federal funds for the largest far left universities where 95% of the faculty vote Democrat, and essentially anything Trump was elected to do by the majority of Americans, must be defied and destroyed if necessary. Arrest the judges and let them rot in the putrid dungeon cells in D.C. without due process, like they inflicted upon grandmothers and other innocent J6 protestors.
“The more corrupt the state, the more numerous the laws.” ― Tacitus, The Annals of Imperial Rome


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The American empire now exceeds the Roman empire when it comes to state corruption. And we all know how that ended. We started as a republic, decayed into a democracy, and we now live in a dystopian, delusional, debt fueled totalitarian oligarchy, being ushered into a techno-gulag while staring at our gadgets, addicted to toxic foodstuff, and oblivious to the propaganda and indoctrination being employed to control us. Pretending we can vote our way out of this is a fool’s game. They control all the levers (financial, political, legal, social, military, media). They have the money. They have the power. They have control.

They will not relinquish their wealth, power and control willingly, or non-violently. That’s a fact. I know there are varied opinions on whether Trump is actually playing a part in herding his followers into the techno-gulag, or whether he truly believes he can usher in a new golden age by defeating the deeply rooted Deep State quislings. I’m living through it, but I am treating it like I’m watching a TV drama, waiting to see how the next episode plays out.


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Anyone with an ounce of critical thinking skills can discern all is not right in this world. The anger, vitriol, hate and violence being exhibited by the globalist loving left, fueled by Soros/Gates funding, is a precursor of the vicious conflicts which will mark the last five or so years of this Fourth Turning. To me, this Fourth Turning has delved into a battle between the globalist, totalitarian minded, new world order faction and a rag tag assemblage of libertarian minded, freedom loving, rational, decent, family oriented, frustrated, and heavily armed anarchists, who are being pushed towards their boiling point.

The pressure builds. The anger is welling up from the depths. Normal people, who just want to be left alone to live their lives, have been taxed into poverty at the point of a gun, raped by the relentless inflation purposely created by the oligarch banking cabal, forced to accept deviancy in public schools as normal, coerced into having a toxic gene therapy injected into their bodies in order to keep their jobs, and convinced by the media and their billionaire oligarch owners to become debt slaves in order to live the American dream.


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The question is what action, event, or person will trigger the violent response, destined to occur in the foreseeable future. Two-hundred-and-fifty years ago this past week the British attempting to confiscate weapons from farmer patriots resulted in the battles of Lexington & Concord, triggering the American Revolution. One hundred and sixty-four years ago this past week Fort Sumter was attacked, triggering the Civil War. Eighty-six years ago, Hitler was preparing to invade Poland, triggering WW2.

The number of potential triggers domestically and internationally are vast. Internationally, Israel attacking Iran, the globalist tyrants in France, UK, and Germany provoking an expansion of the Ukraine war into WW3, or China responding to Trump’s tariff war by invading Taiwan, are all potential triggers for bloody conflict.


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Domestically, there are also a myriad of potential triggers which could unleash a torrent of blood across the land. I know most normies and those ignorant of history believe that level of violence is impossible in this “age of reason and civility”. Assassination, firebombing, and swatting are now perfectly acceptable forms of “protest’ by the demented fiends constituting the left. If Trump was to be assassinated, that would most certainly trigger a violent response by his MAGA army of heavily armed adherents.

Trump’s frustration with the never ending lawfare tactics being used by his enemies and their captured politicized judges, is bound to boil over and lead him in the direction of martial law and the arrest of these judges and their puppet masters.

With the Supreme Court occupied by three moronic women with IQs below room temperature, and two supposed right leaning judges who clearly have been compromised by the Surveillance State, the courts can no longer be expected to make rulings in accordance with the Constitution. Therefore, a real Constitutional crisis is a certainty. When the rule of law has been annihilated and exiled to the annals of history, good men are forced to do bad things in order for future generations to stand a chance.


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When the USD loses 11% of its value versus the DXY, and 39% versus gold over the course of 3 months, and the stock market plunges by 1,000 points on a regular basis, down 17% from its recent high, something is amiss. When gold goes up by 30% in four and a half months ($760 an ounce), it is a huge warning sign the system is coming unglued. Panic is setting in. The foreign countries Trump has been threatening are selling the USD.

Attempting to bully the world when you are the biggest debtor nation in history may not be a well thought out strategy. We are truly in a land of confusion. Is the Wall Street cabal tanking the markets to force Trump to back off on the tariffs? As average working stiffs see their 401ks vaporize for the third time this century, deal with the relentless inflation on the things they need to live (homes, rent, food, insurance, property taxes, medical), and observe no one being arrested for corruption, treason or being on Epstein’s list, their frustration, anger and impatience grows to the point where they are likely to blow.

I picture the opening scene of Falling Down, with Bill Foster, the average working schmuck, sweating, frustrated, and swinging wildly trying to kill a fly while trapped in a traffic jam. He snaps. Everyone has a breaking point. And I believe millions of normal peace-loving people will SOON reach their breaking point, pushed too far by their government, the media, bankers, and the billionaire globalist oligarchs pulling the strings. It will be up to people like you and me to make things right again. There will be no Superman or White Knight coming to save the day. We will see if we are up to the challenge.


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Oh, Superman, where are you now?
When every thing’s gone wrong somehow?
Men of steel, these men of power
I’m losing control by the hour
I won’t be coming home tonight
My generation will put it right
We’re not just making promises
That we know we’ll never keep

Genesis – Land of Confusion
There are no guarantees this Fourth Turning has a happily ever after ending. Empires always fall.

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More geopolitical stories on Zero

The 15-Rules

1. Cut losers short and let winners run. (Be a scale-up buyer.)
2. Set goals and be actionable. (Without specific goals, trades become arbitrary.)
3. Emotionally driven decisions void the investment process. (Buy high/sell low)
4. Follow the trend. (80% of portfolio performance is determined by the long-term, monthly trend. While a “rising tide lifts all boats,” the opposite is also true.)
5. Never let a “trading opportunity” turn into a long-term investment. (Refer to rule #1. All initial purchases are “trades,” until your investment thesis is proved correct.)
6. An investment discipline does not work if it is not followed.
7. “Losing money” is part of the investment process. (If you are not prepared to take losses when they occur, you should not be investing.)
8. The odds of success improve greatly when the fundamental analysis is confirmed by the technical price action. (This applies to both bull and bear markets)
9. Never, under any circumstances, add to a losing position. (“Only losers add to losers.” – Paul Tudor Jones)
10. Markets are either “bullish” or “bearish.” During a “bull market,” be only long or neutral. During a “bear market,” be only neutral or short. (Bull and Bear markets are determined by their long-term trend.)
11. When markets are trading at, or near, extremes do the opposite of the “herd.”
12. Do more of what works and less of what doesn’t. (Traditional rebalancing takes money from winners and adds it to losers. Rebalance by reducing losers and adding to winners.)
13. “Buy” and “Sell” signals are only useful if implemented. (Managing without a “buy/sell” discipline is designed to fail.)
14. Strive to be a .700 “at bat” player. (No strategy works 100% of the time. Be consistent, control errors, and capitalize on opportunities to win.)
15. Manage risk and volatility. (Control the variables that lead to mistakes to generate returns as a byproduct.)

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The Bull Trend Still Lives
Currently, the long-term bullish trend that began in 2009 remains intact. The correction in early 2016 was cut short by massive, and continuing, interventions of global Central Banks. The 2018 correction, reversed with the Fed returning to a more “dovish” posture and cutting rates. The 2020 crash reversed due to the most extreme monetary interventions the world has ever seen.


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What is important to note is that it is taking increasingly larger amounts of interventions to keep the “bull trend” intact. The limits to the efficacy of monetary interventions are becoming evident.
A violation of the long-term bullish trend and a failure to recover will signal the beginning of the next “bear market” cycle. Such will then change portfolio allocations to be either “neutral or short.” BUT, and most importantly, until that violation occurs, portfolios should remain either long or neutral.

Conclusion
The current market advance against a backdrop of deteriorating economics and fundamentals is certainly worth worrying about. However, with Central Banks furiously flooding the system with liquidity, the “risk” of “fighting the Fed,” potentially outweighs the reward.

How long it can last is anyone’s guess. However, importantly, it should be remembered that all good things do come to an end. Sometimes, those endings can be very disastrous to long-term investing objectives. This is why focusing on “risk controls” in the short term and avoiding subsequent major drawdowns will allow the long-term returns to take care of themselves.


Everyone approaches money management differently. Our process isn’t perfect, but it works more often than not.
The important message is to have a process that can mitigate the risk of loss in your portfolio.
Does this mean you will never lose money? Of course, not.
The goal is not to lose so much money that you can’t recover from it.
I hope you find something useful in it.

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https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment...ions/ob250416/

An Abrupt and Cascading Dislocation
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John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust
Special Interim Comment: April 16, 2025

Brief Observations
The Market Climate remains on a Crash Warning. We have to allow for the possibility of the usual fast, furious bear market rallies that can occur after the market becomes oversold. Overall, our position remains defensive, but we’re managing our positions in a way that accommodates a bounce. It’s unfortunate, in my view, that investors have so much faith that a monetary easing can and will bail out the economy and the stock market. My view is fairly simple – the economic boom we’ve enjoyed has been driven by an inordinate amount of leverage, much of it of very poor credit quality, and by capital spending financed through the import of foreign savings. In an environment where demand for new capital investment was strong, easy bank credit and ample foreign savings fed extremely good economic growth rates. But I believe we are past that point here.”
– John P. Hussman, Ph.D., Market Comment, December 19, 2000

It can be dangerous to attempt trading bear market rallies early into a decline – especially when valuations remain rich. It’s useful to remember that the 1929 and 1987 crashes started after the S&P 500 was already down about 14% from its highs. So emerging panic is not enough – there has to be some basis to believe that a positive shift in investor attitudes toward risk would be sustainable. What we do observe, however, is that prices are somewhat oversold on a very short-term basis, so it’s reasonable to allow for one of those fast, furious bounces to clear that condition… investors should not immediately abandon caution when they emerge.”
– John P. Hussman, Market Comment, June 23, 2008

Remember that the first line down following a market peak is typically vertical. The steep initial losses typically make investors feel like fools to sell into the decline, and the clearing rallies that follow convince them that everything is still fine. That process, in repeated sequence, is why investors tend to hold on the whole way down, often eventually capitulating at the lows.”
– John P. Hussman, Ph.D., You’re Soaking In It, July 21, 2024

I’ve regularly described the period since early 2022 as the extended peak of the third great speculative bubble in U.S. history. As I noted in the April comment, Humpty Dumpty was Pushed, I believe that process is now complete. As discussed in that comment, our Recession Warning Composite also now indicates the likelihood of an oncoming recession in the U.S. economy.

In our day-to-day investment discipline, we’ve had several opportunities to vary the intensity of our defensive investment stance, some informed by the hedging implementation I described last September (for more, see Asking a Better Question, Subsets and Sensibility, and the section titled “The Martian” in The Turtle and the Pendulum), and some in response very short-lived “compression syndromes” that I’ve regularly discussed over the years.

While we remain open to changes in market conditions, as well as periodic “fast, furious, prone-to-failure” advances that can relieve the oversold “compression” produced by market losses, we are presently on high alert for a possibly abrupt and cascading market and economic dislocation in the weeks ahead.

The trap door swings open
At its core, a market crash is nothing but risk-aversion meeting a market that’s not priced to tolerate risk. We always become concerned about “trap door” outcomes when rich valuations are joined by deterioration in the uniformity of market internals – which is our most reliable gauge of speculation versus risk-aversion among investors.

Our concerns about trap door conditions become even more pointed when investor confidence has been destabilized. Recall that the 1929 and 1987 crashes started after the S&P 500 was already down about 14% from its highs. As a general rule-of-thumb, when investors are jolted by a decline in the S&P 500 of 10% or more from its 10-week high, and Baa corporate yields or credit spreads are widening, “trap door” conditions tend to be resolved by abrupt and often substantial market losses.

The chart below shows what this looks like, in data since 1928. The blue line is the S&P 500 Index (left scale, log). The red bars show instances that are assigned our most negative return/risk classification – based on measurable, observable market conditions such as valuations and market internals – coupled with a loss in the S&P 500 of more than 10% from its 10-week high and deteriorating Baa credit conditions (versus 6 months prior). The green line (right scale, log) is the cumulative return of the S&P 500 in the 65 weeks since 1928 when this particular set of conditions has been in effect. It’s a rare syndrome, but it has regularly occurred at the breakpoint of memorable market collapses, including 1929, 1987, 2000, 2008, and 2020.
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Notice that the green line looks as if it’s almost a stairstep. That’s because steep losses are so common once the trap door swings open. I’ve periodically described this sort of environment as a “crash warning.” Emphatically, that term is not intended as a forecast, but simply as a shorthand for market conditions that are often followed by abrupt mismatch of desired selling versus desired buying, and are typically resolved with price declines large enough to bring the two into equilibrium. Again, not a single share is sold that is not also bought at the same moment. What matters for prices is which person – the seller or the buyer – is more eager.

The chart below shows the largest loss in the S&P 500 – on a weekly closing basis – in the 6-week period following each of the instances above.
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One way to understand abrupt market losses is to consider what I’ve often called the “Iron Law of Equilibrium.” Every share of stock that’s been issued must be held by some investor at every point in time. Investors cannot “get out” of stocks, in aggregate, nor can they “get into” stocks, in aggregate. Every dollar a buyer brings “into” the market is taken “out of” the market by a seller. Every dollar a seller wishes to take “out of” the market has to come “into” the market from a buyer.

Consider, for simplicity, two sets of market participants – “trend-following” investors whose demand reflects backward looking market returns, and “value-conscious” investors whose demand reflects the level of market valuations and, by extension, expected future returns.
As I’ve shown in simulations of this kind of equilibrium, when prices are unusually elevated relative to the norm, it’s almost always because trend-followers (and other price-insensitive buyers) are “all in.” Those positions are – and in fact have to be – offset by equal and opposite underweights by value-conscious investors. A sudden decrease in the desired holdings of trend-followers and price-insensitive traders has to be satisfied by inducing a price decline large enough to give value-conscious investors an incentive to buy.

At its core, a market crash is nothing but risk-aversion meeting a market that’s not priced to tolerate risk. We always become concerned about “trap door” outcomes when rich valuations are joined by deterioration in the uniformity of market internals – which is our most reliable gauge of speculation versus risk-aversion among investors. Our concerns about trap door conditions become even more pointed when investor confidence has been destabilized. We are presently on high alert for a possibly abrupt and cascading market and economic dislocation in the weeks ahead.

As always, nothing in our investment discipline relies on forecasts, particularly involving extreme outcomes like those above. Instead, our discipline is to align our investment outlook with prevailing, measurable, observable market conditions, and to change our outlook as those conditions change. Even amid the initial break of what we view as the third great speculative bubble in U.S. history, we’ve had multiple opportunities to vary the intensity of our defensive outlook in response to market behavior, and we continue to watch for “compression syndromes” that can produce “fast, furious, prone-to-failure” market advances to clear oversold conditions.

For now, I would describe present market conditions as a “crash warning” – featuring an environment that includes extreme valuations, broken market internals, and destabilized investor confidence. Nothing in these conditions ensures a market collapse – abrupt crashes are the rarest of events, and investors should approach current risks with that understanding. Still, we should be aware that virtually all market crashes share a common feature – risk-aversion meeting a market that’s not priced to tolerate risk.

A final risk
Because silence can be equal to consent, I’ll add that these unfavorable market conditions are joined by other observable elements that are deeply troubling in my view: the rapid descent of the U.S. toward an autocracy that normalizes the unchecked abuse of power; dispenses with the rule of law, due process, and human rights; dismantles democratic institutions; replaces career civil servants with loyalists; systematically defunds public health research and disease surveillance; retaliates against critics; raises barriers to access of Social Security offices and earned benefits; pressures law firms not to represent clients; exploits every opportunity for self-dealing; defunds universities, purges libraries, and whitewashes museums of so-called “improper ideology”; maligns journalists and bars access to news organizations that resist absurd demands; abandons, betrays, and disparages allies; openly seeks to annex sovereign countries; floods public dialogue with disinformation, grievance, fear, division, and false narratives; expels independent Inspectors General along with the capacity of the public to demand accountability; and deliberately erodes constitutional constraints in favor of personal dictate.

Perhaps the escalating risk of a market crash and cascading economic dislocation isn’t surprising after all.
We’re more than this. More than our division. More than the blame we cast on the other “side.” All of us are made of this shared substance of common humanity. The tragedy is that in our anger, we can’t see it – only us versus them. As my beloved friend and teacher Thich Nhat Hanh often said, “Enlightenment is the moment a wave recognizes that it is the water.”

Our enemy isn’t each other – even the people we blame for all of our own suffering since the time we were 5 years old have suffered themselves since the time they were 5 years old. The blame falls to hatred, injustice, and ignorance themselves; the greed, violence, abuse, and lack of compassion that come from our illusion that “we” and “them” are separate; the failure to even consider how the other side has suffered – something both liberals and conservatives share; and worst, the destructive impulse to eliminate everything – even human beings – that we associate with the other “side.” All of us risk falling into that trap, and we can see our way out. If we have the insight to see that the other person also suffers, we know better what to do, and what not to do, to go forward.

Look, I’ll speak out and fight against hatred, division, avarice, corruption, and injustice all day long. But it’s those elements, not human beings, that are the enemy. I hope others do the same, but also always considering the suffering of the other “side.” Even those who fight for the dignity and equality of others – especially those who are different – have to be mindful enough to see the moment when others feel threatened that those differences will overwhelm their way of life. When any side goes unheard for too long, their response is often to destroy, even without considering the consequences. My concern is that it’s happening within our government and nation right now.

This is, because that is
This is not, because that is not
They are like this, because we are like that
They are not like this, because we are not like that
– Buddha

Despite our differences, and a thousand failures to become “a more perfect union,” we still have the capacity to listen to each other and work together to solve problems. We still have the chance to preserve a United States of America that dignifies the patriots who sacrificed their lives for this precious democracy – this Constitutionally based republic – without dispensing with “democracy,” or “Constitution”, or “United.” In our anger and division, we are further along the path of losing that precious inheritance than we may want to admit.

By submitting this form, you consent to receive news and commentary, at no cost, from Hussman Strategic Advisors, News & Commentary, Cincinnati OH, 45246. https://www.hussmanfunds.com. You can revoke your consent to receive emails at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link at the bottom of every email. Emails are serviced by Constant Contact.

The foregoing comments represent the general investment analysis and economic views of the Advisor, and are provided solely for the purpose of information, instruction and discourse.

Prospectuses for the Hussman Strategic Market Cycle Fund, the Hussman Strategic Total Return Fund, and the Hussman Strategic Allocation Fund, as well as Fund reports and other information, are available by clicking Prospectus & Reports under “The Funds” menu button on any page of this website.

The S&P 500 Index is a commonly recognized, capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely-held equity securities, designed to measure broad U.S. equity performance. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is made up of the Bloomberg U.S. Government/Corporate Bond Index, Mortgage-Backed Securities Index, and Asset-Backed Securities Index, including securities that are of investment grade quality or better, have at least one year to maturity, and have an outstanding par value of at least $100 million. The Bloomberg US EQ:FI 60:40 Index is designed to measure cross-asset market performance in the U.S. The index rebalances monthly to 60% equities and 40% fixed income. The equity and fixed income allocation is represented by Bloomberg U.S. Large Cap Index and Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index. You cannot invest directly in an index.

Estimates of prospective return and risk for equities, bonds, and other financial markets are forward-looking statements based the analysis and reasonable beliefs of Hussman Strategic Advisors. They are not a guarantee of future performance, and are not indicative of the prospective returns of any of the Hussman Funds. Actual returns may differ substantially from the estimates provided. Estimates of prospective long-term returns for the S&P 500 reflect our standard valuation methodology, focusing on the relationship between current market prices and earnings, dividends and other fundamentals, adjusted for variability over the economic cycle. Further details relating to MarketCap/GVA (the ratio of nonfinancial market capitalization to gross-value added, including estimated foreign revenues) and our Margin-Adjusted P/E (MAPE) can be found in the Market Comment Archive under the Knowledge Center tab of this website. MarketCap/GVA: Hussman 05/18/15. MAPE: Hussman 05/05/14, Hussman 09/04/17.

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The Big Read
Pierre Poilievre’s 25-year quest to make Canadians see things his way

The Conservative leader’s tax-chopping, anti-government agenda harks back to his days as a right-wing campus activist. He’s not about to give it up now.
By Laura Osman
Photo: Illustration by Remie Geoffroi for The Logic

Apr 23, 2025 | 6:45 AM ET

Swap out the maple leaves for stars and stripes, and the Conservative rally in Canada’s automotive capital had all the hallmarks of Donald Trump’s signature events.
A massive crowd packed an unfinished warehouse in Windsor, Ont., down the street from the Stellantis assembly plant where workers had been idled by the U.S. president’s trade war. Some supporters arrived with flags draped over their shoulders, or wearing sports jerseys as a show of national pride. Others showed up waving signs carrying the oft-repeated slogans of their leader, who got a rock star’s reception as he stepped onto the riser at the centre of the room.

Talking Points

1. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s dedication to ideas he’s held since he was young has defined his political career and the campaign he hopes will carry him to the Prime Minister’s Office
2. Those who’ve worked with closely with him say he’s known exactly what he’s wanted to accomplish for decades, and he’s not likely to deviate from that plan—even if political fate seems intent on blowing him off course

“Great sign,” Poilievre said, pointing to a bristol board with his “Axe the Tax” motto scrawled across it. “We’ve got some good signs, very smart people in Windsor.”
Most, though, waved signs carrying a single word: change. Surrounded by supporters on all sides, and framed by a massive Canadian flag, the word hung over him. “Who is voting to put Canada first, for a change?” he asked the hundreds of fervent supporters.

Though his events are drenched in Canadian symbols, Poilievre’s words are a reminder of the high-wire act he is attempting on his way to Monday’s federal election. His promise to counter Trump’s “America First” agenda with a “Canada First” plan carries undeniable echoes of the thing it purports to oppose—and the callbacks don’t stop there.

Like Trump, Poilievre’s most potent messages are crafted as rhyming or alliterative slogans and insulting nicknames (Spike the hike! Carbon Tax Carney!) and he’s much more likely to reach for a metaphorical sledgehammer than a scalpel to make a point. Like Trump, he’s promised sweeping cuts to taxes and foreign aid and plans to shrink the public service.

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Carmichael: In the battle of Carney and Poilievre, there’s more at stake than who wins

Poilievre’s refusal to shift in tone and message stirred dissent among Conservatives from the start of the campaign. How can they claim to be an antidote to Trump, veteran Conservatives have asked, when their leader sounds so much like the U.S. president? But it also highlighted a feature of Poilievre’s temperament that has shaped his political career, and is likely to influence how he’d govern should his party win. Far from pivoting, he has insisted that his combative style and affinity for catch phrases predate Trump’s presidencies, and are deeply rooted in Canada’s own political history.

The “Canada First” slogan isn’t a ripoff of Trump’s rallying call, but an homage to a 1904 speech by the Liberal prime minister Wilfred Laurier, appealing to Canada’s young men to boldly pursue Canadian development and freedom in the 20th century. And while Poilievre, 45, has struggled against comparisons to Trump for years, the same populist policy ideas laid out in that hour-long speech in Windsor, and at rallies across the country, have been driving him since he was a young man.
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Pierre Poilievre uses wordplay and patriotic slogans to stoke up crowds at events like his recent rally in Windsor, Ont. Photo: The Canadian Press/Dax Melmer
Poilievre did not respond to a request for an interview for this story, and his office would not allow anyone on his team to speak publicly. The Logic did, however, speak with more than a dozen of Poilievre’s current and former political colleagues and staff. Many refused to comment on the record, for fear of rebuke from the campaign. Yet all agreed he’s pursued his ideas with a single-minded zeal in preparation for this election and the highest elected office in the country. Poilievre shows no sign of wavering, they say, even as it’s become unclear whether the same ideas that propelled him through the ranks of his party to the top of the polls will deliver victory now that the moment has changed.

Since MPs departed Ottawa in December, after all, the political landscape has transformed. Poilievre’s years-long nemesis Justin Trudeau made way at the helm of the Liberal party for former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, undermining the Conservatives’ call for change at the top. Trump’s crushing tariffs and threats against Canadian sovereignty turned attention away from the issues of affordability and taxation that served as the foundation of Poilievre’s message. Seemingly overnight, the Conservatives became underdogs in an election they’d been poised only months earlier to win in a landslide.

Pundits and party insiders have called for a strategy shift to respond to the new political reality. But in a February speech to supporters in Ottawa, Poilievre scoffed at the idea of altering course. “The media is now saying that I should change my entire platform because of the tariff threat,” he said, soliciting jeers from the crowd. “In fact, the Trump tariff threats have proven Conservatives right on everything.”

Poilievre’s ideas are traceable farther back than those of most politicians, to a now famous essay he submitted to Magna International’s 1999 contest under the title “Building Canada Through Freedom.” In it, a 20-year-old Poilievre told Canadians for the first time what he would do as prime minister. The winning essays appeared in a book called @stake, accompanied by photos of young Poilievre and his pet corgi, Champ.

Some passages read like early drafts of his current campaign speeches. “A growing number of our brightest young people are fleeing to the United States, where they see more opportunity. To reverse these trends, Canada must capitalize on its innovation by allowing investment to flow unhindered through the economy,” Poilievre wrote. “If we are to retain our brightest minds, we must allow skilled workers to earn rewarding salaries, without losing half of their earnings to a punitive tax regime.”

“They were literally sleeping on mattresses in people’s basements as they’d go from city to city. They saw themselves as a sort of ragtag group of revolutionaries.”
The essay’s core ideas, including drastic tax cuts on income and capital gains, are now central pillars of Poilievre’s platform. His devotion to them goes back even farther, though, as does his contempt for what he describes as the neglected state of Canadian institutions and, most especially, government getting in the way of individual freedoms.

Poilievre was born to a 16-year old mother and adopted and raised by two school teachers in the Conservative heartland in Calgary. By the time he got to the University of Calgary he was already politically active—a gawky but outspoken member of the school’s conservative clubs and the Model United Nations, cutting his political teeth by trying them on his classmates.

The university was home to the so-called Calgary School, a group of four political science professors—Tom Flanagan, Rainer Knopff, Ted Morton and Barry Cooper—who shaped a brand of Conservative thought that informed the policies of the Reform party, the right-wing populist movement born in the late 1980s of western alienation and desire for small government and low taxation.

The school’s Reform club announced it would take the student union to court in 1998 after its club privileges were revoked over unauthorized posters and stickers on campus. While the student union decried the court threat as “legal terrorism,” Poilievre, the club’s vice-president, protested the sanctions at a rally where supporters delivered eulogies to freedom and democracy. The club members and their supporters marched through the halls of the campus past “speakers’ corner,” an unofficial debate ground where Poilievre honed his sparring skills and knack for political communications.

There, news cameras recorded a young Poilievre applauding the speeches while wearing a kind of young conservative uniform: a bright blue-collared shirt and golden-yellow patterned tie. The event attracted the notice of Jason Kenney, a Reform party MP for whom Poilievre went on to intern in Ottawa.
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Poilievre clapping during a Reform club speech at the University of Calgary in 1998. Photo: Screengrab via CBC News
Poilievre later recalled the quarrel as one of his early battles with the “far left,” and he has been dedicated to that ideological struggle ever since. As a young, ambitious foot soldier, he looked to Alberta cabinet minister Stockwell Day as his first general.

In 2000, Poilievre and a group of likeminded college kids attempted to recruit Day to run for leader of the new Canadian Alliance party—the Reform party successor meant to unite the country’s schismatic conservative movement—and promised to help him get elected. Day says he was struck by Poilievre’s “lack of fear.”

Breaking from the party’s founder, Preston Manning, was a renegade move in Poilievre’s circle at the time. The young university upstart was drawn to Day’s genuine distaste for overtaxation and regulation. Day recalls thinking: “Here’s a guy who really feels strongly about something. He has a sense of purpose.”

Even then, Poilievre was certain about the kind of government he wanted in Ottawa and was willing to hustle for it. He and his group of young, conservative male teammates, many of them still too young to vote, posted up in what The Globe and Mail described at the time as a nondescript Calgary office building filled with banks of telephones to make fundraising calls for Day’s campaign. Day’s devotees even branded their efforts with a nickname.

“Boys and girls, we got $500 here!” Poilievre hollered when 19-year-old Oliver Bladek scored a donation from Ponoka, Alta., the Globe said. “Way to go, Ollie. You’re in Fight Club.”

“It’s the view that politics is more than just a debate over policy and values, it’s something more than that. The stakes are higher.”
The team’s moniker was a reference to the David Fincher film that came out the year before, and Poilievre filled Brad Pitt’s role of Tyler Durden, the charismatic ringleader of a group of disaffected men who join an underground fight club. Presumably, the comparison did not extend to the later half of the film, when the club devolves into a violent, anti-consumerist terrorist organization dedicated to overthrowing modern civilization.

“At the start—the early days, you know—some of these guys, they were literally sleeping on mattresses in people’s basements as they’d go from city to city, setting up the organization and working late into the night,” says Day, who wound up winning the leadership. “They saw themselves as a sort of ragtag group of revolutionaries.”

That sense of mission never seemed to fade for Poilievre, even after Day led the Alliance to defeat in the 2000 federal election, winning the Liberals a third straight majority. Stephen Harper took over the Alliance shortly after, and united the party with the Progressive Conservatives in 2003 to form the Conservative Party of Canada.

It was in that period of uncertainty and political transformation that Poilievre arrived in Ottawa. In 2002, he had dropped out of his international relations program just a few credits shy of graduation. He’d instead gone to work for Day, who was serving under Harper as foreign affairs critic. The young staffer would go on to finish his courses in 2008, but never left Parliament Hill.

“Even in days of yore, when we were all like 20-something young politicos, he always had that particular drive and focus that made him stand apart,” says Yaroslav Baran, the co-founder of political consultancy firm Pendulum. The two got their starts in Ottawa as eager young political staffers at about the same time. But Poilievre, says Baran, “was always something of a ringleader among young conservatives.” His peers knew he was aiming for the heights of Canadian politics.

A photo from those days, taken at a conservative conference, captured a young Poilievre sporting frosted tips in his hair but wearing a blue shirt and yellow tie strikingly similar to the one he wore years earlier at the campus rally. He and fellow future Conservative leader Andrew Scheer are seen chatting with Baran’s future wife, Tara Katrusiak. Poilievre has often told Baran and Katruskiak’s children that he introduced their parents at that conference. Baran isn’t sure, but says with a laugh: “He has said it so many times now that I second-guess myself … I’ll take his word for it.”
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Poilievre, far left, at a conference in 2000 with Tara Katrusiak, centre, and other young conservatives including Andrew Scheer, second from right. Photo: Republished with express permission of Ottawa Citizen, a division of Postmedia Network Inc.

Poilievre’s tight-knit group of fellow Reform party volunteers and Canadian Alliance staffers included not only Scheer—now one of the few Conservative members trusted to address the public on the party’s behalf—but other stalwarts of his current, rather selective inner circle. Chief among them is Jenni Byrne. His girlfriend during those early years on the Hill, Byrne is now his most senior adviser and campaign manager.

Byrne was a fierce political operative who eventually served as Harper’s deputy chief of staff. They shared a view of politics and the world, and Poilievre even got her a corgi of her own, named Ty.

Like Byrne, Poilievre hails from the populist tradition of the Reform party, which Baran says targets elite institutions, big corporations and big government. He describes the outlook thusly: “Just because government tells you something, doesn’t mean it’s true. Just because the big banks tell you they’ve got your back, doesn’t mean they do, you know, and being sensitive to ordinary people getting squashed by large economic or political or governmental forces.”

Though Poilievre and Byrne broke up after about a decade, they emerged as a political power duo again years later when Poilievre sought a like-minded team to run his leadership bid. “He had a very strong vision for what he wanted to do, and therefore attracted those types of people,” says Ginny Roth, who worked as Poilievre’s director of communications during the leadership campaign. “We were all kind of clear on the mission from day one.”

Roth hadn’t formally met Poilievre when he reached out to hire her. “I thought he was sort of calling around for support,” she says. “It was a conversation that, in retrospect, is totally him. There were not a lot of pleasantries. We just jumped right into a really substantive conversation about what he should be running on, what the opportunity was, how we win the next election as Conservatives.”

While some politicians expand their influence by building personal connections throughout their career, Roth says Poilievre isn’t a “relationships person” in the same sense. “I think he’s very seriously in love with his wife [Anaida] and obsessed with his children, and I think he has a few old friends that he has remained very, very close to, and that’s sort of it,” she said. “I think his life is very, very optimized towards his singular obsessions.”

It’s been clear what Poilievre’s most singular obsession has been over the last few years, as he’s campaigned to become the prime minister. To that end, Roth says, he pushes himself to connect with people at his rallies and public appearances—something she said she admires because it doesn’t come naturally to him.

Roth was living in Toronto and had been working for Poilievre for months before she met him in person. He was in town for a rally at the Steam Whistle brewery, shaking hands and taking photos with a long line of supporters. Roth stopped in to see the crowd, and walked past the photo line with a wave before heading back out into the rain. She heard someone yell her name and turned to see Poilievre sprinting toward her to give her a hug.

“I thought it was just funny at the moment,” she recalls, “because it was like, ‘You’re such an automaton, almost, about how obsessive you are on your various things that you’re focused on, and your performance in a given day.’ It was extra meaningful for that reason.”

Since he took over, the party has been steered by Poilievre and a small group of advisers in an approach that Alex Marland, a politics professor at Acadia University, describes as top-down even by today’s standards. “I think the expression that some people would use is command and control,” says Marland, who holds Acadia’s Jarislowsky chair in trust and political leadership.
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Poilievre and his wife Anaida celebrate their son Cruz's birthday during a Conservative national caucus gathering in Ottawa. Photo: Getty Images/Dave Chan
Building parties around their leaders and centralizing decision-making in their offices has become a mainstay of modern politics, Marland says, and was a feature of both the Harper and Trudeau governments. It has allowed Poilievre to shut out political noise to calibrate his messaging, Marland says, but can leave elected MPs without a voice, contributing to political polarization. “The real problem is the fact that we end up electing so many MPs who are terrified to say the wrong thing, who rarely ever question anything.”

The election campaign has provided a preview of that risk to Poilievre, whose strategy seemed sound until Trump upended Canadians’ priorities and Carney entered the race. The Conservatives’ slide in the polls was met with alarm bells among senior party members outside Poilievre’s team. Several spoke out anonymously about the campaign’s continued focus on the Liberal government’s record rather than on Trump. Though Poilievre made subtle adjustments, taking more direct aim at
Trump’s trade threats and “51st state” talk, critics inside the party are frustrated that his small circle seems unwilling to listen to their concerns.

Poilievre sounds unswayed. “All the things that we need to do to respond to the economic aggression of the Americans are things I’ve been talking about for 10 years,” he said recently on the campaign trail. “I’ve stood up for tax cuts that will unleash growth in our economy over the last 10 years—in fact, over my entire career. The unjustified threats by President Trump further strengthen the argument in favour of the Canada-first agenda that I’ve been fighting for my whole life.”

Poilievre does occasionally look outside his immediate circle for advice, Baran says, especially to political veterans with enough distance to reflect. Day has received such calls. So did the late Brian Mulroney, the prime minister who set Canada on a course of liberalized trade by signing a deal with the U.S. in 1988.

“He often turned to my dad for political counsel,” Mulroney’s daughter and Ontario Treasury Board President Caroline Mulroney said 11 days into the campaign, as she introduced Poilievre for a speech in Toronto. Her father was one of the first people to contribute to Poilievre’s first election campaign, Mulroney said. In his speech,

Poilievre remarked: “I wish I could pick up the phone and seek his advice right now.”
As the election campaign neared the halfway point, another former Conservative prime minister lent a hand. Some 12,000 supporters by the party’s count crammed into a massive warehouse not far from the Edmonton airport in Nisku, Alta., in what may have been the biggest political rally since Trudeaumania gripped Canada in
1968. That night, Stephen Harper made his first campaign stop in a decade to endorse Poilievre for prime minister.

“I have known Pierre Poilievre for a quarter of a century, since he was a very young man,” said Harper. He rattled off the progression of positions Poilievre has held, in a way that framed the leader’s status as a lifelong politician as a positive. “In all of those roles, he worked, he fought and he learned. Because it is not just that Pierre excelled in all of those roles. In all of them he grew, he got better and better,” Harper said.

Still, Poilievre is better known for following his own judgment when it runs counter to conventional wisdom—and doggedly seeing it through. Day recollects him as a young staffer stopping by on a January evening after working late to discuss running for Parliament.

“I said, ‘Well, that’s great. You’re well known in Calgary,’” Day recalls. But Poilievre said he wanted to run in Ottawa, in a riding held by a popular Liberal cabinet minister, David Pratt. He spotted an opportunity to unite right-leaning constituents in Nepean-Carleton in west Ottawa, whose votes had previously been split between the Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives, effectively handing the Liberals easy wins. Still, even winning the party nomination against five other candidates, experienced politicians among them, was a long shot for Poilievre, Day thought. “I asked a quiet prayer of forgiveness to myself, and said, ‘Sure, it’s a great idea.’”

According to Day, Poilievre worked long hours at his regular job on Parliament Hill and then drove to the rural and suburban neighbourhoods in Carleton to knock on doors. That was the last time Poilievre ran an underdog campaign. His slogan at that time was “Rock Solid Conservative.” He referred to his opponent by the dismissive nickname “Liberal Pratt.”

“He was willing to put up with hardship to get his message out,” says Day, “and he did it, won the nomination, won the election, and the rest is history.”
At 25, Poilievre was among the youngest MPs elected in 2004. Poilievre’s first speech in the House of Commons, usually reserved for lauding a constituent or local cause, was a scathing condemnation of then-prime minister Paul Martin and his political appointments. “Since taking office the prime minister has engaged in a smorgasbord of patronage that is so impressive it would make even his predecessor blush,” Poilievre said, adopting a rhythm now familiar to his opponents. “If this new king of cronyism will not stop the Liberal bonanza, the only thing Canadians will condemn to history is his government.”

Without private sector experience or even a university degree, Poilievre made himself indispensable with his sharp tongue and undiluted partisanship. Andrew Lawton, Poilievre’s biographer and now a Conservative candidate, wrote in his book that when the Conservatives formed government in 2006, Poilievre became part of a semi-secret club of MPs within the party’s ideological right. It was known by several names, but “ultimately came to be known as the ‘Khmer Bleu,’ a tongue-in-cheek play on the Khmer Rouge, the Cambodian communist regime of the 1970s.”

The group’s goal was to offset the influence of Red Tories and Quebec Conservatives, who Poilievre felt had an outsized influence in caucus meetings. The group of staunch conservatives claimed credit for Harper’s decision to cut the GST to five per cent, Lawton said.
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Poilievre quickly made himself indispensable to his party in the House of Commons. Photo: The Canadian Press/Sean Kilpatrick and Adrian Wyld
Poilievre’s ardour for fiscal restraint has remained constant through his decades in Parliament. At his campaign rally in Windsor, he delivered a well-practised economic lecture on inflation like a veteran rock act performing its greatest hit. “You see, the costs are not going up. The buying power of your money is going down.

That is what inflation is, and it’s all the result of massive overspending in Ottawa,” he said, to a swell of cheers.
Carney, a former central banker twice over, accused Poilieve at the outset of the campaign of preaching about the economy without the knowledge to back it up, having spent years in Ottawa earning a living from the public purse. “He’s that type of lifelong politician, and I have seen this type around the world, who worships at the altar of the free market despite never having made a payroll,” Carney said in his first speech as Liberal leader. He argued Poilievre lacked the real-world experience to steer Canada’s economy and take on Trump’s trade war.

Poilievre countered that he has “quite a lot” of experience that prepared him for the prime minister’s office. “I was the minister of jobs and housing in the Harper government, during which time housing cost half as much as it does today,” he said at a press conference before the official start of the election. “I helped Mr. Harper cut the GST, cut income tax, cut business tax and balance the budget. Over my time in Parliament I’ve been scrutinizing and studying the books on the public accounts committee, the operations committee, the finance committee.”

Without question, he’s been charged with some of his party’s thorniest files. In 2013, as Harper’s minister of state for democratic reform, Poilievre had to stickhandle changes to the Senate to impose fixed terms on senators and consult provinces on appointments (which were ultimately deemed unconstitutional) amid a scandal involving inappropriate expenses of three Harper-appointed senators. That meant trying to put a positive spin on the prime minister’s chief of staff cutting Harper-appointed Sen. Mike Duffy a $90,000 personal cheque to cover inappropriate expenses billed to the government.

He ushered in controversial reforms to crack down on election fraud in what came to be known by critics as the “unfair elections act.” The legislation eliminated the ability for people without identification to vote even if they were on the voters’ list and had someone to vouch for them. The bill raised constitutional concerns, but in hearings and debates, Poilievre kept on the rhetorical offensive, frustrating opposition members. Wayne Easter, the Liberal MP for Malpeque, P.E.I., likened dealing with him to playing chess with a pigeon. “He flaps his wings all over the place, knocks the pieces off the table, messes all over the table, then struts around like he won the game,” Easter said in the House, flapping his arms like a bird.

Baran says Poilievre’s style in the House has mellowed, noting the leader has adopted a more “deadpan” tone, infuriating his opponents without raising his voice. In Baran’s view, that could prove useful: “He’s a glib and sharp communicator. I think that’s going to be very important in facing off with Donald Trump and his economic attacks on our country.”

Others argue that Poilievre’s sharp tongue, personal attacks and hyperbolic style still make him seem like the U.S. president. “On important issues, Poilievre, like Donald Trump, sees politics as a zero-sum game,” wrote another Poilievre biographer, Mark Bourrie, in his book Ripper: The Making of Pierre Poilievre.
His reflexive instinct to score a point has been known to land him in trouble. On the same day as Harper’s historic 2008 apology for residential schools on behalf of the Canadian government, Poilievre told an Ottawa talk-radio host he wasn’t sure the government was “getting value for all of this money” spent to compensate residential school survivors. “My view is that we need to engender the values of hard work and independence and self-reliance,” he continued. “That’s the solution in the long run—more money will not solve it.” He apologized in the House of Commons the next day.

If there was one moment when Canadians noticed a change in Poilievre, it was in 2023 when he launched onto the summer BBQ circuit as Conservative leader. The collared shirt and tie he’d sported since university had been replaced by a sport coat and T-shirt. His specs were replaced with aviator sunglasses.
“My wife says I look better without glasses, so I have to keep her happy,” Poilievre joked at a stop in Niagara Falls, Ont. After more than a decade in the public eye, the difference was so stark it made headlines and inspired sketch comedy bits.

The Conservatives had struggled to find their footing after being cast back into opposition in 2015, when Trudeau led his party to a comeback victory. After Scheer led the party to defeat in the 2019 election, Poilievre considered running to succeed his longtime friend, according to Lawton, but ultimately decided against it for family reasons.

Eighteen months after that leadership race, though, and a Conservative election loss under Erin O’Toole, Poilievre mounted his campaign for the helm of the party, tapping an appetite within it for uncompromising conservatism. With a chance at last to put his ideas to work, he decisively won.
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Poilievre's leadership run tapped an appetite among party members for undiluted strain of conservatism. Photo: Getty Images/Nurphoto
The following summer, 2023, saw Poilievre surge in opinion polls as the public soured on Justin Trudeau. His message was built on foundational principles he developed early on as a political volunteer and activist in the reform movement: supply-side solutions like lower taxes and less regulation; and conservative mainstays like getting tough on crime. He summed them up in a list of pithy slogans: “Axe the tax, build the homes, fix the budget, stop the crime.” As the Conservatives’ lead over the Liberals widened, he rattled off the list almost daily.

His approach to policy is much more involved than those few words imply, says Roth, who does not have a role in his current campaign. “If he confronts a new challenge, he first goes back to, what are the first principles here?” she says. “Then he kind of goes into data- and evidence-gathering mode, and really tries to consume a lot of information from trusted sources.” Often, Poilievre does that data gathering himself until he feels like he’s personally on firm footing, she adds.

Lastly, Roth says, he thinks about the politics.
The housing issue is a prime example, she says. “A lot of politicians, for a long time, might have thought it’s the right thing to do to increase housing supply, but the boomers will get mad at us,” she says. “I think Poilievre was like, ‘No, the principle and evidence are so compelling that if we can make the politics work, we should.’”
That put Poilievre into a position not of simply following the votes, but convincing the public of his position and finding new demographic groups, like millennials, to grow his tent. Even after his poll numbers softened at the start of the current campaign, his support among young men remains strong.

That process, based on Poilievre’s ingrained principles and worldview, is likely to inform how he would run his office if his party wins, says Dan Robertson, Harper’s former director of strategic communications. The two worked closely together during Robertson’s time in government under Harper, and again under O’Toole in 2020.

They had a weekly standing phone call until a few years ago, when O’Toole demoted Poilievre from his role as finance critic. Poilievre’s current campaign bears a close resemblance to the ideas the two used to chat about in those calls, says Robertson, who is now a political strategist and co-founder of Orb Advocacy.

Watching him put those ideas to work now makes Robertson think a prime minister Poilievre would take cues from Harper, who resolutely kept his government focused on core economic priorities amid upheavals like the war in Afghanistan and the Senate expense scandal. “As this whirlwind was taking place above it all, you could discern that constant narrative, and I think that you’ll see that with Poilievre, maybe even to a greater extent,” Robertson says.

There’s a risk, though, over-indexing on consistency and planning, he says. Unexpected crises—like, say, the election of a U.S. president bent on taking shots at Canada’s economy— can knock governments off track. Robertson quotes the boxer Mike Tyson’s famous axiom: “Everybody has a strategy until you punch them in the face.”

The rigidity is born of an understanding of politics as “bloodless civil war,” says Robertson—an outlook he believes Poilievre shares with Harper. “It’s the view that politics is more than just a debate over policy and values, it’s something more than that. The stakes are higher,” he says. Poilievre, perhaps more than any politician the country has seen, relishes political combat, he adds. “His leadership style as prime minister would be characterized by discipline, intensity and an uncompromising laser-sharp focus on execution.”

The country’s business establishment got a taste of those battle-ready instincts when the Liberal government proposed last year to hike capital gains taxes. Corporate leaders, Poilievre said, were “blowing up” his phone. “They yelp: ‘What are you going to do about this?’ My answer: ‘No. What are you going to do about it?’” the Conservative leader wrote in a National Post op-ed that scorned business groups for crying to him about unfavourable policy instead of making their own case to the public.

“Most are stunned silent by the question,” he wrote. “They had been planning to do nothing except complain and hope their useless and overpaid lobbyists meet Chrystia Freeland or Justin Trudeau to talk some sense into them while the Opposition hounds the government to reverse course.”

The rebuke was published after the Liberals announced plans to hold a separate vote on the tax measure in hopes of forcing the Conservatives to publicly oppose a tax hike on the wealthy. To say the least, Poilievre’s response broke from the long-standing Conservative tradition of representing business interests. In the op-ed, he called for companies to cancel their lunch plans at the exclusive Ottawa Rideau Club, fire their lobbyists and “go to the people.” It was a throwback to his Reform party aversion to the clubby nature of Parliament Hill. Then, having inoculated himself against the charge that he’s a stooge for big business, he led his party in quietly voting against the measure.

In government, however, not every challenge would so clearly play to Poilievre’s strengths—especially dealing with Trump. From the moment the U.S. president began launching broadsides against Canada, Poilievre looked uncertain. Conservative elders like Harper’s former director of communications Kory Teneycke criticized him for failing to meet the moment; the leader was slow and grudging to move off the anti-tax, anti-Trudeau messaging that no longer preoccupied voters, Teneycke warned, and his words sounded borrowed from Trump.

In other ways, though, Trump’s threats have opened a door to Poilievre’s key policies. In the face of the U.S. president’s attacks, public opinion in Canada swung sharply in favour of more oil and gas production, and even the prospect of an east-west pipeline. When Poilievre finally did speak out against the U.S. president—calling his tariffs unjustified and confirming his plans to retaliate—Trump took notice. At the end of February, he took a shot at Poilievre when asked about the Canadian Conservatives’ prospects. “I think his biggest problem is he’s not a MAGA guy, you know? I mean, he’s really not, he’s not a Trump guy at all,” the president told British news magazine The Spectator.

Gift the full article

Poilievre seized on those remarks on March 4, just as the U.S. was imposing its first round of tariffs on Canada. In the foyer outside of the House of Commons, where he’s spent his entire professional career, he stood flanked on both sides by Canadian flags. Prepared for the election that stood between him and the goal he’s worked toward for decades, he declared: “It is true, I am Canada first.”

Make what you will of the meaning of those words, or the implications for the country should Poilievre become prime minister. Just don’t ask him to change.
#2025 federal election #Conservative Party of Canada #economy #leadership #Pierre Poilievre

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HE CALLED IT PERFECTLY. RATE CUTS CANNOT STOP A RECESSION AND OTHER SERIOUS PROBLEMS IN THE MANIPULATED STOCK MARKETS.

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https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...uch-worse-2026

'Depression Cycle Is Here' Charles Nenner Warns "It Will Be Much Worse In 2026"
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg

by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025 - 09:20 AM

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,
Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner is not only predicting a big war cycle but a depression coming by the end of 2025 and into 2026.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=qmF37QtR

It’s not caused by the Trump tariffs; it’s just part of the cycle that Nenner follows. When does this big downturn start? Nenner explains, “In the next few months..."
"...and the end of this year will be a down year. 2026 will also be a down year. It’s going to be very serious. I wrote last year I expect the S&P to go down to 4,000. So, from 6,200 to 4,000 if you are in bad stocks, you could lose 50% of your money, and to get that back, you have to make 100% on what is left of your money. Then we can have a bounce and go lower again. If you look at the list of brokers, 99% are positive. They were talking about the S&P going to 6,800, and then they changed their minds when it came down.”

Nenner is predicting a down year for the stock market this year, but look out in 2026. Nenner says,
“It will be much worse in 2026 because the cycles in 1928 and 1929 are in the same position as 2025 and 2026.”
Can it shoot through 4,000 on the S&P? Nenner says,

“Most definitely, I think so, yeah . . . we expect a bounce from there before it goes down again.”
Beyond that, Nenner has long called for a DOW at 5,000. It’s nearly 39,000 today. Nenner says,
“I calculated it at 5,000, yes, and I have not calculated it for the S&P.”
That is pretty bearish, and before people pooh-pooh what Nenner is saying, listen to his logic on this subject. Nenner explains,
“Let’s take one simple assumption.

If there is a big war between China and Taiwan, do you think the market goes up? Do you think there is a chance of it – 50/50? So, there is a 50/50 chance only based on this idea the markets are not going to do well. . . .

Of course, China wants to take over Taiwan. . . . There is no history that it does not belong to China. . . . If US gets in a war with China, it will lose...
...US lost 15 out of 15 war games in simulated war with China.”

Nenner still likes gold for the long term and has been predicting it’s rise. On silver, Nenner says,
“Silver is behind, but starting in May, we expect silver to start catching up—finally.”
Nenner thinks interest rates are still in a long-term trend up, but there can be pullbacks.
Nenner also thinks the US dollar is going to be okay and will not fall much more—for now.
By the way, Nenner says he is up 40% so far in 2025.

There is more in the 37-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with renowned cycle analyst and financial expert Charles Nenner for 4.22.25.

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

Dear HHB.XYZ Who are you ? What is your point ? I have been posting on my thread since December 3, 2006, over 18 years ago.

Listen to the video and learn. I have nothing to PROVE to you or sell. You can never be a successful Forex trader because of your agenda.

Respectfully submitted to you.

'Depression Cycle Is Here' Charles Nenner Warns "It Will Be Much Worse In 2026"
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025 - 09:20 AM

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,
Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner is not only predicting a big war cycle but a depression coming by the end of 2025 and into 2026.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=qmF37QtR

It’s not caused by the Trump tariffs; it’s just part of the cycle that Nenner follows. When does this big downturn start? Nenner explains, “In the next few months..."
"...and the end of this year will be a down year. 2026 will also be a down year. It’s going to be very serious. I wrote last year I expect the S&P to go down to 4,000. So, from 6,200 to 4,000 if you are in bad stocks, you could lose 50% of your money, and to get that back, you have to make 100% on what is left of your money. Then we can have a bounce and go lower again. If you look at the list of brokers, 99% are positive. They were talking about the S&P going to 6,800, and then they changed their minds when it came down.”

Nenner is predicting a down year for the stock market this year, but look out in 2026. Nenner says,
“It will be much worse in 2026 because the cycles in 1928 and 1929 are in the same position as 2025 and 2026.”

Can it shoot through 4,000 on the S&P? Nenner says,
“Most definitely, I think so, yeah . . . we expect a bounce from there before it goes down again.”

Beyond that, Nenner has long called for a DOW at 5,000. It’s nearly 39,000 today. Nenner says,
“I calculated it at 5,000, yes, and I have not calculated it for the S&P.”

That is pretty bearish, and before people pooh-pooh what Nenner is saying, listen to his logic on this subject. Nenner explains,
“Let’s take one simple assumption.

If there is a big war between China and Taiwan, do you think the market goes up? Do you think there is a chance of it – 50/50? So, there is a 50/50 chance only based on this idea the markets are not going to do well. . . .

Of course, China wants to take over Taiwan. . . . There is no history that it does not belong to China. . . . If US gets in a war with China, it will lose...
...US lost 15 out of 15 war games in simulated war with China.”

Nenner still likes gold for the long term and has been predicting it’s rise. On silver, Nenner says,
“Silver is behind, but starting in May, we expect silver to start catching up—finally.”

Nenner thinks interest rates are still in a long-term trend up, but there can be pullbacks.
Nenner also thinks the US dollar is going to be okay and will not fall much more—for now.
By the way, Nenner says he is up 40% so far in 2025.
There is more in the 37-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with renowned cycle analyst and financial expert Charles Nenner for 4.22.25.