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  • #12,281
  • Apr 17, 2025 5:18am Apr 17, 2025 5:18am
Sell...and pending Buy
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Holy Betting Grail strategy
  • #12,282
  • Apr 17, 2025 5:35am Apr 17, 2025 5:35am
Quoting Luxyus
{quote} already priced in
Trends give direction, but surprises, sentiment, and technicals can override them. Watch ECB statements for tone and U.S. data for Dollar cues - those could flip the script fast.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #12,283
  • Apr 17, 2025 5:45am Apr 17, 2025 5:45am
Quoting GOR
{quote} Currently, I changed to range trading, with an eye on the B/S sides, {quote}
For now its like yesterday, narrow range within the range, 1.136, 1.1387, 27 pips,
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'In the clearing stands a boxer And a fighter by his trade..'
  • #12,284
  • Apr 17, 2025 7:40am Apr 17, 2025 7:40am
Quoting fxcontest
Sell...and pending Buy {image}
TP one by one and waiting pending Buy
Holy Betting Grail strategy
  • #12,285
  • Apr 17, 2025 8:08am Apr 17, 2025 8:08am
Quoting johncen
1340-50 remain supporting
poor bear unable to break below this area

with easter coming, may stuck in range trading.

happy easter all
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #12,286
  • Apr 17, 2025 10:41am Apr 17, 2025 10:41am
The ECB cut interest rates because they were concerned about the economy slowing down and problems happening globally. The ECB President, Lagarde, highlighted that there's a bigger risk of weaker growth in the Eurozone, partly because trade issues are affecting business spending and confidence.

After this decision, the value of the euro dropped quickly compared to the US dollar, reaching 1.1335. This drop happened because traders believed the ECB might take further actions to ease money conditions, which makes the euro less strong against the dollar.

The ECB also said that while inflation is moving towards their target, risks from world events and trade problems are still big worries for the Eurozone's economy.

In terms of the exchange rate movement, the EUR/USD pair failed to stay above a high point (1.1412/24) and dropped to test a lower level (around 1.1338). If it falls below this level, it suggests the euro might keep falling, possibly towards recent lows near 1.1300 or even lower.


Had a blast trading with everyone this week! I'll be back after Easter on Tuesday. Enjoy the weekend with loved ones! Happy Easter!


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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #12,287
  • Apr 18, 2025 4:10pm Apr 18, 2025 4:10pm
Week closing above 1300 1340-50 1392 bull still in charge
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #12,288
  • Apr 18, 2025 5:06pm Apr 18, 2025 5:06pm
I was patient this week, but WOW what an uneventful week for the most part after Wednesday.

We have two scenarios currently at play. Demand Zone 1.1398 - 1.1425 is right above closing Friday Price. Either this demand zone holds, or we have a break out with the current bullish trend price support to possibly retest highs. The following next weekly demand zone sits at around 1.152 & daily at around 1.149-1.152.

I am holding my guns ( HTF Trading) with my short 1.1425 entry ( First TP @ 1.124) & will add strategically as it rises, but very disappointed on how the US is handling so many things publicly & truly weakening the appeal of USD. Feels like a circus lately here. This week coming up will give me more insight on what do do longer term.

Bull Targets : 1.141, 1.1425, 1.145, 1.147, 1.152
Bear Targets: 1.1375, 1.3080, 1.24, 1.119, 1.114
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If 95% Of Traders Fail, Then Why Are You Doing The Same Thing They Are.
  • #12,289
  • Apr 18, 2025 7:04pm Apr 18, 2025 7:04pm
Quoting Fxgfitking
I was patient this week, but WOW what an uneventful week for the most part after Wednesday. We have two scenarios currently at play. Demand Zone 1.1398 - 1.1425 is right above closing Friday Price. Either this demand zone holds, or we have a break out with the current bullish trend price support to possibly retest highs. The following next weekly demand zone sits at around 1.152 & daily at around 1.149-1.152. I am holding my guns ( HTF Trading) with my short 1.1425 entry ( First TP @ 1.124) & will add strategically as it rises, but very disappointed...
very well said mate, range has been narrowed so break out is near.
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #12,290
  • Apr 19, 2025 10:59am Apr 19, 2025 10:59am
Quoting Fxgfitking
I am holding my guns ( HTF Trading) with my short 1.1425 entry ( First TP @ 1.124) & will add strategically as it rises, but very disappointed on how the US is handling so many things publicly & truly weakening the appeal of USD. Feels like a circus lately here. This week coming up will give me more insight on what do do longer term. Bull Targets : 1.141, 1.1425, 1.145, 1.147, 1.152 Bear Targets: 1.1375, 1.3080, 1.24, 1.119, 1.114 {image}
I agree, I am not a MAGA but nor am I a Trump hater, but things have not been handled properly relating to liberation day. I don’t think Bessant considered the flight from the Dollar when this plan was conceived. Things are lining up for a major situation. In my opinion the largest issue is the divergence between the DXY and the Bond yield, it is huge. Some things are required to be homeostatic and at some point this will correct. Either DXY goes up significantly or the Bond yield crashes. Which does not appear to be happening.

This not tariffs or China will destroy the US economy if it does not correct soon. The FED needs to do its job here. People and politicians have forgot what the true mandate of the central bank is, it's THE CENTRAL BANK. They hold the cash reserves to prop up the banks and the economy. In this situation the FED should step in and buy back Bonds to lower the yield, reducing debt while controlling rates, its not happening. This same scenario has happened before, it was called the Great Depression. The FED failed to step in then also.
Why go long...When you can go short!
  • #12,291
  • Apr 19, 2025 1:02pm Apr 19, 2025 1:02pm
Quoting Nazzcus
{quote} I agree, I am not a MAGA but nor am I a Trump hater, but things have not been handled properly relating to liberation day. I don’t think Bessant considered the flight from the Dollar when this plan was conceived. Things are lining up for a major situation. In my opinion the largest issue is the divergence between the DXY and the Bond yield, it is huge. Some things are required to be homeostatic and at some point this will correct. Either DXY goes up significantly or the Bond yield crashes. Which does not appear to be happening. This not...
Your post is well thought out and quite rational. I also agree that when it comes to the foundation of the economy...money... homostasis is greatly preferred over almost anything else. However, what needs to be factored in is that Trump wants to reorder world trade, and a weak USD is part of the plan. I say this because I have actually read a policy paper written by his Chair of the CEA, Miran, in Nov 2024 describing how to do this. The plan is actually called "The Mar-a-Lago Accords" and the policy paper is quite literally called "A Users Guide to Restructuring the Gobal Trading Order". You can read it here.
https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/doc...ing_System.pdf
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,292
  • Apr 19, 2025 8:22pm Apr 19, 2025 8:22pm
Quoting AaronWard
{quote} Your post is well thought out and quite rational. I also agree that when it comes to the foundation of the economy...money... homostasis is greatly preferred over almost anything else. However, what needs to be factored in is that Trump wants to reorder world trade, and a weak USD is part of the plan. I say this because I have actually read a policy paper written by his Chair of the CEA, Miran, in Nov 2024 describing how to do this. The plan is actually called "The Mar-a-Lago Accords" and the policy paper is quite literally called "A Users...
I am very familiar with the Mar A Lago Accord and the Hudson Bay strategy, and I agree with the plan. Perhaps I came across the wrong way, I am in favor of Trumps agenda to restructure the trade dynamics globally, and I get the true underlying plan to diminish our largest competitor. However, my point still remains that the bond yield posses an issue that was not planned for, which the Hudson Bay strategy covers.

“In 2025-2026, the yield spread of Treasury securities over other nations’ debt may narrow if the Fed continues its cutting cycle catching up to other central banks and the special factors boosting U.S. growth—like fiscal policy— further fade and U.S. growth converges down to the rest of the world’s. A declining-yield environment might make it more difficult for the dollar to rally to offset tariff hikes."

The Fed is not cutting, and this makes the same point I made, the dollar is not rallying yet the yield remains high. Not declining.

“If an expected change in currency values leads to large-scale outflows from the Treasury market, at a time of growing fiscal deficits and still-present inflation risk, it could cause long yields to rise. Because significant portions of the economy—like housing—are tied to the belly and long end of the yield curve, such a rise could have material adverse consequences.”

Exactly my point, we have large scale outflows and still stagnant inflation. High yields will destroy buying power regardless of interest rates.

“Essentially, the Fed will likely require guarantees of its independence to use short rates to achieve its inflation and employment mandates. This combination would effectively set a limit on the yield curve, not the absolute level of long rates.”

I think we can all agree this one isn’t happening.

“Should the Fed not help with a unilateral shift in currency policy, there is scope for greater volatility… Sharp increases in Treasury yields can lead to declines in the stock market. Therefore the Administration, in such an approach, is likely to move gradually, and start with very small increments of withholding. Small and slow movements would reduce volatility, but increase the amount of time it takes to find the right combination of interest rates and currency values for the Administration. Patience will be helpful.”

Thus why I said Liberation day was not handled appropriately, too much too fast and we are seeing the backlash.

“Despite any attempts at gradualism, the market may move sharply anyway; the hint of such a policy change could induce significant market moves without any need for actually implementing the policy. Such volatility risks spiking long yields as global investors rebalance out of USD assets. Without the assistance of the Fed in capping yields, or of foreign reserve holders terming out their debt, an Administration has fewer good options for intervention to stabilize yields.”

My point with the FED, they are rebalancing out of US assets yet the FED is not intervening to cap yields.

My original point, I am not against the plan, but we have to acknowledge the divergence between the DXY and bond yields. This must correct, or the plan fails. Trump wants the FED to lower funds rate but that is not the solution, the fed needs to intervein in the bond market or the whole thing falls apart.

Thank you for a good analysis and healthy debate.
Why go long...When you can go short!
  • #12,293
  • Edited Apr 20, 2025 7:30am Apr 19, 2025 9:48pm | Edited Apr 20, 2025 7:30am
It's a pleasure talking. I agree that "Liberation Day" (surprising how the term has suck) roll out was shocking. And yes, bond yields spiking sharply will put a serious crimp in the plan and possibly crash the global economy. We live in volatile times.

I doubt the Fed is on board with the plan which is why Trump is railing against them. Also, the plan has a basic contradiction. Sometimes it wants the dollar to rise to offset inflation and at others to drop to rebalance trade.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #12,294
  • Apr 20, 2025 2:58am Apr 20, 2025 2:58am
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  • #12,295
  • Apr 20, 2025 3:08am Apr 20, 2025 3:08am
Am going to be giving real calculated support and resistance point for EUR/USD daily.
This will be backed up with pictures, diagrams and figures for PP,R1,R2,R3,S1,S2,S3 for MONTHLY, WEEKLY DAILY AND 4HRS TIME FRAME.
Expect my update from tues morning
  • #12,296
  • Apr 20, 2025 5:14am Apr 20, 2025 5:14am
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  • #12,297
  • Apr 20, 2025 4:26pm Apr 20, 2025 4:26pm
Seems like bull is ready to fly and retest the high
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #12,298
  • Apr 20, 2025 4:39pm Apr 20, 2025 4:39pm
Quoting johncen
Seems like bull is ready to fly and retest the high

not so fast. it cannot go too far on low volume...
crush anytime soon
  • #12,299
  • Edited 5:22pm Apr 20, 2025 4:44pm | Edited 5:22pm
Quoting mortgagee
{quote} not so fast. it cannot go too far on low volume... crush anytime soon
1.1424 my gate, above 1.143 bull is likely to retest the high and 1.15

1.1392 providing support for now
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #12,300
  • Apr 20, 2025 5:35pm Apr 20, 2025 5:35pm
Quoting Adeex
Am going to be giving real calculated support and resistance point for EUR/USD daily. This will be backed up with pictures, diagrams and figures for PP,R1,R2,R3,S1,S2,S3 for MONTHLY, WEEKLY DAILY AND 4HRS TIME FRAME. Expect my update from tues morning
From my calculated support and resistance point.
Price has beaten daily resistance R3. 1.1422.
So the market might remain bullish for a while
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